Preziydent múrageri kim?
Qazaqstan Respublikasy Preziydentining yqtimal múragerler reytingisi
«Reyting.kz» Zertteu agenttigi aghymdaghy jyldyng nauryz aiynda sayasy elita ishindegi QR Preziydenti N.Á.Nazarbaevtyng memleket basshysy retinde yqtimal múragerlerining mýmkindikterine qatysty obektivti bagha beru ýshin sarapshylar arasynda saualnama jýrgizdi.
Reytingtik zertteu Qazaqstannyng sayasy elitasynyng 23 ókiline qatysty jýrgizildi. Oghan qosa, sarapshylargha atalmysh oryngha ie bolu mýmkindigi bar túlghalardy atau úsynyldy.
Sonymen qatar, zertteu ayasynda bolashaq múragerge tiyisti sayasatkerlerding 9 negizgi faktorlarynyng manyzdylyghy esepke alyndy.
Mәlimetti jinau barysynda qazirgi QR Preziydentining jeke jospary alynbady. Sebebi Elbasy preziydenttik merzimning ayaqtaluyna deyin óz qyzmetin atqaratynyna senim bildiremiz.
Saualnamagha respublikadaghy sayasy jәne әleumettik-ekonomikalyq ýrdisterdi zerttep jýrgen joghary tәjiriybeli 41 maman qatysty.
Zertteu nәtiyjeleri ortasha baldardy anyqtau arqyly SPSS baghdarlamasymen esepteldi.
Kórsetilgen әrbir sayasatkerlerding mýmkindikterin baghalau ýshin 7 baldyq jýie («1» - eng tómen, «7» -eng joghary) qoldanyldy. Atalmysh túlghalardyng mýmkindikterine әser etetin faktorlardy saraptau ýshin 9 baldyq jýie («1» - eng tómen, «9» -eng joghary) arqyly jýrgizildi.
Qazaqstan Respublikasy Preziydentining yqtimal múragerler reytingisi
«Reyting.kz» Zertteu agenttigi aghymdaghy jyldyng nauryz aiynda sayasy elita ishindegi QR Preziydenti N.Á.Nazarbaevtyng memleket basshysy retinde yqtimal múragerlerining mýmkindikterine qatysty obektivti bagha beru ýshin sarapshylar arasynda saualnama jýrgizdi.
Reytingtik zertteu Qazaqstannyng sayasy elitasynyng 23 ókiline qatysty jýrgizildi. Oghan qosa, sarapshylargha atalmysh oryngha ie bolu mýmkindigi bar túlghalardy atau úsynyldy.
Sonymen qatar, zertteu ayasynda bolashaq múragerge tiyisti sayasatkerlerding 9 negizgi faktorlarynyng manyzdylyghy esepke alyndy.
Mәlimetti jinau barysynda qazirgi QR Preziydentining jeke jospary alynbady. Sebebi Elbasy preziydenttik merzimning ayaqtaluyna deyin óz qyzmetin atqaratynyna senim bildiremiz.
Saualnamagha respublikadaghy sayasy jәne әleumettik-ekonomikalyq ýrdisterdi zerttep jýrgen joghary tәjiriybeli 41 maman qatysty.
Zertteu nәtiyjeleri ortasha baldardy anyqtau arqyly SPSS baghdarlamasymen esepteldi.
Kórsetilgen әrbir sayasatkerlerding mýmkindikterin baghalau ýshin 7 baldyq jýie («1» - eng tómen, «7» -eng joghary) qoldanyldy. Atalmysh túlghalardyng mýmkindikterine әser etetin faktorlardy saraptau ýshin 9 baldyq jýie («1» - eng tómen, «9» -eng joghary) arqyly jýrgizildi.
QR Preziydentining yqtimal múragerlerining jalpy reytingisin esepteu ýshin zertteu nәtiyjelerine arifmetikalyq amaldar (qosu men ortasha arifmetikalyq baldardy shygharu arqyly «salmaqtar») qoldanyldy.
Sonymen birge, atalmysh zertteu nәtiyjeleri 2012 jyldyng mamyr aiynda jýrgizilgen zertteu nәtiyjelerimen salystyryldy. Alghashqy zertteu jabyq negizde jýrgizildi. Endigi kezekte aldynghy jyl men osy jyly jýrgizilgen zertteulerdi salystyra otyryp, jariyalau turaly sheshim qabyldandy.
Faktorlar baghasy
Sarapshylardyng jauaptary arqyly QR Preziydenti N.Á.Nazarbaevtyng yqtimal múragerleri retinde Qazaqstannyng sayasy elitasy ókilderining mýmkindikterine әser etetin faktorlar kelesidey ornalasty:
|
№ |
Faktorlar |
Baldar |
|
|
2013 |
2012 |
||
|
1 |
QR Preziydenti Núrsúltan Nazarbaevtyng senimi |
7,61 |
8,43 |
|
2 |
Ishki biylik elitasyndaghy basqa yqpal etushi toptar men negizgi túlghalar ýshin tiyimdiligi |
6,68 |
6,69 |
|
3 |
Sayasy yqpal etui |
6,29 |
6,23 |
|
4 |
Biylikting joghary eshelonyndaghy jaqyn jaqtastardyng (yqpal etushi toptar) bar boluy |
6,08 |
5,89 |
|
5 |
Áleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui |
5,82 |
5,37 |
|
6 |
Syrtqy kýshterden, әlem derjavalarynyng kóshbasshylarynan qoldau alu mýmkindigi |
5,26 |
5,51 |
|
7 |
Ekonomikalyq yqpal etui |
5,43 |
|
|
8 |
Kәsiby qasiyetter (bilimi, basqarushylyq ótili jәne t.b.) |
4,32 |
5,09 |
|
9 |
Qogham ishindegi tanymaldylyghy men әigililigi |
5,06 |
|
Sonymen, alghashqy ýshtikke QR Preziydenti Núrsúltan Nazarbaevtyng senimi (7,61 ball), ishki biylik elitasyndaghy basqa yqpal etushi toptar men negizgi túlghalar ýshin tiyimdiligi (6,68 ball) jәne onyng sayasy yqpal etui (6,29 ball) endi.
