Juyrda Forbes.kz saytynda belgili sayasatker Dosym Sәtpaevtyng «Týrki aliyansy jәne geosayasy tepe-tendik» atty maqalasy jaryq kórdi. Maqalada sayasatker Dosym Sәtpaev preziydent Toqaevtyng Týrkiyagha jasaghan resmy is-sapary men onda qabyldanghan manyvzdy qújattargha qatysty ózining kózqaras-pikirin jazypty. Biz orys tilindegi atalghan maqalany qazaqshalap, Abai.kz oqyrmandarynyng talqysyna úsynghandy jón kórdik...

Preziydent Qasym-Jomart Toqaevtyng osy jolghy Týrkiyagha sapary búrynghysynan ózgeshe. Sebebi, búl kezdesu postkenestik kenistiktegi qatang geosayasy transformasiya kezinde ótude.

Geografiyalyq jaghday

2022 jylghy 24 aqpannan bastap Ortalyq Aziya jana geosayasy jәne ekonomikalyq qauip-qater aimaghyna kirdi. Aymaqtyng bedeline de qauip bar. Geosayasy qater Reseyding agressivti jәne boljaugha kelmeytin syrtqy sayasatymen baylanysty, búl aimaqta qalyptasqan geosayasy tepe-tendikting búzylu qaupin tóndiredi. Abyroy - bedeline qaupi Ortalyq Aziya elderining kópshiligi EAS jәne ÚQShÚ shenberindegi Reseyding әriptesteri bolghandyghymen baylanysty. Búl seriktestik barghan sayyn jaghymsyz bolyp barady. Ekonomikalyq qater Reseyge qarsy qatang sanksiyalarmen jәne Reseyding qarjy-ekonomikalyq jaghynan oqshaulanuymen tikeley baylanysty. Búl qazirding ózinde Ortalyq Aziya elderine kóptegen ekonomikalyq, qarjylyq jәne әleumettik problemalar tughyzdy.

Geografiyalyq jaghynan Qazaqstan Resey men Qytay siyaqty postimperiyalyq sindromgha úshyraghan, geosayasy ambisiyasy myqty elderding arasynda qysyla ornalasqan. Biraq Ukrainadaghy úzaqqa sozylghan soghys, Reseyding birtalay uaqytqa oqshaulanuy erte me, kesh pe ony postkenestik kenistikte qarjylyq-ekonomikalyq jәne әskeriy-sayasy әlsireuine әkep soghady. Búl Qytay kelip toltyrugha tyrysatyn Ortalyq Aziya ýshin qauipti vakuumdy tudyruy mýmkin. Degenmen sarapshylardyng pikirinshe, Ukrainadaghy soghys bastalghaly beri  Reseyding Qytaygha degen baghasy tolyq aqtalmady. Beyjing men Mәskeuding AQSh degen ortaq jaulary bar ekeni týsinikti. Sy Szinpinning el basqaryp kele jatqan uaqytynda da qazirgi Putinning kezi siyaqty úranshyl-patriottyq kónil-kýy artty. Biraq Qytaydyng Reseyden aiyrmashylyghy, Qytay tauarlarynyng negizgi naryghy AQSh pen EO ekenin eskerip, ózining ekonomikalyq mýddelerin úmytqan emes. Qytaylyq kompaniyalar men qarjy úiymdary qayta sanksiya salynu qaupi bar ekenin bilip, Reseymen týrli salalardaghy yntymaqtastyqtan bas tartady. Sonymen qatar, Qytay Reseydi ainalyp ótip, Qazaqstan, Ázirbayjan, Rumyniya, Vengriya, Slovakiya jәne Chehiya arqyly Germaniyagha qaray temirjol baghytyn iske qosty.

Reseyge qaraghanda Qytay geoekonomika men "júmsaq kýshke" kóbirek kónil bóledi. Biraq eski geosayasy maqalda aitylghanday,"Aldymen dindar keledi, sosyn kópes keledi, sonynda әsker keledi", yaghni, Ortalyq Aziyadaghy qarqyndy investisiyalyq belsendilikten keyin uaqyt óte kele Tәjikstandaghyday aimaqtaghy Qytaydyng әskeriy-sayasy kýshi basym bola bastaydy.

