Memleketting eng basty baylyghy adam desek, Qazaqstannyng qanshalyqty bay ekendigine biraz toqtala ketsem.

Qúday qalasa, tabighy ósimimiz kemimese 2013 jyldyng ortasyna qaray 17 mln.gha jetedi ekenbiz. 1991 jylghy sanymyzdy dóngeletip aitqanda 17 (16.9) mln. ekenin eskersek, sol dengeyge 22 jyldan keyin jeteyin dep túrmyz. Al shyn mәninde tabighy ósimge, syrttan kelgen 1 mln. qandastarymyzdy qosqanda sanymyz búdan da kóp boluy kerek emes pe edi degen súraq tuyndaydy.

Qazaqstan ózining damuyn Ózbekstan siyaqty eldermen salystyryp, qarqyndy damyp jatqanyn jii aitady. Endi sol biylikting әdetine salyp halyq sanaghyn da Ózbekstanmen salystyryp kórsek. Ózbekstannyng halyq sany 1991 jyly 20 mln. 708 myndy qúrasa,  2012 jylghy 1 qazandaghy derek boyynsha 29 mln. 874 myng bolghan eken. Biylghy jyldyng sonyna qaray 30 mln.gha jetetinin eskersek 22 jylda Ózbekstan 10 mln.gha kóbeyedi. Al Qazaqstan 22 jylda búrynghy 17 mln.na jetedi. Halyq sany eng basty sayasat ekenin, elding damu kórsetkishi ekenin eskersek, bizding osy kýnge deyingi әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jetistikterimizge kýdikter úyalaydy.

Memleketting eng basty baylyghy adam desek, Qazaqstannyng qanshalyqty bay ekendigine biraz toqtala ketsem.

Qúday qalasa, tabighy ósimimiz kemimese 2013 jyldyng ortasyna qaray 17 mln.gha jetedi ekenbiz. 1991 jylghy sanymyzdy dóngeletip aitqanda 17 (16.9) mln. ekenin eskersek, sol dengeyge 22 jyldan keyin jeteyin dep túrmyz. Al shyn mәninde tabighy ósimge, syrttan kelgen 1 mln. qandastarymyzdy qosqanda sanymyz búdan da kóp boluy kerek emes pe edi degen súraq tuyndaydy.

Qazaqstan ózining damuyn Ózbekstan siyaqty eldermen salystyryp, qarqyndy damyp jatqanyn jii aitady. Endi sol biylikting әdetine salyp halyq sanaghyn da Ózbekstanmen salystyryp kórsek. Ózbekstannyng halyq sany 1991 jyly 20 mln. 708 myndy qúrasa,  2012 jylghy 1 qazandaghy derek boyynsha 29 mln. 874 myng bolghan eken. Biylghy jyldyng sonyna qaray 30 mln.gha jetetinin eskersek 22 jylda Ózbekstan 10 mln.gha kóbeyedi. Al Qazaqstan 22 jylda búrynghy 17 mln.na jetedi. Halyq sany eng basty sayasat ekenin, elding damu kórsetkishi ekenin eskersek, bizding osy kýnge deyingi әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jetistikterimizge kýdikter úyalaydy.

Ózge diasporalardyng jappay kóship ketuin syltau etuding keregi joq. Sebebi ketkenderding kópshiligining qayta kelgenin, oghan 1 mln. qandastardyng kelgenin qosqanda kerisinshe halyq sanymyz kóbengi kerek edi, qalay bolghanda da. Ózbekstan biz siyaqty syrttan qandastaryn әkelgen joq. Kerisinshe kóship ketushileri kóp boldy. Sonyng ózinde bala tuudan aldyna jan salmay 10 mln.gha kóbeyip otyr. Ózbekstan biz siyaqty balalaryn shetelge satyp jatqan joq. Eger jaghdayymyz jaqsy bolsa, biz nege balalarymyzdy shetelge satamyz degen zandy súraq tuyndaydy?

Osy problemalar tónireginde eki mәselege toqtalghym keledi. Birinshisi, halyq sanaghy tóniregindegi kýmәndar. Ekinshisi halyq sanynyng kóbeymeuining sebep saldarlary.