Múnday baghalalar Qazaqstannyng biylik elitasy belgilegen «oyyn tәrtibin» kórsetip otyr. Sebebi, memleketting sayasiy-biylik jýiesindegi negizgi túlgha memleket basshysy bolyp tabylady jәne ol biylik elitasy ishindegi týrli yqpal etushi toptary arasynda tepe-tendikti ústap keledi. Oghan qosa, onyng sheshiminsiz elitanyng eshbir ókili kelesi ekinshi Preziydent lauazymyna ýmittenuge jaghdayy joq. Týrli uaqytta memleket basshysynyng búrynghy jaqtastarynyng (Rahat Áliyev, Ákejan Qajygeldiyn, Múhtar Áblyazov, Altynbek Sәrsenbayúly, Jarmahan Túyaqbay jәne t.b.) amaldary qatang toqtatyldy.
Sonymen qatar, memleket basshysy biylik elitasyndaghy yqpal etushi toptar men jeke túlghalardyng kónil-kýiin eskere otyryp, ynghayly múragerdi anyqtaydy. Áytpese, keri jaghdayda ózara qarym-qatynastar men qarsylyqtar jýiesinde ishki elitanyng basym ókilderining qoldauynsyz respublikanyng ekinshi Preziydentining pozisiyasy túraqsyz bolary anyq.
Preziydenttik oryngha mýmkindigi bar múragerding sayasy yqpal etu dengeyi de ýlken manyzgha iye. Biraq ta alghashqy eki faktorlardy eskermeyinshe, atalmysh túlghanyng (Qazaqstannyng sayasiy-biylik jýiesindegi alar ornyna qaramastan) kelesi memleket basshysy retinde bolu ýmiti joq.
Sonday-aq, eki zertteulerding nәtiyjelerin salystyru arqyly iyerarhiyadaghy faktorlar men kórsetkishterding ózgerisi әldeqayda bayqalady. Ásirese, memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múragerlerge degen senimining tómendigi nazar audartady. Al ýmitkerlerding sayasy yqpal etu kórsetkishi jogharlaghany kórinedi.
Respondentterding osynday baghalarynyng ózgerisin bylay týsindiruge bolady. Songhy jyldary biylik elitasynda jәne eldegi bolghan ýrdister ayasynda respublikadaghy jaghdaydy baqylau men jogharghy biylikting bolashaq sabaqtastyghyn qamtamasyz etu boyynsha basshylyq mýmkindikterining belgili bir dengeyde azayy bayqaldy. Al osynday uaqytta aghymdaghy jaghday men elding bolashaq damuy ýshin jauapkershilikti ala biletin elita ókilderining sayasy salmaghy men potensialy artatyny aiqyn.
Ekinshi ýshtikke kirgen faktorlar alghashqy ýshtikke qaraghanda ekinshi dengeyde bolghanymen, QR Preziydentining múragerler pozisiyasyna ýmitti túlghalar ýshin ýlken ról atqarady.
Qazaqstan sayasy elitasynyng yqpal etushi toptargha bólinui men olardyng eldegi sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq resurstar ýshin ýnemi tartys jaghdayynda preziydenttik taqqa ýmitker-múragerlerding osylardan alshaq boluy atalmysh maqsatqa sәtti jetuine kepildik bola almaydy. Sol sebepti anyqtalghan túlghalar ýshin biylikting jogharghy eshelonynda jaqyn jaqtastardyng nemese potensialdy odaqtastardyng (6,08 ball) boluy manyzdy. Búl faktor 2012 jylghy zertteu nәtiyjelerimen salystyrghanda óskenin kóruge bolady.
Sonymen qatar osy faktorlar tobyna elding әleuetti qúrylymdardaghy yqpal etui (5,82 balla) kirip otyr. Osyghan oray, búl faktor 7-shi orynnan 5-shi oryngha túraqtady. Yaghni, songhy jyldary Qazaqstannyng sayasiy-biylik jýiesinde әleuetti qúrylymdaryndaghy jaghdaylar keybir ózgeristerge әkeldi dep negizdeuge bolady. Deytúrghanmen, osy arada keybir ishki elitalyq toptardyng nemese yqpaldy túlghalardyng tarapynan yqpal etuining jogharlaghany turaly sóz bolyp otyr.
Bolashaq memleket basshysy ýshin tek ishki biylik elitasynda ghana emes, sonymen qatar Qazaqstannyng strategiyalyq manyzdy syrtqy әriptester tarapynan da, onyng ishinde әlemdik iri memleketter tarapynan (5,26 ball) moyyndaluy tiyis. Resey, Qytay, AQSh pen Europalyq Odaqtyng Qazaqstangha yqpal etuin týsine otyryp, bolashaq memleket basshysyn anyqtauda olardyng kózqarastaryn eskermeu dúrys emes (eger de Qazaqstan ózining barlyq qarym-qatynastaryn saqtap jәne odan әrmen arttyru jaghdayynda ghana bolsa).
Jeke nemese qol astyndaghy ekonomikalyq resurstardyng boluy (5,26 ball) memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múragerleri ýshin qosymsha basymdyq beredi. Desek te, búl faktor alghashqy bestikke qaraghanda әldeqayda tómen ekeni bayqalyp túr. Oghan qosa, manyzdylyq boyynsha (2012 jylghy kórsetkishpen salystyrghanda) tómendedi.
4,32 balgha ie bolghan songhy eki faktor (kәsiby qasiyetter jәne tanymaldylyq men әigililik) qogham tarapynan moyyndaluy dep týsinuge bolady. Sóitip, alghashqy ýsh faktorlardan basqa qalghan faktorlar respublika saylaushylary ýshin tek formalidy sipattamagha ie bolmaq.