Áriyne, qazir Mәskeu men Beyjinning maqsattary әrtýrli. Qytaydyng mýddesinde –Tayvani, Reseydiki -Ukraina. Biraq Qytay ýshin Qazaqstan men Ortalyq Aziyanyng basqa da elderi shiykizat kózi men Qytay jýkterining tranziytindegi seriktes qana emes, sonymen qatar Shynjang men Aughanstandaghy ónirlik qauipsizdikti qamtamasyz etu túrghysynan da manyzdy.

Týrik qalqany

2022 jyly 24 aqpanda Forbes.kz – de jariyalanghan "Qazaqstan Reseyding Ukrainagha qarsy geosayasy oiynynyng kepiline qalay ainaldy" degen maqalamda men mynaghan basa nazar audardym: "Qazaqstan qauipsizdigining negizderining biri ónirdegi kýshterding geosayasy tepe-tendigin túraqty qoldau jәne saqtau boluy tiyis. Búl Reseyge de, Qytaygha da qatysty. Osynday tepe-tendikting biri týrki memleketterining neghúrlym tyghyz әskeriy-sayasy yntymaqtastyghy boluy mýmkin".

Bir qyzyghy, Toqaevtyng Týrkiyagha sapary kezinde preziydent Rejep Tayyp Erdoghan Qazaqstan men Týrkiyanyng "Ukrainanyng egemendigi men aumaqtyq tútastyghy jolyndaghy shiyelenisti beybit jolmen sheshu turaly kózqarasy bir-birine sәikes keledi" jәne «búl soghys týrki memleketterining ekijaqty yntymaqtastyghynyng manyzyn, týrki halyqtary degen bir shanyraqtyng astyna jinala týsuining manyzyn kórsetti» degen kózqarastaryn bildirip qana qoymay Týrkiyanyng «qazaqstandyq bauyrlastarynyng túraqtylyghy, tynyshtyghy men qauipsizdigi ýshin jauapkershilik alugha dayyn " ekenin atap ótti. Eger Resey elding aumaqtyq tútastyghyna qauip tóndirgen jaghdayda Týrkiyanyng Qazaqstangha qoldau kórsetuge dayyn ekendigining aiqyn belgisi. Aytpaqshy, Qazaqstan Preziydentining Týrkiya Respublikasyna memlekettik sapary ayasynda eki elding qorghanys ministrlerining kezdesui ótti. Qazaqstan men Týrkiya arasyndaghy ekijaqty әskery yntymaqtastyqty retteytin birqatar qújattargha qol qoyyldy. Sonymen qatar, Qazaqstan men Týrkiya birlesip ANKA úshqyshsyz úshu apparattaryn jinaudy josparlap otyrghany, sonday-aq týrik tarapy Qazaqstannyng Qaruly Kýshterine ÚÚA-gha tehnikalyq qyzmet kórsetu jәne jóndeu ýshin tehnologiyalardy berip, personaldy oqytudy josparlap otyrghany aityldy. Búdan basqa, Erdoghannyng Qazaqstandaghy Qantar oqighalarynyng baghalanuyna silteme jasay otyryp aitqan osy mәlimdemesi kez - kelgen jana maydannyng payda boluyn boldyrmau ýshin Toqaevtyng Qazaqstandyq sayasy jәne biznes elitanyng ishindegi zandylyghyn qoldaugha tiyis boldy.

