Keyingi jyldary Últtyq bank tenge baghamynyng túraqtylyghyn saqtaugha meylinshe kýsh salyp kelgeni bolatyn. Búl, ainalyp kelgende, ekonomikalyq jәne qarjylyq túraqtylyqty qamtamasyz etuding alghysharty ekeni týsinikti. Biraq, ishki-syrtqy yqpaldargha baylanysty Últtyq bank aqsha sayasatyn qayta qaraugha mәjbýr bolghanyn bilesizder. Osy rette astanalyqtardy tolghandyryp jýrgen saualdargha Qazaqstan Respublikasy Últtyq banki Ortalyq bólimshesining diyrektory M.H.Seyfullin jauap beredi.
– Juyrda tól tengemizding baghamy kýrt tómendegeni túrghyndar arasynda dýrbeleng tudyrdy. Últtyq valutany búlaysha kenetten devalivasiyalaugha iytermelegen nendey jaghday?

Keyingi jyldary Últtyq bank tenge baghamynyng túraqtylyghyn saqtaugha meylinshe kýsh salyp kelgeni bolatyn. Búl, ainalyp kelgende, ekonomikalyq jәne qarjylyq túraqtylyqty qamtamasyz etuding alghysharty ekeni týsinikti. Biraq, ishki-syrtqy yqpaldargha baylanysty Últtyq bank aqsha sayasatyn qayta qaraugha mәjbýr bolghanyn bilesizder. Osy rette astanalyqtardy tolghandyryp jýrgen saualdargha Qazaqstan Respublikasy Últtyq banki Ortalyq bólimshesining diyrektory M.H.Seyfullin jauap beredi.
– Juyrda tól tengemizding baghamy kýrt tómendegeni túrghyndar arasynda dýrbeleng tudyrdy. Últtyq valutany búlaysha kenetten devalivasiyalaugha iytermelegen nendey jaghday?
– Birinshiden, búl – qolda bar altyn-valuta qoryn saqtaudyng amaly. Keyingi bes aidyng ishinde Últtyq bank tengening túraqtylyghyn ústap túrugha 6 milliard dollar shyghyndady. Búnyng 2,7 milliardy aghymdaghy jyldyng qantar aiyna tap keldi. Ekinshiden, otandyq ónimning bәsekege qabilettiligin qoldau. Elimizding 1998-1999 jyldardaghy tәjiriybesinen de, tauarlarynyng bәsekege qabilettiligi tómendep ketken ózge memleketterding de tәjiriybesine jýginsek, tauaróndirushilerding mýddesin qorghauda devalivasiyadan artyq jol joq ekenin kóremiz. Búlardan ózge tengeni devalivasiyalaugha syrtqy faktorlar da yqpal etkenin aituymyz kerek. Syrtqy yqpal degende, birinshiden, auyzgha ekonomikalyq daghdarysqa baylanysty múnay baghasynyng tómendep ketui ilinedi. Sonday-aq, Qazaqstannyng sauda-sattyq jónindegi әriptesi sanalatyn elderding tól aqshasyn devalivasiya jasaghany. Eger biz tengemizdi 25 payyzgha qúnsyzdandyrsaq, reseydik rubli - 44 payyzgha, ukrain grivnasy - 53 payyzgha, Belarusi valutasy 28 payyzgha devalivasiyalandy.
– Tenge 25 payyzgha devalivasiyalandy. Yaghni, búl kýneltis sebeti de 25 payyzgha qymbattaydy degen sóz be?
– Tútynushylar sebeti qymbattauyn qymbattaydy. Biraq, búl bolmashy ghana. Sebebi, bizding dýkenderimizdegi tauarlardyng bәri birdey importtyq emes. Tútynylatyn taghamdardyng kópshiligi elimizde óndiriledi. Al, qazir dýkenderde satylyp jatqan, shetelden tenge qúnsyzdanghangha deyin әkelingen tauarlar qymbattamaydy. Óitkeni, olar devalivasiyagha deyin, yaghni, aqshanyng búrynghy baghamymen jasalghan kelisim-shart boyynsha әkelindi. Eger aldaghy uaqytta importtyq ónimderding qúny qymbattaytyn bolsa, búl jaghday otandyq ónimderge degen súranysty kóbeytedi. Endeshe, qazaqstandyq tauar óndirushilerding bәsekege qabilettiligi artuynyng bir joly osy.
– Degenmen, kóptegen tauar baghasy aqsha aiyrbastau baghamy ózgergen kýni-aq qymbattap shygha keldi. Múnday jayt nege negizdeldi?
– Ras, aiyrbastau baghamy ózgergen kýni-aq tauar qúnyn negizsiz kóterip, jaghdaydy óz paydasyna ynghaylap alghysy kelgen kәsiporyndar az bolghan joq. Alayda, osy rette Ýkimet te qarap qalmady. Qazirgi kezde Premier-ministr Kәrim Mәsimovting tapsyrmasymen Astana qalasynyng әkimdigi elordada tauar baghalarynyng negizsiz ósuine jol bermeudi túraqty qadaghalauda.
Baghamy dinamikasy Últtyq bankting da baqylauynda. Yaghni, búl – elimiz boyynsha bagha túraqtylyghyn qamtamasyz etu joly. Últtyq bankting ortalyq bólimshesining qyzmetkerleri elorda bazarlaryndaghy, sauda ortalyqtaryndaghy, iri-iri sauda-sattyq nýktelerindegi barlyq tauarlardyng baghalaryna qatysty apta sayyn taldau-saraptau júmystaryn jýrgizude.
