Ardaq Núrghazyúly. AQSh Aughanstannan nege ketedi?
Álemning sayasat sahnasynyng keyipkerleri jii ózgerip túrady. Alayda, sol kýn sayyn ózgerip túratyn sahnada ózgermeytin túraqty oiynshylar da bar. Songhy shiyrek ghasyrdaghy sonday oiynshynyng biri - Aughanstan. Arghy tarihyn aitpaghanda, búl el keshe ghana Kenes odaghyn tasqa sýrindirgen bolatyn. Aughandar onymen tynghan joq. AQSh bastaghan Batys elderining jahandyq sayasatyna ashyq qarsy shyqty, halyqaralyq terorizmning taban tirer tiyanaghyna ainaldy. Sodan Batys elderi 2001 jyly búl elge jarty ghasyr boyynda osy zamanghy soghysqa arnayy dayyndap kelgen NATO-nyng (soltýstik atllantikalyq shartty úiym) bar kýshimen basa-kóktep kirdi. Biraq, aughandar búghan da tizesin býkken joq. NATO men Aughanstan arasyndaghy on jylgha sozylghan soghystyng bir kezeni ayaqtalu aldynda túr. Búl soghys batystyqtardyng jenilisimen ayaqtalatyn týri bar. AQSh preziydenti B.Obamanyng songhy mәlimdemesi boyynsha NATO jasaqtary 2014 jyly Aughanstannan tolyq shygharylady. Sonymen bir uaqytta Aughanystannyng qazirgi preziydentti Hamid Karzay tәlibterding (tәlibannyn) basshysy molla Omardy aldaghy kezekti Aughanstan preziydenitigine kandidat retinde saylaugha týsuge shaqyratyny turaly tosyn mәlimdeme jasady. Búl dýnie ózgergenimen Aughanstannyng ózgermegenin, kórsetse kerek. Qala berdi, Orta Aziya 2001 jyldan búrynghy kezenge qayta bastan bet kelui mýmkin degendi bildiredi: Aughanstan biyligine 2014 jyly tәlibter qayta kelui mýmkin.
Álemning sayasat sahnasynyng keyipkerleri jii ózgerip túrady. Alayda, sol kýn sayyn ózgerip túratyn sahnada ózgermeytin túraqty oiynshylar da bar. Songhy shiyrek ghasyrdaghy sonday oiynshynyng biri - Aughanstan. Arghy tarihyn aitpaghanda, búl el keshe ghana Kenes odaghyn tasqa sýrindirgen bolatyn. Aughandar onymen tynghan joq. AQSh bastaghan Batys elderining jahandyq sayasatyna ashyq qarsy shyqty, halyqaralyq terorizmning taban tirer tiyanaghyna ainaldy. Sodan Batys elderi 2001 jyly búl elge jarty ghasyr boyynda osy zamanghy soghysqa arnayy dayyndap kelgen NATO-nyng (soltýstik atllantikalyq shartty úiym) bar kýshimen basa-kóktep kirdi. Biraq, aughandar búghan da tizesin býkken joq. NATO men Aughanstan arasyndaghy on jylgha sozylghan soghystyng bir kezeni ayaqtalu aldynda túr. Búl soghys batystyqtardyng jenilisimen ayaqtalatyn týri bar. AQSh preziydenti B.Obamanyng songhy mәlimdemesi boyynsha NATO jasaqtary 2014 jyly Aughanstannan tolyq shygharylady. Sonymen bir uaqytta Aughanystannyng qazirgi preziydentti Hamid Karzay tәlibterding (tәlibannyn) basshysy molla Omardy aldaghy kezekti Aughanstan preziydenitigine kandidat retinde saylaugha týsuge shaqyratyny turaly tosyn mәlimdeme jasady. Búl dýnie ózgergenimen Aughanstannyng ózgermegenin, kórsetse kerek. Qala berdi, Orta Aziya 2001 jyldan búrynghy kezenge qayta bastan bet kelui mýmkin degendi bildiredi: Aughanstan biyligine 2014 jyly tәlibter qayta kelui mýmkin. Búl shyndyqqa ainalyp jatsa, Orta Aziyada eski әri jana sayasat qaytalanady. 2001 jyly tәlibter Aughanstan biyligine qalay keldi, solay bastalghan ózgeristi júrt әli tolyq úmyta qoyghan joq. Tәlibter biylikke kelisimen ózderining iydeologiyasyn kórshi elderge importtay bastady. Sonyng saldarynan keshegi kenestik biylikting qúrsauynda bolghan elderde - Qyrghyzstan, Ózbekstan, Tәjikstanda dini-etyikalyq janjaldar oryn ala bastaldy. Onyng salqyny Qazaqstangha da tiydi. Búl janjaldardyng tasasynda tәlibterding túrghany eshkimge jasyryn emes edi. Tipti tәlibterding ózi de ony jasyrghan joq.
