Atauynyng tarihy

Investisiyalar әleminde kәsiby terminologiyanyng arasynda «kógildir fishkalar» dep atalatyn anyqtama jii kezdesedi, búl anyqtamamen belgili bir naryqta saudalanatyn birinshi eshelondaghy aksiyalardy belgileydi. Atalghan termin 1923 jyly bastau alady, al onyng avtory – Dow Jones kompaniyanyng qyzmetkeri jәne jurnalist Oliyver Gingolid. Ol brokerlik firmada júmys istegende aksiyalarmen jasalatyn mәmilelerge nazar audardy, búl aksiyalar bir dana ýshin 200-250 AQSh dollarymen saudalanatyn. Sәl keyinirek ol búl jayynda maqala jazyp, atalghan qaghazdargha «kógildir fishkalar» degen atau beredi, odan keyin termindi treyderler qoldana bastaydy. Alayda búl ataudyng týp tamyry poker karta oiynynda jatyr, búl oiynda kógildir fishkalar neghúrlym baghaly bolyp sanalady. Oiynda olardan bólek qyzyl jәne aq fishkalar «tóbe kórsetetin», alayda treyderlerding arasynda búl fishkalar keninen qoldanylmady. «Kógildir fishkalar» ýshin anonim retinde kóbine «penniy-stok» (Penny stock – sózbe-sóz «penny ýshin aksiyalar») jәne keyde “pink-sheet” (sózbe-sóz – «qyzghylt qaghaz») termiyni boldy, yaghny birjadan tys OTS naryghynyng slengtik atauy, atalghan naryqta bagha belgilenimderi 1913 jylgha deyin qyzghylt qaghazdarda jariyalanatyn.

Kógildir fishkalardyng erekshelikteri

Býgingi tanda kógildir fishkalar dep naryqtaghy jetekshi aksiyalardy ataydy, yaghny kapitaldandyruy eng ýlken, ótimdiligi bar, qúbylmalylyghy tómen jәne senimdiligi joghary kompaniyalar. Investorlar olardy tәuekel profiyli az, qajet bolsa jyldam satyp alugha jәne jyldam satugha bolatyn týsinikti jәne túraqty qúraldargha investisiyalaghysy kelgende tandaydy, mәmilelerding arasyndaghy baghalardyng aiyrmashylyghyna baylanysty eng az shyghyndy kóteredi. Múnday qaghazdar investisiyalau әdisteri konservativti portfelider ýshin qolayly, onda aksiyalardyng ýlesi 30%-dy, al obligasiyalardyng ýlesi 70%-dy qúraydy. Kógildir fishkalardy qamtamasyz etu arqyly paydalanugha jәne qysqa merzimge qaryzgha aqsha alugha tiyimdi (REPO mәmileleri).

Sonday-aq, manyzdy mәsele – kógildir fishkalardyng ósu mýmkindigi bar jәne úzaq merzimdi investisiyalar bolyp tabylady. Shyn mәninde, aksiyalar aitarlyqtay senimdi bolsa da, investorlar ýshin búl aksiyalar qymbattau mýmkindiginsiz asa qyzyq emes, sebebi ol ýshin memlekettik obligasiyalar týrinde balama bar. Alayda, búl jerde kýtiletin kiris kóbinese investisiya tәuekelimen tikeley baylanysty ekenin týsinu kerek, sol ýshin de kógildir fishkalar sharyqtap ósumen erekshelenbeui mýmkin.

Kógildir fishkalar tizimine kiru ólshemsharttary

Jalpy alghanda, múnday tizim naryqtaghy investorlardyng keng tobynyng jalpy pikirimen aiqyndalady jәne kiru ýshin qatang ólshemshartpen shektelmeydi. Kógildir fishkalardyng mәrtebesi eng aldymen әr naryq ýshin jeke aiqyndalady jәne shaghyn naryqtaghy olardyng ókilderi sauda-sattyqtyng kapitaldandyruy boyynsha da, sonday-aq kólemi boyynsha da iri naryqta saudalanatyn ókilderden týbegeyli erekshelenedi. AQSh-ta kógildir fishkalargha Microsoft, Apple, Coca-Cola, Nvidia, Amazon, Exxon Mobile, JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson jәne t.b. qaghazdar jatady.

Jergilikti naryqta resmy analog bar, búl – KASE indeksi nemese 10 aksiyadan túratyn Qazaqstan qor birjasynyng ókildik tizimi.

Etalondy kógildir fishkalar

KASE indeksinde barlyq 10 qaghazdyng zang jýzinde naryqta birinshi eshelon bolyp tabylatynyna jәne kógildir fishka degen mәrtebege ýmitker boluy mýmkin ekenine qaramastan, bizding kózqarasymyz boyynsha, olardyng arasynda etalondy ókilder dep indekste salmaqtyng 14%-ynan astam ýlesi bar ókilderdi sanaugha bolady. Aksiyalardyng ýlesi qaghaz baghalarynyng ósui men tómendeui shamasyna qaray ózgerui mýmkin ekenine qaramastan, qaghazdardyng tizimi kóbine ózgerissiz qalady. Olargha QazMúnayGazdy (14,7%), Halyq Bankti (15,8%), Kaspi-di (16,5%) jәne Qazatomónerkәsipti (14,1%) jatqyzugha bolady.

