Býgingi súhbattasym – elge tanymal sayasattanushy Rasul Júmalymen elde bolyp jatqan songhy sayasy oqighalar tónireginde oy bólisken edim. Eger osy tónirektegi әngimege oy qosam deushi tanymal sayasy túlghalar ynta tanytsa, «DAT!» aidary ayasyndaghy qos paraqty úsynugha dayynbyz.

– Resey preziydenti Vladimir Putin TMD elderi arasynda qarjylyq esep aiyrysu sayasatynda dollardy yghystyru maqsatyn kózdeytin zang jobasyn Memlekettik dumagha tapsyrdy. Tәuelsiz memleketter ýshin qysym sanalatyn Putinning búl pighylyn siz qalay baghalaysyz?

– Búl mәseleni Resey ekonomikasynyng daghdarys jaghdayynda qúldyrap bara jatqanynyng belgisi dep qabyldaghan jón. Belgili bir dәrejede útymdy sheshim tappaghan son, Reseyding preziydent әkimshiligi, Kremli osynday aghattyqqa úryndyratyn sharalargha baruda, kýii kelgenshe Batys memleketterine qyr kórsetu ýshin ózining sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq dengeyin saqtap qalugha tyrysu әreketining zardaby reseylikterding ózine qiyndyq tughyzary anyq. Songhy bir-eki jyldyng barysynda rubli baghamynyng qúldyrap, múnay baghasynyng arzandauy, ekonomikanyng resessiyagha úshyrauyna qatysty, reseylik ekonomisterding payymdauynsha, minus 3 payyzgha kemui búryn-sondy bolmaghan jaghday. Putindik preziydent әkimshiligining lajy bolmaghandyqtan, bir qatelikten ekinshisine úrynuda. Al dollardy nemese eurony yghystyryp shygharam degen dalbasa әreketterinen týk shyqpasy belgili. Ózining rubline degen senimi bolmay jatqan kezende, dýniyeni jaulap alghan dollarmen alysu – onay-ospaq sharua emes.

Putinning osy pighyly ong sheshimge bastay qoymas, tek el túrghyndaryn sansyratary sózsiz. Dәl osy solaqay sayasatyn jalghastyra beretin bolsa, Reseyding ekonomikalyq-qarjylyq mәselesi ushyghyp, әleumettik jaghdaygha zalalyn tiygizedi. Ókinishtisi – osy jaghdaydyng kesiri ózine ghana emes, kórshi memleketterge de әser etip, eng aldymen Kremlige «ishek-qarny» baylanyp qalghan Qazaqstandy da tyghyryqqa tyghuda.

– Degenmen, ózine kórshiles Qazaqstandaghy qarjylyq-ekonomikalyq daghdarysty óz esebine paydalanghan Resey biyligi ortaq valuta engizu sayasatyn jedeldetuge kiriskenin bilesiz. Bizdegi qazirgi qújyragha qúlaghan ekonomikalyq daghdarys jaghdayynda Qazaqstan biyligi imperiyalyq pighyldaghy Reseyding jetegine erip ketui mýmkin be? Mәselen, Aqorda biyligi budjetti toltyru ýshin, Qazaqstan azamattaryna jana jylgha deyin tólqújat auystyru qajet dep, baybalam salyp jatyr. Al eski tólqújatty janasyna auystyru qúny tórt myng tengege týsedi. Elde 16 jastan asqan halyqtyng sany mólshermen 10 million dep alar bolsaq, búl «nauqannyn» nәtiyjesinde jyl ayaghyna deyin budjet 40 milliard tengege tolysuy kerek eken... Degenmen, mening súraghym – daghdarysta daghdarghan Aqorda biyligi qiynshylyqtan qútyludyng maqsatymen Kremliding jeteginde kete me degen oqys oigha jauap izdeu edi ghoy?

– Reseyding jeteginde tanauyn tesken tanaday tapyraqtap jýrgenimiz qasha-a-an?! Osydan 4–5 jyl búryn Kedendik odaqqa mýshe bolghan kezden bastap, kórshining «qorasyna» kirip, jetekke kónetinimiz belgili bolghan. Býgin «jemisin» jep, sayasat, ekonomika, qarjy mәselesi boyynsha tәueldi kýy keshuge mәjbýrlikke úryndyq. Eng bir qiyn jaghday – Kremli teng dәrejedegi yntymaqtastyqty, órkeniyetti integrasiyany qúlaqtaryna da qystyrmaytyny. Olardyng payymyndaghy әriptestik – búrynghy Kenes Odaghyn qalpyna keltirip, bodandyqtan arylghan memleketterdi qaytadan bir uysyna qysyp ústau.