Aldymen biylikting halyq sanyna qatysty kýmәndi sandaryn jasyrmay aita ketken dúrys. Mysalygha, 2007 jyly halyq sany 15 mln. 394 myng bolsa, 2012 jyly 1 qazanda 16 mln 856 myngha jetipti. Eger de osy jyldardaghy jyldyq tabighy ósimning shamamen 130 myng ekenin eskersek, 5 jylda 650 myngha kóbenimiz kerek. Al myna sanaqta 5 jylda shamamen 1.5 mln.gha (1 mln. 462 myn) kóbeygen ekenbiz. Ylayym osylay bolghay degenimizben, demografiyanyng zandylyqtaryna ýilespeydi. Kóship ketkender men kóship kelushilerding ara salmaghynyng kóp emestigin jәne songhy jyldaghy shetelden keletin qazaqtar kóshining toqtaghanyn qossaq, Statistika agenttigining esebine kýmәnimiz tipti kýsheye týsedi. Bәlkim Elbasynyng «2015 jyly halyq sany 20 milliongha jetui kerek» degen tapsyrmasyn oryndau ýshin jyldam kóbeytip jatqan shyghar degen oy da bar. «Qazaqstan-2030» strategiyasynda halyq sanyn 25 mln.gha jetkizu kózdelgen bolsa, búl baghdarlamanyng merziminen búryn «oryndalghanyna» da kuә boldyq. Rasyn aitqanda biylik halyqtyng seniminen airylghany sonsha qazir resmy mәlimetterge kýmәnmen qaraytyn, tipti senbeytin boldy. Sebebi, Elbasydan bastap jalghan mәlimet beredi nemese Elbasygha ainalasyndaghylar jalghan mәlimet beredi. Qalay bolghanda da songhy halyq sanaghynyng tónireginde ýsh týrli, yaghny 2009 jylghy halyq sanaghynda qazaqtardyng ýles salmaghyn Premier-ministr 67 payyz dese, Elbasy 65 payyz, sonynda Statistika agenttigi 63 payyz dep shyghardy. Qaptaghan qate sandardy shúbyrtpay әdeyi qysqa ghana payyzdyq kórsetkishpen berip otyrmyn. Sanymyz da kóp emes edi, biylikti aqtap alayyn desek, ainalasy 16 mln. ghana halyqpyz. Eng basty kýdik tughyzatyny, osy әrbir ózgertude qazaqtardyng ghana sanyn azaytumen shektelgendigi. Eger de halyq sanaghy kezinde últtyq belgilerine qaray bólek sanamaytynyn, yaghny qazaqtardy bólek sanamaghanyn eskersek, qazaqtardyng ghana sanyn azaytumen shúghyldanghandary ýlken kýdik tudyrady. Sebebi nege tek qazaqtardyng sanyn azaytty? Qazaqtardy sanauda qate ketti deyin desek, barlyghyn birge sanady. Onda barlyghynyng sanyn shegerui kerek emes pe?

Halyq sanaghy boyynsha әlemdik ortaq tәjiriybe bar. Ol boyynsha halyq sanaghynda qatelikter ketkenning ózinde ol 3 payyzdan aspauy tiyis eken. Al bizde alghashqy mәlimetpen jana mәlimetting arasynda 1 mln. adam kemidi, yaghny 6.2 payyz qateni qúraydy. Oghan songhy resmy mәlimette aitylghan, «halyq sanaghyna kirmey qalghandar 1 payyzdy qúraydy» degen resmy qateni qossaq 7.2 payyz. Odan qaldy halyq sanyn úzaq esepteu jaghynan Ginnesting rekordyn janartqan boluymyz mýmkin. Qoryta aitqanda, jasandy jolmen kóbeytip jatqanday kórinetin qazirgi halyq sanynyng dәldigine kýmәn basym. Aytpaghym, bәlkim sanymyz búdan da az boluy mýmkin degen qorqynysh...

Kelesi mәsele, halyq sanynyng kóbeymeuining sebep saldarlary. Búnyng eng basty faktory әleumettik jaghdaydyng nasharlyghy. Búl ghylymy enbek bolmaghan son, kóterip otyrghan mәselening shynayylyghyn kórsetu ýshin, halyqtyng sanyn kóbeytushi - jastardyng ortasynda jýrgen son, óz betimmen jýrgizgen qarapayym zertteulermen-aq kóp jayttan habar bergim kelip otyr. Bir jaghynan halqymyzdyng sany az bolghan son, kishkentay ghana qoghamdaghy jaghday bәrimizge belgili. Ári qoghamdaghy jaghdaydy kózben kórip kónilge týigen, týrli әdistermen, mysalygha әleumettik jeliler arqyly zerttep saraptaghan derek jaghdaydyng әldeqayda shynayylyghyn ashady dep oilaymyn.

