Siriyadaghy rejimge qarsy 2011 jyly qantarda bastalghan halyqtyng narazylyq sherulerining sony azamattyq soghysqa úlasty. El preziydenti alauittik kózqarasty ústanatyn Bashar Asadqa qarsy baghyttalghan kýreske әlemning әr jerinen islamdaghy radikaldyq joldy ústanatyn «jihadshylar» da qosylyp, Asad rejiymine qarsy kýres diny sipat aldy. Bashar Asadty da odaqtastary Resey men Iran qoldap, rejimning radikaldy «jihadshylarmen» kýresine qol úshyn sozyp keledi.

4 jylgha sozylghan Siriyadaghy soghys býkil әlemdi alandatyp otyr. Soghys saldarynan býginge deyin Siriyada 250 myngha juyq adam qaza tauyp, ýsh millionnan asa adam bosqyn atandy. Rejimge qarsy soghysqan «jihadshylar» bas kezinde islam sharighatyna sәikes "jihad" kórsetkenimen, keyinnen kózqarastary men maqsatyn ózgertip ainyp ketti. Islam jihadynda joq tútqyndy júrt kózinshe bauyzdau, adam órteu, jas, kәri demey bәrin qyryp saluymen әlemning ýreyin aldy. Islamgha da kir keltirdi. Ózderin aimaqta sharighat ornatamyz dep, «Islam memleketi» (IYM) dep jariyalap ta ýlgerdi. IM «jihadshylary» qazir Siriyanyng ýshten eki bóligin jaulap ta ýlgerdi.

Úzaqqa sozylghan Siriyadaghy soghys nege bitpeydi? Ukraina daghdarysy men Siriyadaghy soghystyng qanday baylanysy bar? Kim neni qalap otyr? IYM-di kim qoldaydy, Tayau Shyghysqa kimder mýdelli? Rejim qúlaghan song IM «jihadshylary» endi qayda barmaq? degen súraqtargha jauap izdep, kýshter arasynda qúpiya sayasy sauda da bolghany turaly naqty derekterge sýienip jazghan sayasy boljamdardy sizderge úsynamyz!

31 mamyr kýni Londondaghy arab tilinde jaryq kóretin Asharq Al-Awsar gazetinde «Resey Siriyadaghy arasynda әskery mamandary da bar 100-ge juyq azamatyn kóshirip ala bastady. Resey biyligi әlsirey bastaghan Bashar Asadty qoldaudan kónili qaldy. 2011 jyldan beri Kremli Siriya preziydenti Bashar Asadqa kómegin arttyryp, BÚÚ qauipsizdik kenesining Siriyagha qarsy qarar kabyldauyna kedergi bolyp kelgen edi. Endi mine Siriyany qarsy tarapqa berip, elden shyghyp jatyr. 2011 jyly Bashar Asadqa qarsy tolqular bastalghaly Resey Jerorta tenizine әskery eskadrolaryn jiberip, Iranmen birge Bashar Asad rejiymin syrtqy kýshterding әserinen qúlaudan qorghap kelgen edi» dep jazady.

Kremli ýshin Siriya Ukrainadan da manyzdy

Mәskeuding Siriya ýshin tartysqa týsuining eki strategiyalyq manyzy bar. Birinshiden, Mәskeu Siriya jeri arqyly Saud Arabiyasynyng gaz qúbyryn Europagha jetkizuge qarsy. Irannyng da gaz qúbyryn aumaghynan ótkizbeuge Siriyany kóndirip otyr. Ekinshiden, Siriyadaghy Asad rejiymi Reseymen odaqtas. Búl odaqtastyghy Kenes odaghy men AQSh arasynda qyrghy qabaq soghys uaqytynan qalyptasqan. Sol kezende Resey Tayau Shyghysta, yaghny Siriyada ózining Tartus atty әskery bazasyn da salghan. Kenes odaghy qúlaghan song da Siriya Reseyding qaru saudasynda túraqty tútynushysy bolyp keledi. Eki jaqty sayasy kelisimder arqasynda Resey Tayau Shyghysta geosayasy ornyn saqtap qalghan. 2011 jyldan beri kóterilisshilermen kýresip kele jatqan Asadtyn biylikte qaluyna Resey qol úshyn sozyp keledi.

Siriya preziydenti Bashar Asadtyng biylikte qaluyna da Reseyding birshama paydasy tiyip jatyr. Siriyagha AQSh pen NATO-nyng bitimgershilik kýshterin kirgizuden Resey saqtap otyr. Sonday- aq, Resey búnday yqpalyn postsovettik elderge de jýrgize bermek.

