Belarusi әskeri Ukrainagha basyp kirui mýmkin deydi batystyq sarapshylar. Oghan birneshe fakti men boljamdar bar.

Belarusi Ukrainagha soghys ashushy taraptyng biri. Tikeley agressiyagha qatyspasa da, Ukrainagha shabuyl jasau maqsatynda óz aumaghyn Resey әskerine bergen el retinde atalmysh soghysqa tikeley qatysy bar. Ukraina jerine jasalghan zymyran soqqylary men әue shabuylynyng ýshten bir bóligi Belarusi aumaghy arqyly jasalghan.

Sarapshylar Ukrainagha Belarusi әskeri ashyq soghys jariyalap, basyp kirui mýmkindigin aitady. Qauip songhy aptada artqan. Kremliding Minskke degen qysymy kýsheyip, Lukashenkony soghysqa aralasugha ýgittep jatyr. Resey biyligi Belarusi әskerining soghysqa aralasyp, Ukrainanyng soltýstik baghytynan basyp kiruine zәru. Sebebi Kiyev elding ontýstiginde sәtti shabuyldar jasap, Herson oblysyn azat etudi bastady. Resey әskeri qolyndaghy Herson qalasyna jaqyndap, basqynshylardyng alghashqy qorghanys shebin búzdy. Taraptar arasyndaghy artilleriyalyq soqqy almasu qarqyny artty. Resey әskeri ukrain jasaqtaryn Hersongha kiruine kedergi jasauda.

Ukraina jasaqtary Melitopoli baghytynda da sәtti shabuyldar jasauda. Songhy aptada qalagha ondaghan shaqyrym jaqyndaghan. Eger Ukraina jasaqtary basqynshy qolyndaghy Herson men Melitopoli qalalaryn azat etse, onda Resey Qyrymgha baratyn qúrlyq jolynan aiyrylady. Al Kiyev batys bergen alys qashyqtyqtaghy nysandy joiygha qabiletti zymyran keshenderining kómegimen aldaghy uaqytta Qyrym kópirine soqqy jasau mýmkindigine ie bolady. Eger Mәskeu ýshin qorqynyshty sanalatyn atalmysh ssenariy iske assa, onda Resey Qyrymgha tek qana әue jәne su jolymen barmaq. Búl әskery tehnika men jeke qúramdy jetkizuge ýlken kedergi degen sóz.

Resey ukrain әskerining nazaryn basqa baghytqa búru maqsatynda, ekinshi front ashyluy tiyis dep sanaydy. Sondyqtan Belarusi әskeri Ukrainagha soghys ashyp, Kiyev oblysyna qayta qauip tóndire alsa, onda Ukrainanyng ontýstik baghyttaghy shabuyly әldeqayda bәsender edi. Sebebi el astanasyn qorghau manyzdy bolmaq.

Belarusi әskeri Reseymen birigip 8 shildege deyin sozylatyn әskery jattyghudy bastady. Onda Minsk әskeri qalalardy basyp alu, ózennen ótu, qorghanys shebin búzu, taktikalyq sheginis, әue shabuyldaryn jasau men zymyran soqqylaryn pysyqtamaq. 2022 jyldyng qantarynda bastalghan Resey-Belarusi әskery jattyghuynyng sony Resey әskerining ýsh baghytta Ukrainagha basyp kiruimen ayaqtaldy. Atalmysh jattyghu Belarusi әskerining Ukrainanyng soltýstigine basyp kiruimen jalghasyn tabuy mýmkin.

Alayda Lukashenko biyligi Ukrainagha basyp kirse, birqatar tәuekelderge tap bolmaq. Álemdik qauymdastyqtyng Belarusity qyspaqqa aluy artady jәne Minsk ekonomikalyq qiyndyqty ensere almay, Resey qúshaghyna enudi jalghastyrady. Belarusi әskeri Ukraina jerinde ýlken shyghyngha úshyrasa, onda Minsktegi Lukashenko taghy shayqala bastauy әbden mýmkin. Sebebi rejimdi ústap túrghan әsker men Resey kepildigi. Alayda Resey búl joly Belarusi kóshelerine milliondaghan adam shyqsa, nópir halyqty toqtatar nóker jibere almauy mýmkin. Atalmysh faktorlardy eskergen Lukashenko tәuekelge bara ma?

Ashat Qasenghaliy

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