Júma, 22 Qarasha 2024
Aqmyltyq 4800 1 pikir 1 Sәuir, 2022 saghat 10:55

Den Syaopin jәne Qytaydyng diplomatiyalyq strategiyasy

Qúdayshyldyghyn aitar bolsaq, Nazarbaev dәuirindegi tәuelsiz Qazaqstannyng diplomatiyalyq jetistigi qomaqty boldy. Áriyne, «әttegen-ay» jerleri de az bolghan joq. Múnda Toqaev dәuirine múragha qalghan Euraziyalyq Ekonomikalyq Odaqty ataugha bolady. Búl odaq Qazaqstandy Reseyge belgili bir dengeyde baylap-matap bergenmen para-par tirlik. Sonyng kesirinen Resey azamattary Qazaqstangha eshqanday shekteusiz kelip, enbek naryghyndaghy jaghdaydy kýn ótken sayyn kýrdelilendirip barady. Múnday jaghdaydyng últtyq qauipsizdigimizge tóndirer qateri de salmaqty. Demek, jana Qazaqstanda qazaq diplomatiyasynyng baghyt-baghdaryn qayta qaraudyng qajettiligi tuyndap otyr. Elimizding aldaghy bolashaghyna, últtyq qauipsizdigimizge jәne әlemdik arenadaghy diplomatiyalyq qarym-qatynasta óz strategiyamyzdy qayta qaraudyng uaqyty kelgen siyaqty. Mýmkin, biyliktegilerge jәne jana Qazaqstannyng diplomatiyalyq baghyt-baghdaryn jasaushylargha mysqalday bolsa da paydasy tiyer degen ýmitpen «Qytay reformasynyn  bas jobalaushysy» Den Syaopinning Qytay diplomatiyasyndaghy tyng reformasy haqyndaghy zertteuimdi úsynudy jón kórdim.  

QKP biylikke kelgen song ghalamdyq sayasattaghy ústanymyn 3 týrli kezenge bóluge bolady:

  • Birinshi. 50-60 jyldardaghy Mao Szedunnyng «eki lageri» teoriyasy. Keyin Qytay men Kenes Odaghy qatynasy tyghyryqqa tirelip, jaulyqqa úlasqan son, sosialistik  lagerding toz-tozy shyghyp, shanyraghy ortasyna týsken bolatyn;
  • Ekinshi. 70-jyldar ghalamshardy ýsh týrli әlemge jikteu teoriyasy qalyptasty;
  • Ýshinshi. Den Syaopindik qalyp. Batys pen shyghys, ontýstik pen soltýstik teoriyasy dep ataldy.

Búl turaly Den Syaopiyn: «Qazir әlemde is jýzindik jәne eng basty mәsele býkil ghalamdyq strategiyalyq mәselening biri -   beybitshilik mәselesi. Endi biri – ekonomikalyq mәsele. Ony damu mәselesi dep qarastyrugha da bolady. Men beybitshilik mәselesin batys pen shyghystyng mәselesi, al damu mәselesin ontýstik pen soltýstik mәselesi dep atar edim. Qoryta aitqanda, búny tórt sózben batys pen shyghys, ontýstik pen soltýstik dep ataghan jón bolady», - dedi.

Batys pen shyghys, ontýstik pen soltýstik teoriyasynyng basty ereksheligi halyqaralyq qatynasta sayasy oilau jýiesi men ekonomikalyq oilau jýiesin layyqty týrde bólip qaraudy kózdeydi. Batys pen shyghystyng qatynasy beybitshilikke úmtylu arqyly soghysty boldyrmau. Búl jerde Den Syaopinning negizgi strategiyasy әlemdik beybitshilikti qorghau arqyly alpauyt elderding basa biyleuine jol bermeu. Bir kezderi Qytay premieri Jou Ynlay ýnemi dәripteytin beybit qatar túrudyng bes prinsiypi negizinde әlemdik geosayasattyng jana tәrtibin ornatu, sol arqyly Qytaygha derbes, óz-ózine qoja boludyng jana diplomatiyalyq kenistigin qalyptastyru maqsatyn kózdeydi. Al ontýstik pen soltýstik qatynasy damyghan elder men damushy elderding ózara qarym-qatynasy negizinde qúrylghan. Búl jerde Den Syaopinning negizgi strategiyasy ontýstik elderding ózara bereke-birligin nyghaytu arqyly ontýstik pen soltýstikti kelissózge shaqyrtu. Sol arqyly damyghan elder men damushy elder kýlli jer sharynda qatar damudyng ortaq mýmkindikterin izdeu arqyly ghalamdyq ekonomikalyq qarym-qatynastyng jana tәrtibin qalyptastyrudy kózdeydi.