Songhy kezde «tәuelsizdik» degen úghymnyng qadirine jetpegen, jeke dara damu jolynda әlsizdik tanytqan búrynghy kenestik respublikalar qaytadan Reseyding qyspaghyna týse bastady. Mәselen, Qazaqstan ekonomikasy, últtyq valutasy – tenge rublige, al otandyq tauar óndirisi – Reseyden keletin importqa tәueldi bolyp qaldy. Reseyding kózdegeni – tek ekonomikalyq tәueldilikpen shektelmeydi, maqsaty – Kenestik Odaqty qaytadan qalpyna keltiru. Sayasi, qarjylyq, iydeologiyalyq mәseleni de kózden tasa etpey, uysynda ústap otyrghany da barshagha ayan.

Ortaq valuta ýshin tәuelsizdigimizding alghy sharty bolyp tabylatyn tól tengeden bas tartsaq, qanday el bolghanymyz? Demek, Aqorda biyligi jetekke erip kete berer bolsa, Reseyding bir guberniyasyna ainalu qaupi tónip túr deuimizge әbden bolady. Eng soraqysy – tengege qatysty ýkimet pen Últtyq bankting jýrgizip otyrghan sayasaty: olar Reseyding shovinistik-imperialistik әreketining ýstemdik etuin belgili bir dәrejede qoldap otyrghan siyaqty. Sebebi – tengening qayta-qayta qúnsyzdanyp, devalivasiyagha úshyrauy, tengege degen el azamattarynyng senimin ayaq asty etip, Qazaqstan ýkimeti onyng ornyna jana valutany úsynudy kózdeytin synayly.

Mәselen, Kremlide «altyn» turaly sóz bolghanda, Aqorda tarapynan tyrs etken resmy jauap bolmady. Sondyqtan qazaqstandyq biylik qoghamnyng sana-sezimin osy «ortaq valutagha» qaray búru jәne halyqty oghan aldyn ala dayyndau әreketterine kiristi deuge bolady.

Al putindik orys – «ortaq valutamen» ghana shektele qoymasy belgili, kele-kele ortaq sayasy qúrylymdar: «ortaq parlament», «ortaq әsker», «ortaq polisiya», «ortaq bank», «ortaq aqparattyq kenistik»... jasaqtau jóninde úsynys jasalady. Oghan kýmәn bolmasyn!

– Áytse de, «batyrgha da jan kerek» degendey, Qazaqstan biyligi halyqtyng mýmkin bolar qaharyna úshyraudan qaymyghuy tiyis qoy. Qazaqstan tәuelsizdigine qauip tóndiretin EAEO elderi ýshin ortaq valuta – «altyn» ba, basqa ma – ainalymgha engizilgen jaghdayda, Núrsúltan Nazarbaev jeke dara sheshim shygharyp, tarihtaghy atyn qara kýiege bylghamas degen ýmit bar. «Ortaq valutagha» barar bolsa, býkilhalyqtyq referendum ótkizu qajet bolmay ma?

– Memleketting tәuelsizdigine qatysy bar mәselede – integrasiyalyq odaqtastyqqa enu, «ortaq valutany» qabyldau nemese qabyldamau – mindetti týrde halyqaralyq zandardyng tәjiriybesine sýiene otyryp, ózimizding Ata zanymyzda belgilengen tәrtippen referendum arqyly sheshilui tiyis. Europa elderi kezinde ortaq valuta – eurogha ótu ýshin, әrbir memleket jeke dara referendum ótkizdi. Osy memleketter Euroodaqqa mýshelikke kiru ýshin de, әrqaysysy halqymen kenesip, mәseleni talqygha salyp, referendum arqyly sheshim qabyldaghan.

Al, Qazaqstanda keraghar sayasat jýrgizilip kele jatqany bәrimizge mәlim: biylik el-júrtynyng pikirine qúlaq aspady, Kedendik odaqqa da, Euraziyalyq odaqqa da óz ishinde ymyra sheshim qabyldau arqyly mýshe bolyp shygha keldi. Qogham ókilderi san aluan jiyn men dóngelek ýstel ótkizip, odaqtasudyng opa bermeytinin, tipti referendum ótkizu kerektigi jónindegi úsynystaryna mәn bergen biylik bolmady. «Ortaq valutagha» bayylanysty da halyqpen keneskisi kelip túrghan biylikti bayqap otyrghan joqpyn: Aqorda ózi biledi, ózi sheshedi, halyq – qoralaghan mal siyaqty. Tipti atalmysh odaqtargha kirgen kezdegi qújattardyng mәtinin de jariya etken joq. Qazaqstan moynyna qanday mindetterdi jýktedi, qanday qaterge tap boldy – odan el-júrt habarsyz.

