Qazirgi uaqytta Tayau Shyghystaghy Iran tónireginde qalyptasqan ahualdy taldau osy ónirdegi túraqsyzdyqtyng kýrdeli sipat alyp otyrghanyn kórsetude.

Songhy kýnderi AQSh pen Iran arasyndaghy shiyelenis kýrdelene týsti. Islam Respublikasynyng әskeriyleri Qúrama Shtattardyng úshqyshsyz apparatyn 20 mausymda atyp qúlatqannan keyin búl qadamdy «asa ýlken qatelik» dep baghalaghan D.Tramp dereu IIYR-ding ýsh birdey nysanyna qarymta shabuyl jasaugha әmir berdi. Biraq, ol shabuyldy bastaugha 10 minut qalghanda rayynan qaytty. Osy aralyqta kýlli jahan ishten tynyp, shiyelenisting sony ushyghyp ketpey me dep qatty alandap otyrdy. Resey Preziydenti V.Putin kez kelgen shiyeleniske aralastynday Mәskeuding «órt sóndiretin top emes» ekenin, degenmen soghysty bastau kem degende ónirlik apatqa әkep soghatynyn eskertti. Shynynda da, búl ónirdegi oqigha oq-dәrige toly qoymagha jaqyn aragha nayzaghay úshqyny týsip, tútanugha shaq qalghanday әser qaldyrdy.

Irandyq әskeriyler elding әue kenistigine engen amerikalyq úshqyshsyz apparatty nysanagha alar aldynda oghan eskertu joldaghanyn, alayda tiyisti jauap alynbaghanyn, sonday-aq apparat qasynda úshyp kelgen otyz shaqty adam tiyelgen úshaqty atpaghanyn habarlady. Amerikalyqtar irandyqtardyng songhy atalghan sheshimin qúptap, qaperine alghanday synay tanytty.

Degenmen, AQSh Preziydenti D.Tramp pen Memlekettik hatshy M.Pompeo 25 mausymda Irangha jana sanksiya týrleri salynyp, qysym odan әri kýsheytiletinin jarysa mәlimdedi.

AQSh Preziydenti D.Tramptyng bastamasymen byltyr Qúrama Shtattardyng Tegeran men alpauyt elder arasynda Iran yadrolyq isi jóninde 2015 jyly jasasylghan Jan-jaqty qamtylghan birlesken is-qimyl josparynan (JQBIJ) birjaqty shyghuy, odan keyin Irangha sanksiyalyq qysymdy kýsheytui, biyl IIYR-di kelissóz ýsteline otyrghyzu maqsatynda Oman shyghanaghyna әskery kýshterin jiberui ónirdegi onsyz da túraqsyz jaghdaydy shiyelenistire týsti. Vashingtonnyng atalghan kópjaqty sharttan shyghuyna qatysty Tegeran AQSh-ty ózi qabyldaghan mindettemelerin oryndamady dep aiyptady. D.Tramp búl shartty tarihy qatelik dep baghalap, oghan qatysushy ózge de memleketterge JQBIJ-den shyghugha kenes berdi. Europa elderi kóp jyldar boyy tabandy kelissózder arqasynda (Amerikanyng da qatysuymen) qol jetkizilgen halyqaralyq qújattan shyghudyng dúrys bola qoymaytynyn jetkizip, ózining Vashingtonnyng yqpalynsyz, derbes sayasat jýrgizetinin kórsetkisi keldi.

Degenmen, Vashington IIR múnayyn importtaugha qatang tyiym salyp, onyng әriptesterine osy elmen sauda jasaspau kerektigi boyynsha shekteuler engizdi. Tegeran búl qysymdardy «ekonomikalyq soghys» nemese «ekonomikalyq terrorizm» dep atap, olargha oray tiyisinshe qarymta jauap beriletinin ashyp aitty.

JQBIJ-ge deyin Irannyng sanksiyalardy ainalyp ótu tetikteri bar edi, al songhy sanksiyanyng tegeurini qatty sezildi. Aldynghy sanksiyalar túsynda әlemdegi nómiri birinshi ekonomika elining talabyna onsha qúlaq asa qoymay, Iranmen ashyq, keyde jasyryn sauda jasasuyn toqtatpaghan Beyjing búl joly ústamdy keyipke kóshti. Álbette, Qytay Iranmen aradaghy shamamen 35-40 milliard dollar bolatyn saudadan góri AQSh-pen aradaghy kólemi 600 milliard dollargha juyq saudany saqtau jaghyna tandau jasaytyny aiqyn.

