Resey Qytaydyng negizgi qaru-jaraq seriktesi mәrtebesin joghaltyp jatyr: 2009-2023 jyldar aralyghynda Qytaygha jetkizilim aldynghy 15 jylmen salystyrghanda 40 %-gha qysqardy. Reseydegi putindik biyleushi rejiymi kezinde Qytaygha reseylik qaru-jaraq aghyny tez qysqardy.

«Qytay Reseyden qaru satyp aludyng ornyna tehnologiyany jappay úrlaudy jәne reseylik qaru-jaraq jýielerin kóshirudi jón kórdi» delingen The Moscow Times gazetindegi maqalada. Basylym ChinaPower analitikalyq ortalyghynyng derekterine silteme jasap, 2009-2023 jyldar aralyghynda Qytaygha reseylik qaru-jaraq jetkizu aldynghy 15 jylmen salystyrghanda 40 %-gha qysqarghanyn jazghan.

Qúldyrauynyn sebebi nede?

Sebepter tek Ukrainadaghy soghys emes, sonymen qatar Qytaydyng Resey jýielerin klondau jәne ónerkәsiptik tynshylyq boyynsha úzaq merzimdi strategiyasy da bar. 2000-shi jyldardyng basynan beri keminde jiyrmadan astam hakerler shabuyldary men óndiristik tynshylyq tirkeldi, sonyng ishinde aviasiya jәne sputniktik tehnologiyalar turaly derekterding qoldy boluy. Tek 2021 jyldan 2023 jylgha deyin aerogharyshtyq jәne lazerlik salalargha әser etetin tórt jayt tirkeldi. Mәselen, sonau 2004 jyly Qytay tarapyna qúpiya aqparatty jetkizgeni ýshin Reseyde jeti adam sottalghan bolatyn.

Sonymen birge Qytay Reseyding әskery tehnikasyn klondau arqyly liysenziyalyq kelisimderdi jýieli týrde búzdy. Mysal retinde Su-27 negizindegi J-11 joyghysh úshaghyn jәne vizualdy jәne tehnikalyq jaghynan S-300-ge úqsas HQ-9 zenittik jýiesin keltiruge bolady. 2019 jyly «Rosteh» memlekettik korporasiyasy Qytaydy әskery ónimderding әrtýrli týrlerin klondau ýshin tikeley aiyptap, óz ónimderin zansyz kóshiruding 500 jaghdayyn habarlady.

Qytaydyng Resey qaruynan tәuelsizdik alu kursy

Osynyng ayasynda Beyjing ózining jeke óndirisin qúra otyryp, reseylik týpnúsqa jabdyqtardy satyp aludy ýnemi qysqartty. Degenmen, bir negizgi salada tәueldilik saqtalady: úshaq qozghaltqyshtary. 2017-2023 jyldar aralyghynda olar Qytaydyng qaru-jaraq importy qúnynyng jartysynan kóbin qúrady, Resey negizgi jetkizushi bolyp qala berdi.

Degenmen, búl baghytta Qytay osy tәueldilikti joy ýshin ózining elektr stansiyalarynyng jelisin belsendi týrde damytuda.

Beyjin-Mәskeu әskery qatynasynda rólderding ózgerui

Qazirgi jaghdayda Resey qytaylyq qúramdas bólikter men tehnologiyalardyng negizgi tútynushysyna ainaluda. AQSh barlauynyng mәlimeti boyynsha, Beyjing Mәskeuge qos maqsattaghy komponentterdi jetkizedi: drondar, jartylay ótkizgishter, joyghysh úshaqtardyng bólshekteri, REB jýieleri jәne әsirese әskery óndiris ýshin óte manyzdy ChPU mashinalary. 2022 jyldyng qantarynan bastap múnday mashinalardy jetkizu kólemi 10 esege juyq ósti – aiyna 7 milliard dollardan 68 milliard dollargha deyin. Sonymen birge Beyjing Reseyge әskery ónimderdi jetkizudi resmy týrde joqqa shygharudy jalghastyruda.

Ýndistan da Reseyding әlsizdigin paydalanyp, manyzdy naryqty jaulap aldy. Resey Ukrainagha basyp kirgennen keyin әlem orys tehnikasynyng naqty baghasyn kórdi jәne búl bagha әskery masqara bolyp shyqty.