Qay derekke sýiensek te, ortasha eseppen otbasylarda bir-eki ghana baladan aspaytyndyghy anyqtaldy. Demek, eki baladan dep tompaytyp alghannyng ózinde demografiyanyng qarapayym zandylyghyna sәikes, bizde ósim joq degen sóz. Sebebi otbasyda bir bala bolsa azai, eki bala bolsa ósimning toqtauy, ýsh bala bolsa kóbeng ekenin jaqsy bilesizder. Búl ólshem tek otbasylylar arasyndaghy emes, barlyq halyqqa shaqqandaghy ortaq jaghday. Endi osy ortaq sandy, yaghny kóp balaly otbasylardyng sanyn azaytugha ýles qosyp jýrgen kimder? Kópshiligi boydaqtar men otbasynda bala joq nemese bir bala qúraytyn otbasylar. Áriyne, jastar ýilengisi kelmeydi, kóp bala sýigisi kelmeydi dep eshkim aita almaydy. Senim, týsinigimizge, mentaliytetimizge qaray bәrining erterek ýilenip, kóp úrpaq sýigisi keledi. Problemagha ýnilip qarasaq, qol baylau bolyp otyrghan tek әleumettik jaghday ghana. Auylgha barsa júmys joq, qalagha kelse pәter joq. Sosyn «qalay kýn kóremiz?» dep pәterden pәterge tentirep jýrgende bala týgili bas qayghy bolyp ketedi. Barlyghynyng shaghymdanatyny eki-aq mәsele: túrghyn ýy men әleumettik jaghday. Osy eki mәsele jastardy әbden dinkeletip, ishkilikke, óz ózderin qol júmsaugha, týsik jasatugha aparuda. Resmy derek te jastar arasyndaghy suisidting kóbeygenin jәne jas otbasylardyng týsik jasatuynyng kóbeygenin rastap otyr. Týsik jasatu adam óltirumen teng ekenin eskersek, jaghdaydyng qiyndyghy osynday qylmysqa deyin mәjbýrleude. Basqasyn aitpaghanda, osy eng auyr qylmyspen-aq jaghdaydyng qanday dengeyde ekenin biluge bolady. Áytpese, ómirge kelgisi kelgen balany óltiru esh aqylgha simaytynyn bir sәt bolsa da oilansaq jan týrshigedi. Meyli, gharyshtyq jyldamdyqpen qaryshtap damyp jatqan shygharmyz. Biraq onyng halyqqa paydasy bolmasa ne keregi bar onday damudyn. Sodan bolar halyq arasynda mynaday әngimening keng taraghany, Ýkimet: «Osy kýnge deyin jaqsy ómir sýrdik. Shýkir. Bәri jaqsy. Endi ary qaray da jaqsy ómir sýre beretin bolamyz». Halyq: «Biz she?» degen eken. Biz siyaqty múnay óndirip jatqan elderding әleumettik jaghdayy kisi qyzygharlyqtay. Al biz tek múnay ghana emes, әlemning bar baylyghyn óndircek te jaghdayymyz týzelmey, sanymyz kóbeymey otyr.

Qysqasy, ýilenuding azangyna, sýr boydaqtar men otyryp qalghan qyzdardyng kóbengine, ajyrasulardyng kóbengine, otbasylardaghy balalar sanynyng azangyna birden bir sebep bolyp otyrghan әleumettik jaghdaydyng nasharlyghy ekendigine әbden kóz jetti.

Halyqtyng sanyn kóbeytushi jastar bolghandyqtan, kezinde jastardyn, jas otbasylardyng atalghan problemalaryn zanmen rettegen «Jastar sayasaty turaly» zang boyynsha biraz memlekettik organdargha jýgingenim bar edi. Biraq eshqanday nәtiyje bolmady. Parlamentten bastap jergilikti atqarushy organdar búl zannyng oryndalmaytyn zang ekenindigine kózimdi jetkizdi. Halyqaralyq qauymdastyqqa kórsetu ýshin shygharylghan jay zang ekenin ashyq aitqandary da boldy. Búdan shyghatyn qorytyndy, jastar qúqyqtyq, әleumettik jaghynan qorghalmaghan. Sondyqtan da jogharyda atalghan kelensizdikter qoghamymyzda beleng alyp ketti. Memlekettik organdardan kómek súrap barghan jas otbasylardyng «asyray almasandar, balalar ýiine ótkizinder» degen sózine qúlaq ýirendi. Tek qoghamdyq pikir tughyzyp, mәsele kótergenderi ghana eptep mәselelerin sheship jatyr. Sonda әrbir jas otbasylardyng problemalaryn osylay jeke-jeke qoghamdyq aiqay shu tudyryp sheship otyruy kerek pe? Áriyne, osy atalghan mәseleler tónireginde biylikting jauaby dayyn, zang bar, mlrd.tap qarjylar bólinip baghdarlamalar jýzege asyp jatyr, taghysyn taghy. Al men osy ertegilerding nәtiyjesi turaly, kóz kórip bastan ótkerip jatqan shynayy ómir turaly aityp otyrmyn. Halyqtyng sanyn kóbeytedi degen jastardyng jaghdayy osynday bolghan son, halyqtyng sanyn kóbeytuge ýles qosa almaytyn halyqtyng bóligi turaly sóz qozghaudyng ózi artyq.

