Juyq jyldary, óte-móte onymen AQSh arasyndaghy sauda soghysy bastalghaly beri, “Qytay qúldyrap barady”, “Qytay ekonomikasy daghdarystyng batpaghyna batuda”, “AQSh-tyng sauda soqqysy Qytaydy esengiretip tastady” syqyldy payymdaular men daqpyrttar kóbeyde. Aytsa aitqanday, songhy 30 jylda eki oryndy sanmen ósken Qytay ekonomikasy, jaqynghy jyldardan beri qarqynyn bәsendetip alghany belgili. 2019 jylghy 6 payyzdyq ósimge qanaghatpen qaraghan el, kelesi jylda 5 payyzdyq qarqyndy saqtay alar-almasyna bәs tige almay otyr. Áriyne, onyng sebepteri aluan týrli. 

Árqanday ekonomikanyng bir mezgil qarqyndy ósken song birte-birte “sabasyna týsetini” bar. Búl - ekonomikanyng zany. Qytay ekonomikasy da osynday bayyzdaytyn mezetine jetken synayly. Múnan syrt, mynaday faktorlardyng saldary da oghan yqpal etkeni de sózsiz.

30-40 jyldyq ekonomikalyq ósim Qytay túrghyndarynyng qaltalaryn qalyndatqany belgili. Búl óz kezeginde enbekaqynyng ósuine alyp keldi. Enbekaqynyng ósui Qytaygha investisiya saludyng eng qyzyq túsy — arzan júmyskýshke qoljetimdilikti mansúqtap, investisiyanyng ózindik qúnyng arttyryp jiberdi. Osydan keyin shetel investisiyasy júmyskýshi arzandau Vetnam, Bangladesh syndy elderge kete bastady. 2008 jylghy ontýstik-shyghys Aziya ekonomikasynyng daghdarysynyng keri әserinen basyn alyp qashu ýshin, Qytay ishki súranysty arttyrugha jýgindi, atap aitqanda, avto jәne temirjol tóseu, kópir salu, tunel qazu, úshqyr poyyz jasau syndy infraqúrylymgha trilliondap  investisiya saldy (2009 jyly bir jyldyng ózinde osy maqsattaghy investisiya birden 50%-ke ósken!). Osynyng ózi ekonomikany biraz jerge sýiredi. 10 jyldan song onyng da demigi basyldy. Osylaysha, ishki súranystyng sayabyrsuy ekonomika ósimining bәsendeuine alyp keldi. Tramptyng soqqysy da osal tiygen joq. Mysaly, 2018 jyly Qytaydyng eksport-import kólemi birden 28%-ke qúldyrap ketken. Biraq, múnyng barlyghy da obektivtik faktorlar bolatyn. 

Mәselening týpki mәni subektivti ynta-múratqa sayatyn edi. Qytaydyng eldegi “reformalau men syrtqa esigin ashqan” 40 jyldaghy jetistikterin ózining sosialistik týzim men naryq ekonomikasyn jandy úshtastyrghandyghynyng jemisi sanaytyny belgili. Tipti múny ózining tynnan sýren salghan, adamzat damuynyng kapitalizmnen bóten sara joly dep әspettep, “Qytay modeli”, “Qytay parasaty” dep aidarlap, әlemning damushy elderine belsendi úsynyp kele jatqany da bar.

Qytay biyligi, atap aitsaq QKP, 40 jyldaghy úlanqayyr tabystar sosialistik týzimning (jýienin) abzaldylyghynyng arqasy dep esepteydi. Damu men ilgerileuding alghy sharty da, kepili de osy sosialistik týzim, al naryqtyq qatynastar onyng kemeldenuining qúraly nemese tetikterining biri dep payymdaydy. Sondyqtan da, eldegi reforma bastalghannan 10 jyldan keyingi, reformalyq ýrdisterding ózi tuyndatqan zat baghasynyng kóterilui men tabystyng teng bólinbeuine narazylyqtargha (1989 jyl) naryqtyq qatynastar jazyqty tanylyp, reforma bir mezet toqtap ta qalghan (QKP organy «Halyq gazeti» naryq ekonomikasy degenimiz túp-tura jalpylyq menshikti joi, komrpartiya basshylyghyn joqqa shygharu, sosialistik týzimdi joqqa shygharu, kapitalizmdi jolgha qoi bolyp tabylady. 17.12.1990). QKP sol tústaghy tóraghasy Jyani Zemin jalpy reformanyng maqsatynyng ózi “sosialistik týzimning ózin ózi jetildirui men damytuy, jýiening týrli-týsti kinarattaryn sylyp tastap, onyng abzaldylyghyn jetkilikti pash etu bolyp tabylady” dep kórsetken-di (28.11.1990. reforma jetistigining jarqyn ýlgisi sanalghan Shen zjen (Shenzhen) erekshe aimaghanyng qúrylghandyghynyng 10 jyldyghyn atap ótu jinalysynda). Demek, Búl Qytaylyq reformanyng týbegeyli naryqqa — batystyq klassikalyq ýlgidegi naryqqa — niyettenbegendigin dәiekteydi.