2011 jyly BÚÚ qauipsizdik kenesi qabyldaghan qararda Liviya «úshugha tyiym salynghan aimaq» dep jariyalanghan. Ol kezde Resey búghan qarsy shyqpady. Nәtiyjesinde Fransiya bastaghan NATO kýshteri Liviyadaghy sayasy tartysqa aralasyp, narazylyq tolqularynda zandy ýkimetting biylikten ketuine atsalysqan. Liviyanyng kógildir otyny Úlybritaniya men Fransiyanyng múnay óndiru kompaniyalary arqyly batys paydasyna jaratyldy. Búl jaghdaylardan son, Reseyding óz jaqtastarynyng aldynda bedeli birshama tómendep qaldy. Endigi kezekte Kremli Siriyanyng ishki isine NATO jәne Arab elderining de aralasuyna jol bermeuge, BÚÚ kenesinin Siriyagha qatysty qandayda da bir qarar qabyldamauyna kýsh salyp keledi. Tipti Siriyadaghy rejimge qarsy kýresip kele jatqan oppozisiyalyq kýshtermen kelisssózder jýrgizuden de bas tartqan joq. Áytse de búl oppozisiyalyq kýshter әr týrli toptargha bólinui, әlsiz, әri rejimge qiyn talaptar qoiy Mәskeuding Asad rejiymin qolday beruine de serpin berdi.

Mәskeu odaqtasy Tegeranmen birge Asad rejiymine qaru berip jәne qauipsizdigine kepil boluyn jalghastyryp, diplomatiyalyq alandarda «advokattyghyn» jasap keledi. 2012 jyldyng orta sheninde Siriya mәselesin sheshude Mәskeu Vashingtonmen birge Jeneva konferensiyasyn úiymdastyrghan edi. Biraq, taraptardyng kózqarastary әr týrli bolyp, kelise almaghan.

 2013 jyly Asad "kóterilisshilerge qarsy himiyalyq qaru qoldandy" dep, әlem nazarynda ýlken daugha qalghan bolatyn. Putin «Asadtyng himiyalyq qaruyn joi kerek» degen Obamanyng shartty tilegin oryndap, odaqtasy Asad rejiyminining taqtan erte qúlauynan aman alyp qalghan edi.

Putinning Siriya jóninde Vashingtonmen qúpiya sayasy saudasy

Songhy kezderi Siriyadaghy janjaldy toqtatu mәseleleri tónireginde Resey men AQSh arasynda sayasy saudalasu bastalghany turaly mәlimetter payda bola bastady. Putin songhy uaqytta Asadqa kómegin azaytyp jatqany turaly da mәlimetter bar.

Qúpiya sayasy saudada Resey AQSh-qa NATO-nyng Resey shekarasyna tayau jaqyndamaudy, Reseyge salynghan sanksiyalardy alyp tastaudy talap etip otyrghan aitylady. Al, Europa basshylary Reseyding agressorlyq sayasatyna senimsizdik tanytyp, sanksiyalardyng jalghasa bergenin qalap otyr. Vashington da óz kezeginde, Kremlige odaqtasy Asadtyng ornyn bosatuyn ótinedi. Resey búghan, aqyry uysynan shyghyp bara jatqan Asad rejiymin radikaldy IM «jihadshylary» arqyly emes, rejimge qarsy kýresip jýrgen oppozisiyalyq kýshter arqyly auystyrudy, olardyng basshylyqqa kelip, әri rejim qúlaghan song AQSh pen NATO-dan IM «jihadshylarymen» ayausyz kýresuin súrap otyr.

Biraq, múnday qúpiya sayasy saudalasu bolghany turaly pikirlerge qarsy Resey syrtqy ister ministrining kómekshisi Sergey Ryabkov «AQSh pen Resey arasynda Ukraina nemese Siriyadaghy janjalgha qatysty qanday da bir sayasy saudalasu bolmaydy. Reseyding Ukraina jәne Siriya mәselesine qatysty ústanymy ózgermeydi» dep aitty.

21 mamyrda Resey syrtqy ister ministri Mihail Bogdanov «Resey AQSh pen Siriya mәselesin sheshude jana kelisimderge әzir. Áytse de songhy sheshimdi Siriyalyqtar beredi» dep mәlimdegen.

