Senbi, 13 Tamyz 2022
Alang 2378 0 pikir 22 Mausym, 2022 saghat 13:46

Putin yadrolyq qaru qoldana ma?

Reseyding Ukrainagha soghys ashuy men Mәskeuding "bliskriyg" josparynyng iske aspauy, Ukrainany jyldam jaulap alu әreketining tas talqan boluy men myndaghan әskerining qaza tabuy Kremlidi ózge sheshimder qabyldaugha iytermeleui mýmkin. Búl turaly Batystyq sarapshylar da, Ukraina men reseylik sarapshylar da aituda. 

Resey yadrolyq qarudy qoldanuy bek mýmkin deydi mamandar. Reseylik propaganda qyzmetkerleri 140 million auditoriyasyna búl turaly kýndelikti aituda. Olar NATO elderine yadrolyq soqqy jasaudy jii qozghaydy. Songhy bir ay ishinde Polisha men Baltyq elderin yadrolyq soqqy astyna alu kerektigin aituda.

Yadrolyq qarudy qoldanu sózsiz jahandyq qaqtyghysqa úlasary anyq. Reseylik sarapshylar siyaqty quatty qarudyng baryn әr alanda aita bermeytin NATO elderi songhy aptada azu tisin bir aqsityp qoydy. Mysaly Germaniyanyng bas qolbasshysy Ingo Gerharts yadrolyq qarudy qoldanugha dayyn bolu jayynda aitty. Bylay deydi Gerharts:

"Qarsylasty toqtatu ýshin bizge yadrolyq qarudy qoldana alu kerek, ol ýshin sayasy jiger qajet. Is qarsylaspen tóbeleske úlasqan sәtte Germaniya tóbelesuge dayyn, qajet bolsa biz óz aumaghymyzdaghy AQShtyng yadrolyq qaruyn qoldanuymyz kerek".

Osy sózding ózi, Resey men Ukraina soghysynda júmsaq pozisiya ústanyp kelgen Germaniya tarapynan aityldy. Búl Mәskeuge ýlken signal, búghan deyin dәl osynday eskertudi Úlybritaniya basshysy Boris Djonson aitqan bolatyn.

Key sayasatkerler Ukrainagha yadrolyq oqtúmsyqtar beru kerektigin aituda. Polisha sayasatkeri, polyaktardyng búrynghy Syrtqy ister ministri, býginde Europarlament deputaty sanalatyn Radoslav Sikorskiy bylay deydi:

"Resey ózining yadrolyq qaruy jayly aityp, ýnemi NATO elderi men Ukrainagha aibat shegumen keledi. Keyde Resey yadrolyq qaruyna sonshalyqty senim artyp, halyqaralyq qauymdastyqtyng barlyq erejesin esh jazasyz búzugha bolady dep sanaydy. Mening oiymsha Reseyge NATOnyng asa quatty yadrolyq aliyans ekenin eske saluymyz kerek". 

Ol "Batys elderi Ukrainagha yadrolyq qaru berui kerek pe" degen saualgha jauap berdi.

"Qazir emes. Mening oiymsha Resey yadrolyq qarumen yadrolyq qarudan bas tartqan elge soqqy jasasa, әlem elderi oghan quatty jauap berudi oilastyrady dep oilaymyn. Resey biyligi bizding óz núsqalarymyz bar ekenin úmytpaghany jón", – deydi ol.

Reseyding әskery sarapshysy Vladimir Evseev Polisha sayasatkerligining sózine jauap qatyp, bylay deydi:

"Resey NATO elderining Kaliningradqa qauip tóndirip, ony jaulap alu oiy baryn bilse, birden yadrolyq soqqy jasap, Litva arqyly Kaliningradqa jol ashady. Eger Batys dәl osynday jaghdaygha dayyn bolsa, onda jaghdaydy ushyqtyra bersin". 

Songhy aptada reseylik sayasatkerler Litva Kaliningradqa aparatyn jýk kólikterining jolyn jauyp, qoldan shekteu jasap jatyr dep baybalam saluda. Litva biyligi barlyghy da Batystyq sanksiyalar ayasynda, eshqanday zansyz әreket joq dep mәlimdedi. Resey biyligi "Litva dereu arada shekteulerdi joymasa, biz qatang jauap beremiz" dep eskertti. Alayda naqty qanday jauap bolatynyn aitpady.

Mamandar Putinning yadrolyq qarudy qoldanuy mýmkin ekenin joqqa shygharmaydy. Dey-túra ol Putin biyligine ýlken qauip tóndiretin qadam bolmaq. Birinshiden, yadrolyq soqqy jasaugha búiryq berilse de, ony oryndau birneshe satydan túrady. Sondyqtan qolbasshylar búiryqty oryndamay, kerisinshe búiryq berushining kózin jonggha úmytyluy mýmkin. Ekinshiden, yadrolyq soqqy jasau turaly sheshim qabyldansa, NATO elderi qarsy jauap retinde Reseyding iri qalalary men әskery nysandaryn yadrolyq soqqy astyna alady. Búl Resey di tolyq joymen ten, sondyqtan Kremli onday qauipting bar ekenin jaqsy týsinedi. Ýshinshiden, yadrolyq qarudyng naqty qoldanylatyn NATO barlaushylary bilse, NATO birinshi bolyp soqqy jasap ýlgerui mýmkin. Mine, atalmysh qauipting barlyghyn Putin biyligi eskereri anyq.

Jogharyda aitylghan qauipke qaramastan, Putin "yadrolyq qarudy qoldanu kerek" dep sheshim qabyldauy da yqtimal. Oghan birneshe faktor әser etuui mýmkin. Ukrainadaghy әskery jenilis pen sәtsizdik artsa, Ukraina әskeri Qyrymgha basyp kirse nemese Qyrym aimaghyn zymyran soqqysynyng astyna alsa (Reseyding konstitusiyasyna say okkupasiyadaghy Qyrym Reseyge tiyesili jәne ony qorghau maqsatynda yadrolyq qaru qoldanylu mýmkindigi qarastyrylady), Shvesiya men Finlyandiya NATO-gha mýshe bolsa jәne atalmysh elderge NATO әskery arsenaly ornalastyryla bastasa. Mine, osynday jaghdayda Putin oilanbastan yadrolyq qaru qoldanuy mýmkin.

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