Nәtiyjesinde, IIYR-ding múnay eksportynan týsetin tabystyng kýrt azangy saldarynan Irannyng ishki sayasiy-әleumettik jaghdayy qúldyray týsti. El Preziydenti H.Ruhany sanksiya kesirinen eldegi jaghdaydyng Iran-Irak soghysy kezindegi ahualdan da qiyndaghanyn ashyq moyyndady. Aqshanyng qúnsyzdanuy rekordtyq dengeyge jetip, tútynu zattarynyng baghasy jýz payyzgha deyin sharyqtady.

Osynday qysyltayang uaqytta AQSh óz qysymyna ekpin qosu, Iran tarapynan bolady-mys delingen qauipti seyiltu, ónirdegi túraqtylyqty saqtap túru maqsatynda Tayau Shyghys ónirine әskery kýshterin jiberdi. Alayda, AQSh kýshteri Oman shyghanaghyna kelgeli ónirdegi túraqtylyq shayqala týsti. Songhy kezde Norvegiya men Japoniyanyng tankerlerine jasalghan shabuylgha AQSh Irandy kinәlady. Al, Iran múny birden joqqa shygharyp, oqighany «kýmәndi» dep baghalady әri búl әreketti AQSh jәne onyng odaqtastary tarapynan jasalghan arandatu dep mәlimdedi. Britaniya, Saud Arabiyasy bastaghan keybir elder búl iske Tegeran kinәli dese, Europa odaghy, onyng ishinde Germaniya, sonday-aq Resey, Qytay ony kinәlaugha dәlelderding jetkiliksiz ekenin algha tartyp, mәn-jaydy әli de zerdeley týsu kerek degen pikir bildirdi. Tankerlerge ie elder Irangha eshqanday aiyp taqpady. Keybir sarapshylar tankerlerge shabuyl jasaluyna saqtandyru qorlarynan aqsha óndirip alu ýshin tankerler iyelerining ózderi de mýddeli edi degen oy bildirdi. Múnday әreket halyqaralyq saudada kezdesip túrady.

Sonymen qatar, osy oqighagha AQSh-tyng tikeley qatysy bar boluy mýmkin degen pikirler de boy kórsetude. Búl sózding jany joq deuge bolmaydy. Tegeran ses kórsetkendey, Hormuz búghazy jabylghan jaghdayda múnay baghasy sharyqtay týsedi. Búl qatparly múnay eksporttaytyn AQSh ýshin qolayly jaghday bolghandyqtan, Aqýy týrli tәsildermen IIYR-di búghazdy jabugha iytermelegisi keledi. AQSh o bastan osy ónirde Izraili mýddesi túrghysynan әreket etetini eshkimge jasyryn emes. Irannyng ýlken kýshke ie boluy eng aldymen Izraili mýddesine kereghar. Múnyn, halyqaralyq qatynastar salasyndaghy taldaushylardyng pikirinshe, birqatar sebepteri bar. Birinshiden, Iran – Islam Respublikasy. Izraili Palestinada túrghyndardy jappay qyrghyngha úshyratyp, ýlken qylmys jasap otyr dep Tegerannyng ashyq týrde dýrkin-dýrkin aiyptauy dýniyejýzinde Izrailiding bedeline núsqan keltiredi. Irandyq sarapshylardyng payymdauynsha, izraildyqtar búghan qarsy islamdy jaman atty kórsetu bastamasyn qolgha alghan. Islam atauymen terroristik ILIYM-ning (DAIYSh) qúryluy, onyng serkesi yahudy boluy, Siriyadaghy jaraly ILIM sodyrlaryna Izraildyng kómektesui, tipti qaru-jaraqpen qamtamasyz etui, kýmәndi topqa qarsy jýrgizilgen soghysqa alpauyt elder aralasqanyna qaramay, úzaqqa sozyluy, toz-tozy shyqqan terrorister serkelerining qolgha týspeui, jazalanbauy siyaqty «kýmәn tudyratyn» derekter IIR BAQ-tarynda jiyi-jii aitylady. Ekinshiden, kishkentay memleketting ónirde ýstemdikke qol jetkizui ýshin iri músylman elderining jik-jikke bólinip, qyrqysqany «tiyimdi». Múnday jospar nәtiyjesiz de emes. Búl rette, resmy Tegeran Er-Riyadty Teli-Aviv mýddesin kózdeydi dep jii aiyptaydy. Ýshinshiden, Palestinany tolyqqandy memleket etip qúrugha jol bermeu jóninde Izrailidyng mýddesi bar. Osy túrghyda, Livandaghy Iran qoldau kórsetip kele jatqan «Hezbolla» qozghalysy - Izrailidyng basty jaularynyng biri. Tórtinshiden, Irannyng ónirdegi strategiyalyq odaqtasy – Siriyanyng qazirgi rejiymin qúlatu jónindegi AQSh bastaghan Batys elderining talpynysy sәtsiz ayaqtalghany mәlim. Esesine Mәskeumen odaqtasyp soghysqa qatysqan Iran mәrtebesi birshama kóterile týsti. Búl da – Siriyanyng irgesindegi Izrailigha tiyimsiz jaghday.