Al, Izrailidik Israel Defense sayty da izraili qauipsizdik qyzmetine silteme jasaghan maqalasynda Siriyadaghy soghystyng bitui ýshin Kremli men Vashington arasynda qúpiya kezdesuler jýrgizilgeni turaly aitylady. Siriyada beybitshilik ornauy ýshin jasalghan kelisimderde Siriya memleketining bólinui jәne aimaqta jana memleket qúryluy da mýmkin ekeni jazylghan.

Búl aqparat kózi búghan deyin de Siriyanyng ontýstigindegi oppozisiyalyq kýshterge IM «jihadshylarymen» kýreske әueden kómek (әue shabuyly) beriletini turaly da jazghan bolatyn. Sonday aq, búl sayt «Kremli men Vashinton janjaldyng ayaqtalmaytynyn týsinip, bir kelisimge kelgen. Vashington Reseyge, yaghni, Asadtyng Shamnyng ýlken bóligin jәne Tartus bazasymen Golan jotalaryn baqylaugha alugha kepildik beredi. Al, Siriyanyng qalghan aumaghy opppozisiyalyq kýshterding baqylauyna ótpek» dep jazady. Basylym dereginshe, kazir soghysyp jatqan taraptar bitim ornaghansha neghúrlym ýlken aumaqtargha ie bolyp qalugha tyrysyp jatyr. Izrailidik búl aqparat kózinde «Kremli - Aq ýy kelisimderi nәtiyjesin berui mýmkin. Iran jәne Hezbolla úiymy da Asadtyng biyligi shekaraly aimaqtargha da jýretin bolsa, bitimdi qoldaymyz dep otyr» dep jazady.

31 mamyr kýni Londondaghy arab tilinde shyghatyn Asharq Al-Awsar gazetinde, Siriya oppazisiyasynyng mәlimetterine sýienip, «Resey Siriyanyng Laskie әuejayynan aralarynda әskery mamandary da bar 100 ge juyq azamatyn kóshirip aldy» dep jazady. Búl janalyqty Reseyding "Interfaks" agenttigi 28 mamyrda «Siriyagha qayyrymdylyq kómek jetkizgen "IYl-76" úshaghy Resey jәne TMD nyng 80- ge juyq azamatyn aimaqtan evakuasiyalady» dep jariyalady. Sonday- aq, Asharq Al-Awsar  janalyghynda Siriyadan evakuasiyalanghandar arasyndaghy әskery mamandardyng Shamda Iran jәne "Hezbolla" úiymymen birge júmys istegeni aitylady. Gazetting janalyghynda songhy ýsh aida Resey Shamdaghy elshiligindegi qyzymetkerler sanyn azaytqanyn, tek negizgi qyzmetkerler ghana qalghanyn jazady. Asharq Al-Awsar sonymen qatar «Siriya armiyasyndaghy Reseyde jasalghan әskery úshaqtardy jóndep beru kelisim shartyn Resey endigi oryndamaydy. Resey Siriyadan ketip jatyr» dep jazady.

Biraq, búnday «Resey AQSh- tyng úsynysyn qabyl aldy, taraptar arasynda sayasy sauda jasaldy, endigi Mәskeu Bashar Asadqa qoldauyn dogharyp, Asad rejiymining qúlauyna qarsy túru amaldaryn toqtatady» degen aqparattardy Mәskeu auyr kabyldap, negizsiz dep jariyalady. Mәskeu Bashar Asadtyng әli Siriya preziydenti ekenin moyyndaytyny, oghan kerek barlyq kómekti әli de ayamaytynyn kezekti ret mәlimdedi.

Resey syrtqy ister komiytetining basshysy Aleksey Pushkov Twitter-de «Siriya mәselesin sheshude tandau qarapayym. Ya Asad, ya IYM. Oppozisiyalyq toptarda kýsh-quat joq. Asad biylikten ketip, Siriya armiyasy tarap, eldegi biylik «jihadshy» toptardyng qolyna ótuimen ayaqtalady», dep jazdy.

Saud Arabiyasynyng Reseymen óz saudasy

Búdan búryn Mәskeuge Bashar Asadqa jasaytyn kómeginen bas tartqyzu ýshin Saud Arabiyasynyng da Mәskeumen sayasy sauda jasaghany turaly aqparattar tarady. 2015 jyldyng 15 aqpanynda The New York 
Times gazetinde bir diplomattyng aitqanyna qaraghanda Saud Arabiyasynyn óz múnaylaryn paydalanyp әlemdik múnay baghasyna yqpal etetinin, búl arqyly ekonimikalyq qiyn jaghdaydaghy Reseydi Asad rejiymine kómek beruden bas tartqyzudy maqsat etip otyrghanyn jazady.