Syrtqy qauipterge keletin bolsaq, Ukrainada soghys bastalghannan keyin Resey preziydentining búrynghy kómekshisi Vladislav Surkovtyng sózine múqiyat bolghan jón. Ol ótken jyldyng sonynda ózining kezekti maqalasynda «Resey imperiyanyng múrageri retinde basqa aimaqtarda haos jasay alady» degendi jazghan. 2024 jyl kele jatyr. Aldaghy preziydenttik saylauda Putin joghary reytingten kórinui kerek. Jalpy nasihatpen múny jasaugha bolady. Biraq erte me, kesh pe Reseyding әleumettik-ekonomikalyq mәseleleri ósip, janadan jau izdeuge basshylyqty mәjbýr etedi.

Biraq Qazaqstan kelesi haos aimaghy ma? Ukrainadaghy әskery jetistikterining bolmauy jәne oghan lend-lizing ayasynda Batystyng kómegi Reseyding manyzdy әskeri, qarjylyq, aqparattyq-nasihattyq jәne basqa resurstaryn ózine tartyp, Kremliding Qazaqstangha qarauyna múrsha bermeydi. Al, eger qaray qalatyn jaghday bolsa, onda taghy da Reseyge kez- kelgen jaghdayda Qytaydyng Qazaqstandaghy jәne Ortalyq Aziyadaghy geosayasy jәne geoekonomikalyq mýddelerin eskeruge tura keledi.

Biraq Qazaqstan Týrkiyamen әskeriy-sayasy baylanystardy nyghaytyp, ony Resey men Qytaygha qatysty geosayasy jәne ekonomikalyq tepe-tendikti qúru jónindegi sharalardyng manyzdy bóligi retinde qarastyra otyryp, kez kelgen yqtimal jaghymsyz ssenariylerge dayyn boluy kerek. Onyng ýstine, Qazaqstan kóptegen osal jerleri boyynsha 2014 jylghy Ukrainany qatty eske týsiredi. Álsiz qauipsizdik jýiesinen bastap qoghamdaghy bólinisti úlghaytyp, halyqtyng biregeyligine syzat týsiruge qúmartyp otyrghan reseylik propagandalyq arnalardyng teris әserine deyin. Men ózimning búrynghy jazbalarymda qauipsizdigimizding basty kepili tek geosayasy tepe-tendik ghana emes, sonday-aq sayasy reformalar negizindegi Qazaqstandaghy úzaq merzimdi sayasy túraqtylyq, halyqtyng ómir sýru dengeyin arttyru jәne adamy kapitaldy ósiru ýshin tiyimdi әleumettik-ekonomikalyq ózgerister, sonday-aq syrtqy oiynshylar qoldanatyn " besinshi baghan " bolmauy ýshin Qazaqstan azamattary ózderin óz elimen ghana baylanystyruy kerek ekenin birneshe ret atap óttim.

Jaqynda ghana medialyq arandatushy Tigran Keosayan patshasy men onyng qaramaghyndaghylardyng dәstýrli qazaqstandyq kópvektorly sayasatyn syzyp tastaghanyn óz auzymen jetkizdi emes pe? Qalay bolghanda da el basshylyghyna "Sen kimning jaghyndasyn?» degen kóldeneng súraq qoyylady. Al, búl Qazaqstan men Reseyding әrtýrli syrtqy sayasy modelideri arasyndaghy qarama-qayshylyq.

Týrki memleketteri úiymy

Búrynghy imperiyalardyng tarihy jýgin kótergen Týrkiya men Resey bir-birine úqsas dep sanaytyn sarapshylardyng pikirimen de kelisuge bolady, óitkeni olar strategiyalyq mýddelerin keneytu arqyly subónirlik derjavalardyng rólin nyghaytugha tyrysady. Ayyrmashylyq tek týrik liyderi dindi baylanystyrushy qúral retinde belsendi qoldanady, al, Resey preziydenti kenestik iydeologiyanyng elementteri bar "retrospektivti patriotizm" degenge sýienedi. Sonymen birge Resey de, Týrkiya da Ortalyq Aziyany ózderining geosayasy yqpalynyng salasy retinde qarastyrady. Týrkiya modernizasiyalyq islamnyng ortalyqtarynyng biri retinde rólin nyghaytugha tyrysady, óitkeni qazirgi uaqytta aimaqtyng barlyq memleketteri zayyrly bolsa da, Ortalyq Aziyanyng barlyq elderindegi músylmandar sanynyng ósui bolashaqta aimaqty músylman әlemine baghyttay alady. Sondyqtan Týrkiyamen yntymaqtastyqta Ankaranyng geosayasy mýddeleri Qazaqstannyng últtyq mýddelerine qayshy kelmeytindey etip qúryluy tiyis. Týrkiyanyng oiyn erejesine jyghylmay, Qazaqstan ózining kópvektorly sayasatyn ústanuy kerek.