Tәlibter kim edi? Islam qúndylyqtarynyng qatang tәrtibine qúrylghan jauyngerlikti basty baghyt etip ústanatyn diny shәkirtterden túratyn úiym sayasat sahnasyna shyqqan kýnnen tartyp ózin qarudyng kýshimen diny qúndylyqtargha qúrylghan tәrtip ornatudy kókseytinin әigilegen úiym boldy. Tәlibter búl niyetin Aughanstan da ghana emes, ózge Orta Aziya elderinde de jýzege asyrugha mýddeli edi. 2001 jyly «Ál-qaida» terroristik úiymy Niu-Yorkte «11-qyrkýiek» shabuylyn úiymdastyrmaghanda, tәlibterding Orta Aziya elderimen aradaghy teke-tiresining ayaghy ne bolatynyn boljau qiyn bolatyn. «11-qyrkýiek» shabuylynan keyin, AQSh bastaghan Batys elderi «Ál-qaidanyn» izine týsti de, onyng arty NATO-nyng Aughanstangha basyp kiruimen tyndy. On jylgha jalghasqan soghys «Ál-Haidagha» soqqy berip qana qalghan joq, tәlibterdi de myqtap auyzdyqtady. Alayda, songhy janalyqtar tәlibterding qaytadan bas kóterui mýmkin ekenin kórsetip otyr. Ejelden kele jatqan aqiqat - halyq qarsy bolsa, biylik qashanda jer qúshpay qoymaydy. AQSh bastaghan Batys elderi Aughanstanda bir jaghynan soghys jýrgizip, ekinshi jaghynan aughan halqyn óz iydeologiyasyna tartugha baryn salyp kórdi. Biraq, onyng bәri birdey sәtti bola qoyghan joq. Aughan halqy batystyqtardy jaulaushy esebinde týsinuin ózgertken joq. AQSh bastaghan Batys elderi «Ál-qaida» terroristik úiymnyng jetekshisin jer jastandyrghan song jogharydaghy aqiqatty moyyndap, Aughanstannan sheginip shyghugha bekigen.
