Byltyr 21 qyrkýiekte «Áskerge ishinara júmyldyru» ýndeuinde qaharyna әbden mingen Vladimir Vladimiyrúly aspannan jay týskendey AQSh bastaghan Batys elderine: «eto ne blef!» dep, «songhy eskertuin» jasady.

«Aytylghan sóz - atylghan oq» ekeni ras bolsa, tútas jer shary joq boludyng aldynda-aq, túrdy. Alayda aragha ýsh ay salyp 2022 jyldyng 7 jeltoqsanynda «Adam qúqyghy jónindegi kezektegi bir otyrysynda» dәl osy sózin keri qaytaryp alghan Putiyn: «Resey yadrolyq qarudy birinshi bolyp qoldanbaydy, oghan tek qorghanys qúraly retinde qaraydy», - dep arty bos ekendigin kórsetti.

Resey diktatorynyng búlaysha shúghyl at basyn búruyna ne sebep boldy? 2000 jylghy 2-shi sheshen soghysy men 2008 jylghy Gruziyagha qarsy ashqan soghysy sәtti ayaqtalyp, 2014 jyly Qyrym týbegin op-onay basyp alghan aydyng osy rette aitylghan sózi qalaysha oq bolmay shyqty? Sol kezde búl súraq biraz adamdardy mazalaghany ras. Tek AQSh-tyng bir top sayasattanushylary ghana Putinnin: «Proshu prosheniya! Na samom dele to, chto ya skazal, bylo blefom», - dep әlem aldynda aitqanyn jútyp qoyatynyn boljap bilgen eken. Sebebi boylaryn ýrey biylegen Batys kósemderi aiygha qarsy qanday da bir shara qoldanu ýshin, әueli Garvard uniyvesiyteti t.b. bilim ordalaryna, «Qúrmetti politologtar, otangha qyzmet etuding uaqyty jetti, búghan sizder ne deysizder?» - dep qolqa salypty-mys. Sol kezde «ghalymdar» bir auyzdan Putinning «eskertuin» qaghaz betindegi bombagha tenep, «onyng oghy atylmaydy!» dep AQSh preziydentin júbatady.

Súraq: Ghalymdardyng búl senimi qaydan payda boldy?

Ghalymdar toby Aq ýiden mindetti alghan boyda Leyts-Djordjdyng «Operasiyalyq kodeksy» formulasyna jýgine otyryp, әri qaray Putin turaly tereng zerttedi. 1951-1953 jyldary «Qyrghiqabaq soghys» bastalyp, AQSh-tyng qúpiya barlau mekemesi Iosef Stalin jәne Sayasy buronyng syrtqa syr bildirmey, ýlken sheshimderdi ylghy da perdening artynda otyryp jasaytynyn bayqap, endi «janghaqty» qalay shaqsaq eken dep bastaryn qatyrghany bar. Aqyry, Natan Konstantin Leytsting eki enbegi «Sayasy buronyng operasiyalyq kodeksi» («The Operational Code of the Politburo») (1951)  jәne «Bolishevizmdi zertteu» («A Study of Bolshevism») (1953 j) kómekke keledi. AQSh-qa sol elden qonys audaryp, keyin Amerikanyng ghylymy taldau mektebining kýrdeli jattyghuynan ótken evrey ghalym «operasiyalyq kodekstyn» formulasyn 20 taraugha bólip, onda sayasy kósemderding minezdemesinen bastap, olardyng sheshim qabyldaugha negiz bolatyn barlyq atributtaryn ashyp beredi. 1967 jyly osy negizde Aleksandr L. Djordj tújyrymdamasy «formulagha» jana úghymdar engizip, «Operasiyalyq kodeks: Sayasy kóshbasshylar jәne olardyng sheshimi turaly zertteude nazardan tys qalghan әdisteme» (The «Operational code»: A neglected Approach to the Study of Political leaders and Decision-Making) atty enbek jazady. Ol Leytstyng úzyn sonar 20 tarauyn, 2 arna 10 tarmaqqa ainaldyryp, sayasy kóshbasshylargha jan-jaqty saraptama jýrgizuge negiz etedi.

