Jyl ayaqtaugha az qalghanda Qytay aqparat qúraldary «ýshinshi balany» dýniyege alyp keluge rúqsat berilgenin jarysa jazdy. Tipti, keybir mediyalar qyzdy-qyzdymen qashanda atoylap alda jýretin kommunister men komsomaldar búl nauqanda óz belsendiligi men kóshbasshylyghyn kórsetiui kerek dep, úsynysyn әjuamen jetkizdi.  Qytay qoghamynda túrghyn ýi, densaulyq, bala tәrbiyesi biznes kózine ainalyp, qarapayym adamdar ýshin qaltasy kótermeytin, birneshe úrpaq boyy tabanynan tausylyp, taryghatyn mehnatqa ainalyp ketkeli qashan?..

2021 jyly mausym aiynyng 11-i kýni Qytay memlekettik sanaq mekemesi býkil qytaylyq jetinshi retki sanaqtyng qortyndy nәtiyjesin biraz kidiristen keyin baryp jariyalady. Osy sanaqta jalpy Qytaydyng jan sany 1 mlrd  411 million bolghany anyqtaldy. Búl sifrgha batys sarapshylary kýdik keltirse de, resmy memlekettik organnyng mәlimeti sanalyp, Qytay qoghamynyng da, halyqaralyq baqylaushylardyng da biraz әngimesining túzdyghy bolghany ras. Osy sanaqqa negizdelsek, Qytay qoghamynda qartay prosessi men tabighy ósimning azayghany aiqyn bayqalady.

Bala tuu 1,3%-dy, tabighy ósim 3%-dy qanaghat qylghan. Tabighy ósim sharyqtap túrghan kezde 20%-dy qúrasa, jayshylyqta on payyzdan joghary bolyp kelgen. Al 3% degenimiz óte tómen kórsetkish. Statistika zandylyghy boyynsha bir memleketting tabighy ósimi 2,5%-dan tómendese búl elding jan sany kóbeymeydi, azayyp ta qalmaydy, bir orynda túryp qalady. Eger 1,8 payyzgha deyin tómendese bolashaqta ýrdis qúldyrau jolyna týsedi. Búghan bala tuu kórsetkishining 1,3 payyzga deyin tómendegenin eske alsanyz, 2100 jylgha barghanda kórshimizding jan sany 670 miliondy qanaghat tútuy mýmkin. Birikken últtar úiymynyng mejeleuinshe, osy ghasyr shymyldyghyn japqanda adamzattyng jan sany 11 milliardqa jetiui mýmkin. Sol kezde qazirding ózinde jan sany 1 milliard 380 miliongha iyek artqan Ýndistan 1 milliard 600 miliongha baryp, 2100 jyldary sәl sayabyrlap, 1 milliard 400 miliongha túraqtauy mýmkin. Tabighy ósimmen birge Aziya, Afrika, Latyn Amerika elderinen keletin joghary bilimdi migranttarmen jyl sayyn tolyghyp jatqan AQSh ghasyr ayaghynda 430 miliongha erkin jetip, әlem tarihynda ýsh alyp el iyq tirestirip, baq talastyryp, kýsh synasady. Búl kezde ótken ghasyrlarda tarih sahnasynan shegingen aghylshyn, osmanly imperiyalary siyaqty Sovet imperiyasy da «imperiya molasy» atanghan Aughanstannan qansyrap shyqqan boyy, beti beri qaramastan, kýirep tynady. Qazirgi múrageri Reseyding jalpy ishki ónimi Qytaydyng tenizge jaqyn ólkesi Guandungha da jetpeydi. Ekonomister memleket jan sanynyng qartangy, dýniyege keler nәrestelerding azangy sol elding ekonomikasynyng damuyna әser etetin manyzdy faktorlardyng biri ekendigin aityp jatyr. Ótken ghasyrdyng sekseninshi jyldarynan bastap Japoniya osy jaghydaydy bastan keshirip, әli esin jiya almay keledi.

Al, bolashaq әlemge yqpalyn kýsheytip, qojalyqqa talasar atalmysh ýsh elge toqtalar bolsaq, AQSh jalpy ishki ónimdegi  4%-dyq ósimdi saqtay otyryp, bir qalypty damysa, tipti, aralyqta 1%, 2%-gha týsse de, 2100 jylgha kelgende jalpy ishki ónimi adam basyna shaqqanda 110 myng AQSh dollaryn qúraydy. Qytay da qazirgi túraqtylyghyn saqtay otyryp, damysa atalmysh uaqytta jalpy ishki ónimi adam basyna shaqqanda 41 myng AQSh dollaryna jetui mýmkin. Ýndistanyng qazirgi ishki ónimi adam basyna shaqqanda 2 myng AQSh dollary shamasynda. Biraq bolashaqta birshama jogharghy qarqynmen, yaghny 6%-ben damy otyryp, 2100 jyldary jalpy ishki ónimi 28 myng AQSh dollaryna jetui mýmkin.