Búl túrghyda AQSh-tyng óz esebi bar. On jylgha sozylghan soghys әlemdegi birinshi alpauyt elding ekonomikasyna onay salmaq salghan joq. Osynau jyldarda ashyq emes aqparatqa negizdelgende AQSh aughan soghysyna 3 trlion AQSh dollaryn júmsaghany turaly aitylady. 2008 jyly tamyzda bastalghan ghalamdyq qarjy daghdarysynan keyin búnday basy artyq shyghyn onsyz da әupirimdep túrghan el ekonomikasyna jyghylghan ýstine júdyryq boldy. Býkil aughan halqyn qalqan etken tәlibtermen soghys búdan ary jalghasa berui әbden mýmkin, biraq, oghan ketetin mol qarjyny tabu qiynnyn-qiyny ekenin Aq ýiding qojayyndary anyq angharyp qaldy. Onyng ýstine songhy on jylda ghalamdyq sayasattyng kartasy ýlken ózgeriske úshyrap jatyr. Keshegi kenes odaghynyng elesindey bolyp ensesin qayta tiktey bastaghan Resey ózining әli de alpauyt el ekenin, Batystyng qas-qabaghy boyynsha jýrmeytinin dәleldey bastady. Odan qalsa, әlem ekonomikasynda ishki jalpy ónim qúny jaghynan Japoniyany artqa tastaghan Qytay AQSh-tan keyingi ekinshi oryngha jayghasty. Búl AQSh ekonomikalyq daghdarystan esi shyghyp jatqanda, Europa elderinde ekonomikalyq ósim tómendep bara jatqan jaghdayda oryn aldy. Búl múhittyng arjaghyndaghy alpauyt el ýshin tu syrtynan oilamaghan jau payda bolghanmen birdey edi. Búdan búryn AQSh-tyqtar býgingi Qytay siyaqty ózine ekonomikalyq jaqtan bәsekeles bola bastaghan japondardyng ózin ayaghan joq. Jarty ghasyrdan beri bir iydeologiyanyng tuy astynda kele jatsa da bәsekeles bolghan shaghynda bar aila-tәsildi qoldanyp, japondardy auyzdyqtap tynghan. Múnymen salystyrghanda ejelgi qarsylasynyng jóni tipti mýlde bólek. Ótken on jylda AQSh Orta Shyghysta, Aughanstanda ýlkendi-kishili soghys ashyp qarjysyn da, zeyin-zerdesin de tógip-shashyp jatqanda Shyghys Aziyada qytaylar tynysh qana batys ýlgisindegi naryqty tiyimdi iygerip, Dýniyejýzilik sauda úiymyna kirdi, shet elding qarjysyn, tehnikasyn sheber paydalanyp ekonomikalyq ósimin әr jyly on payyzdan asyryp otyrdy. Jalpy, Qytay ekonomikasynyng órkendeuine salystyrmaly túraqtylyqta bolghan el ishi sayasatymen qatar syrtqy sebepting de yqpaly boldy. Batys elderi músylman elderimen qaqtyghysyp jatqanda qytaylar búl teke-tiresti sheber paydalanyp, Parsy shyghanaghy múnayynyng paydasyn shash-etekten kórdi. Ortalyq Aziya múnayynan da ýles aldy. Qazaqstan - Qytay múnay qúbyrynyng arqasynda qytaylar jyl sayyn milliondaghan tonna shiyki múnaygha esh kedergisiz ie boldy. Búlar qaryshtap damyghan el ekonomikasy ýshin basty qozghaushy kýsh edi. Songhy resmy mәlimdemelerge qaraghanda, qytaylar Orta Aziyadan taghy bir múnay qúbyryn tartugha niyetti. Ol qúbyr Týrkimenstan men Ózbekstandy basyp ótip, Aughanstannyng soltýstigi arqyly Qytaygha tartyluy tiyis eken. Qytaydyng alyp-úshqan ekonomikalyq ósimi el quatyn kóterdi. Búl el gharysh salasyn iygerude keshegi Kenes odaghynyng ornyn basyp, orbitagha adam otyratyn әlem kemesin shyghardy. Búl salada AQSh-pen bәsekeles bolatynyn tanytty. Qytay әskery salasyn da myqtap damytudy qolgha alyp jatyr ( elding 2012 jylghy әskery mejesi 100 milliard AQSh dollaryna tura keledi. Biraq, batystyng jәne Qytaydyng tәuelsiz sarapshylar búl san 600 milliard shamasynda dep topshylap otyr). Áskery salagha qajetti barlaushy jәne basqarylmaly oq tasymalyndyq zymyrandardy nysanagha bastaytyn Jer serikterin gharyshqa kóptep shygharumen qatar teniz armiyasyn iri әskery kemelermen tolyqtyrdy. Ukrainadan satyp alghan iri úshaq tasymaldaghyshty qayta janartyp iske qosyp qana qoymay, sol negizde taghy da osynday iri úsaq tasyghyshtan 4 jasaudy qolgha aldy. Búl Qytaydyng teniz floty ashyq múhittargha shyghugha myqtap dayyndala bastady degen sóz. Al búl AQSh-tyng jalpy últtyq qauipsizdigine qater tóndiretini aitpasa da belgili jaghday. Osynyng bәrin qytaylar AQSh soghyspen ainalysyp jatqanda typ-tynysh otyryp qana jýzege asyrdy.