Leyts-Djordj formulasy «sayasy kóshbasshylardyn» ýlken sheshimge baru ýshin eki arnadaghy 10 erekshelikterin tekserip bilu kerek deydi:

Filosofiyalyq baghytyndaghy 5 senimderi

*Sayasy әlem negizinen ýilesimdilikte me, әlde qaqtyghysta ma?

*Sayasy qúndylyqtardy jýzege asyrudyng perspektivalary qanday?

*Halyqaralyq sayasy arnadaghy damuyna boljau jasay alamyn ba?

*Tarihy ýderiske qanshalyqty «basqaru» nemese «yqpal» ete alamyn?

*Tarihy damudaghy «kezdeysoqtyq» jaghdaylar qanday ról oinaydy?

A. boyynsha tolyq saraptamadan keyin, Leyts-Djordj formulasy sayasy kóshbasshynyng 5 instrumentaldyq ólshemderine nazar audarady:

*Sayasy әreketti nemese mindetti tandaudyng eng jaqsy tәsili?

*Maqsatqa jetetin eng tiyimdi jol?

*Sayasy әreketting tәuekeldiligi qalay esepteledi?

*Sharany ilgeriletu ýshin eng jaqsy «uaqyt»?

*Kózdelgen mýddelerdi algha jyljytudyng qúraldary men róli qanday?

Leyts-Djordjdyng bergen «formulasyna» nemese әdistemesine jan bitiru  ýshin, kez-kelgen sayasy túlghanyng boyyndaghy barlyq qasiyeti men keri erekshelikterine toqtalugha tura keledi. Osy orayda AQSh-ghalymdary Putinning túlgha retinde onyng aqparattyq kenistigindegi aluan taqyrypta sóilegen sózderin, sonday-aq, onyng jeke ómiri turaly tolyq maghlúmat alugha tyrysqan. Olar әueli 2014 jyly Ukrainanyng Qyrym týbegin basyp aludaghy dikatordyng jasaghan әrbir qadamyna den qoyghan. Putin әueli Týbekke ayaq astynan «jasyl adamdardy» qaptatyp, «olar Resey jauyngerleri emes, biz olardyng kim ekenin de bilmeymiz!» dep әlemge  aqtalghan. Qyrymdy basyp alghan boyda barlyghyn úmytyp, Resey telearnasyna shyghyp shapkisin aspangha atyp, halqyna maqtanyp, isting jay-japsarynyng әrbir detalyna toqtalghanynan ghalymdar tobynyng týigen oiy «Búl endi búnymen toqtap qalmaytyny anyq!».

Osy oimen Putindi jaqyn jerden baqylaghan maman toby, Resey 2021 jyldyng ayaghy 2022 jyldyng basynda Ukraina shekarasyna әskerin orasan zor kólemde toptastyryp jatqanyn aityp, birden Aq ýige dabyl qaghyp, «soghystyng jaqyndaghanyn» úqtyrady. Mamandardyng búl jasalghan qorytyndysy AQSh barlau mekemesining qol jetkizgen qúpiya derekterimen ýndesip jatqanyn kórgen AQSh preziydetining ózi minberden әlem júrtshylyghyna «Resey egemen Ukraina jerine 2022 jyly nauryz aiynyng basynda basyp kiredi» - dep, dóp basyp jariya etken edi. Biraq kóp adamdargha búl auyl balasynyng iyt-qústan saqtanu turaly aighayynday estildi. Demek, AQSh tayap qalghan soghysty anyq boljam jasay alghan birden-bir el retinde jahan qauymynyng senimine ie boldy. Al, kóbimiz atalghan elding búlaysha Mәskeuding jasar qimylynyng tóbesinen osylaysha dәl týsuining sebebin bile bermeytinimiz anyq. Aq ýiding odan tolyq habary bolghandyqtan, Putin 2022 jyly qyrkýiekte «eto ne blef!» dep batys elderine ses kórsetkende dereu mamandar tobyna qayta qolqa salady.