Alayda sarapshylar Qytay ýshin әli de birshama qaterler mol ekenin aitady. Áueli AQSh bastaghan Batys elderining sayasi-ekonomikalyq qysymy tóragha Sy ortagha qoyghan eki ghasyr jobasyn, yaghny kompartiyanyng ghasyrlyq mereytoyynan keyin keletin respublikanyng ghasyrlyq mereytoyyna tartu retinde 2049 jyly iske asatyn til, din, territoriya tolyq tútastanatyn qúdiretti el qúru syndy «Qytay armany» tolyqtay iske asyra alady ma? Sauda soghysynan bastalyp, ózara konsuldyqtaryn jabugha deyin barghan bәseke, ereges shiyelenisip, endi Pekin qysqy olimpiadasyna boykot jariyalaugha úlasyp bara jatqan siyaqty. Ishki jaqta úighyr, tiybet, monghol siyaqty sany az últtar mәselesi halyqaralyq daugha ainaluy, bay men kedeyding arasyndaghy jikting alshaqtay týsui, reforma men ótkenge oralu arasyndaghy kýresting ushyghuy, ónir arasyndaghy ekonomikalyq tepe-tendikting búzyluy, mýddeli klandar arasyndaghy tay-talastyng órshui, kompartiyanyng qatang avtoritarlyq biyligi men yqpalyna әser etude. Qazirgi kompartiyanyng ózi de Mao zamanyndaghyday tastýiin, bir júdyryq emes, jerine, kózqarasyna qaray qyzyl bekzadalar, komsomoldar bolyp birneshe topqa bólinip ketken. Korey, Japoniya, Fransiyadaghy jaghday qaytalansa, Qytaydyng jalpy jan sany 400 milliongha deyin tómendep ketui ghajap emes. Onday jaghday tua qalsa, zәulim ýiler bos qalyp, «shaytan qalalar» kóbeyedi. Bazarlar men supermarketter qanyrap qalady. Órmekshining torynday bolghan avtobandar men joghary qarqyndy temirjoldardy iygiliktenetin adam azayady. Osy ghasyrdyng basynan bastap megapolis qalalarda Dink otbasyn qúru jastar arasynda modagha ainaldy, múnyng zardabyn Qytay bolashaqta kóredi.

Qytay halyq respublikasy qúrylghanda jalpy Qytaydyng jan sany 400 million shamasynda edi, sol merekeli qonaqsyda Shynjannan barghan ónerpazdar qazaqtyng «aygólek» biyin biylep sahnagha shyqqanda aqyndyghy men filosoftyghy qatar jýrgen tóragha Mao shabyttanyp: «...400 million halqymyz qosa almaghan bastaryn», dep arnau jazady. Kompartiyanyng dara biyligi absolutti, tynyshtyq salystyrmaly týrde ornaghan sol otyz jylda Qytay halqynyng jan sany eki ese ósti. Endi jetpis jylda sol ósken úrpaq tolyqtay ótkenge ainalady. Sol kezdegi statistika boyynsha Qytay territoriyasynyng basym bóligin qúraytyn sany az últtardyng eldegi ýles salmaghy 4%-dy qúraydy dep aitylatyn, al biylghy sanaqta olardyng ýles salmaghy 8,89%-dy qúraghany ósu kórsetkishi jaghynan sany az últtar 10,26%-gha jetse, taza Qytaylardyng ósu kórsetkishi 4,93%-dy qanaghat tútqany tirkeldi. Áriyne «kóp qortytady, tereng batyrady» degendey mәnjýr, juangzu qatarly últtar búl kýnde aty ghana bolmasa, zaty әldeqashan jonghua últynyng birine ainalypgh kirigip ketkeni jasyryn emes. Din men tilge iyek artyp, avtonomiya kóshine ilinip-salynyp ilesip kele jatqan tiybet, úighyr, monghol, dýngen, qazaq siyaqty últtardyng taghdyry men tandauy әli talay halyqaralyq oiyndardyng jýrisine ainalyp, Batys pen Shyghystyng teke-tiresinde әrkimning qolyna ústar kózerine ainalary sózsiz.

Jan sany mol, ekonomikasy gharyshtap damyghan, tehnogoliyasy әlemdi moyyndatqan nemese moyyndata bastaghan ýsh derjava әliden bәsekeden teke-tireske ótti. AQSh-tyng jaghdayyn әlginde aittyq, al Ýndistanmen bolghan shekara janjaly birneshe jyldan beri shiyelenise týsti. Osy jazda adam shyghyny da boldy. 1962 jyly shekara týbindegi soghysta sol kezdegi Qytaydyng qorghanys ministiri marshall Lin Biyau soghysqa tikeley qolbasshylyq etip, 1840 jyly 8 memleket armiyasynyng qúramynda Pekinge basyp kirip, han sarayyn órtep, talan-taraj jasaghan Ýndistannyng biregey diviyaziyasyn sol soghysta tútqyn qaldyrmay tolyqtay joyghanyn jariyalaghan. Biylghy teke-tires aqparattyq soghysqa ainalghanda Konfusiydyng úrpaqtary Buddanyng tabynushylaryna sol oqighany eskertti. Olarda qarap qalghan joq, býgingi soghys aqparat pen tehnikanyng soghysy ekenin, keshegi Ýndistan men býginshi Ýndistannyng arasynda jer men kóktey paryq bar ekenin atap aitty. Ýndining ógizining mýiizi syrqyrasa, soltýstikting angy bal terip, tabanyn jalap jatpaytynyn ymmen jetkizdi. Ýndistandy panalap jýrgen sýrgindegi tiybetting jasaqtary da tóbe kórsetti.

Búl kýnde ýsh alyptyng mýddesi Aughanstanda toqaylasyp jatyr. Aughandy tastap shyqqan AQSh eki alyptyng oiynyn tamashalay ma, әlde óz rólin basqaday somdaydy ma? Jauabyn uaqyt berer.

Omarәli Ábildekúly

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