Mýmkindikter baghasy
Tómende kórsetilgen Qazaqstannyng sayasy elita ókilderine jasalghan sarapshylyq mýmkindikter baghalarynyng nәtiyjeleri boyynsha reyting jasaldy:
|
№ |
Ýmitker |
QR Preziydenti Núrsúltan Nazarbaevtyng senimi |
Sayasy yqpal etui |
Ekonomikalyq yqpal etui |
Áleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui |
Qogham ishindegi tanymaldylyghy men әigililigi |
Kәsiby qasiyetter (bilimi, basqarushylyq ótili jәne t.b.) |
Biylikting jogharghy eshelonyndaghy jaqtastardyng (yqpal etushi toptardyn) bar boluy |
Ishki biylik elitasyndaghy basqa yqpal etushi toptar men negizgi túlghalar ýshin tiyimdiligi |
Syrtqy kýshterden, әlem derjavalarynyng kóshbasshylarynan qoldau alu mýmkinshiligi |
|
1 |
Núrtay Ábikaev |
6,22 |
5,8 |
4,18 |
6,15 |
4,85 |
5,49 |
5,7 |
4,63 |
4,37 |
|
2 |
Kәrim Mәsimov |
5,8 |
5,65 |
5,56 |
4,54 |
5,34 |
5,17 |
4,79 |
3,72 |
4,85 |
|
3 |
Timur Qúlybaev |
5,05 |
4,78 |
5,98 |
3,82 |
5 |
4,39 |
5,59 |
4 |
4,9 |
|
4 |
Imanghaly Tasmaghambetov |
4,68 |
5,27 |
4,75 |
3,46 |
6,22 |
5,63 |
4,75 |
3,87 |
4,21 |
|
5 |
Marat Tәjiyn |
5,61 |
5,29 |
2,87 |
4,41 |
4,29 |
5,56 |
4,1 |
3,93 |
4,2 |
|
6 |
Bolat Ótemúratov |
5,59 |
4,56 |
5,54 |
3,58 |
3,85 |
4,37 |
4,45 |
3,91 |
3,51 |
|
7 |
Darigha Nazarbaeva |
5,76 |
4,54 |
4,27 |
2,77 |
5,85 |
4,22 |
4,76 |
3,16 |
4,02 |
|
8 |
Serik Ahmetov |
4,76 |
4,34 |
4,38 |
3,49 |
4,59 |
5,15 |
4,08 |
4,21 |
3,21 |
|
9 |
Qasym-Jomart Toqaev |
5,12 |
3,61 |
2,45 |
2,37 |
5,1 |
5,58 |
3,95 |
4,82 |
4,79 |
|
10 |
Ahmetjan Esimov |
5,63 |
4,29 |
4 |
3,08 |
3,54 |
3,73 |
4,78 |
3,55 |
2,77 |
|
11 |
Ádilbek Jaqsybekov |
4,73 |
3,88 |
3,51 |
4,09 |
3,76 |
4,2 |
4,05 |
3,79 |
3,24 |
|
12 |
Ómirzaq Shókeev |
4,58 |
4,18 |
4,54 |
3 |
4,05 |
4,02 |
4,6 |
3,2 |
2,62 |
|
13 |
Núrlan Nyghmatuliyn |
4,88 |
4,38 |
3,38 |
2,77 |
4,4 |
4,4 |
4,15 |
3,32 |
3,05 |
|
14 |
Qayrat Mәmiy |
4,53 |
4,05 |
2,95 |
3,8 |
3,51 |
4,41 |
4,3 |
3,62 |
2,76 |
|
15 |
Qayrat Qojamjarov |
4,13 |
3,48 |
3,03 |
4,4 |
3,48 |
4 |
3,72 |
2,95 |
3,37 |
|
16 |
Áset IYsekeshev |
4,33 |
3,22 |
4,21 |
2 |
4,25 |
3,61 |
4,01 |
3,56 |
3,05 |
|
17 |
Aslan Musiyn |
3,38 |
4,03 |
3,7 |
3,49 |
4,13 |
4,54 |
3,95 |
2,72 |
2,78 |
|
18 |
Qayrat Satybaldyúly |
4,95 |
3,3 |
3,36 |
3,85 |
2,78 |
3,24 |
4,13 |
2,77 |
2,49 |
|
19 |
Baqytjan Saghyntaev |
4,4 |
3,55 |
3,26 |
2,31 |
3,33 |
4,18 |
3,67 |
3,32 |
2,47 |
|
20 |
Qayrat Kelimbetov |
4,38 |
3,41 |
4,18 |
2,15 |
2,59 |
4,59 |
3,09 |
3,11 |
3,04 |
|
21 |
Samat Ábish |
5,05 |
2,78 |
2,56 |
4,17 |
1,79 |
3,36 |
4,03 |
3,19 |
2,37 |
|
22 |
Baqyt Súltanov |
3,97 |
2,84 |
3,14 |
1,94 |
2,57 |
3,92 |
2,97 |
2,8 |
2,26 |
|
23 |
Bauyrjan Baybek |
4 |
2,56 |
1,76 |
1,54 |
3,08 |
2,82 |
2,95 |
2,38 |
1,79 |
Aytyp keterlik jәit, Qazaqstannyng sayasy elita ókilderin zertteu barysynda ózgerister engizildi. Mәselen, qazirgi tizimge Parlament Mәjilisining deputaty Serik Ýmbetov (2012 jyly ol QR Preziydent isteri basqarushysy boldy) kirmedi. Sonymen birge qazirgi Qauipsizdik Kenesining hatshysy Qayrat Qojamjarov pen Premier-ministrding birinshi orynbasary - Ónirlik damu ministri Baqytjan Saghyntaev endi.
