Rejep Tayyp Erdoghannyng mәlimdeuinshe, Týrik Respublikasynyng qoldanystaghy zannamasyn eskere otyryp, 31 nauryzdaghy munisipaldy saylau ózi ýshin songhy bolady.

Alda bolatyn munisipaldy saylau Erdoghannyng biyleushi Ádildik jәne damu partiyasynyng (ÁDP) basshysy retindegi songhy elektoraldy kezeni ghana emes, Týrkiya preziydenti retinde de son,ysy boluy mýmkin.

Ekinshi jaghynan, Erdoghan 2023 jylghy preziydenttik saylau Týrkiyanyng qoldanystaghy zannamasyna sәikes ózi ýshin songhysy bolady dep aitqan bolatyn.

Erdoghannyng múrasy:

Rejep Tayyp Erdoghan qaldyratyn basty múra - tehnologiyalyq túrghydan damyghan ónerkәsiptik jәne auyl sharuashylyghy óndirisi, memlekettik basqarudyng tiyimdi jýiesi jәne últtyq qauipsizdikti qamtamasyz etu qúraldaryn qalyptastyratyn týrik injenerlik iydeyasy.

Suret: bbc.com

Mirasqor kim?

Sonymen qatar Rejep Tayyp Erdoghannyng bolashaq qadamdaryn týsindiruding naqty auqymy bar. Onyng qazirgi preziydenttik ókilettigi 2028 jyly, Erdoghan 75 jasqa tolghanda ayaqtalady.

Bizding zamanymyzsha, kezekti quatty serpilis jasaudy josparlaghan sayasatker ýshin әreket etuge qabiletti jastan asqan.

Taghy bir mәsele -2028 jylgha qaray baqylaushylargha partiyadaghy kóshbasshylyqty tapsyru ayasynda Erdoghannyng kim dayarlaytyny týsinikti bolady. Nemese kem degende Týrkiya preziydenti sayasy kóshbasshylyq estafetasyn bergisi keletin (nemese kerisinshe, bas tartatyn) adamdardyng ishinen short-paraq anyqtalady.

Biraq 2028 jylgha deyin taghy da bes jyl bar. Oghan deyin Ukrainadaghy әskery is-qimyldardyng belsendi kezeni ayaqtaluy mýmkin.

Reseyding NATO-men tikeley soqtyghysu qaupinen nemese osynday soqtyghysu faktisinen keyin qauipsizdik aimaqtaryn (nemese okkupasiyany) bóludi resimdeytin qanday da bir qújatqa shyghu mýmkindigi bar.

Bes jyldan keyin soghys ekonomikasyna tartylghan Germaniya men Fransiyadaghy ekonomikalyq jaghday týsinikti bolady. Reseyding jaghdayy, Qytaydaghy ózgerister, atap aitqanda, onyng Tayuangha qatysty sayasaty aiqyn bolady. Sonday-aq Beyjinning tek әlemdik kóshbasshy ekonomika ghana emes, Aziya, Afrikanyng bir bóligi jәne Euraziyanyng birqatar ónirleri ýshin transónirlik «jandarm» bola alatyny týsinikti bolady.

Osy uaqytqa deyin sayasy sahnada Tramp ta, Bayden de qalmaydy. 2028 jyly AQSh-ta Tramp pen Baydenning (biri 82 jasta, ekinshisi 86 jasta) emes, Demokratiyalyq jәne Respublikalyq partiyalardyng lagerlerining jana adamdarynyng qatysuymen preziydenttik saylau nauqany qyzu jýredi. Biraq 2028 jyly da AQSh Batys әlemining taghdyryn anyqtaytynyna kýmәn joq.

Osy kezde Reseyde onyng әskery ekonomikasy damyghan (2024 jylgha RF budjetindegi әskery shyghystardyng ýlesi rekordtyq 29 payyzgha jetti, yaghny JIÓ-ning shamamen 6 payyzy) «sayasy túraqtylyq» saqtalady, sebebi Vladimir Putinning preziydenttik ókilettigi 2030 jyldyng mamyrynda ghana ayaqtalady...