Mao Szedunnyng ghalamshardy ýsh týrli әlemge jikteu teoriyasy tek qana ontýstik pen soltýstik qarym-qatynasy negizinde shektelse, Den Syaopinning ghalamdyq sayasattaghy kókjiyegi batys pen shyghys qarym-qatynasy negizinde keneyip, Qytaydyng 80-jyldardaghy batysqa den qongyna negiz qalady.

Maodyng ýsh týrli әlemge jikteu teoriyasy Qytaydy tek ýshinshi dýniyege jatatyn damushy elderding qataryna qosu arqyly Aziya, Afrika, Latyn Amerikasyndaghy ýshinshi dýnie elderimen qarym-qatynasty jaqsartu arqyly ekinshi dýniyege jatatyn eldermen yntymaqtasyp, birinshi dýniyege jatatyn AQSh pen Kenes Odaghy syndy eki alyp memleketting basa biyleuine qarsy túruda asa manyzdy strategiyalyq mәnge ie bolghanymen, syrtqy qarym-qatynastyng basymdyqtaryn tek qana ýshinshi dýniyege jatatyn damushy eldermen ghana shekteu Qytaydyng bolashaq damuy ýshin airyqsha tiyimsiz bolatyn. Búl eng aldymen Qytaydyng ýshinshi dýnie elderindegi kedey dostarynyng aldyndaghy mindettemelerin kóbeytip jiberedi. Ol óz kezeginde Qytaydyng osy zamandaghy damuyna túsau bolady. Al býgingi kýnde Qytay býkil әlemmen, әsirese, damyghan batys әlemimen qarym-qatynas jasaugha erekshe mýddeli. Búl reforma men syrtqa esik ashudyng eng basty qajettiligi.

Ýsh dýniyege jikteu teoriyasynda Qytay ózin beyshara, әlsiz elderding qataryna jatqyzu arqyly kýshtilerden belsendi qorghanu strategiyasyn qoldanyp keldi. Ras, sol dәuirde Qytay ekonomikalyq túrghydan mesheu damyghan elderding qataryna jatqandyghy dausyz. Biraq ol sayasy jәne әskery jaqtan sonshalyq beyshara kýide emes bolatyn. Tipti, әlemning tórtten bir jan sanyn iyeleytin kóptigimen de  ainalasyna aibar shege alushy edi. Áriyne, halyqaralyq qatynasta belsendilik tanytyp, óz yqpal-kýshin arttyruda ýshinshi dýnie elderindegi eski dostarymen yntymaghyn ýzbegeni maqúl. Biraq ol óz mýmkindikterin paydalana otyryp, ýshinshi dýnie elderi shenberinen shyghyp, tipti de keng auqymda halyqaralyq sahnada asa manyzdy ról atqaratyn zor mýmkindigi bar ekendigi dausyz. Den Syaopinning batys pen shyghys, ontýstik pen soltýstik teoriyasy Qytaydy әlemdik sahnada ýshinshi dýniyelik shenberden shyghyp, barynsha derbes, iykemdi diplomatiyalyq strategiyasyn jýzege asyrugha mýmkindik beretin.

Batys pen shyghys, ontýstik pen soltýstik teoriyasy Qytaydy osy eki týrli qatynasta óz ornyn aiqyndaugha iytermeleytin. Múnda Qytay batys pen shyghys qarym-qatynasynda ózin shyghystyqtardyng sanatyna jatqyzady. Al ontýstik pen soltýstik qatynasynda ózderin ontýstikting qatarynan kóredi. Ol Qytaydyng halyqaralyq rólinde qos róldi qatar oinaugha tiyis bolatyn. Múnyng Qytaygha qanday paydasy bar degen súraq óz-ózinen tuyndaydy. Amerikalyq әigili sayasattanushy Djonatan Pollak ol turaly: «Ne sebepti Qytay Vashington men Mәskeuding diplomatiyalyq strategiyasynda sonshalyq manyzdy rólge iye, al, әlemning basqa elderi de onyng әr qimylyn jiti baqylap otyrady? Onyng jauaby Qytay ózin kóbinde qauip-qater astyndaghy ezilip-janshylghan elderding obrazynda kórsetkisi keledi, biraq ol ózining әlemdik geosayasattaghy sayasi-ekonomikalyq jәne әskery tәsilderin sheber qoldana biledi. Sonyng nәtiyjesinde  Qytay әlemdegi barlyq elder ýshin erekshe manyzdy elge ainalary dausyz», - degen bolatyn.