Yqtimal múragerlerding jalpy reytingisi
|
Oryn |
Dinamika |
Yqtimal ýmitkerding aty-jóni |
Ortasha salmaq (sәuir,2013) |
Ortasha salmaq (mamyr, 2012) |
|
1 |
|
Núrtay Ábiqaev |
30,54 |
30,68 |
|
2 |
|
Kәrim Mәsimov |
28,91 |
29,38 |
|
3 |
|
Timur Qúlybaev |
27,69 |
28,8 |
|
4 |
|
Imanghaly Tasmaghambetov |
26,88 |
28,49 |
|
5 |
+5 |
Marat Tәjiyn |
25,84 |
25,17 |
|
6 |
+7 |
Bolat Ótemúratov |
25,37 |
23,12 |
|
7 |
‑2 |
Darigha Nazarbaeva |
25,07 |
27,2 |
|
8 |
+6 |
Serik Ahmetov |
24,31 |
23,04 |
|
9 |
‑3 |
Qasym-Jomart Toqaev |
23,99 |
26,5 |
|
10 |
‑1 |
Ahmetjan Esimov |
23,06 |
25,27 |
|
11 |
+1 |
Ádilbek Jaqsybekov |
22,67 |
23,28 |
|
12 |
‑4 |
Ómirzaq Shókeev |
22,27 |
25,33 |
|
13 |
‑2 |
Núrlan Nyghmatuliyn |
22,23 |
23,35 |
|
14 |
+1 |
Qayrat Mәmiy |
21,85 |
21,93 |
|
15 |
- |
Qayrat Qojamjarov |
20,80 |
- |
|
16 |
+1 |
Áset IYsekeshev |
20,57 |
18,13 |
|
17 |
‑10 |
Aslan Musiyn |
20,57 |
26,49 |
|
18 |
|
Qayrat Satybaldyúly |
20,14 |
18,13 |
|
19 |
- |
Baqytjan Saghyntaev |
19,59 |
- |
|
20 |
‑4 |
Qayrat Kelimbetov |
19,54 |
21,45 |
|
21 |
|
Samat Ábish |
19,35 |
13,4 |
|
22 |
‑2 |
Bahyt Súltanov |
16,95 |
15,56 |
|
23 |
‑1 |
Bauyrjan Baybek |
14,83 |
12,32 |
Kóshbasshylar toby
Reytingtik kórsetkishter arqasynda kóshbasshylar tobyn tómendegi túlghalar bastady:
- Núrtay Ábiqaev, QR ÚQK Tóraghasy.
- Kәrim Mәsimov, QR Preziydent Ákimshiligining jetekshisi.
- Timur Qúlybaev, «KAZENERGY» múnay-gaz jәne energetikalyq keshen úiymynyng qazaqstandyq qauymdastyghynyng tóraghasy.
- Imanghaly Tasmaghambetov, Astana qalasynyng әkimi.
- Marat Tәjiyn, QR Memlekettik hatshysy.
- Bolat Ótemúratov, QR Preziydentining shtattan tys kenesshisi.
- Darigha Nazarbaeva, QR Parlamenti Mәjisilining Áleumettik-mәdeny damu komiytetining tórayymy.
- Serik Ahmetov, QR Premier-ministri.
Zertteu nysanyna týsken basqa sayasatkerlerge qaraghanda Núrtay Ábiqaev QR Preziydentining senimi (6,22 ball) men sayasy yqpal etui (5,8 ball) boyynsha kóshbasshy bolyp tabylady. Búghan Núrsúltan Nazarbaevqa adaldyghy, memlekettik apparattaghy týrli manyzdy oryndardaghy ýlken júmys tәjiriybesi, yqpal etushi toptardan alshaqtyghy men solardyng arasyndaghy deldal retindegi ýlken qabileti әser etti. Byltyrghy bolghan shekara qyzmetindegi oqighalargha qaramastan, Ábiqaevtyng jalpy pozisiyasy esh ózgermedi. Oghan qosa, әleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui (6,15 ball) men ishki biylik elitasyndaghy basqa yqpal etushi toptar men negizgi túlghalar ýshin tiyimdiligi (4,63 ball) boyynsha kórsetkishteri joghary. Ábiqaevtyng ortashadan joghary balgha ie boluy kóbine onyng jasymen baylanystyrylady. Sondyqtan da osynyng bәri postnazarbaev uaqytysynda tranzittik túlgha retinde shyghuyna әser etedi.
Byltyrdan bastap Kәrim Mәsimovtyng jalpy reytingisi 2-shi orynda qaldy. 2012 jyldyng qyrkýieginen bastap Preziydent Ákimshiligining jetekshisi boluy arqyly ózining kórsetkishin birshama jaqsartty. Mәselen, memleket basshysynyng senimi (5,8 ball), sayasy yqpal etui (5,65 ball), әleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui (4,54 ball) boyynsha Núrtay Ábiqaevtan keyingi oryngha ie boldy. Songhy faktorgha byltyrghy jylghy ótken qúqyq qorghau organdarynyng ókilderin attestattau komissiyasynyng basshylyghy әser etti. Sonday-aq, ekonomikalyq yqpal etu (5,56 ball) boyynsha Timur Qúlybaevtan keyingi ekinshi oryngha túraqtady.
Timur Qúlybaevqa keletin bolsaq, Janaózendegi oqighadan keyin «Samúryq-Qazyna» әl-auqat qorynyng tóraghylyghynan alyp tastasa da, memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múragerler ishinde 3-shi oryngha ornalasty. Memleket basshysy tarapynan senimi (5,05 ball) men sayasy yqpal etu (4,78 ball) dengeyi joghary bolyp saqtaldy. Sonymen qatar basqa túlghalarmen salystyrghanda onyng ekonomikalyq yqpal etui (5,98 ball) óte joghary, al biylikting joghary eshelonyndaghy jaqyn jaqtastardyng (yqpal etushi toptar) bar boluy (5,59 ball) kórsetkishimen ekinshi oryngha jayghasty. Oghan qosa, Qúlybaev Qazaqstannyng syrtqy sayasy әriptesterinen qoldau alu mýmkindigi әldeqayda basym (4,9 ball).