Jogharydan tapsyrma alghan sayasattanushylar «Operasiyalyq kodekske» qayta oralyp Leyts-Djordj modelindegi bolishevikter «qarsy jaghy ózinen irileu bolyp, qarama-qarsy qatty kelse, bastapqy nysananyng oryndalamaytynyna kózi jetken boyda keri sheginis jasaydy...», degenin angharyp, 1962 jyldyng qazan aiyndaghy Kennediy-Hrushevtyng ara aiqasyn eske aldy. Ol kezde Kenes odaghy Kubada aqyry yadroldyq qaru qoymaytyn bolyp, tez sheginis jasaghany әli esemizde. Áueli qarsy jaqty ýrkitip, qorqytumen bastalghan qozghalys, maqsaty iske aspaytyn bolghan son, әp-sәtte-aq sheginis jasaudyng jolyn qarastyrghan Nikita Hrushevke qaraghanda Putin óte qatigez. Ol «aytylghan sóz - atylghan oq» retinde, alghan betinen qaytpasa she, degen qosymsha súraq ghalymdar tobyn taghy mazalady. Osy kezde saraptamada otyrghan kórnekti AQSh ghalymdary «formulanyn» sayasat әlemining kósemderining jeke ómirine nazar audarudy úmytpaugha shaqyrghanyn eske alyp, Resey diktatorynyng osal tústaryna oy jýgirtedi: Putinning qabyldauynda bolghan Emmanueli Makron orynsyz úzyn ýstelding bir búryshyna otyrghyzylghany; búl kýnderi alys-jaqyn sapargha Vladimiyrúly tek brondy poyyzben shyghatyny; Aleksey Navalinyidyng әshkereleuimen bizge mәlim bolghan onyng Qara teniz jaghajayyndaghy zәulim sarayy men Alina Qabaeva ekeuining «mahabbatasuy», sonday-aq Putinning qyzy ekeui jer-jerge tyqqan milliardtaghan aktivteri, t.b. diktatordyng shalqyp ómir sýrip jatqandyghynan habar beredi. Onday bolsa Putin ómirdi óte jaqsy kóretin «nәzik jan» bolghany ghoy, onyng qalghan diktatorlardan qanday aiyrmashylyghy bar? Joq! Ol shyndyghyna kelgende óte qorqaq adam. Búl jasalghan qorytyndylaryn Aq ýige jetkizgen ghalymdar toby, ózderining strategterine Mәskeuge qarsy dereu «Batystyng eselengen qatang eskertuin» jetkizudi súrady.

Nәtiyjesinde, AQSh preziydentinen senimdi telefon arqyly jәne aqparattyq kenestikti paydalanyp Putinning ózine qysqa da núsqa: «Ukraina jerine taktikalyq bomba laqtyratyn bolsan, seni «Armageddon» kýtip túr», - degen habardy jetkizedi. Mine, ózine әu basta jau etken, qorqytyp alamyn ba dep jýrgen AQSh-tyng «shalynan» osynday ýreyli jauap keldi. Osylaysha aragha ýsh ai-aq uaqyt tastap Putin «eskertuin» qaytaryp aldy dep jogharyda jazdyq. Osyny baqylauda ústap otyrghan Batys elderi endi batpaqqa batqan Reseydi «bolotanyn» terenine qaray iyteruge bel baylaghan siyaqty.  2023 jyly 20 sәuirde Kiyevke at basyn birinshi ret tiregen NATO-nyng bas hatshysy Yens Stoltenberg atalghan әskery odaq Ukrainany ózining tolyqqandy mýshesi retinde qúshaghyna alatynyn ashyq aitty. Ári osy eldi ýzdiksiz qarularmen qamtamasyz etetinin jetkizdi.

Búl qysqa maqalanyng qorytyndysy ne?