Suret: bbc.com

Týrkiya ýshin ýsh ssenariy:

Birinshi ssenariy - Europagha baghyt

2028 jylgha qaray Týrkiyanyng Euroodaqqa resmy kirui taqyryby ózektilikke ie bolady. Nege formaldy? Sebebi, is jýzinde Germaniya men Europanyng basqa da elderindegi milliondaghan týrik diasporasyn eskersek, Týrkiya Euroodaqtyng әleumettik-ekonomikalyq kartasynda óz ornyn búrynnan alghan.

Búl jaghdayda Ankaranyng EO-gha resmy týrde kirui ne ýshin kerek degen súraq tuyndaydy? Týrkiya Euroodaqqa resmy mýshe retinde kerek pe? Mәselen, Brusseliding sayasy elitasynyng antagonizmine qaramastan, Týrkiyanyng EO-gha kiru núsqasy jalpyeuropalyq integrasiya daghdarysynan shyghudyng belgili bir ssenariyi siyaqty kórinedi.

Ankaranyng EO-gha mýsheligi Brusseliding syrtqy sayasatynyng stiylin konfrontasiyadan sayasy sauda-sattyqqa jәne sahna syrtyndaghy kelissózderge deyin ózgertui mýmkin. Búl soghystan keyingi 1990-2000 jyldargha oralu núsqasy.

Býginde arab elderi men músylman Afrikasynan, sonday-aq postkenestik kenistikten kóshi-qonnyng jinaqtalghan әleueti sayasy kóshbasshylyqty nemese ókildikti qajet etedi. Mysaly, Fransiyanyng 68 million túrghynynyng 19 milliony islam dinin ústanatyn sheteldikter. Sondyqtan 2030 jyldary EO qúramyna engen Týrkiya Euroodaqta músylman halyqtarynyng ókili bola alady.

Múnday jaghdayda Týrkiya da birikken Europanyng Putindik Reseyge qarsy antagonizm dengeyin tómendete alar edi. Búl Euroodaq ýshin de, oppozisiya eurointegrasiya mәselelerine basa nazar audaratyn Týrkiya ýshin de jaman nәtiyje bolmas edi.

Erdoghan ortashyl onshyl konservativtik ústanymdardan shyghyp, qazirgi tanda zayyrly islam qúndylyqtaryna baghdar ústanuda. Sonymen qatar Ankaranyng ong konservatorlyq kózqarasy Euroodaq elderinde de barghan sayyn týsinistikke ie boluda. Sondyqtan keleshekte Europanyng jana sayasy túghyrnamasyn qalyptastyru ayasynda islamdyq jәne hristiandyq tәsilderding belgili bir sintezin elestetuge bolady.

Europa tereng ózgeristerding jetek belbeulerin elemey, «teatrlyq» jәne basqa da jaghdayattargha tym әuestendi... Týrkiyanyng Europagha kirui, sózsiz, europalyq sayasatty sauyqtyryp qana qoymay, kóbinese tereng ózgerte alar edi, oghan Brusselide bәri de dayyn emes. Alayda, Viktor Orban siyaqty sayasy kóshbasshylar týrki integrasiyasy jaghynda bolatyny anyq.

Kollaj: Abai.kz

Ekinshi ssenariy - avtarkiyalyq modeli

Europalyq integrasiya ssenariyine balama - búl Týrkiyanyng «europalyq emes» Euraziyanyng óz kýshteri men resurstaryna basym sýienui. Yaghni, shektes memleketter ýshin, sonday-aq Týrki әlemining bir bóligi ýshin (Ázerbayjanmen odaqtastyq qatynastardy nyghaytu) jeke tartu ortalyghyn qúru.

