Týrkimenstan astanasy Ashhabadta ótken TMD Memleket basshylary kenesining sammiytinde Iran Preziydenti Masud Pezeshkiannyng «TMD+1» formatyn qúru turaly bastamasy — keyingi jyldary postkenestik kenistik tónireginde oryn alghan eng manyzdy geosayasy janalyqtardyng biri. Pezeshkiannyng búl sammitke arnayy qonaq retinde qatysqan alghashqy Iran liyderi boluynyng ózi Ortalyq Euraziyadaghy kýshter balansynyng qayta qaralyp jatqanyn anghartady.

TEGERANNYNG STRATEGIYaLYQ ESEBI

Irannyng TMD siyaqty ónirlik úiymmen jaqyndasu úmtylysy kezdeysoq emes. Búl — ýsh negizgi faktordan tuyndaghan qajettilik:

«Soltýstik vektordyn» basymdyghy: AQSh-taghy Donalid Tramp әkimshiligining Irangha baghyttalghan ekonomikalyq әri әskeriy-sayasy qysymy kýsheygen tústa Tegeran Batys institusiyalarynan tys balama izdeuge mәjbýr.

Kópvektorly aimaqtyq diplomatiya: Iran bughan deyin ShYÚ (Shanhay yntymaqtastyq úiymy) men BRICS-ke tolyqqandy mýshe bolyp ýlgerdi. Endigi kezekte ol ózining tikeley kórshileri ornalasqan, búryn «Reseyding yqpal etu aimaghy» sanalghan postkenestik kenistiktegi pozisiyasyn bekitkisi keledi.

Qauipsizdik beldeuin qúru: Tayau Shyghystaghy (Izraili men Iran arasyndaghy, sonday-ash AQSh-tyng Iran tóniregindegi belsendiligi) eskalasiya jaghdayynda Tegeran óz soghys órtin búghattau ýshin soltýstik shekaralary boyynda beytarap nemese seriktes memleketterding túraqty beldeuin qalyptastyrudy kózdeydi.

«ENERGETIKALYQ HAB» JÁNE LOGISTIKA

Pezeshkiannyng sózindegi eng basty praktikalyq úsynys — Blijniy Vostokty (Jaqyng Shyghysty) óndiris, tasymaldau jәne energiya almasu jelisine ainaldyru. Múnyng artynda ýlken ekonomikalyq mýddeler jatyr:

Resey men Ortalyq Aziya múnay, gaz, elektr eksporttau ýshin Irannyng Parsy shyghanaghy / Ýndi múhity / Jaqyn Shyghys naryghyndaghy әbden qalyptasqan infraqúrylymdaryn paydalanyp qalu AQSh qansha baybalamgha salghanymen óz nәtiyjesin bermek.

ENERGETIKALYQ SWAP OPERASIYaLARY

Resey, Qazaqstan jәne Týrkimenstan — iri energetikalyq derjavalar. Iran ózining soltýstik provinsiyalaryn gazdandyru men elektrlendiru ýshin TMD elderinen resurstar alyp, ornyna búl elderding atynan Parsy shyghanaghyndaghy óz porttary arqyly әlemdik naryqqa múnay men gaz tasymaldap bere alady (SWAP shemasy).

«SOLTÝSTIK — ONTÝSTIK» HALYQARALYQ KÓLIK DÁLIZI (INSTC)

Búl jobanyng negizgi kýretamyry — Reseyden bastalyp, Kaspiy tenizi nemese Ortalyq Aziya (Qazaqstan-Týrkimenstan) arqyly Iran porttaryna (Chabahar, Bender-Abbas), ary qaray Ýndistan men Ontýstik-Shyghys Aziyagha shyghu. «TMD+1» formaty búl logistikalyq tizbekting kedendik jәne tariftik kedergilerin joigha mýmkindik beredi.

Iran búl oraydaghy negizgi mýddesi oqshaulanudy (izolyasiyany) búzu, Soltýstik kórshilermen saudany arttyru, Ónirlik derjava mәrtebesin bekitu bolghanymen aldymyzdan aitalap shyghady. Yqtimal tәuekeldikte joq emes. Atap aitar bolsaq – TMD ishindegi Batysshyl elderding qarsylyghy, Tramp sanksiyalarynyng qysymy.