Qalay bolghanda da, tankerlerge jasalghan shabuyl Aqýy ýshin óz «jemisin» berdi dep aitugha bolady. Oqigha saldarynan tankerlerdi saqtandyru baghasy artty. Nәtiyjesinde múnay baghasy edәuir kóterildi.

Shiyelenisti qoldan jasay otyryp әri ony syltauratyp, AQSh ónirde әskery kýshterin nyghaytugha múrsat alady. Búl óz kezeginde mynaday birqatar mýmkindikter men basymdyqtargha jol ashady:

1. Ónirdegi jaghdaydy baqylaugha alady. Búl – óz mýddelerine say oqighany týrli ssenariyler boyynsha qalauynsha ózgerte alady degen sóz.

2. Ónirdegi múnay tasymalyna baqylau jasaydy. Jasyryn múnay saudasyna kedergi keltiredi. Búl múnay eksportyna tәueldi әri AQSh sanksiyalaryn ainalyp ótkisi keletin Iran ekonomikasyna әjepteuir soqqy bolmaq.

3. Ónirdegi jaghdaydyng ushyghuyna oray arab elderi AQSh qaruyn satyp alugha mýddeli bolady әri amerikalyq әskery mamandargha súranys artady. Osylaysha, Vashington ónirdegi qaru-jaraq naryghyn óz qolyna alyp, Resey, Qytay siyaqty bәsekelesterining aldyn oraydy.

Endi jahan júrshylyghy Amerika Irangha qarsy soghysty bastay ma dep alandap otyr. Osy orayda, Irak, Oman siyaqty elder Vashington men Tegeran arasynda mediatorlyq qyzmet atqarugha tyrysuda. Sonymen birge, ótken aptada Japoniyanyng Premier-ministri S.Abe Tegerangha sapary kezinde AQSh pen IIYR-ding kelissóz jýrgizui ýshin araaghayyndyq jasaugha әzir ekenin jetkizdi. IIR liyderi búghan ynghay tanytpady. S.Abemen kezdesu barysynda IIR Preziydenti H.Ruhany Irannyng eshbir elge soghys bastamaytynyn, eger basqa bir memleket Irangha soqtyqsa, tiyisinshe toytarys beretinin aitty. Osy tústa AQSh basshylyghy da Irangha qarsy soghys ashpaytynyn mәlimdedi.

Shyndyghynda da, AQSh ýshin dәl qazir Irangha qarsy soghys otyn tútatu birneshe sebepter boyynsha tiyimsiz. Birinshiden, Tayau Shyghysta soghys boluy Palestina-Izraili qatynasyndaghy birshama mәselelerding Teli-Aviv mýddesi túrghysynan sheshiluin qiyndatady. Ekinshiden, AQSh-tyng ónirdegi әskery kýshteri jәne strategiyalyq odaqtastary Iran zymyrandary jetetin aimaqtarda ornalasqan. Shabuyl bolghan jaghdayda olardy qorghaudy tolyqtay qamtamasyz etu әzirshe mýmkin bolmaydy. Ýshinshiden, Iran әskery quaty jaghynan AQSh-tan әldeqayda kem týsse de, shabuylgha toytarys beruge aitarlyqtay qauqary bar el dep baghalanuda. Tipti, soghys el birligin arttyratyn faktorgha ainalyp, keri әserge alyp kelui yqtimal. IIYR-ge shabuyl jasalghan jaghdayda, el rejiymin auystyrugha halyqtyng qoldau kórsetetinine Vashingtonnyng tap qazir kózi anyq jetpey otyr. Osyghan qaramastan, «qyzuqandy» D.Tramptan kez kelgen әreketti kýtuge bolatynyn joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Sarapshylardyng payymdauynsha, qazir AQSh Preziydenti ainalasynda islamgha, onyng ishinde Irangha qarsy top (Preziydent kenesshisi Dj.Bolton, Ortalyq barlau basqarmasynyng Iran jónindegi operativtik ortalyghynyng basshysy M.D'Andrea jәne t.b.) jinalghan. Olar qaytkende de Islam Respublikasyna keshiktirmey soghys bastaugha qúshtar. Biraq, búl is tynghylyqty dayyndyqty qajet etedi. Sebebi, Qúrama Shtattar dәl qazir shabuyl jasaghan jaghdayda, Irannyng qarymta shabuylynan AQSh-tyng ónirdegi әskery bazalary men odaqtastary zardap sheger edi. Osy orayda, beyresmy derekter boyynsha, amerikalyqtar Irannyng kompiuterlik qorghanys jýiesin isten shygharu maqsatynda kiybershabuyl jasau mýmkindigin qarastyruda.