Reytingting jalpy 4-shi ornyna Astana qalasynyng әkimi Imanghaly Tasmaghambetov ie boldy. Qoghamdaghy tanymaldylyghy men әigililigi (6,22 ball) men kәsiby qasiyetter (5,63 ball) kórsetkishteri boyynsha kóshbasshy bolyp tanyldy. Al sayasy (5,27 ball) jәne ekonomikalyq (4,75 ball) yqpal etui boyynsha tórtinshi oryndy aldy. Songhy jaghdaygha qala merining kýieu balasy Kenes Raqyshevtyng ekonomikalyq aktivteri yqpal etse kerek. Tek memleket basshysynyng senimi men qoldauy (4,68 ball) boyynsha kórsetkishi tómendigi anyqtaldy.
Byltyrghy nәtiyjelermen salystyrghanda Marat Tәjinning reytingtik pozisiyasy 10-shy orynnan 5-shi oryngha kóterildi. Búghan onyng QR Memlekettik hatshy (kópshilik aldyndaghy dengey) etip taghayyndaluy qatty әser etti. Tәjinning enshisinde - memleket basshysynyng senimi (5,61 ball), sayasy yqpal etui (5,29 ball), kәsiby qasiyetter (5,56 ball). Al әleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui (4,41 ball) boyynsha 3-shi oryndy aldy. Osy jaghdaygha kóp jyldary QR Qauipsizdik kenesining hatshysy qyzmetin atqaruy septigi tiydi.
Bolat Ótemúratovtyng memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múragerler qataryna enui tang qaldyrdy. Byltyrghy nәtiyjemen salystyrghanda 13-shi orynnan birden 6-shy oryngha kóterildi. Memleket basshysynyng tikeley jeke tapsyrmalaryn oryndau arqyly QR Preziydentimen tyghyz qarym-qatynasta ekeni barshagha mәlim. Osynyng arqasynda senim dengeyi (5,59 ball) joghary kórsetkishti kórsetip otyr. Sayasiy-biylik jýiesindegi syndarly uaqytta Elbasygha Ótemúratov qajet bolady degen boljam jasaugha bolady. Oghan qosa, júrt aldynda túlgha etip kórsetetin transúlttyq biznes salasyndaghy Ótemúratovtyng belsendi qyzmeti onyng búrynghy «súr kardinal» keskinin joqqa shygharyp otyr. Sóitip, ol týrli yqpal etushi toptardyng ókilderinen joghary túrghany bayqaldy.
Reytingting 7-shi ornyna Darigha Nazarbaeva tómendedi (byltyr 5-shi orynda edi). Múnday tómendeu biylik qúrylymyndaghy joghary lauazymyna kýtilgen taghayyndaluynyng joqtyghymen týsindiriledi. Elbasynyng ýlken qyzynyng qazirgi jaghdayy tiyisti sayasy yqpal bermeytini anyqtaldy. Sayasy yqpal etude 7-shi oryngha túraqtady. Al QR Preziydentining senim dengeyi boyynsha Núrtay Ábiqaevtan keyin 5,76 balmen ekinshi oryndy iyelendi. Ishki al biylik elitasyndaghy basqa yqpal etushi toptar men negizgi túlghalar ýshin tiyimdilik boyynsha eng tómengi kórsetkishke (3,16 ball) ie boldy.
Reytingting kóshbasshylar tobyn Serik Ahmetov ayaqtap otyr. Onyng QR Premier-ministri bolyp taghayyndaluy arqasynda 14-shi orynnan 8-shi oryngha kóterildi. Sonymen qatar, biylik elitasy ýshin tiyimdilik dengeyi boyynsha (4,21 ball) 3-shi oryngha ie bolyp otyp.
Sonday-aq, qarastyrylyp otyrghan toptaghy manyzdy pozisiyalar boyynsha Ahmetov ortashadan joghary dengeyge (5-6 ball) shygha almady. Búl onyng alyp otyrghan lauazymyndaghy naqty bir jetistikting joqtyghyn kórsetip otyr. Ózining aldynda bolghan әriptesterine qaraghanda, Serik Ahmetov Ýkimet júmysynyng sәtsizdigi men qatelikterin óz moynyna almay otyr. Sonyng nәtiyjesinde jaghymsyz tolqyndar qol astyndaghy qyzmetkerlerine nemese tikeley memleket basshysyna baghyttalady. Múnday amal arqyly yqtimal múrager retindegi sayasy kapitalynyng jýieli artuyna әkelip soghady.
«Qosalqylar» toby
Memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múragerler sanatynyng kelesi tobyna:
- Qasym-Jomart Toqaev, BÚÚ Bas hatshysynyng orynbasary
- Ahmetjan Esimov, Almaty qalasynyng әkimi.
- Ádilbek Jaqsybekov, QR Qorghanys ministri.
- Ómirzaq Shókeev, «Samúryq-Qazyna» әl-auqat qorynyng basqarma tóraghasy.
- Núrlan Nyghmatuliyn, QR Parlamenti Mәjilisining tóraghasy.
- Qayrat Mәmi, QR Parlamenti Senatynyng tóraghasy.
- Qayrat Qojamjarov, QR Qauipsizdik kenesining hatshysy.
- Áset IYsekeshev, QR Viyse-premieri - industriya jәne jana tehnologiyalar ministri kirdi.
Ishki biylik elitasyndaghy basqa yqpal etushi toptar men negizgi túlghalar ýshin tiyimdilik kórsetkishi boyynsha Qasym-Jomart Toqaev basqa túlghalargha qaraghanda әldeqayda alda túr. Oghan qosa, QR Preziydentining senimi boyynsha Imanghaly Tasmaghambetov pen Serik Ahmetov syndy túlghalardan joghary dengeydi (5,19 ball) kórsetti. Al syrtqy oiynshylardan qoldau alu mýmkindigi boyynsha Toqaev 3-shi oryndy alyp otyr (4,79 ball). Ol tek sayasy yqpal etu kórsetkishi boyynsha tómengi bagha (3,61 ball) aldy. Múny sayasiy-biylik jýiesindegi Toqaevtyng júmsaq júmys jasau stiyli, ózining ekonomikalyq resurstardyng joqtyghy, onyng qyzmeti syrtqy sayasatta jәne qazirgi tandaghy shetelde boluymen baylanystyrylady.