Týrkitildes birlestikke keletin bolsaq, Týrkitildes memleketterding Yntymaqtastyq Kenesining atauyn Týrkiya, Qazaqstan, Ázerbayjan, Qyrghyzstan jәne Ózbekstan tolyq qúqyly mýshe retinde, al Týrikmenstan men Vengriya bayqaushylar bolyp tabylatyn týrki memleketteri úiymy dep ózgertu týrki әriptestigin әskeriy-sayasy saladaghy tyghyz yntymaqtastyqqa ainaldyrudyng alghashqy simvoldyq qadamy boldy.

Ótken jyldyng qarasha aiynda Ystambúlda ótken Týrki sammiytining qorytyndysy boyynsha eki qújatqa: Ystambúl Deklarasiyasyna jәne "Týrki әlemining kórinisi – 2040" qújatyna qol qoyylghandyghyna nazar audaryldy. Ystambúl deklarasiyasynda Týrki memleketteri úiymyna mýshe elderding qauipsizdigi men túraqtylyghyn kýsheytu, onyng ishinde egemendikti, aumaqtyq tútastyqty jәne halyqaralyq moyyndalghan shekaralardyng myzghymastyghyn qamtamasyz etu isinde qoldau arqyly jýretini turaly aitylghan. Búl tarmaq Ázirbayjannyng Armeniyamen qaqtyghysynan keyin payda boldy. Búl Ázirbayjannyng jenisine jәne Tauly Qarabaqtaghy basyp alynghan aumaqtaryn qaytaruyna әkeldi. Búl qaqtyghysta Týrkiya Ázirbayjangha belsendi әskery qoldau kórsetti, ony postkenestik belsendilikting jana dengeyine shyghardy jәne Ortalyq Aziya elderining aldynda әskery bedelin kóterdi.

Postkenestik kenistiktegi eki elding sәtti әskery kooperasiyasy, әskery mindetti sózben emes naqty is jýzinde sheshuining Reseyding qatysuynsyz iske asqany Resey ýshin asa jaqsy dýnie emes edi. Týrkiya sonymen birge Ukrainany belsendi týrde qoldady, Reseyding Ukrainadaghy arnayy әskery operasiyasyn «Soghys» dep atady jәne Montre Konvensiyasynyng erejelerine sәikes Bosfor men Dardanelldi Resey әskery kemelerine jauyp tastady. Sonymen birge Ankara Ukraina men Resey delegasiyalary arasyndaghy kelissózderde, onyng ishinde Týrkiyanyng manyzdy geosayasy oiynshy retindegi mәrtebesin nyghaytu ýshin belsendi deldal boldy.

