«Qytay ghajayybynan» Qazaqstan qanday sabaq aluy tiyis?
Biyl Qytay Halyq Respublikasynyng (QHR) tóraghasy Sy Szinipin alghash ret Qazaqstangha resmy sapar jasap, eki el arasyndaghy jan-jaqty әriptestikti damytugha baghyttalghan kelissózder jýrgizdi. Qazaqstan men QHR ózara sauda kólemin 2015 jyly 40 mlrd. AQSh dollaryna jetkizudi kózdep otyr. Onyng basym bóligin múnay-gaz saudasy qúramaq. Býgingi tanda eki jaqty qarym-qatynas qarqyndy damuda. Qazaqstandaghy QHR elshiligining sauda-ekonomikalyq mәseleler jónindegi kenesshisi Yan Sumini «Global Times» tilshisine bergen súhbatynda, eki el arasyndaghy sauda kólemi 2012 jyly 25,7 mlrd. AQSh dollaryna jetip, onyng ishinde qytaylyq eksport 11 mlrd., al, import – 14,7 mlrd. dollar bolghanyn aitty. Qytaydyng Qazaqstangha qúighan tikeley investisiyasy 20 mlrd. AQSh dollarynan asyp ketken, Qazaq eline QHR tarapynan berilgen týrli nesiyeleri 30 mlrd. AQSh dollarynan asqan, bizding elimizde 3000 taqau qytaylyq kәsiporyndar tirkelgen. Salystyru ýshin QHR Kommersiya ministrligining mәlimetine sýiensek, 2012 jyly Qytaydyng shetelderdegi tikeley investisiyalary 87,8 mlrd. AQSh dollaryn qúrady. Bayqap otyrghanymyzday, onyng shiyregine juyghy Qazaqstannyng ýlesinde. Búdan Qytaydyng Qazaqstanmen úzaq merzimdi yntymaqtastyq jasaugha niyetti ekeni anyq bayqalady. Oyanghan aidaharday, alyp Qytaydyng ekonomikasy songhy onjyldyqtarda eselep damyp, әlemdegi aldynghy oryngha shyqty.
Biyl Qytay Halyq Respublikasynyng (QHR) tóraghasy Sy Szinipin alghash ret Qazaqstangha resmy sapar jasap, eki el arasyndaghy jan-jaqty әriptestikti damytugha baghyttalghan kelissózder jýrgizdi. Qazaqstan men QHR ózara sauda kólemin 2015 jyly 40 mlrd. AQSh dollaryna jetkizudi kózdep otyr. Onyng basym bóligin múnay-gaz saudasy qúramaq. Býgingi tanda eki jaqty qarym-qatynas qarqyndy damuda. Qazaqstandaghy QHR elshiligining sauda-ekonomikalyq mәseleler jónindegi kenesshisi Yan Sumini «Global Times» tilshisine bergen súhbatynda, eki el arasyndaghy sauda kólemi 2012 jyly 25,7 mlrd. AQSh dollaryna jetip, onyng ishinde qytaylyq eksport 11 mlrd., al, import – 14,7 mlrd. dollar bolghanyn aitty. Qytaydyng Qazaqstangha qúighan tikeley investisiyasy 20 mlrd. AQSh dollarynan asyp ketken, Qazaq eline QHR tarapynan berilgen týrli nesiyeleri 30 mlrd. AQSh dollarynan asqan, bizding elimizde 3000 taqau qytaylyq kәsiporyndar tirkelgen. Salystyru ýshin QHR Kommersiya ministrligining mәlimetine sýiensek, 2012 jyly Qytaydyng shetelderdegi tikeley investisiyalary 87,8 mlrd. AQSh dollaryn qúrady. Bayqap otyrghanymyzday, onyng shiyregine juyghy Qazaqstannyng ýlesinde. Búdan Qytaydyng Qazaqstanmen úzaq merzimdi yntymaqtastyq jasaugha niyetti ekeni anyq bayqalady. Oyanghan aidaharday, alyp Qytaydyng ekonomikasy songhy onjyldyqtarda eselep damyp, әlemdegi aldynghy oryngha shyqty. Bes mynjyldyq tarihy, derbes órkeniyet sanalatyn bay mәdeniyeti, keng jerinde kóp sandy halqy bola túra, Qytay bir kezenderi aghylshyndyq otarlaudyng ezgisin, japondyq shapqynshylardyng tepkisin de kórdi. Batys mensinbegen, artta qalushy kedey el sanalghan Qytay býgingi tanda býkil әlemdi tandandyryp, «Qytay ghajayyby» degen damudyng ozyq ýlgisin kórsetip otyr. Múnday keremet jetistikke kórshiles Aspan asty eli qalay qol jetkizdi? Qytaylyq damudyng astarynda, sayasaty men memlekettik basqaru isinde qanday qúpiya syr jatyr? Qytay tәjiriybesinen qanday sabaqtar alugha bolady? Mine, osynday kókeykesti súraqtar býginde әrkimdi qyzyqtyrady.