Shynynda, Qytaydyng naqty maydany aiqyn kórinbeytin. Biraq,  óte iykemdi diplomatiyalyq róli ony HH ghasyrdyng 80-jyldary jәne 90-jyldardyng basynda jan-jaqtyly derbes, óz-ózine qoja boluday beybit diplomatiyalyq tabysty sayasatynyng syry deuge bolady.

Soghys qaupi seyilgen joq, biraq Dýniyejýzilik soghystan saqtanugha bolady

Den Syaopin dәuiri bastalghanda Qytay ghalamdyq geosayasatty qalay baghalau kerek, soghys qaupi tónip túr ma, әlde beybitshilik basty qúndylyqqa ainala ala ma, syrtqy әlemge qalay qarau mәselesi bir memleketting syrtqy sayasatynyng baghyt-baghdaryn aiqyndaytyn eng basty tetik sanalady. Qytaydyng sol kezdegi jan sany AQSh, Japoniya, Kenes Odaghy jәne tútas Europa elderining jan sanynyng qosyndysymen parapar bolatyn. Al ekonomikasy damyghan eldermen salystyrghanda qayyrshy halde dese de bolady. Osynday jaghdayda  beybit damu ýshin soghys pen beybitshilik mәselesine beyjay qaraugha әste bolmaytyn edi.

Qytaydyng әlemdik geosayasatqa negizgi mejesi Mao Szedunnyng dәuirinde «soghys qaupi tónip túr. Erte bastan alapat soghysqa qamdanu kerek» degen úranmen ómir sýretin. HH ghasyrdyng 80-jyldarynyng basynda «soghys qaupinen saqtanu mýmkin emes, biraq ony keshiktiruge bolady» degen kózqaras ýstem oryngha shyqty. HH ghasyrdyng 80-jyldarynyng orta sheninde Den Syaopin ózining jana payymyn ortagha salyp: «Soghys qaupi әli seyilgen joq. Biraq dýniyejýzilik soghystan saqtanugha bolady», - degen oiyn aitty.

Shynynda, soghys qaupi kýni býginge deyin seyilmepti. Tipti ol Qazaqstannyng irgesinde qolamtasy qozdap, týtini byqsyp jatypty. Imperiyanyng eng songhy diktatorlarynyng kózi qúrymayynsha, ghalamdyq soghystan saqtanu mýmkin emes eken.

Den Syaopinning payymdauy myna shyndyqtargha negizdelgen bolatyn. Álemdik soghysty bastaugha tek eki alyp imperiyanyng mýmkindigi bar. Al endi Kenes Odaghy men AQSh bir-birin jer betinen joq qylyp jiberetindey qúdiretke iye. Sol sebepti ekeuara terrorlyq tendik qalyptasqan. Eshkimning de aldymen qaru júmsaugha jýregi daualamaydy. Odan qalsa, ekeuining de әlemdik strategiyasy sәtsizdikke úshyrap, soghystyng qúighynyna tereng batyp ketti. Eki jaq ta qarulanu bәsekesin toqtatpaghanymen, Kenes Odaghy auyr daghdarystyq jaghdaygha tap keldi. Taghy bir әlemdik soghys ashugha mýmkindigi shekteuli. Tipti kelisimning joldaryn izdeuge bettep barady. Búdan tys, әlemde soghysty tejep, beybitshilik ýshin kýresushi kýshter soghysqúmarlardan qúdiretti bola týsude.  Yadrolyq soghysty ansaytyn әperbaqan aqymaqtar azayyp keledi. Álemde jana tehnologiyalyq tónkeris qaryshtap damuda, bolashaqtaghy ghalamdyq bәseke negizinen ekonomika men ghylym-tehnikanyng quattylyghyna baylanysty bolady. Áskery quat ekinshi oryngha yghysady. Kenes Odaghy men AQSh búl jaghdaylarmen sanaspauy mýmkin emes.

