Tarihtyng qaytalanatyn әdeti bar, әsirese ótkenning izderi sabaqsyz qalghan kezde. Ishki qayshylyqtar men syrtqy sayasattaghy qate esepter saldarynan kýiregen, bir kezderi qúdiretti derjava bolghan Kenes Odaghynyng taghdyry Reseyding bolashaghynyng ssenariyine ainaluy mýmkin jәne búl qaytalanudyng belgileri barghan sayyn aiqyn bola bastady.

Aughanstan men Ukraina – búl prosessti tezdetkish kýshter

1979 jyly KSRO Aughanstanda әskery operasiyasyn bastady. Ol kezdegi Kremli basshylary jyldam jeniske jәne jaghdaydy baqylaugha senimdi boldy. Alayda 10 jylgha juyq sozylghan soghys 12 mynnan astam kenes jauyngerining ómirin qidy. Búl jay ghana geosayasy avantura emes, búl tereng moralidyq jәne ekonomikalyq jenilis boldy.

Býginde Resey Ukrainagha qarsy keng auqymdy soghys jýrgizude. Qazirding ózinde qaza tapqan jәne jaralanghandar sany millionnan asty. Búl endi jergilikti qaqtyghys emes, qogham ýshin aqtauy qiyngha soghatyn úzaqqa sozylghan, qajyghan qyrghyn.

Sanksiyalar jәne oqshaulau

Aughanstandaghy intervensiya ýshin Kenes Odaghy halyqaralyq oqshaulanugha úshyrady. AQSh pen onyng odaqtastary ekonomikalyq shekteuler engizip, 1980 jyly Mәskeude ótken Olimpiadagha boykot jariyalady. Biraq sol jyldardaghy sanksiyalardyng auqymy Reseyge qarsy salynghan qazirgi shekteulermen salystyrghanda quatty emes.

2022 jyldan beri Resey 38 mynnan astam sanksiyagha úshyrady, búl Iran, Soltýstik Koreya jәne KSRO-nyng ózinen de kóp. Búl sharalar negizgi sektorlargha әser etti: energetika, bank isi, tehnologiya jәne eksport. Resey bayau, biraq sózsiz әlemdik naryqtargha, investisiyalar men tehnologiyalargha qol jetkizuden aiyrylyp, ekonomikalyq toqyraugha úshyrauda.

Múnay – qaru...

1980 jyldary Kenes Odaghynyng Aughanstandaghy әreketterine narazy Saud Arabiyasy múnay óndirudi kýrt arttyrdy. Nәtiyjesinde «qara altynnyn» baghasy qúldyrap, Kenes Odaghynyng negizgi tabys kózine qauip tóndi. Budjet jarylyp, tapshylyq ósip, energiya eksportyna tәueldi ekonomika qúldyrap jatty.

Býginde jaghday ainadaghyday derlik qaytalandy. OPEK+ karteline kiretin saudiyalyqtar óndiristi qaytadan úlghaytyp jatyr. Múnay baghasy tómendep, reseylik múnaydyng paydasy azayyp barady. Onyng ýstine, Mәskeu Ýndistan men Qytaygha múnay satugha mәjbýr bolghan jenildikterdi eskersek, kiris barghan sayyn simvoldyq sipatqa ie boluda.

Ishki parallelider

KSRO tek syrtqy qysymnan ghana ydyraghan joq. Onyng ishinde toqyrau, senzura, jemqorlyq pen ekonomikalyq tiyimsizdik óz әserin etti. Barlyq osy erekshelikter qazirgi Reseyde barghan sayyn aiqyn bola bastady: senzuranyng kýshengi, ómir sýru dengeyining tómendeui, «midyng aghyluy» jәne aimaqtyq narazylyqtyng ósui. Jaghday sol ruhta damy berse, biz tek kýte alamyz: Resey KSRO-nyng múrageri retinde óz jolyn qaytalauy mýmkin – kýireu jolyn.

Kiyeli kitapta myna sózder bar: «Bolghan nәrse bolady, al jasalghan nәrse oryndalady, kýn astynda jana eshtene joq».

Tarihtyng tikeley kóshirmeleri joq, biraq qaytalanatyn jaghdaylar barshylyq. Resey qauipti traektoriyada, ol KSRO-nyng ómir sýruindegi songhy jyldaryndaghy qorqynyshty jolyn qaytalap keledi. Kenes Odaghynyng taghdyry qaytalana ma, ol qogham men Resey biyligining qorytyndy jasay biluine baylanysty.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov,

tarih ghylymdarynyng kandidaty, S. Seyfullin atyndaghy Qazaq agrotehnikalyq zertteu uniyversiytetining dosenti

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