Endi Ýndistan Resey kliyentterining jolyn kespekshi. «Reseyding jenilmeytin qaruy» turaly mif kóz aldymyzda kýirep barady. Putin armiyasy Ukrainada tehnikasyn joghaltyp jatqanda, Ýndistan Kremliding búrynghy kliyentterine arzan, jappay óndirilgen jәne sayasy qauipsiz qaru úsynyp, әlemdik qaru-jaraq naryghynda Reseyding ornyn basugha dayyndaluda, dep jazady Reuters.

Resey qaruy tym qymbat bolyp shyqty

Birneshe jyldar boyy Mәskeu әskery derjava retinde  qaru satty. «Tendesi joq» tankter, zymyrandar jәne әue shabuylyna qarsy qorghanys jýieleri turaly shuly mәlimdemeler Aziya, Afrika jәne Latyn Amerikasynyng ondaghan elderimen kelisimdermen sýiemeldendi.

Biraq Ukrainagha basyp kirgennen keyin shyndyq ashyldy. Reseylik әue qorghanysy jýieleri HIMARS-qa tótep bere almaydy, tankter kamikadze drondarynan órtenip jatyr, «NATO analogtary» batys oq-dәrilerining shabuylynan qúlap jatyr.

Stokgolimdegi halyqaralyq beybitshilikti zertteu institutynyng (SIPRI) mәlimeti boyynsha, songhy bes jylda reseylik qaru-jaraq eksporty 64%-gha qysqardy.

Ýndistan ambisiyasy bar jana oiynshy

Al dәl qazir Resey tek ishki maydan ýshin qaru-jaraq shygharugha den qoyghan kezde, Ýndistan ózining dәstýrli tútynushylaryn shyrghalay  bastady, dep jazady Reuters 15 derekkózge, onyng ishinde sheneunikter men sala mamandaryna silteme jasap. Sheneunikterding aituynsha, olardyng qatarynda búghan deyin KSRO men Reseyden ondaghan jyldar boyy tehnika satyp alghan elder, sonyng ishinde Armeniya, Aljiyr, Marokko, Tanzaniya, Argentinalar. bar

Tehnologiyalar, nesiyeler jәne agressivti eksport

Narendra Mody ýkimeti 2029 jylgha qaray qaru-jaraq eksportyn eki ese úlghaytyp, 6 milliard dollargha jetkizudi maqsat etip qoydy. Qazirding ózinde Ýndistan jylyna 14,8 milliard dollargha qaru-jaraq shygharady (ýsh jylda 62 %-gha ósti), sayasy nemese qarjylyq tәuekeli joghary elderge arzan nesiyeler úsynady, ýndilik tehnologiyalardy shetelde tikeley ilgeriletu ýshin әskery attasheler jelisin keneytedi, jauyngerlik tikúshaqtardyn, úshqyshsyz úshaqtardyng jәne zymyrandyq jýielerding jattyghulary men kórsetilimderin ótkizedi. Sonymen qatar, Ýndistan artilleriyalyq oq-dәrilerdi europalyq analogtardan 10 ese arzan úsynady: bir snaryad ýshin 3 000 dollardyng ornyna 300 dollardan bastalady.

Resey útylyp jatyr, al әlem óz basymdyqtaryn qayta qarastyruda

Eng bastysy, Resey qaruyna arqa sýiegen elder endi balama izdep, Ýndistangha kóbirek úmtyluda. Búl memleketter NATO standarttaryna tolyghymen kóshuge dayyn emes, biraq olar endi oqshaulanghan, әlsiz jәne boljaugha kelmeytin Reseyge tәueldi bolghysy kelmeydi. Tipti «Rosoboroneksport» qazir tikeley emes, «dostyq memleketter» ýshin Ýndistanmen birlesken óndiris arqyly jetkizu turaly aitady, yaghny ol búrynghy kliyenttermen ýshinshi taraptar arqyly kelissózder jýrgizuge mәjbýr. Resey bedeli men naryghyn joghaltyp jatqanda, Ýndistan kýsheyip keledi, pragmatikalyq, iykemdi jәne bәsekege dayyn.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov,

tariyh ghylymdarynyn kandidaty, S. Seyfulliyn atyndaghy Qazaq agrotehnikalyq zertteu uniyversiytetinin dosenti

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