1986 jyly “sayasy týzim reformalary men ekonomikalyq týzim reformalary ózara úshtasyp jýrgizilui kerek. Tek ekonomikalyq týzimdi reformalap, sayasy týzim reformalanbasa, ekonomikalyq reforma da dittegen jerine jete almaydy, óitkeni ol múndayda adamy sybektivtik faktorlardyng kedergisine úshyraytyn bolady” dep mәlimdegen “Qytay reformasynyng bas jobalaushysy atanghan Denning ózi, 1989 jyldyng kókteminde demokratiyalyq erkindik pen sayasy ózgerister talabymen shyqqan studentterding әreketin sosiyalistik jýiege tóngen qater sanap, ony janyshtaugha pәrmen bergen-di. 1993 jylghy QKP 14 sezd 3 plenumy elding ekonomikalyq jýiesining maqsaty naryqtyq ekononomika qúru dep jariyalaghanymen, ony sosialistik naryqtyq ekomika dep syipattaghan-dy. 

“Quyrdaqtyng kókesin týie soyghanda kóresin” demekshi, biylikke Shy Jinping (Xijinping) kelgeli beri Marksizm-Mao Szedon iydeologiyasyna qayta oralu men ony qúbylanama esebinde әspetteu dogmalyq soqyr senim dәrejesine kóterilip ketti. Maody dәripteu, partiyanyng elding barlyq tirlikterine bolghan basshylyghy men qadaghalauyn kýsheytudi nәsihattau, Dennyng ústanymdaryn ishinara teristeu, ekonomikanyng jeke sektoryna qyryn qarau, melekettik kәsiporyndargha aiyryqsha qoldau kórsetu nysayy beleng alyp barady. QKP 19 sezdining 4 plenumynda qabyldanghan “QKP-nyng Qytaylyq ózgeshelikke ie sosialistik týzimge tabandy túru men ony jetildiruge, memleketti basqaru jýiesi men basqaru әleuetin osyzamandandyrugha qatysty birqatar asa manyzdy mәseleler jayyndaghy sheshimi”: “Qytaylyq ózgeshelikke ie sosialistik týzimining partiya men halyqtyng úzaq uaqyttyq praktikalyq izdenisining arqasynda qalyptasqan ghylymy týzim jýiesi ekendigin” qadap kórsetip, onyng 13 abzaldylyghyn jipke tizip beredi.

Sonyng birinshisi “partiyanyng ortalyqtandyrylghan birynghay basshylyghyna tabandy túryp, memleketting bastan-aqyr sosialistik baghytta ilgerleuin qamtamasyzdandyruy” eken. Ámәliyatta, Tóragha Shy ózining aldynghy buyndaryna qaraghanda partiyanyng absolutti basshylyghyn barlyq salada, barlyq tirlikte, barlyq uaqytta, barlyq aumaqta kiriktirui men ornyqtyruyn aiyryqsha qadaghalauymen erekshelenedi (“partiya, ýkimet, armiya, qarapayym halyq, studentter men oqushylargha, otannyng ontýstik-soltýstigi men shyghys-batysyna, bәr-bәrine partiya basshylyq jasaydy”. Shy Jinpiyn: QKP 19 sezining bayandamasy).

Sheteldik sayasy sarapshylar búl jaghynan onyng Maodan asyp ketpese, kem týspesin jarysa baghalauda jәne múny Shiyding ózining jeke biyligin qamtamasyz etuining qamy túrghysynan qarastyruda. Nәtiyjede, Qytay biyligimen ilese býtin elding auqymy solshyl baghytqa jyldam auytqyp barady jәne onyng belgileri QKP-nyng sayasy sheshimderi men elding kýndelikti ómirinde jii kórinis berude. Shy basshylyghyndaghy QKP-nyn, partiyanyng ishki tәrtibin retteu men jónge keltirudi partiya basshylyghynyng absoluttigin qamtamasyzdandyrudyng alghy sharty dep esepteytindiginen, ilgeride bolyp kórmegen “partiyanyng ishki erejelerin bekituding bes jyldyq jospary” degen tújyrymdamanyng birinshi bes jyldyghyn aqyrlap (2016-2017j.j), ekinshi besjyldyghyna kirisip otyr (2018-2022j.j). Sәikesinshe, atalmysh taqyrypty zertteudi obekti etetin “partiya tәrtibin tanu” ilimi dýniyege keldi. Qazirshe 40-tan asa JOO-da partiya tәrtibin tanu ortalyqtary ashylyp, doktorlyq dәrejesine deyin ghylymy ataq beretin mamandyq payda boldy jәne búl songhy 3 jyldyng әngimesi!