Ekonomikalyq yntymaqtastyq salasynda týrki memleketteri úiymy sonday-aq elder arasynda sauda jәne ózara investisiyalar ýshin qolayly jaghdaylar jasaudy ózining basym baghyty dep sanaydy. 2022 jylghy 1 qyrkýiekke deyin teng qatysu jәne teng dauys beru qaghidattaryna sýiengen týrki investisiyalyq qoryn qúrudy ayaqtau josparlanyp otyr. Sonday – aq, "Shyghys-Batys" Halyqaralyq Transkaspiy kólik dәlizining bir bóligi bola alatyn týrli ekonomikalyq aimaqtardy qúruda aqparat jәne tәjiriybemen almasu salasyndaghy ýkimettik qúrylymdar arasyndaghy ózara týsinistik turaly memorandum boyynsha júmys jýrgizilude. Resey aumaghynda kóliktik-logistikalyq mәseleler tuyndaghan song Qazaqstan basqa joldardy izdeuge mәjbýr. Qazaqstandyq tauarlardy Europagha jetkizuge arnalghan baghyttardyng biri- Ázirbayjan, Qazaqstan, Gruziyanyng qatysuymen qúrylghan Transkaspiy halyqaralyq kólik baghyty bolyp otyr. Keyin jobagha Ukraina, Rumyniya, Týrkiya, Qytay jәne Polisha qosyldy. Sarapshylardyng aituynsha, Týrkitildes elderding qatysuymen Jana Jibek joly qúryluda, ol Qytaydan Europagha deyin barady, sol arqyly jylyna 10 mln tonnagha deyin, 200 myng konteynerge deyin tasymaldaugha bolady. Týrkiyagha sapary barysynda Qazaqstan Preziydenti Transkaspiy halyqaralyq kólik baghdarynyng әleuetin paydalanu qajettigi turaly mәlimdegeni tanqalarlyq jaghday emes.

Ónirlik birlestikke jeti qadam

Týrki memleketterin shenberindegi neghúrlym tyghyz ózara is-qimyl әlemdik ekonomikalyq prosesterding shiykizattyq shet aimaghynda qalyp qoymau ýshin Ortalyq Aziyanyng ónirlik birlestigin qúrudy jedeldetui mýmkin. Búl birlestikting ózegi ónirdegi eki iri memleketting - Qazaqstan men Ózbekstannyng Germaniya men Fransiyanyng analogy bola alatyn ózara is - qimyly boluy kerek edi. Onyng ýstine OA shenberindegi ónirlik birlestik - búl býkil ónirding ekonomikalyq әleuetin ashu ghana emes, sonday-aq dos emes eski jәne jana әlemdik yqpal etu ortalyqtary tarapynan ekonomikalyq, sayasy jәne iydeologiyalyq intervensiyalarynan qorghau.

Búl rette ónirlik kýn tәrtibi jeti tarmaqtan túruy tiyis. Birinshiden, qauipsizdik jәne týrki memleketteri arasynda birynghay qorghanys kenistigin qalyptastyru. Ekinshiden, OA, Ázirbayjan, Týrkiya jәne Vengriya elderining biznes-qoghamdastyghyn ónirlik kooperasiyanyng qozghaltqyshy retinde paydalanu. Ýshinshiden, shekara manyndaghy ózara is-qimyldy jәne salalyq yntymaqtastyqty jandandyru salasyndaghy ónirlik ózara is-qimyldy qoldau. Tórtinshiden, ónir elderinde tenizge tikeley shyghu mýmkindigi bolmaghan jaghdayda eksporttyq-importtyq operasiyalar qúnynyng jәne olardy jýzege asyru uaqytynyng tómendeui. Búl tek Transkaspiy halyqaralyq kólik baghytyn damytu turaly ghana emes, sonymen birge Ortalyq Aziyany Pәkistan porttarymen baylanystyru ýshin Aughanstan biyligining qatysuymen Ózbekstan bastaghan transafgan temir jolynyng qúrylysyn jýzege asyrudy qoldau turaly. Besinshiden, ekologiyalyq tәuekelderdi azaytu jәne su-energetikalyq konsorsium qúru. Altynshydan, adamy kapitaldyng sapasyn arttyru. Mysaly, Vengriya Ýkimeti týrki memleketteri úiymynyng studentteri ýshin qosymsha stiypendiyalyq baghdarlamalar úsyndy. Jetinshiden, týrki tildes elder arasynda, birinshi kezekte jastar ýshin birynghay aqparattyq kenistik qalyptastyru. Alghashqy qadam shtab-pәteri Týrkistanda ornalasqan Halyqaralyq teledidar arnasyn qúru jónindegi Qazaqstandyq bastama boluy mýmkin.

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