Meyli, tipti, referendum ótkizdik delik: onyng әdil ótetinine kim kepildik beredi? Biylikting uysyndaghy zannamalyq negizder halyqtyng úsynysyn, talabyn eskere me? Halyqtyng «ortaq valutagha» degen on-teris pikiri qara qyldy qaq jarghanday әdil kórsetile me? Mine, referendum nәtiyjesine degen kýdik osynday saualdardan taraydy.

 – Endeshe eldegi ekonomikalyq daghdarystyng sayasy astaryna da ýnile keteyik, Rasul myrza. Mysaly ýshin, tәuelsiz ekonomisterding pikirine qaraghanda, әlemde aitarlyqtay ekonomikalyq daghdarys joq. Daghdarys – múnaydyng әlemdik baghasynyng qúldyrauyna ghana baylanysty. Ekonomikasyna múnaydyng týsimi әser etpeytin elderde Resey men Qazaqstandaghy siyaqty baybalam bayqalmaydy. Sebebi – damyghan memleketterde Ishki jalpy ónim elding ishki ekonomikalyq týsimi esebinen qúralady. Bizdegi IJO negizinen múnay men gazdyng jәne syrtqa shygharylatyn tau-ken shiykizatynyng týsimi esebinen tolyghady. Al osy jaghdayda budjeti múnay baghasyna baylanghan Reseyding qosaghyndaghy Qazaqstandaghy daghdarys 2018 jylgha deyin sozylady degen boljamdy Nazarbaevtyng ózi jasap otyr. Búghan deyin eshqanday daghdarysty moyyndamay kelgen, «biz ýdemeli damu ýstindegi elmiz» degen Nazarbaevtyng múnday pessimistik tújyrym jasau sebebi nede dep oilaysyz?

– Qalay desek te, daghdarys әlemdik ekonomikany sharpyp ótkenin joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Biraq әr memleketting ekonomikalyq әleueti әr aluan bolghandyqtan, daghdarystyng әseri men zardaby naryq zandylyghyna say әrkelki boldy. Áleueti men mýmkindigi bay, ekonomikasy әrtaraptandyrylghan elder ol daghdarys kezinde mynq etpedi. Sauatty әri syndarly sayasat jýrgizetin memleketterde daghdarystyng әseri halqyna zardap tiygizgen joq. Mәselen, Resey ekonomikasynyng biylghy dengeyi minus ýsh payyzdy kórsetse, Qazaqstanda –1 payyzdy kórsetedi degen boljam jasalghan edi: biraq songhy devalivasiyadan keyin búl kórsetkish birneshe payyzgha ósui yqtimal.

Dәl osy daghdarys jaghdayynda Europa memleketerinde ekonomikalyq ósim 4–5 payyzgha artyp, Qytayda ol kórsetkish 5–7 payyzgha ósui – búl elderdegi ekonomika túraqty damu ýstinde degen tújyrymgha tirek bolady. Álemdik bәsekelestikke qabiletti elderde otandyq óndiris damyp, jemqorlyqqa jol berilmeui sebepti olarda daghdarysqa tótep beretindey qauhar bizge qaraghanda әldeqayda jetkilikti. Tipti, ekonomikalyq qúrylymy jaghynan Qazaqstangha úqsastyghy basym Arab Ámirlikteri, Saud Arabiyasy әlemdik daghdarysqa, múnaydyng baghasy әlemdik naryqta kóterile me joq pa – oghan pysqyryp ta qaramaydy. Olardyng jyl sayynghy ekonomikalyq ósimi shamamen 5–8 payyzdy qúraydy. Ýkimet pen bankting qyzmeti kәsiby dengeyde sauatty әri bolashaq qaterdi boljau bilikti jýrgiziledi.

Al, 1993 jyly Qazaqstandaghy 1 dollardyng tengege shaqqandaghy baghamy 4,7 bolsa, 2015 jyly 240 tengege jetip, 70 esege qúnsyzdandy. Jogharyda atap ótken Birikken Arab Ámirliginde últtyq valuta 1971 jyly engizilgen: sol kezdegi dollargha shaqqandaghy baghamy 3,75 dirham bolsa, kýni býginge deyin sol dengeyin saqtap otyr. Myqty ekonomikasy bar elder halqynyng últtyq valutagha degen senimi zor. Al Saud Arabiyasynyng rialy 1953 jyly engizilip, bir dollargha shaqqandaghy qúny 3,4 bolatyn, arada alpys jyldan astam uaqyt ótse de, eshqanday ózgeris bolghan joq.