Búl janalyqqa qarsy Siriya jәne Tayau Shyghys jónindegi Reseylik maman Anatoly Ál Murid Saud Arabiyasynyng múnay baghasyn týsiru arqyly Reseyding Asadqa bolysudan bas tartqyzu úsynysynyn sayasy arandatu ekenin, Kremli eshkimning de múnday úsynysyn qabyldamaytynyn, múnyng "ekonomikalyq qysym kórsetu arqyly sayasy úpay týgendeu" ekenin aitady.

Mәskeuding Asadqa kómek beruden bas tartuynyn óteuine Saud Arabiyasy múnay baghasyn kóteruge uede berip otyr. Resey búl uәdege senimsizdikpen qaraydy. Sonday-aq, Saud Arabiyasynyng búl úsynysyn qabyl alsa odaqtasy Siriya men Irannyng kóniline kep qalmaq, búl tandaudy qabyl alu Reseyge auyr bolmaq.

Reseyding Liviyadaghy elshisi Aleksandr Zasypkin «Resey Siriya preziydenti Bashar Asadty biylikten ketirudi oilamaydy. Siriyadaghy biylikke qarsy kýres Siriyanyng ishki mәselesi. Biz bireuding Siriyanyng ishki isine aralasuyna jol bermeymiz. Sol siyaqty Resey de Siriyagha qanday da bir yqpal etudi kózdemeydi» degen mәlimde jasady.

 Tegerannyng da óz esebi bar

Asadtyng taqtan týsui Iran ýshin aimaqtaghy eng manyzdy odaqtasynan aiyrylu degendi bildiredi әri Europagha jetkizilui josparlanghan Iran-Siriya gaz qúbyry jobasy jýzege aspay qalady. Búl ýshin de Iran Asadty qoldap keledi.

Siriyadaghy rejimning taghdyryn belgileuge Iran men Saud Arabiyasy talasyp keledi. Saud Arabiyasy da Siriya jәne Týrkiya jerleri arqyly Arab týbegining gazyn Europagha tartudy oilaydy. Resey Siriya biyligi arqyly odaqtasy Irannyng ne Saud Arabiyasynyng Siriya jeri arqyly gaz qúbyryn ótkizuine rúqsat bergizbeuge tyrysyp keledi. Búnyng óteuine Resey Asad rejiymining songhy kýshi qalghansha edәuir kómektesip te jatyr. Eki jaqtan qoldau kórgen Asad rejiymi әzir qúlay qoyy ekitalay bolyp otyr.

AQSh pen Batys, Saud Arabiyasy gaz qúbyryn Europagha sәtti jetkizer bolsa, Iran men Resey ekonomikasyna óte auyr soqqy bolmaq. Batysqa gaz satu arqyly ekonomikasyna qan jýgirtip otyrghan Reseyding ekonomikasy shatqayaqtap ketui ghajap emes. Álemdik sayasy arenada da bedeli men salmaghynan aiyrylary sózsiz.

Áriyne, ekonomikalyq qiyn jaghdaydaghy Reseyge, Bashar Asad taghynan qúlaugha jaqyn qalsa da Siriyadaghy úrystardyng jalghasa berui әzirshe tiyimdi. Resey Tegerannyng odaqtasy sanalghanymen Europagha gaz jetkizu maselesinde jeme-jemge kelgende ekeuining arasy alshaqtay týsedi. Ekeuining de Bashar Asad rejiymin qoldauda óz mýddeleri baryn eskeru kerek. Degenmen, Vashingtonmen búl oiynynda útylyp otyrghanyn Kremli sezip te otyr. Al, Europa men Saud Arabiyasy Siriyadaghy soghystyng tezirek ayaqtaluyna, Asadtyng biylikten ketip, oppozisiyalyq kýshterding biylikti qoldaryna aluyna asyq. Europagha Saud Arabiyasynyng gazyn jetkizuge, qúbyr salu júmystary men qauipsiz tasymaldanuyna әzirge Siriyadaghy soghys kedergi keltirude.