TMD noqta aghasy bolyp tabylatyn Reseyding búl jaghdaydaghy negizgi mýddesi Batys sanksiyalaryn ainalyp ótetin ontýstik marshrut ashyp,  Antibatystyq koalisiyanyng ayasyn keneytu ekendigi de әmbege ayan.

Ortalyq Aziya (onyng ishinde Qazaqstan, Ózbekstan, Týrkimenstan) negizgi mýddeleri AQSh biyligi tiyip túrghan irgesindegi múhiytqa shyghatyn eng qysqa tóte joldy jauyp tastauynan qútylu ýshin Reseyding sharasyzdyghyn paydalanyp qalyp, óz eli avrqyly dәliz asha otyryp,  Iran naryghyna eksportty arttyrudy sәtimen paydalana alu. Osy joldaghy hәm qadamdaghy  Yqtimal tәuekelderi Ekinshi dengeyli (secondary) AQSh sanksiyalaryna iligu qaupi bolyp tabalatyndyghyn da este ústaugha tiiyispiz.

ORTALYQ AZIYa MEN QAZAQSTAN ÝShIN MANYZY

Qazaqstan men kórshiles elder ýshin Tegerannyng búl qadamy ekiúday әserge iye:

1. Qazaqstan-Týrkimenstan-Iran temirjoly búrynghydan da ózekti bola týsedi. Astana ýshin Parsy shyghanaghy arqyly Tayau Shyghys pen Ýndistan naryghyna shyghu — tenizge shygha almaytyn (landlocked) el ýshin strategiyalyq jenis.

2.Astana men Tashkent batystyq investorlarmen jәne AQSh-pen de jaqsy qarym-qatynasta. Donalid Tramp әkimshiligi Tegerangha qatysty qatang pozisiya ústanyp otyrghanda, Iranmen tym jaqyn sayasy blok qúru Ortalyq Aziya elderine «ekinshi dengeyli sanksiyalar» qaupin tóndirui mýmkin. Sol sebepti Ortalyq Aziya búl formatty sayasy emes, tek ekonomikalyq-pragmatikalyq shenberde ústaugha tyrysady.

TOSQAUYLDAR MEN SSENARIYLER

«TMD+1» formatynyng qanshalyqty ómirsheng bolatyny ýsh negizgi kedergining qalay sheshiletinine baylanysty:

TMD búrynghyday birtútas úiym emes. Moldova shyghu prosesin bastady, Armeniya Reseymen qarym-qatynasyn suytyp jatyr. Múnday ishtey ydyrap jatqan qúrylymgha syrttan oiynshy qosu onyng tiyimdiligin arttyra ma degen súraq ashyq.

Tegeran men Baku arasyndaghy geosayasy teketires (Armeniya faktory jәne Zangezur dәlizi tóniregindegi dau) TMD shenberindegi sheshimderding birauyzdan qabyldanuyn qiyndatady.

Tramp әkimshiligining Irangha qarsy sayasaty men Tayau Shyghystaghy soghys barysy Teherannyng aimaqtyq bastamalardy qarjylandyru jәne jýzege asyru mýmkindigin shekteui mýmkin.

Sóz týiini: Masud Pezeshkian úsynghan «TMD+1» bastamasy — Teherannyng Euraziyalyq materiktegi geosayasy dekúrylymdardy óz paydasyna qayta qúrugha baghyttalghan strategiyalyq qadamy. Búl format tolyqqandy sayasy odaqqa ainala qoymaghanymen, transport, logistika jәne energetika salasyndaghy tar shenberdegi pragmatikalyq jobalardy jýzege asyrudyng tiyimdi alanyna ainala alady. TMD elderi ýshin eng basty mindet — Iran úsynghan ekonomikalyq mýmkindikterdi paydalana otyryp, Batystyng sanksiyalyq soqqysyna jyghylyp ketpeuding arajigin teng ústau.

Ábil-Serik Áliakbar

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