Qoldanbaly ekonomikany zertteu ortalyghy (AERS) Resey monetarlyq sayasatynyng Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna әseri turaly saraptama jasady. Ortalyqtyng sarapshysy Evgeniya Pak ózining zertteuinde 2021 jylghy inflyasiyalyq prosester býkil әlemdik ekonomika ýshin qiyndyq tughyzghanyn aitqan. Biz atalghan materialdy qazaq tiline audaryp, Abai.kz oqyrmandaryna úsynghandy jón kórdik. 

2021 jyldyng segiz aiynda Reseyding Qazaqstan tauar ainalymyndaghy ýlesi 23,5%-dy qúraghan. Osy uaqyt aralyghynda Reseyden import 35,4%, al Reseyge eksport 10,5%-gha jetken.

«Búl fenomenning manyzy óte zor. Reseyden keletin import kólemining arqany esebinen Reseylik inflyasiya respublikadaghy tauar baghasynyng ósuine әser etedi. Reseyding monetarlyq sayasatynyng EAEO elderi ekonomikasyna әser etui ekonomika kólemin salystyrugha әkeledi. Osylaysha Resey Qazaqstan ekonomikasynan shamamen toghyz ese jәne qalghan ýsh memleketting ekonomikasynan 20 ese ýlken ekenin anyqtaymyz», - deydi sarapshy.

Pak Reseyding monetarlyq sayasatynyng EAEO elderinin, sonyng ishinde Qazaqstannyng ekonomikasyna әser etuining teoriyalyq túrghydan birneshe joly bar ekenin atap ótti. Bireui – inflyasiya bolsa, ekinshisi – sauda, ýshinshisi – payyzdyq mólsherlemeler.

Reseydegi monetarlyq sayasatty belgili bir uaqyt kidirispen júmsartu Reseylik inflyasiyanyng ósuine әser etedi, al búl óz kezeginde  Qazaqstandaghy baghanyng ósuine yqpal jasaydy.

Resey Ortalyq Banki Qazaqstandaghy inflyasiyagha janama әser etedi. Sondyqtan Últtyq Bankting búl mәselelege qatysty shara qoldanuyna tura keledi. Búl tezisti Resey bankining zertteui dәleldedi.

Qazaqstandaghy inflyasiyanyng 15,4%-y syrtqy (ekzogendik) faktorlarmen baylanysty ekendigi jәne Reseydegi monetarlyq shok Qazaqstandaghy inflyasiyany týsindiretin jalpy faktorlardyng 2,5%-yn qúraytyny aitylghan. Mәselen, Reseyding Armeniyadaghy monetarlyq sayasatynyn  ýlesi 2,2%-dy, Qyrghyzstanda 2,1%-dy qúraydy.

Sauda joly eki baghytta da júmys istey alady. Teoriyalyq túrghydan qaraghanda Reseydegi monetarlyq sayasatty júmsartu (negizgi stavkanyng tómendeui) rublidin  tengege shaqqanda týsuine alyp kelui kerek, óitkeni rubli aktivteri qyzyghushylyqty joghaltady. Al, búl óz kezeginde Reseylik tauarlardyng Qazaqstandyq tauarlargha qatysty baghasyn neghúrlym tartymdy etedi. Nәtiyjesinde Reseylik tauarlargha Qazaqstannan súranys artyp (almastyru әseri), Reseyden keletin import kólemi úlghayady.

Payyzdyq mólsherlemeler aiyrmashylyghynyng boluy elder arasyndaghy kapital aghynyna әser etedi. Búl eki elding valuta baghasynan bayqalady. Reseydegi negizgi mólsherlemening ósui jәne Qazaqstandaghy bazalyq mólsherleme men aiyrmanyng azangy Reseylik aktivterge súranys arttyrady. Rubli tengege shaqqanda nyghaya týsedi jәne kerisinshe, negizgi mólsherlemening tómendeui jәne bazalyq mólsherleme men aiyrmanyng ósui tengeni kýsheytedi.

Tengening aiyrbas baghamyna Reseyding monetarlyq sayasatynyng әser etetinin  Resey Bankining zertteui rastaydy. Qújatta RUB/KZT dinamikasy 32,7%  syrtqy ShOK bolsa, Reseyding RUB / KZT dinamikasyndaghy monetarlyq sayasatynyng ShOK 10% qúraydy. 2 qarashada sauda-sattyq qorytyndysy boyynsha KASE-de rubli 5,97 tengeden satyldy.

Sonday-aq, Pak 2020-2021jyldary eki elding monetarlyq sayasatyn jýzege asyru baghyttaryn jaqyndastyru әreketin bayqaugha bolatynyn atap ótti. Biraq búl әdeyi istelmeui de mýmkin.

Mysaly, Resey Ortalyq Banki negizgi mólsherlemeni 2020 jylghy aqpanda 6,25%-dan 6%-gha deyin tómendete bastady. Sodan keyin sәuirde 5,5%-gha deyin, mausymda 4,5%-gha deyin, shildede 4,25%-gha deyin tómendedi. Múnday júmsaq monetarlyq sharttar 2021 jyldyng nauryzyna deyin sozyldy. Sodan keyin mólsherleme kóterile bastady jәne qazir ol 7,5%-gha dengeyine jetti.

Sonymen qatar, Últtyq Bank 2020 jylghy aqpanda bazalyq mólsherlemeni 9,25% dengeyinde saqtap qaldy, al nauryzda  12%-gha kýrt kóterdi. Alayda, 2020 jyldyng sәuirinen bastap retteushi bazalyq mólsherlemening birqalypty tómendeui bayqaldy. Búl eki elde 2021 jyldyng basyna deyin sozyldy. Býginde Qazaqstanda jyldyq bazalyq mólsherleme 9,75%-dy  qúraydy.

Biraq simmetriya qayta búzyldy. 2021 jyldyng nauryzynan bastap Resey Ortalyq Banki monetarlyq sayasatty qatandata bastady, al, Qazaqstan 2021 jyldyng shildesinen bastady.

«Payda bolghan asimmetriyany eki eldegi inflyasiyanyng әr týrli dengeyimen týsindiruge bolady. Atap aitqanda, 2021 jyly Resey inflyasiyasy Qazaqstangha qaraghanda anaghúrlym jyldam qarqynmen ósti. 2021 jyldyng tamyz aiynan bastap eki elding monetarlyq sayasatyndaghy týiisu nýktelerin bayqaugha bolady», – dep naqtylady AERC taldaushysy.

Ayjan Temirhan

Abai.kz