Júmys tәjiriybesining molshylyghy men QR Preziydentimen tuys boluyna qaramastan, Ahmetjan Esimov tek memleket basshysynyng senim resursyna (5,63 ball) iye. Basqa kórsetkishter boyynsha ortashadan tómen baghalandy. Bәlkim, osynday tómen baghalargha ie boluy Esimovtyng Almaty qalasynyng әkimi retindegi ózine jýktelgen mindetterin tolyq atqarmay otyrghanyna baylanysty shyghar.
Ádilbek Jaqsybekovtyng 12-shi orynnan 11-shi oryngha ornalasuy Ómirzaq Shókeev pen Núrlan Nyghmatulinning pozisiyalarynyng tómendeuimen baylanysty. Al әleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui boyynsha Kәrim Mәsimov, Marat Tәjin men Qayrat Qojamjarovtan keyin oryngha ornalasty (4,09 ball). Osydan ortalyqtyng sayasy yqpal etude әleuetti qúrylymdarynyng ekinshi kezekte (Preziydent Ákimshiligi, Qauipsizdik kenesi jәne t.b. keyin) túrghany aiqyndaldy.
Ómirzaq Shókeevting reytingtik pozisiyasy 8-den 12-shi oryngha tómendedi. Osyghan holdingke kiretin kompaniyalardy («Qazposhta», «Qazaqtelekom», «Eyr Astana», QTJ jәne t.b.) basqaruy boyynsha syngha úshyrauy sebep boluy mýmkin. Ózining lauazymdyq qyzmetine say ekonomikalyq yqpal etui 4,54 balgha teng boldy. Degenmen de, atalmysh faktor memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múragerleri sanatyndaghy rólining artuyna septigi tiymeytini anyq.
Núrlan Nyghmatulin 2 pozisiyagha tómendep, 13-shi oryngha ornalasty. Búghan «Núr Otan» Halyqtyq Demokratiyalyq partiyasy Tóraghasynyng birinshi orynbasary qyzmetinen bosatyluy әser etti. Al Elbasynyng senim dengeyi men sayasy yqpal etui boyynsha Nyghmatulin (4,88; 4,38 ball) Qaraghandy oblysynyng taghy bir tumasy Serik Ahmetovten joghary túrghany anyqtaldy.
QR Konstitusiyasyna sәikes biylikting sabaqtastyghyn qamtamasyz etetin joghary lauazymdyq oryndy alyp otyrghan Qayrat Mәmy atalmysh toptyng songhy oryndaryna ie boldy. Onyng joghary resmy mәrtebesining nominaldy róli men mýmkindikter baghasy 5 ball dengeyinen tómen ekeni anyqtaldy.
Qayrat Qojamjarovtyng reytingting tizimine iligui onyng QR Qauipsizdik kenesining hatshysy bolyp taghayyndaluymen baylanysty. Memleket basshysynyng senimi boyynsha 4,13 ball jinasa, al әleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui 4,4 ball jinady. Endigi QR ÚQK Shekara qyzmetindegi attestattau barysynda yqpaly artady dep kýtilude. Biraq biylik elitasynda qoldau alu boyynsha 2,95 balgha ie boldy. Osyghan Qarjy polisiyasyn basqaryp jatqan kezindegi joghary lauazymdy túlghalargha qatysty qatang әreketi sebep boluy yqtimal.
«Qosalqylar» tobynyng songhy ornyna Áset IYsekeshev túraqtady. Memleket basshysynyng senimi men sayasy yqpal etui boyynsha (4,33; 3,22 ball) tómengi baghalargha ie bolsa da, belgili bir dengeyde ony memleket basshysynyng múrageri retinde qarastyrugha tolyq negiz bar. Serik Ahmetov sekildi ol ózi bastaghan tanymal emes sharalardan (kommunaldyq tarifterdi kóteruin investisiyalargha aiyrbastau, «Kók Jaylau» tau-shanghy keshenining qúrylysy jәne t.b.) aulaqtanyp, qoghamnyng syny tolqynyn basqa sheneunikterge baghyttay bildi. IYsekeshev Ýdemeli industrialdy-innovasiyalyq baghdarlamasyndaghy sәtsizdikterine nazar audartpay, jana tehnologiyalar men turizmdi damytu ayasynda jaghymdy janalyqtardy qogham nazaryna úsynyp keledi. Osydan onyng jasyryn sayasy ambisiyalarynyng baryn bayqaugha bolady.
Basqa túlghalardyng mýmkindikteri
Qazaqstan Respublikasy Preziydentining yqtimal múragerleri sanatyna kiretin mýmkindikteri tómen túlghalar tómendegidey ornalasty:
- Aslan Musiyn, Respublikalyq budjetting atqaryluyn baqylau jónindegi Esep komiytetining tóraghasy.
- Qayrat Satybaldyúly, «Núr Otan» Halyqtyq Demokratiyalyq partiyasynyng hatshysy.
- Baqytjan Saghyntaev, Premier-ministrding birinshi orynbasary - Ónirlik damu ministri.
- Qayrat Kelimbetov, QR viyse-premieri.
- Samat Ábish, QR Últtyq qauipsizdik komiytetining tóragha orynbasary
- Bahyt Súltanov, QR Preziydent Ákimshiligi jetekshisining orynbasary.
- Bauyrjan Baybek, «Núr Otan» HDP Tóraghasynyng birinshi orynbasary.