Yaghni, mәsele jekelegen memleketterding ekonomikasy shiykizatqa tәueldiligine, klimattyq ornalasuyna tirelip túrghan joq, mәsele – sol elderding ekonomikalyq sayasatty sauatty, kәsiby týrde joghary dengeyde jýrgize aluyna baylanysty. Ókinishke qaray, bizde ekonomikanyng kez kelgen salasyna qatysty auyz toltyryp aitatynday jaghdayymyz shamaly.

Sondyqtan preziydent Nazarbaevtyng berik boljam jasaugha, ekonomikany shúghyl arada qiyndyqtan qútqarugha degen senimi az. Onyng boljamyndaghy daghdarystyng merzimi tym sozylyp túrghany da sodan.

– Al daghdarystyng sharyqtau shegi 2017 jylgha dóp keledi degen boljamnyng әserinen elde merziminen búryn parlamenttik saylau ótui әbden mýmkin degen dolbargha qosylasyz ba?

– Áriyne, qosylam! Tәuelsizdikting 24 jylynda ýirenshikti әdetke ainalghan saylau nauqany qashan óz uaqytynda ótip edi?! Aqorda biyligi jýrgizip otyrghan sayasattyng túraqsyzdyghy, ózi shygharghan zannamalyq talaptardy ayaq asty etip, syilamaytyny, Ata zanmen sanaspaytyny – taghy da mezgilinen búryn ótetin saylaugha dәlel bolsa kerek. Býgingi jaghdayda osynday solaqay sayasattyng tәjiriybesin eskere otyryp, juyrda mezgilinen búryn parlament saylauy ótetinine kýmәnim joq. Tipti onyng alghy sharttary da jasalyp jatyr: ekonomikalyq jaghday kýn sanap ushyghyp, elding әleumettik jaghdayy әlsiredi. Aldaghy 2016–2017 jyldarda qymbatshylyq qamytyna shydamaghan halyqtyng әleumettik әdiletsizdikke degen tózimi tausylyp, qarsylyq sharalaryna baru mýmkindigin de biylik bilip otyr.

Sondyqtan jyl sonyna deyin jedeldetip, saylau ótkizu әreketterine kiristi. Týrli syltaularmen Kompartiyanyng jabyluy, «Auyl» partiyasy men Patriottar partiyasyn qosyp, jana sayasy birlik jasaudyng astarynda saylaugha dayyndyqtyng ailasy jatqany belgili. Biraq saylau – eldegi qalyptasqan jaghdaygha eshqanday ondy әser etpeytini de anyq: jattandy nauqan ótedi, jana deputattar da sol býgingilerining ornyna baryp qonjiyady, qara halyq óz qotyryn ózi qasyp qala beredi. Tipti saylau óte me, ótpey me – onda halyqtyng sharuasy da joq siyaqty.

– Eldegi tereng ekonomikalyq daghdarysqa birinshi kezekte kinәli dep kimdi ataysyz: ýkimet pen Últtyq bankting biliksizdigi me, joq әlde jalpy sayasy jýiening daghdarysy saldary ma?

– Oryn alghan әleumettik-ekonomomikalyq daghdarys – sayasy jýiening solaqay sayasatynyng saldary deuge әbden bolady. Elimizdegi barlyq mәsele tek qana sayasy jýiege baylanyp qalghan. Tipti býkil el sol jýiege qyzmet kórsetetin «malaygha» ainalghan synayly. Jekelegen lauazymdy sheneunikter tarapynan jiberilgen qatelikter de jeterlik: nemqúraylylyq, kәsiby dengeyining tómendigi, jauapsyzdyghy da yqpal etpey qoyghan joq. Mәselen, búl arada premier-ministr Mәsimov pen Últtyq bank tóraghasy Kelimbetovting attaryn atap ketkenimiz jón. Biraq jekelegen túlghalarmen bar mәsele sheshilip qalmaytyny belgili: Mәsimovtyng ornyna Tәsimovty, Kelimbetovtyng ornyna Ketimbetovty qonggha bolar, odan jaghday ózgere qoymasy anyq. Sebebi jýiening ózi eshteneni ózgertuge mýddeli emes. Onyng jeke bir bólshegin almastyru – elding jaghdayyn jaqsartugha yqpal ete almaydy. Býgingi jaghdaygha jetkenimiz – sayasy jýiening zaman talabyna say kelmeytin sayasat jýrgize almauynyng kesiri. Sayasy jýie ózgermese, ózge salalardyng damuyna jol ashylmaydy.

– Eger merziminen búryn parlamenttik saylau ótken jaghdayda Núrsúltan Nazarbaev sayasy jýiege transformasiya jasau sayasatyn bastauy mýmkin be?