Birinshiden, Putin «strateg emes, orayshyl (opportunist) sayasatker!» «Kósem» retinde ol bayaghy Sayasy Buronyng mýshelerinen aiyrmashylyghy joq: ekeui de ótken kýnning belgisimen bolashaqqa joldau alady, jasaghan әrbir «strategiyayq» qadamy tek ótken kýnning núryna bólenip, qol jetkizgen jenisin qaytalaudy armanday beredi. Bireuge bergen uәdesin taban astynda búza salu olar ýshin týkke de túrmaydy. Áytpese 2009 jyly Putinning ózining qol qongymen Resey, AQSh jәne Úlybritaniya Ukrainanyng egemendigine kepil bildirgenin әlem úmytpaghan edi. Tipti jaqynda ghana (2023 jyly 21 nauryzda) Qytay KPS Shy Jinpinmen aradaghy birlesken kommunikiyde Resey óz tarapynan ýshinshi elge eshqanday yadroldyq qarudy shygharmaytyn bolyp eki jaq uәdelesken edi. Arty ne boldy? Shidyng tabany Beyjinge tiyer-tiymesten Mәskeu Belarusi topyraghyna taktikalyq yadrolyq qaruyn túrghyzatynyn aityp habar taratty.

Ekinshiden, Leyts-Djordjdyng zertteui SSSR zamanyndaghy Sayasy buro men bas hatshyny negiz etkeni, býgingi Putindi túlgha retinde sol qalypqa salyp shyghara salugha bolady degendik emes. Býgingi Vladimir Vladimiyrúly sayasy túlgha retinde memlekettin  tizginin  uysynda ústaghany, elining tútas mýddesinen  ózining jeke armanyn  joghary qoyyp, jәne oghan eshkimning qarsy kele almauynda. Nәtiyjesinde «Putinning Ukrainamen soghys bastauynyng sebebi – jeke renishi men kek alu niyetinde» bolghanyn bildik, yaghny atalghan elge shabuyl jasaugha sheshimdi 2021 jyly nauryz aiynda-aq qabyldap qoyghan.

Ýshinshiden, Batysta, әsirese AQSh-ta «cayasattanu ghylymy/political science» memleketting baghytyna ýlken yqpal jasay alatyn bilim salasyna ainalghany. AQSh-ta ghylymnyng búl salasy XIX ghasyrdyng orta kezeninde damy bastap, XX ghasyrdyng ekinshi jartysynda barshagha әigili boldy. Ol AQSh-tyng derjavalyq dengeyin saqtap qalugha ýlken ýlesin qosty, әri zor qúrmetke ie boldy. 1989 jyly Niu-York Tayms gazetining betinde Frensis Fukuyamanyng «Tarihtyng sony» atty maqalasy jariyalanghanyn bilemiz. Onda 1991 jyly SSSR-dyng týbegeyli qúlaytynyn boljap, post-kenestik zamanda әlemde «jana sayasy jýie ornaydy», dep shapkisin aspangha atady. Bipolyarlyq idiyalogiyagha bólingen әlem Batystyng qúndylyghyn negiz etken birpolyarlyq sayasy jýiege ainalady-mys. 1992 jyly әuelgi maqala tútas bir qomaqty monografiyagha ainalyp, «Tarihtyng sony jәne songhy adam» (The End of History and the Last Man) degen atpen basylyp shyghady. Áriyne múnday jýiening ornatyluyna qarsy shyghatyn kýshting de molynan bolatynyn avtor auyzgha alghysy kelmegen bolar.

1996 jyly onymen kelispeytinin birden bildirgen Garvard uniyversiytetining professory Semuel P. Hantington oiyn týiindep «Órkeniyetter qaqtyghysy jәne әlemdik tәrtipti qayta qúru» (The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order) atty enbegin jazdy. Onda halyqty kele jatqan basqa arnadaghy  órkeniyetter, onyng ishinde Batys pen músylman әlemi arasynda ýlken qaqtyghystyng kele jatqanyn eskertip, dabyl qaghady. Nәtiyjesinde 2001 jylghy 11 qyrkýiekte Ali-haydanyng AQSh-qa jasaghan terroristik shabuyly, tolyq dәleldengen Hantingtonnyng tújyrymynyn,sonday-aq, jalpy әlemge  órkeniyette sayasattanu ghylymynyng qanshalyqty manyzdy ekenin anghartty.

Qortyndy: Putin ne demeydi shhhha ne jemeydi; batystyng palitologtary bolar iske boljam jasap oljaly bolsa, bizding sayasattanushylary bolghan iske taldau jasap qyzyltanau bolady.

Jiger Janәbil

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