Osy topqa Musin jәne Saghyntaevtan basqalary ózderining jas erekshelikteri men memlekettik apparattaghy júmys tәjiriybesining azdyghymen kóringen jas sayasatkerler kirip otyr. Osyghan oray, sayasy yqpal etui men ishki elitalyq oiynshylary ýshin tiyimdiligi boyynsha tómengi kórsetkishterge ie boldy.
Osy topta QR Preziydentining senimi boyynsha «eski gvardiya» ókilderimen Samat Ábish (5,05 ball) pen Qayrat Satybaldyúly (4,95 ball) tenese alady. Osyghan kóbine memleket basshysynyng tuystyq qarym-qatynasy yqpal etip otyr. Al sayasy yqpal boyynsha Ábish 2,78 ball, Satybaldyúly 3,3 ball jinady. Tipti, qarastyrylyp otyrghan toptaghy Qayrat Kelimbetovten (3,41 ball) de tómen ekeni kórsetip túr. QR Preziydentining yqtimal múragerlerining jalpy reytingisinde olardyng pozisiyalary esh ózgermedi (tek әleuetti saladaghy yqpal etui boyynsha 4,17 ball jinaghan qazirgi QR ÚQK Tóraghasynyng orynbasary bolyp tabylatyn Samat Ábishten basqasy).
Atalmysh topta Aslan Musin kósh bastap túr. Biraq ta ol byltyrghy nәtiyjelermen salystyrghanda 10 pozisiyasyn joghaltyp, qazirgi 17-shi oryngha túraqtady. Múny kezinde QR Preziydent Ákimshligining jetekshisi lauazymynan bosatyluy men memleket basshysy senimining tómendeuimen týsindiruge bolady. Qazirgi memleket basshysynyng senimi boyynsha 3,38 balmen baghalandy. Sonymen qatar ishki biylik elitasyndaghy oiynshylary ýshin tiyimdiligi boyynsha Bauyrjan Baybekten keyin ekinshi oryndy alyp otyr (2,72 ball). Osy topta Musin tek sayasy yqpal etui boyynsha joghary baghalandy (4,03 ball).
Qayrat Kelimbetov 16-shy orynnan 20-shy oryngha tómendedi. Ýkimettegi alyp otyrghan orny men mansaptyq ósuine qaramastan, ózine tapsyrylghan midetterdi oryndaudaghy olqylyqtardyng bary bayqaldy. Mәselen, Kelimbetov әielderding zeynetkerlik jasyn úzartu men birynghay zeynetaqy qoryn qúru bastamasymen kórindi. Osynday sharalardy qolgha aluymen kózge týsken túlgha biylik elitasynda ózining qajetti ekeni dep aitu qiyn.
Ýkimetting taghy bir mýshesi Baqytjan Saghyntaev QR Preziydentining senimi men sayasy yqpal etui boyynsha Áset IYsekeshev pen Qayrat Kelimbetovten әldeqayda joghary túr (sәikesinshe 4,4; 3,55 ball). Atalmysh túlghanyng osy topta payda boluy onyng 2012 jylghy qyrkýiek aiynan bastap elding sayasiy-biylik jýiesindegi pozisiyalaryna taghayyndaluymen baylanystyrugha bolady. Sondyqtan memleket basshysynyng yqtimal múrageri retinde onyng potensialy әli de ashylghan joq.
Joghary lauazymda túrghan Bahyt Súltanovtyng mýmkindikteri 9 kórsetkish boyynsha ortasha baldan (4 ball) tómen baghalandy. Sonday-aq, onyng pozisiyasy 20-shy orynnan 22-shi oryngha ornalasty.
Reytingting songhy tizimin Bauyrjan Baybek ayaqtap otyr. Onyng baghalary - memleket basshysynyng senimi 4 ball, sayasy yqpal etui 2,56 ball, biylik elitasynyng oiynshylary ýshin tiyimdiligi 2,38 ball.
Jalpy qorytyndylar
Atalmysh zertteu elding biylik elitasyndaghy bәsekelestik pen bólinushilik ýrdisine say QR Preziydentining yqtimal múragerlerining ýsh tobyn anyqtady. Memleket basshysynyng múragerligine tuystyq qatynastaghy túlghalar men búrynghy komsomoldyq nomenklaturasynyng ókilderi jәne 1990-2000-jj. aralyghynda qalyptasqan sayasatkerlerding arasynda tartys jýrip jatqany bayqaldy.
2012 jyldyng mamyrynda jýrgizilgen zertteumen salystyrghanda yqtimal múragerler sany men jeke erekshelikteri ózgerdi. Olardyng sany 7-den 8-ge deyin jetti. Reytingtik pozisiyalarynyng tómendeui saldarynan búl toptan Qasym-Jomart Toqaev pen Aslan Musin shyghyp qaldy. Óz kezeginde búl topqa Marat Tәjiyn, Bolat Ómemúratov pen Serik Ahmetov endi.
Osylardyng barlyghy eldegi biylikting bolashaq sabaqtastyghy mәselesi boyynsha Qazaqstannyng sayasy elitasynda jәne qogham ishinde joghary ózektilikti kórsetip otyr. Eger de biylik elitasynyng ókilderi ýshin ózderining status-kvosyn saqtau manyzdy bolsa, al qazaqstandyqtardyng basym kópshiligine eldegi sayasy túraqtylyqty saqtaugha baghyttalghan resmy sayasy baghyttyng ózgermeui manyzdy bolyp tabylady.
Zertteu barysynda qarastyrylghan sayasatkerlerding jalpy reytingisinde kóshbasshylyqty Núrtay Ábiqaev bastap otyr. Sebebi ol tek búrynnan beri kele jatqan seriktesi ghana emes, ishki biylik elitasyndaghy (onyng ishinde últtyq qauipsizdik) jaghdaydy baghalay alatyn, әri yqtimal qauipterdi aldyn alatyn tәjiriybeli basshy retinde memleket basshysyna qajetti túlgha bolyp tabylady. Oghan qosa, «eski gvardiyanyn» ókili bola otyryp, Núrsúltan Nazarbaevtyng komandasyndaghy orny ynghayly jәne túraqty bolyp túr. Sondyqtan da oghan memleket basshysyna yqpal etu ýshin, múrager pozisiyasyna shyghuy ýshin biylik elitasyndaghy ókilder arasyndaghy tartysqa týsu asa qajet emes.