Byltyr Resey Bolgariya jeri arqyly Europagha gaz jetkizuge kiristi. Biraq orta jolda Bolgariya ýkimeti men Europa Odaghy kelisimin bermey, Bolgariya jerinde qúbyr salu júmystary toqtaghan. Aqyry Kremli Europagha gazdy Týrkiya jeri arqyly, Qara teniz astynan ótkizip jetkizuge qol jetkizdi. Siriyada soghys bolyp jatqanda gaz qúbyryn Bolgariyany ainalyp salsa da Europagha gaz jetkizuge asyghyp, kómirsutegi satudaghy bәsekelesteri Saud Arabiyasy men Irannyng aldyn oraghanday boldy.

Asad rejiymi qúlaghan song IM «jihadshylary» qayda barmaq?

 Resey ýshin Asadtyng biylikten ketui onyng ornyna IYM-ning keluimen birdey. IM - Reseyding eng ýlken problemasynyng biri. Siriyanyng qúlauy - IYM-ning jenisi. Asad biyligi qúlaghan jaghdayda Resey Tayau Shyghysta geosayasy túrghyda útylmaq. Reseyding Siriyadan qol ýzui, odaqtasy Iranmen de qarym- qatynasyna әserin tiygizbey qoymasy belgili.

 Siriyalyqtargha aimaqta Reseyding yqpalyn joghaltpaghany manyzdy. Búrynnan beri Siriya men Resey arasynda dәstýrli baylanys ornaghan-túghyn. Qauipsizdik pen barlau úiymdarynyng rejim auysqan song da kýn kóruleri Mәskeuge de manyzdy. Putin batys ókilderimen kezdesuinde «Asad rejiymi qúlaghan son, Siriya armiyasy tarap keter bolsa, Iraktaghyday haos bolyp, qyzmetterinen alastatylghan әskeriyler de IM «jihadshylarynyn» sapyna qosylyp shygha keledi» dep әrkez qaytalap keledi. Putinning búlaysha jii aituyna qaraghanda, Mәskeu AQSh pen NATO-nyng Asad rejiymi qúlaghan song IM «jihadshylaryna» qarsy belsene soghys ashatynyna senbeydi.

Siriyada bitim ornaghannan song da IM «jihadshylary» tynshymasy anyq. Rejimge qarsy kýres barysynda qolgha týsken jәne jan jaqtan kelgen qarular IM «jihadshylarynyn» qolyna týsse taghy bir mәsele bolmaq.

Reseyde avtonomdy respublika bolyp, Kremli sayasatyna salqyn qaraytyn etnostar jeterlik. Siriyagha Kavkaz, Sheshenstan, Daghystan, Ortalyq Aziya aimaghynan barghan radikaldar elderine oralyp, Reseyding imperiyalyq sayasatyna qarsy kóterilmeydi dep eshkim aita almaydy. Búlardyng Reseyden tәuelsizdik alu jolynda syrttan qanday kómek bolsa da bas tartpaytyny anyq. Sayasy qarym qatynasy ushyghyp túrghan Vashington Reseymen mәselesin IM sodyrlary arqyly sheship aluy da mýmkin. Qazirgi ekonomikasy men sayasaty shatqayaqtap túrghan Resey men Ortalyq Aziyada soghys órti búrq ete qalmaytynyna eshkim kepildik bermeydi.

 Qorytyndy

Ótken jyly da Kremeli Asadty qoldaudy azaytugha kelisip, búnyng óteuine birshama halyqaralyq úpayyn týgendeuge kirisken-di. Biraq, búl kelisimder nәtiyjesiz ayaqtaldy.

Reseyding Siriya preziydenti Bashar Asad rejiymin qoldaudan bas tartu ýshin AQSh hәm Saud Arabiyasymen jasyryn sayasy sauda jýrgizgeni Resey biylik ókilderi tarapynan teristelse de, taraptar arasynda sayasy saudalasu bolghanyn jogharyda aityp óttik. Asad rejiymining ornynda qaluynyng Mәskeu ýshin birtalay manyzy bar. Asadtyng biylikten ketui ýshin taraptar Putinmen qanday sayasy sauda jasaghan bolsa da, bir nәrse aiqyn. Putinning - Siriyany saudagha salu arqyly, Reseyge salynghan sanksiyalardy alyp tastaugha qarsylastaryn kóndire almaghan. Endigi Siriya daghdarysy bitken song da, Reseyding sayasi- ekonomikalyq jaghdayy qiyndaytyny bayqalady. Búl sayasy saudada Resey qarsylastarynyng talabyn qabyl alsa, «azamattyq soghysta Asadtyng óz jenilisi» dep әlemdik sayasy arenada moyyndalmaq.

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