AQSh Irannyng qityghyna tii ýshin týrli amaldargha barudan tayynbaytynyn bayqatuda. AQSh-pen kelissózge otyryp, araqatynas mәselelerin talqylaugha Irannyng liyderi A.Hameneiyding sheshimin kýtu qajet bolady. Ázirge onday ynghay bayqalmay otyr.

Qazirshe AQSh qysym arqyly Soltýstik Koreya kósemin kelissózge keluge iytermelegendey tәsildi Tegerangha da qoldanghysy keledi. Alayda, «sózinde túrmaytyn» AQSh-pen kelissóz jýrgizbeytinin mәlimdegen IIR Soltýstik Koreyagha qaraghanda saq әri sauatty sayasat jýrgizip otyr.

Búdan basqa, Vashington týrli qysym jasau arqyly Tegerandy JQBIJ-den shyghugha iytermeleydi. Iran atalghan sharttan shyqqan jaghdayda, ony «óz mindettemelerin oryndamady, yadrolyq qaru jasaugha niyetti» degen aiyppen ózge de qysym sharalaryn qoldanugha keng mýmkindik tuady.

Osy rette, IIR shart shenberinen shyghatyn alghashqy qadamyn jasay bastady. 18 mausymda IIR Atom quaty úiymynyng ókili B.Kamalvandy 27 mausymda el aumaghyndaghy bayytylghan uran qoryn 300 kg.-gha arttyryp, shart shekteulerinen shyghatynyn mәlimdedi. Ol eger shart taraptary (Fransiya, Britaniya, Germaniya) amerikalyq sanksiyalardy oryndaudan bas tartsa, óz mindettemelerin oryndaugha oraluy mýmkin ekenin joqqa shygharmady. Búdan alda taraptar aldynda orasan zor auqymdy diplomatiyalyq kelissózder túrghanyn andaymyz. EO-nyng dәl osy baghytta tәuelsiz sayasat jýrgizui ekitalay ekenin eskersek, kóp jaghday AQSh-qa baylanysty bolmaq. Al, AQSh qysym shenberin barynsha taryltudy qalaydy.

Amerikadaghy 2020 jylghy saylaudan keyin Tramptyng biylikten ketui qazirgi qalyptasqan tyghyryqtan shyghugha jol ashady degen boljam bar. Búl endi osy alpauyt elding tizginin qanday sayasatker ústaytynyna baylanysty bolmaq. Áytpese, eger D.Tramp qaytadan preziydent bolyp qalsa nemese sol tiptegi shalt qimyl jasaudan tayynbaytyn sayasatkerlerding biri biylikke kelse, onda Tayau Shyghystaghy AQSh pen IIR arasyndaghy teketires úzaqqa sozyluy mýmkin dep boljam jasaugha bolady. Búl rette, AQSh Irangha qysymyn kýsheytu arqyly sayasiy-әleumettik jaghdaydyng nasharlauynan tuyndaytyn ishki tolqulargha iyek artady. Keybir sarapshylar Iran biyligining ishki qarsylastary (olar әr jyldary jappay sheru úiymdastyru arqyly ózderining bar ekenin kórsetti) qazirgi jaghdaydy paydalanyp, jeniske jetken jaghdayda ónirding órkendeui ýshin jana mýmkindik ashylady degen pikir bildirude.

Degenmen, Orta Aziya elderi, sonyng ishinde Qazaqstan qúrlyq ortasynda ornalasqan óz aumaghy ýshin ashyq múhittaghy halyqaralyq sauda jolyna shyghatyn eng jaqyn baghyt retinde qalyp otyrghan Iran men onyng tóniregindegi ahualdyng túraqty boluyna әrqashan mýddeli ekendigi kәmil.

Dәuirbek Dýisebay, shyghystanushy

Abai.kz