Jogharyda kórsetilgenderdi eskere otyryp, QR Preziydentining jaqyn tuysqandarynyng bolashaq múrager retinde úsynyluy tiyimsiz. Olardyng barlyghynda jalpygha ortaq ishki biylik elitasynda birshama tepe-tendikti ústap túratynday memlekettik qyzmettegi mol tәjiriybe azdyghy men sayasy yqpal dengeyining tómendigi bayqalady.
Sol sebepti qogham men biylik elitasy ýshin daghdarysqa qarsy túra alatyn menedjerler men jauapkeshilikti ózderine alatyn túlghalar qajettigi aiqyn. Osy orayda Kәrim Mәsimov pen Marat Tәjinning qyzmetterin ataugha túrarlyq. Olar Núrtay Ábiqaev siyaqty ymyragha jetu qabiletterin kórsetti. Olar taghy sayasy ambisiyalarynyng joqtyghymen erekshelenedi.
Osy jәne basqarushylyq tәjiriybe men basqa yqpal etushi toptardan alshaq boluy arqasynda osy ýsh túlgha tek memleket basshysyna ghana emes, biylik elitasyndaghy yqpal etushi toptar ýshin de belgili bir ótpeli kezende kepilger bola alady. Múnda Qazaqstanda újymdyq sipatyndaghy (Ábiqaev-Mәsimov-Tәjin truimviraty) regent instituty qúryluy jayly aitylyp otyr.
Osynday jaghdayda bolashaq memleket basshysy mәrtebesi ýshin «barlyghy barlyghyna qarsy» prinsiypi boyynsha yqpal etushi toptar arasynda qaqtyghys (belgili bir túlghalardyng bedelin týsiru maqsatynda aqparattyq soghys pen әkimshilik shiyelenisten bastap) órshui mýmkin. Osynday qauipterding payda boluy zertteuge ilikken sayasatkerlerding osal jerlerining barymen, kýmәndi bedeli bar toptar men túlghalarmen jaqyndyghymen baynalystyrylady.
Mysaly, Darigha Nazarbaevanyng osal jeri - ol әli de bolsa búrynghy kýieui Rahat Áliyevpen baylanysty sayasy mansabynyng kereghar zamanynan ótkermedi. Oghan qosa, elding sayasy sahnasynda kezindegi «Asar» Respublikalyq partiyasynyng jetekshisi sekildi amal-әdisterdi qoldanyp keledi. Osynday jol arqyly ol biylik elitasyndaghy ózining potensialdy opponentterine QR Preziydenti men jalpy sayasy elita tarapynan narazylyqty tudyruyna alghyshart jasap otyr.
Osyghan oray, yqtimal múrager pozisiyasyna ýmitti túlghalardyng qanday da bir qozghalysy (tipti memleket basshysy maqúldaghan jaghdayda) ishki biylik elitasyndaghy opponentter tarapynan qatang qarsy әreketter qoldanylady. Sóitip, songhylar ýshin QR Preziydenti aldynda atalmysh ýmitkerlerding bedelin týsiru arqyly (sonyng saldarynan yqtimal múrager retinde qarastyru mәselesin týsiru) tiyimdi.
Sayasy jәne medialyq qoldau arqyly ie bolghan Timur Qúlybaevtyng jaghdayynyng sony Janaózendegi oqighalardyng oryn aluymen kórnekti mysal bola alady. Biraq ta, qazirgi tanda Qúlybaev revansh alugha ýmittenip otyr. «Ruhaniyat» partiyasynyng basshylyghyna onyng jaqyn adamdarynyng kelui dәlelderding biri bola alady.
Sonymen qatar, Imanghaly Tasmaghambetovtyng sayasy mansabyna respublikanyng aqparattyq kenistiginde payda bolghan Astana qalasynyng әkimin múrager retinde qoldaudy bildirgen ataqty 150 ziyaly qauym ókilderi men qogham qayratkerlerining haty belgili bir dәrejede qauip tóndirui yqtimal. Ekinshi jaghynan, songhy taghayyndaular arqyly potensialdy jaqtastardyng shenberin úlghaytudy kózdeytinin bayqaugha bolady.
Jalpy, eldegi biylikting sabaqtastyghyn qamtamasyz etu túrghysynan atalmysh zertteu sayasy elita ishindegi QR Preziydenti N.Á.Nazarbaevtyng memleket basshysy retinde yqtimal múragerlerining mýmkindikterine qatysty reytingtik bagha beru arqyly jalpy kórinis berdi. Al yqpal etushi toptardyng keminde az merzimdik uaqytqa memleket basshynyng ornyna bolashaq múragerdi jariyalauy sәtsiz joba retinde qarastyrylady.
Sebebi eldegi bedeli jәne myqty pozisiyalary arqasynda qazirgi QR Preziydenti ózining rúqsatynsyz biylik sabaqtastyghy mәselesin sheshude qanday da bir qadamdargha jol bermeydi. Sonymen birge qazirgi tanda ishki biylik elitasynda nemese oppozisiyada onymen teng túratynday túlgha joq.
Sondyqtan da jogharghy biylikting sabaqtastyghy men N.Á.Nazarbaevtyng yqtimal múragerdi tandau mәselesi memleket basshysynyng qanday jol tandaytynyna nemese belgili bir jaghdayda onyng qatysuynsyz erik bildiriluine baylanysty.
Osy taqyrypty odan әrmen jalghastyru ýshin «Reyting.kz» Zertteu agenttigi aldaghy uaqytta Qazaqstannyng jogharghy biyligining yqtimal tranzit ssenariylerining reytingisin úsynady.
Abai.kz