– Joq, mýmkin emes! Konstitusiyanyng baptaryna jekelegen ózgerister engizilui, parlament qúziretining sәl-pәl kenenui yqtimal. Aynalyp kelgende, dekorativti әrleu arqyly biylikting bet perdesin sylap-sipap, syrt kózge «úly» ózgerister jasap jatqanday bolady. Jýieni sol qalpynda konservasiyalap, búrynghy keypin saqtap qalady.

Býgingi biylik týbegeyli ózgerister jasaugha dayyn emes dep sanaymyn. Alayda biylik sayasatyndaghy osy basymdyq túraqty bola qoymas, sebebi әleumettik qiyndyqtargha qazaq tózimdilik tanytqanymen, onyng da tausylatyn kezi bolady. Biylik «miz baqpaytyn» minezinen taymaydy degenge de senu qiyn: ony taydyru órkeniyetti beybit jolmen sheshilip jatsa – qúba-qúp. Sondyqtan elde halyqqa qaraylas ózgeris jasau – Nazarbaevtyng óz qolynda, onday qadamgha barmasa, aldyda qarsylyq әreketterge ózi jol ashyp beru qaupi túr.

 – Rasul myrza, taghy bir alandaytyn mәselege qatysty saualdyng reti kelip túr. Juyqta Qytay saparynan oralghan preziydent Nazarbaev qytaylyqtardyng 50-ge juyq óndiris oryndary Qazaqstangha kóshiriledi degen joralghy aitty. Búl sheshim sayasi-ekonomikalyq túrghyda dúrys boldy dep oilaysyz ba?

– Búl aradaghy basty mәsele – Qytaymen bolsyn, basqamen bolsyn, osynday yntymaqtastyqqa qatysty eki aradaghy qol qoyylatyn qújattar jariya týrde jasalauy tiyis. Olay deuime sebep – songhy qol qoyylghan sheshimderden, Qytaydan alghan milliardtaghan nesiyege qatysty qújattardan qogham beyhabar. Qaryz el iygiligi esebinen qaytarylady emes pe? Tipti Qytaydy bylay qoyghanda, óz ishimizdegi әleumettik-ekonomikalyq manyzy bar qújattardyng mәtini júmbaq. Demek, elge kóship keletin kәsiporyndardaghy qazaqstandyq júmys kýshining mәrtebesi qytaylyqtarmen tenestirile me? Qazaqtyng mýddesine sәikes bolsa, onday qújat, kelisim-sharttardy qúpiya ústaudyng qajeti qansha?

 – Shamasy, Qytaydan kóshiriletin ol zauyttardy qytaylyqtardyng ózderi salatynyn eskersek, Qazaqstanda әleumettik qaqtyghystar boluy mýmkin ghoy. Mәselen, Aqtoghay ken bayytu kombinatyndaghy qytaylyq jәne jergilikti júmysshylar arasyndaghy jappay tóbelesti eske alyp kórinizshi...

– Ábden mýmkin! Jogharyda atap ótkenimdey, kelisim-sharttyng mәtini jariya týrde, elding nazaryna úsynyluy tiyis. Sayyp kelgende, Ata zanymyzdyng talaby boyynsha, kez kelgen memleketpen kelisimge kelgende, qol qoyylmastan búryn resmy BAQ-ta jariyalanuy tiyis. Biraq osynday kelisimderding barlyghy qúpiya týrde saqtalyp otyr, yaghny biylikting ózi zandy búzuda. Osyghan deyin de elding batys ónirdegi múnay óndiretin kәsiporyndarda qytaylyq azamattar júmys istep keldi. Qytay da óz mýddesin, ózining qara basyn oilaytyny zandylyq. Yqpalyn jýrgizuge talpynady. Al biz óz ýlesimizdi yn-shynsyz ózgege ústata salsaq, bolashaq úrpaq aldynda keshirilmes kýnә bolar edi. Qytay óz tarapynan júmysshylarynyng mýddesi ýshin janyn bere qorghashtaydy, al biz óz elinde jýrgen qazaqtyng talaby eskerusiz qalyp, enbegi qanalyp jatqan jaghdaydan habardarmyz. Nesie aldyq eken dep, kórshiler ne aitsa, soghan kóne ketu – bizdegi biylik ókilderining әlsizdigi dep bilemin.

Súhbattasqan Ermúrat BAPIY

 Eskertu: Taqyryp ózgertilip alyndy.

 Derek kózi: «Obshestvennaya pozisiya»

(proekt «DAT» №30 (301) ot 10 sentyabrya 2015 g.