– Aldaghy uaqytta tengening dollargha shaqqandaghy aiyrbas baghamy kemy týsui mýmkin be?
– Últtyq bank tarapynan búghan deyin de mәlim etilgenindey, tengening aiyrbas baghamy әr dollargha 150 tengening shamasynan auytqymauy tiyis. Al, plus-minus - 3 payyzgha, yaghni, 5 tengege auytquy – әuelden josparlanghan zandylyq. Búl – juyrda qayta qaralmaytyn orta merzimdik baghdar. Osy jerde myna jaytty nyqtap aitugha tiyispiz: Últtyq bank valuta naryghynda alayaqtyq әreketter oryn almauyn múqiyat qadaghalaydy jәne aiyrbas baghamy jogharyda atalghan deygeyden auytqymauyna jauap beredi.
– Tenge/dollar aiyrbas baghamyna aldaghy uaqytta qanday jayt yqpal etui mýmkin?
– Birinshi kezekte – shiykizat naryghyndaghy bagha dinamikasy. Eger múnay baghasy qymbattaghan jaghdayda tenge baghamy da nyghaya týsui әbden yqtimal. Sonymen qatar, tenge/dollar auystyrym baghasyna valutagha importtyq tauarlar satyp alu kezinde súranys tughan jaghdayda jәne asa auqymdy syrtqy nesiyelerdi jabu kezinde aitarlyqtay ózgeris enui mýmkin.
– Aqsha aiyrbastau barysynda alayaqtargha úrynyp qalmau ýshin halyqqa qanday kenes berer ediniz?
– Túrghyndar dýrbelenge salynyp, jaghdaydy bas paydasyna sheshkisi keletinderge aldanbauy kerek. Onyng ýstine qazir qanday da bir alayaqtyq әreketke mýmkindik beretin mehanizm joq. Astananyng aiyrbastau punktteri tútynushylardy sheteldik valutamen qolma-qol qamtamasyz etuge qauqarly. Olarda basqa bankterden de, shetelden 600 million dollar әkelgen Últtyq bankten de qarajat jetkilikti. Sondyqtan, men túrghyndardy alayaqtyqtan saqtandyru ýshin aqsha bankterding arnayy aiyrbastau bólimshelerinen alugha kenes berer edim. Sebebi, banktik emes bólimshelerde devalivasiyanyng alghashqy kýnderi kemshilikter jii tirkeldi. Degenmen de, Astananyng banktik emes aiyrbastau bólimshelerindegi jaghday – aqsha auystyrugha qatysty dýrbeleng tudyrghysy keletinderge shara qoldanu qúzyretine ie Últtyq bank Ortalyq bólimshesining baqylauynda.
– Devalivasiya nәtiyjesinde aqshasyn shetel valutasymen saqtaghan salymshylar útty. Qalyptasqan jaghdayda aldaghy uaqytta shyghyngha úshyramas ýshin salymshylar qay aqsha ólshemine senim artqanyn qúptaysyz?
– Dúrys aitasyz. Devalivasiya kezinde shetel aqshasynyng salymshylary ókinishke úshyraghan joq. Al, 2003-2007 jyldar aralyghyndaghy 4 jylda tengemen depozit ústaushylardyng baghy janyp kelgen-di. Osy rette jyldar boyy Últtyq bank basshylyghy eskertip kelgen jaytty qaytalaghym keledi: adamdar óz menshigindegi aqshany 2-3 «sebetke» bólip ústaghany jón. Onyng 50 payyzy tól tengemiz bolsyn, qalghan 50 payyzyn óziniz kóbirek kerek etetin birneshe valutagha bólip salynyz. Sondyqtan, osynau keneske qúlaq asqandar útylmaydy.
Meninshe, salymyn tengemen ústaytyn túrghyndar dollargha auysugha әuestenbegeni jón. Sebebi, osy aidyng 16-nan bastap qarajatyn shetel aqshasymen saqtaytyn jeke túlghalargha yntalandyru ýstemeaqysy 10 payyzdan 8 payyzgha tómendetildi. Esesine, tenge ústaushylargha kerisinshe, jyldyq yntalandyru aqysy 13,5 payyzgha deyin jogharylatyldy.
– Ýkimet devalivasiyadan eki kýn búryn «BTA bank» AQ-nyng 78,14 payyzdyq aksiyasyn satyp alghany mәlim. Búl jayt bank qyzmetin tútynushylar men salymshylar arasynda neshe týrli arandatushy, alypqashpa qauesetterdi kóbeytti. Búghan qatysty qanday týsinikteme berer ediniz?
– IYә, bankterding qarjylyq jaghdayy turaly qaueset taratylghany ras. Keybiri sanaly týrden qoldan úiymdastyryldy. Endi birin ahualdy baqylaudy ústay almaghan adamdar tarapynan shyghyp jatty. Shyn mәninde «BTA bank» AQ aksiyasyn satyp alu salymshylar mýddesin qorghau maqsatynda jýzege asyryldy. Atalghan bank kapitalyna memleketting aralasuy onyng qarjylyq jaghdayyn onaltyp, barlyq salymshylar men nesie berushilerding júmysyna janasha qarqyn syilaytyny sózsiz.

Ermen TILEKQABYL.