Búl sonday-aq TMD/EAEO memleketterining óniri arqyly Reseymen neghúrlym tyghyz ekonomikalyq qatynastardy saqtau jәne damytu núsqasy. Aqyrynda, avtarkiyalyq, yaghny ózin-ózi qanaghattandyratyn ssenariy, «europalyq» ssenariy Týrkiyanyng irgeles negizgi memleketteri - Iran jәne Mysyrmen kórshilestik sayasatyn nyghaytudy, Ontýstik Kavkazda Gruziya jәne Armeniyamen qarym-qatynasty nyghaytudy, sonday-aq Ukrainany Týrkiyanyng әskeri-ekonomikalyq yqpal etu aimaghynda saqtaudy kózdeydi.

Múnday ssenariydi resurstardy qysqartu, jahandyq kommunikasiyalardy tejeu jәne toqtatu, AQSh-tyng europalyq isterge basymdyq beruimen baylanysty әlemdik qauipsizdikting eski modelining jalpy osaldyghy siyaqty әlemdik ekonomikanyng aghymdaghy syn-qaterleri men ýrdisterine jauap dep sanaugha bolady. Múnday ssenariyde Týrkiya ózining azyq-týlik, energetikalyq jәne tehnologiyalyq qauipsizdigin damytudy jalghastyrady.

Sayasi-ekonomikalyq belgisizdik jaghdayynda naqty aktivterge, yaghny jerge, sugha, tynaytqyshtargha, azyq-týlikke, miyneraldyq shiykizat pen energiya kózderine eng jaqsy qoljetimdiligi bar elder neghúrlym útymdy jaghdayda ekenin týsinu manyzdy. Is jýzinde Týrkiya ýshin búl aktivter Reseyde jәne TMD/EAEO ónirinde shoghyrlanghan.

Ýshinshi ssenariy - «sintetikalyq» kóp vektorly

Ankaranyng europalyq jәne avtarkiyalyq damu jelisin ýshinshi jolgha biriktiruge bola ma?

Tәjiriybe kórsetkendey, Ankara ýshin «galsamen jýru» qol jetimdi bolyp qana qoymay, ony Mәskeu men Vashington belgili bir jaghday retinde qabyldaydy. Áriyne, jana úzaq merzimdi bloktyq tosqauyldar men «aqparattyq-sauda shymyldyqtary» payda bolatyn kýrdeli әlemdik konfrontasiya kezeninde múny jasau әldeqayda qiyn.

Alayda Erdoghan biylikte bolghan jyldary eng bastysy - týrik azamattarynyng jas úrpaghynyng әleueti men ambisiyasynyng dengeyin kótere aldy. Endi qazirgi týrik qoghamy turaly әngimening artynda biz búl elde týrli dengeylerdegi «arman komandasynyn» belsendi qalyptasuyn әrdayym kórip otyrghanymyz normagha ainaldy, sondyqtan da tehnikanyng perspektivaly ýlgilerin әzirleushilerding mamandyqtary - elektr kólikterinen bastap әskery úshqyshsyz úshaqtar men gharysh tehnikasyna deyin, jýie injenerleri men baghdarlamashylargha deyin jәne t.b. qanshalyqty súranysqa ie ekenin kórip otyrmyz.

Rejep Tayyp Erdoghan qaldyratyn basty múra - búl ózining tehnologiyalyq damyghan ónerkәsiptik jәne auyl sharuashylyghy óndirisin, memlekettik basqarudyng tiyimdi jýiesin jәne últtyq qauipsizdikti qamtamasyz etu qúraldaryn qalyptastyratyn týrik injenerlik iydeyasy.

Eger qazirgi zamanghy әlem ýrdisterin negizge alatyn bolsaq, Týrkiyanyng arsenaly men «óz tiregi» qúraldarynyng jiyntyghy osy elding ainalasynda bolashaqtyng makroónirleri qalyptasa bastauyna yqpal etedi.

Abai.kz