Býgingi Putindik Reseyding eng ýlken qateligi de ekonomika men ghylym-tehnikanyng soghysta sheshushi faktor bolatyndyghyn eskermegen әperbaqandyghymen baylanysty bolatyn.

Qytaydyng diplomatiyalyq strategiyasy soghysu ma, әlde beybitshilik pe? Týbirinen alghanda, onyng ómir sýrui ghalamdyq tәrtipke qalay qarauda jatyr. Qytaydyng pozisiyasyndaghy ózgeris onyng syrtqy diplomatiyalyq sayasatyndaghy janarumen baylanysty bolatyn. Atap aitqanda, reforma jasau, esik ashu, basqa әlemmen beybit, belsendi qarym-qatynasqa týsu. Búrynghyday eski әlemdi tónkerip tastau degen strategiya endi jýrmeydi. Búl ózgeris Qytaydy әlemdik tónkeristegi óz missiyasynan teris ainaldyryp, memleketting naqty mýddesin shyghar týiin etip oilanugha mәjbýrlegen bolatyn.   Osydan son, syrttan jau izdeude, batys әlemine bolghan jaulyq pighyldan ainyp, kýlli әlemge qúshaghyn ashatyn «Adamzattyng bәrin sýi, bauyrym dep» degen ústanymgha  naqty bet búrdy. Osyghan sәikes Qytay aqparat qúraldaryndaghy «imperializm» degen siyaqty qatqyl iydeologiyalyq terminder birtindep qoldanystan alynyp, «basa biyleu», «zorlyqty sayasat», «damyghan elder» , «asa iri elder» degen siyaqty birshama júmsarghan sayasy terminder qoldanysqa endi. Sodan bastap, qarapayym halyqtyng qúlaghyna da «Amerika - qaghaz jolbarys», «qanday soghystan da taysalmaymyz», «kýlli әlemdegi ezilgen halyqty azat etemiz!» degen siyaqty sayasy úrandar qoldanystan shyghyp, birtindep úmytyla bastady. Onyng ornyna «qajet bolsa, Ibilspen de til tabysayyq» degen siyaqty kapitalistik әlemmen de erkin barys-kelis jasaugha esik ashyldy.

Den Syaopinning ghalamdyq geosayasatqa baghyttalghan dúrys payymy Qytaydyng diplomatiyalyq sayasatyn soghysqa dayyndaludan beybit kelissózge qaray búrylys jasatty. «Soghys tónkeristi tudyra ma nemese tónkeris soghysty tejey me?» degen siyaqty mәsele endigәri Den Syaopindi qyzyqtyrmaytyn boldy. Ol ýshin eng manyzdysy Qytaydyng damuy ýshin beybit jәne ornyqty halyqaralyq sayasy orta qajet. Sol arqyly barlyq nazardy osy zamandandyru qúrylysyna audaru qajet. Búl turaly Den Syaopiyn: «Qytay tym kedey. Ózimizdi damytu tek beybit sayasy orta bolghanda ghana mýmkin bolady. Beybit sayasy ortagha qol jetkizu ýshin әlemdegi barlyq beybitshilik sýigish kýshtermen birlesuge tiyispiz» - dep atap kórsetti. Beybit diplomatiyalyq sayasat búdan keyin tek qana  kózboyaushylyq ýshin aityla salatyn úran emes, Qytaydyng strategiyalyq mýddesinen bastau alatyn eng negizgi sayasattarynyng bireuine ainaldy. Soghys - ol uaqytty úrlap,  baylyqty suday shashatyn  qorqynyshty apat. Áskeri kóp, jer kólemi alyp Qytay ýshin soghys sonshalyqty qorqynyshty bolmauy da mýmkin. Biraq, soghys bastalyp ketse, onyng órtin óshiru óte qiyngha soghady. Sonymen birge onsyzda neshe on jyl boyy  ekonomikasy turalaghan Qytaydyng osy zamandandyru ýrdisin odan beter turalatyp, tipti toqtatyp tastaydy. Búl onsyz da siniri shyqqan Qytaydy tyghyryqqa tirep, damudyng bar mýmkindiginen aiyrady. Kerisinshe, jan-jaqtyly beybit diplomatiyalyq qatynasty damytyp, kýlli әlemmen belsendi istestik ornatqanda ghana Qytaylyq osy zamandandyru qúrylysy ýshin shúghyl qajet tehnologiya men kapitaldy qolgha keltiruge bolady.

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