Ýstimizdegi jyly preziydent B.Obama AQSh halqyna jasaghan dәstýrli joldauynda elining tayau bolashaqtaghy taghdyryna qatysty qatang mәlimdeme jasady. Ol: «AQSh eshqashanda ekinshi oryngha syrghymaydy! Biz oghan jol bermeymiz!» dedi. Sonymen birge AQSh-tyng halqaralyq sayasatta búghan deyin Europagha den qoyyp kelgen baghytyna ózgeris engizip, Aziyany aldynghy oryngha qoyatynyn ashyq aitty. Osyghan say AQSh-tyng әlemdik әskery ornalasu kartasynda da ýlken ózgeris oryn alatyny aityldy. Endi AQSh-tyng 11 teniz qúrama flotyn 6 Aziya - Tynyq múhit aimaghyna shoghyrlanatyn bolady. Mine, osy alghyshart ayasynda AQSh bastaghan Batys elderi Aughanstandaghy soghysty mezgilinen búryn ayaqtap, búl aimaqtyng endigi qauipsizdigin Qytay men Reseyding moynyna iluge niyetti ekenin bildirip otyr. Endigi jerde biylikke tәlibter kelip jatsa, olarmen jogharydaghy eki el ainalysuy kerek. Búl atalghan eki elding endi ótken on jyldaghy Orta Aziyanyng qauipsizdigin syrttay tynysh baqylap, esesine sonyng paydasyn kórgen kýnnen birtindep airyla bastaghanyn anghartady. 2014 jyldan keyin Aughanstanda biylik basyna tәlibter qayta kelip jatsa, olardyng qytaygha da, orysqa da ong qabaqpen qaraytynyna eshkim kepildik bermeydi. AQSh-tyqtar ýshin búl ejelgi qarsylastarynyng ayaghyna túsau saludyng tiyimdi joly ekeni anyq. Ortalyq Aziyada tynyshsyzdyq bastalsa, ol diny asyra silteushilikpen tamyrlasyp jatatyny anyq, onyng sony irgeles qytaydyng úighyrlar túratyn Shynjang ólkesine de, qala berdi, Reseyding Qap tauy ólkesine de yqpal etui mýmkin. Ol kezde atalghan eki el jartylay bolsa da tynyshtyghynan airylatyny anyq. Al AQSh Orta Aziyadan mýldem ketkisi joq. Ol tek bir taban keri sheginip, bәsekelesterin algha shygharyp otyr.
Tayauda ghana Elbasy N.Nazarbaev Qazaqstannyng Reseymen birtútas әueqorghanys aimaghyna kirgenin jariya etti. Osymen bir uaqytta Ózbekstan Resey bas bolyp kele jatqan Újymdyq qauipsizdik úiymynan shyghatynyn mәlimdedi. Búl derekter Orta Aziya elderining alda kele jatqan oryn aluy mýmkin oqighalargha býginnen bastap dayyndala bastaghanyn anghartady. Qazaqstan Reseydi arqa tútsa, ózbekter Aughanstandaghy soghystan bas tartsa da, mýmkindiginshe osyndaghy ózge eldermen úshtasyp qala beru niyetindegi AQSh-pen jaqyndasugha mýddeli ekenin bayqatty. Osylaysha XXI ghasyrdyng alghashqy onjyldyghy ayaqtalghan tústa Orta Aziya elderi ishki-syrtqy sayasatta jana bir tolqyndy kýtip almaqshy.
«Abay-aqparat»