Reseylik Z-nasihatshylardyng ózderi maydandaghy shynayy jaghdaydy jasyru mýmkin bolmay bara jatqanyn ashyq moyynday bastady. Liman baghytyndaghy ukrain әskerining qarsy shabuyly Resey әskery basshylyghyndaghy «búrmalanghan esep beru» mәdeniyetine qatysty kýdikti qayta kýn tәrtibine shyghardy.

Reseylik әskery telegram-arnalar men Z-blogerler Liman baghytyndaghy jaghdaydyng reseylik kýshter ýshin kýrdelene týskenin jazyp jatyr. Olardyng keybiri Resey әskeri maydannyng jekelegen aldynghy shepterinen sheginuge mәjbýr bolghanyn habarlady. Búl turaly AQSh-tyng Soghysty zertteu instituty (ISW) 9 qyrkýiektegi esebinde atap ótti.

«Jaqsy janalyq» — shyndyqty býrkemeleytin aqparattyq perde me?

ISW mәlimetinshe, reseylik әskery blogerlerding biri ukrain әskeri Liman manynda birneshe aidan beri qarsy shabuyl operasiyalaryn jýrgizip jatqanyn aitqan. Alayda Resey әskery qolbasshylyghynyng resmy mәlimdemeleri men reseylik kartalar maydandaghy jaghdaydy әldeqayda «optimistik» sipatta kórsetip kelgen.

Yaghny mәsele tek kartadaghy belgili bir qashyqtyqta emes, maydandaghy naqty jaghday men jogharygha jetkiziletin aqparattyng arasyndaghy alshaqtyqta bolyp otyr.

Reseylik әskery ortada shynayy ahualdy jasyryp, tek jaghymdy aqparat jetkizu ýrdisine tipti «jaqsy janalyqtar» degen atau berilgen. Z-blogerler múnday tәjiriybeni synap, ony әskery jýiede mýldem bolmauy tiyis qúbylys retinde baghalauda.

Búl — óte manyzdy belgi. Soghystaghy jalghan esep tek qoghamdy adastyryp qana qoymaydy, sheshim qabyldaytyn shtabtargha da qate aqparat beredi. Al komandir naqty jaghdaydy bilmese, әskerdi ornalastyru, rezervterdi paydalanu, logistika jәne qorghanys shebin úiymdastyru boyynsha qabyldaghan sheshimderi qatege úrynady.

Putinning mәlimdemesi men Liman shyndyghy

ISW esebindegi taghy bir manyzdy jayt — Svyatogorsk tóniregindegi ahual.

Ukrain әskeri Svyatogorsk qalasyn tolyq baqylauda ústap túrghanyn dәleldegennen keyin, búl mәlimet Reseyding búrynghy mәlimdemelerine qayshy keldi. Sebebi búghan deyin Vladimir Putin Resey әskerining búl eldi mekendi baqylaugha alghanyn habarlaghan bolatyn. Múnday mәlimetten song reseylik әskery tilshilerding bir bóligi ukrain tarapynyng aqparatyn joqqa shygharmay, onyng shyndyqqa sәikes keletinin moyyndaugha mәjbýr boldy.

Búl jerde mәsele bir eldi mekenning taghdyrynan әldeqayda ken. Eger joghary dengeydegi resmy mәlimdeme men maydandaghy naqty ahual bir-birine say kelmese, әskerding aqparattyq jýiesine degen senim әlsireydi. Al reseylik әskery blogerlerding múny ashyq synauy — senim daghdarysynyng kýsheygenin anghartady.

Liman Kremli ýshin nege manyzdy?

Liman baghyty — Donbastaghy әskery operasiyalar túrghysynan strategiyalyq manyzdy uchaske. Sondyqtan búl aimaqtaghy ukrain qarsy shabuyly Resey әskerining belgili bir pozisiyalaryn ghana emes, onyng býkil maydandaghy bastamany ústap túru qabiletin de tarazygha salady.

ISW mynaday manyzdy eskertu jasaydy: ashyq derekter negizinde Liman baghytyndaghy maydan shebining qazirgi naqty úzyndyghyn dәl anyqtau qiyn. Demek, Ukraina әskerining qansha aumaqty qaytarghanyn qazir naqty sanmen baghalau erte.

Degenmen ISW baghalauynsha, qazirgi kartografiyalyq әdisteme ukrain kýshterining jetistigin tómendetip kórsetui mýmkin. Ashyq derekter kóbeygen sayyn qarsy shabuyldyng auqymy aiqyndala týspek.

Negizgi mәsele — aumaq emes, aqparat

Liman manyndaghy oqighalardyng eng basty qyry — әskery kartadaghy ózgeristermen qatar, Reseyding aqparattyq kenistigindegi ishki qayshylyqtyng kýshengi.

Búghan deyin de reseylik әskery blogerler biylikting maydandaghy jetistikter turaly asyra siltegen mәlimdemelerin jii synaytyn. Endi olar múnday jalghan aqparattyng tikeley әskery qauipke ainalghanyn ashyq aita bastady.

Búl jerde ýlken paradoks bar: Kremli maydandaghy jenisti kórsetu arqyly ishki auditoriyada «quatty әri bәrin baqylauda ústaghan armiya» beynesin qalyptastyrugha tyrysady. Propagandalyq mәlimetter men shynayy jaghday arasyndaghy alshaqtyq úlghayghan sayyn, búl nasihattyng ózi әskery jýiege keri әserin tiygizedi.

Soghystaghy eng qauipti nәrse — qarsylastyng kýshin asyra baghalau emes, óz jaghdayyn dúrys baghalamau. Liman baghytyndaghy ukrain qarsy shabuyly Reseyding dәl osy әlsiz túsyn ashyp berdi.

Qorytyndy: ISW әzirge ukrain kýshteri jetistigining naqty auqymyna saqtyqpen qaraydy. Alayda Reseyding óz әskery blogerlerining maydandaghy jaghdaydy jasyru tәjiriybesin ashyq synay bastauy — nazar audararlyq qúbylys.

Liman týbindegi shayqastyng әskery nәtiyjesi әli tolyq aiqyndalmaghan boluy mýmkin, biraq onyng aqparattyq saldary qazirding ózinde aiqyn: Reseyding soghys turaly resmy bayany men maydannan keletin shynayy aqparattyng arasyndaghy alshaqtyq kýn sanap úlghayyp barady.

Abai.kz