2019 jyl 27 jeltoqsanda “sayasat pen biznesting qara jәshigi” sayyty “Shin jing gazetine” silteme jasap, Qytay komsomoldary ortalyq komiytetining “auyl-qystaqtardy kóteruge jastyq kóktemmen ese qosu sharasyn ilgeriley óristetu turaly ýndeu” degen qújatty jariyalady. Qújattyng talabyna say, 2022 jylgha deyin 10 mln student jastardy eriktiler formatymen auyldargha baryp, auyl-qystaqtardyng mәdeniyetin, ghylym-tehnikasyn, densaulyq salasyn kóteruge júmyldyru kózdelgen. Búl anau ghasyrdyng 60-jyldary Mao zamanynda jastardy әnbekke baulu úranymen auyldargha aidaudyng osyzamanghy núsqasy ispetti  (tóragha Shy tura osy nauqannyng týlegi-tin). Shy tóraghanyng sonau Maodyng batystyng sanksiyasyna qarsy kótergen “óz kýshimizge sýienip ómir sýremiz” deytin úran men kommunister sosializmning basymdylyghy sanaytyn “kýshti shoghyrlandyryp auqymdy isterdi enseru” syndy tújyrymdargha ýiir boluy da teginnen tegin emes-ti.

17 jeltoqsanda QHR bilim minstrligi saytynda әigili Fu dan, Nan jing uniyversiyteti, Shaan shy peduniyverstiytetining jarghylaryna ózgertuler engizu turaly sheshimi jariyalandy. Qytaydyng “memleketting orta jәne úzaq merzimdik bilimdi reformalau men damytudyng tújyrymdamasynda”: “әrqanday JOO aghymdaghy zandargha sәikes óz jarghylaryn jasaqtaulary, sol jarghynyng belgilemelerine say oqu orynyn basqarulary shart. Ghylymy erkindikti qúrmettep, tynysty ghylymy orta jasaqtaulary lazym” dep aiqyndalghanymen, Fu dan uniyversiyteti jarghysynyng ózgertilgen  núsqasynda “uniyversiytetting partiyanyng tútastay basshylyghyn qabyldauy”, “uniyversiytet partkomynyng uniyversiytet basshylyghynyng úiytqysy bolatyndyghy”, “uniyversiytetting bastan aqyr halyq mýddesine, QKP-nyng eldi basqaruyna, Qytaylyq ózgeshelikke ie sosialistik týzimdi nyghaytu men damytugha, reforma men esikti ashyq ústau jәne sosialistik osyzamandandyru qúrylysyna qyzmet etui” kerektigi engizilipti. Kerisinshe, búrynghy jarghydaghy “oy erkindigi”, “bilim ordasyn oqytushy-studentter biyleu, ony demokratiyalyq basqaru”, “uniyversiytet - ghylymdy ózek etetin qauymdastyq” synayly mazmúndar alynyp tastalghan.

Qytaylyq daghdygha salynsa, búl ýrdisting osy atalghan JOO-ymen toqyrap qalmasy anyq. QKP-nyng 19-sezi bayandamasynda: “jalpylyq menshikti qaltqysyz ornyqtyru jәne damytumen qatar, basqa menshik týrlerin qapysyz yntalandyru, qoldau, baghyttau, týrli resurstardyng ornalasuynda naryqqa sheshushi ról oinatqyzu” atap kórsetilgenine qaramastan, praktika songhy jyldary biylikting memlekettik menshikke aiyryqsha ynta tanytyp, ózge menshik subektilerine qyryn qaray bastaghandyghyn (qarjylandyru, salyq, nesiyeleu, naryqqa kiru, t.s. jaqtarda) dәleldep berude. 18 sezden keyin-aq memlekettik kәsiporyndarynyng egdelep, jeke sektordyng sheginui ýrdiske ainalyp, qoghamda qatty talqygha týsude. Múnyng ózi JIÓ-ning 70%-yna juyghyn berip otyrghan sektorgha soqqy, ekonomikalyq ósimning qúldyrauyna jyghylghangha júdyryq bolyp tiyip otyr. 

Ayta beruge sóz kóp, dәlel de jetip artylady. Qoryta kelgende, Shy basshylyghyndaghy QKP songhy 40 jylda jetken jetistikterining elding ghalamdyq naryqqa kirip, ózge memlekettermen barys-kelis, alym-berim jasauynyn, ishki ekonomikada naryqtyq qatynastardy engizuding nәtiyjesi ekendigin teristep, Den salyp ketken pragmatizm jolynan tayqyp, sosialistik iydeologiyagha tizgin berip, eldi әlemdik ilgerileuding ýrdisinen bóten baghytqa alyp barady. Osyzamandanu men reformalaudyng jemisin endi kóre bergen Qytay halqy ýshin múny keri ketu dep baghalamasqa amal joq...

Múqamethan Qonarbay

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