Eger de biz halyqtyng sanyn kóbeytudi qolgha almasaq, elimiz ýlken әleumettik daghdarysqa úshyraytyny anyq. Yaghny songhy mәlimetter boyynsha halqymyz qartayyp barady eken. BÚÚ-nyng esebi boyynsha da Qazaqstan halqy qartayyp bara jatqan elderding qataryna jatady. Kәri azamattardyng kóbengi búl daghdarystyng basy ghana...

Bizding jaghdayda halyq sanyn kóbeytuding eki joly bar.

Birinshisi, әlemdik tәjiriybedegidey balanyng tuuyna jaghday jasap, yntalandyryp, balanyng tuuyn jyldam kóbeytu. Yaghny jauyr bolsa da aitayyn әleumettik jaghday bolmasa balanyng tuuy óspeydi.

Ekinshisi, sheteldegi qazaqtardy kóshirip әkelu. Biylik rayynan qaytpay kóshti jýrgizbese, onda biz azamat retinde sheteldegi qandastarymyzdy shaqyrtu qúqymyzdy paydalanuymyz kerekpiz. Qúdaygha shýkir sheteldegi 5 mln. qazaqty shaqyrtugha Qazaqstandaghy qazaqtardyng sany jetedi.

Qysqasy, halyq sanynyng úzaq jyldardan beri kóbeymeui, memleketting barlyq saladaghy әlsizdigin kórsetedi. Osy halyq sany arqyly Qazaqstannyng shyn bet beynesin kóruge bolady. Bylaysha aitqanda elding әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jaghdayynyng kórsetkishi. Halyqtyng ósimi toqtap jatqan keybir damyghan elderde qordalanghan әleumettik ekonomikalyq jaghdaydan ekenin ashyq týrde qoghamnyng aldynda moyyndap jәne oghan qarsy kýresip, sebep saldarlaryn joyyp jatyr. Bizde jalghan mәlimettermen óz ózimizdi alday bermey, dertti ashyp aityp, qogham bolyp, biylik bolyp bәrimiz júmyla kýreseyik. «Auruyn jasyrghan óledi». Osy kezge deyin jyrtyghymyzdy jamaghan, ótirigimizdi jauyp kelgen oralmandar kóshi toqtady. Eger de dertting aldyn almasaq, problemalardyng ýlkeni endi bastalady.

Sol ýlken problema degenning bir shetin ghana aitayyn. Kәri qyzdar turaly. Nege olardyng sany ósip keledi? Sebebi jigitter ýilenbeydi. Al jigitter jaghdaydyng joqtyghynan ýilenbey jýrgeni aksioma. Áytpese bizding jigitterding jigittigine eshkimning kýmәni joq shyghar. Qaptaghan kәri qyzdarymyzdyng sheteldikterge túrmysqa shygha bastaghanyn әdilet organdary da moyyndap otyr. Búl sheteldik migranttardyng kóptep keluine, әsirese qytaylyqtardyng qaptauyna jol ashuda. Jarty milliongha juyq qytaydyng elimizde jýrgeni belgili. Solardyng qyz tandamay ýilene beretinin eskersek, 300 myngha juyq kәri qyzdarymyzgha ýilenip, minimum eseppen keminde eki baladan tudyrghanda 600 myng qytay qaptap shygha keledi. Oghan elimizde jýrgen jarty million qytaydy qossanyz, keminde bir million qytay payda boldy degen sóz. Qytaylar osy baghytynan janylmay әreket ete berse, jaqyn jyldary milliondap qytay diasporasy payda bolady. Sebebi balanyng payda boluy kóp jyldardy emes toghyz aidy ghana qajet etedi. Jýrip jatqan osy qauipti prosesti biylikting jasyryp jatqany esh aqylgha simaydy. Qansha jerden mәlimetti jasyryp ústasa da, erteng milliondaghan qytay diasporasy payda bolghanda aituyna tura keledi. Biraq ol kezde bәri kesh...

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