Odan әri biz jogharyda atalghan qaghazdardyng erekshelikterin qaraymyz, búl erekshelikter qaghazdardyng kógildir fishkalargha tiyesili ekenine erekshe kónil bóledi. Oryndar mynaday sanattar boyynsha bólinedi:

• Bes jyl qatarynan túraqty ósu.
• Kompaniyanyng naryqtyq kapitaldandyruy joghary ýlken ekonomikalyq quattylyghy (tipti monopoliyagha deyin).
• Aksiyalardyng joghary ótimdiligi men sauda-sattyqtyng kólemderi.
• Óz qyzmet salasyndaghy kóshbasshylyq oryndary.

4-oryn - Qazatomónerkәsip. Uran óndirude tek jergilikti ghana emes, sonday-aq әlem boyynsha kóshbasshy bolyp tabylady, búl atalghan ónerkәsipti әlemning yadrolyq energetikagha degen súranysynyng qayta kýsheyi kezeninde memleketting strategiyalyq aktiyvine ainaldyrady. Eger kompaniya óndiristing әldebir sebepterge baylanysty azayghany turaly habarlaghan jaghdayda, Qazatomónerkәsipting negizgi mәni urannyng bagha belgilenimderine qatty yqpal etui esebinen bayqalady. 1-toqsanda KZAP qaghazdarynyng sauda-sattyghynyng kólemi 3 mlrd tengeni qúrady, indeks qaghazdarynyng arasynda ol 7-oryndy iyelenedi. Saladaghy kóshbasshylyq oryndar, biraq sauda-sattyqtyng kólemderi salystyrmaly týrde ýlken emes bolghandyqtan, aksiyalar bizding reytingte 4-oryngha jayghasty.

2-3-oryn - Kaspi.kz jәne Halyq Banki. Ýshinshi jәne ekinshi oryngha bank sektorynyng ókilderi – Halyq Banki men Kaspi jayghasty, olar bir-birine sәl aiyrmashylyqtary bar tikeley bәsekeles bolyp tabylady. Eger Kaspi jeke túlghalargha baghdarlansa, onda Halyq Banki kóbine zandy túlghalargha baghdarlanghan. Kaspi naryqtyq kapitaldandyru boyynsha ozyp túr, naryq ony Halyq Bankine qaraghandagha 4,3 esege qymbat baghalaydy. Ekinshi jaghynan Kaspi 1-toqsandaghy sauda-sattyq kólemderinde 2,3 esege artta qalyp otyr. Halyq Banki diviydendterdi jylyna bir ret tóleydi, biraq diviydendti kiristiligi jii tólep otyratyn (toqsan sayyn) Kaspi-den asyp týsedi. Jalpy alghanda, qaghazdardyng profiyli úqsas keledi, әrqaysysynyng bir-birining aldynda artyqshylyqtary men kemshilikteri bar, sol ýshin de biz olardy sanattar kýshi jaghynan teng dep anyqtadyq.

1-oryn - QazMúnayGaz. Kvaziymemlekettik kompaniya, Qazaqstannyng múnaygaz salasynyng «injui» jәne osy naryqtaghy negizgi oiynshy, ol senimdilik ólshemsharttaryna jәne naryq monopoliyasyna sәikes keledi. Búl rette QMG naryqta neghúrlym ótimdi baghaly qaghaz bolyp tabylady, sebebi 1-toqsandaghy sauda-sattyqtyng kólemi 8,08 mlrd tengeni qúraydy. Odan kóbirek tek Air Astana kompaniyasynda (8,5 mlrd tenge) bolyp otyr, alayda búl jerde aqpan aiynda ótken IRO-gha týzetuler jasaghan jón, búl qaghazdar sauda-sattyghynyng kórsetkishterin alghashqy uaqytta aitarlyqtay arttyrady. Kapitaldandyru dengeyi jaghynan QazMúnayGaz kompaniyasy Kaspi-den artta qalyp otyr (QMG-daghy 17,7 mlrd AQSh dollaryna qaraghanda Kaspi-de 22,4 mlrd AQSh dollary). Kompaniya diviydendterdi jylyna bir ret tóleydi, songhy tólemi 491,71 tengeni qúrady, biylghy jyly aksionerler bir aksiyagha keminde 620 tengeni maqúldauy mýmkin. IRO ótkizilgen sәtten bastap qaghazdar ósude jәne baghasy jaghynan 50%-dan kóbirek ósti. Aghymdaghy sәtte aksiyalar ózderining tarihy eng joghary dengeylerinde ornalasqan. Barlyq osy faktordy eskere otyryp, biz QazMúnayGaz-dy KASE indeksindegi etalondy kógildir fishka dep sanaymyz.

Osylaysha, KASE-ning qoldanystaghy indeksine egjey-tegjeyli taldau jýrgize otyryp, Qazaqstannyng etalondy kompaniyalarynyng aksiyalary, yaghny kógildir fishkalar erekshe ataldy. Iri jәne tabysty jergilikti kompaniyalardyng aksiyalary ózining túraqtylyghyna baylanysty ornyqty investisiyalyq portfeli qalyptastyruy mýmkin. Múnday kompaniyalar naryqtyng terbelisterine az úshyraydy jәne túraqty ósudi kórsetuge beyim, al daghdarys kezinde óz resurstarynyng esebinen qiyndyqtargha qarsy túra alady. Degenmen, kógildir fishkalardan kelip týsetin aityrlyqtay payda alu yqtimaldyghy úzaq uaqytqa investisiyalau kezinde úlghayady.

Ansar Abuev,

Freedom Finance Global kompaniyasynyng taldaushysy

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