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Álemdik ekonomikanyng tarihynda HH ghasyrdyng songhy shiyreginde búryn sondy bolmaghan damudyng tanghajayyp ýlgisi tirkeldi. Ol – Qytaydyng qarqyndy ekonomikalyq damuy nemese «Qytay ghajayyby». Bir qaraghanda, Qytaydyng qaryshtap damuynda negizgi oryn alatyn mәsele - ekonomikalyq әleuet siyaqty kórinedi. Al, shyn mәnisinde, Qytaydyng tabysqa jetuine kýshti yqpal etken - memleket basshylarynyng ómir shynayylyghymen astasyp jatqan strategiyalyq oilau qabileti bolatyn, yaghni, aldygha maqsat qoi men oghan naqty josparlanghan merzim ishinde qol jetkize bilui manyzdy ról atqardy. Olargha aitylghandy oryndau, josparlanghandy uaqytynda jýzege asyru tәn. «Qytay ghajayybynyn» bastauynda túrghan Den Syaopiyn «qytaylyq ereksheligi bar sosializm» ústanymymen sayasat sahnasyna shyqty. Ol ózine deyingi kompartiya tóraghasy Mao Szedunnan múragha qalghan «Ýlken sekiris», «Mәdeny tónkeris» zardaptaryn jongha kiristi: kedeylikke dushar bolyp, әlem elderinen artta qalghan, tereng әleumettik-sayasy daghdarystan tityqtaghan Aspan asty elin janasha damu jolyna saldy. Den Syaopin Qytaydyng jýzege asyrghaly otyrghan ekonomikalyq reformasynyng tabystylyghy sayasy jýiening janghyruyna tәueldi degen qaghidany basshylyqqa aldy. Sayasy jýieni reformalamay jatyp, ekonomikalyq qúrylymdy ózgertu mýmkin emestigi ghylymy jәne iydeologiyalyq túrghyda tújyrymdaldy. Osylaysha, ekonomikalyq reformalar bastau alghan 1978 jyldan bastap Qytaydyng ishki jalpy ónimining (IJÓ) ósimi jylyna 10 % qúrap otyr (tek eki jyly ghana - 1989 jәne 1990 jyldary IJÓ ósimi 4 % bolghan, sebebi: Tyanianimeni oqighasynan song AQSh, Japoniya jәne Europa elderi Qytaygha qarsy týrli ekonomikalyq sanksiyalar qoldanyp, damuyn tejegen). Qytaylyq ekonomikalyq reformalardyng negizinde basty eki ústanym jatty:
Birinshi, barlyq reformalar túrylyqtyng halyqtyng barynsha basym bóligining mýddesine say jýrgizilui tiyis, jәne halyq odan shynayy payda tabuy qajet;
Ekinshi, halyq ýshin reformanyng baghasy auyrtpalyq әkelmeui kerek.
Den Syaopin Qytaydy agrarly-industriyalyq el retinde damytudy maqsat etti. Sondyqtan, el ekonomikasyn qorghanys ónerkәsibi, auyl sharuashylyghy, ghylym jәne ónerkәsip dep negizgi tórt sektorgha bólip janghyrtu qolgha alyndy. Ásirese, búqara halyqtyng basym bóligi auyldyq jerlerde túratynyn eskere otyryp, auyl sharuashylyghyn qúldyratpay reformalaugha basa nazar audaryldy. Reformanyng auyldan bastaluy sol kezendegi uaqyt talaby bolatyn. Óitkeni, ol kezende qytaylyqtardyng 80 % auyldyq jerlerde túratyn edi. Den Syaopin «Qytaydyng tynyshtyghy, ekonomikanyng damuy eng aldymen auyldyng damuyna, sharualardyng әl-auqaty artuyna tәueldi» dedi. Auyl sharuashylyghynda búryn qalyptasqan «halyq kommunalarynyn» ornyn otbasylyq enbekke negizdelgen sharuashylyqtar basyp, olar josparly-naryqtyq ústanymgha kóshti. Iri jer iyelenushi latifundisterding tuyndauy men enbekti qanauyna tosqauyl qoyylyp, eginshi-malshylardyng jerdi tendey iyelenui men paydalanuy oilastyryldy. Sharualardyng barlyghy derlik auyl sharuashylyq ónimderin erkin óndiru qúqyghyna ie boldy. Memlekettik ónim dayyndau jýiesi taratylyp, agronomiyalyq ónimderge bagha erkin bosatyldy, barynsha jenildetilgen salyq jýiesi engizildi. Memleketting belgilegen josparynan artyq óndirilgen ónim sharualardyng iygiligine ainaldy. Múnyng barlyghy sharualardy enbektenuge, jerdi tynaytu men kýtuge, asyl túqymdandyru arqyly artyq ónim alugha yntalandyrdy. Auyldyq jerlerdegi enbekkerlerding ómir sapasy jogharylap, auyl sharuashylyghy tútasymen modernizasiyagha úshyrady. Eng bastysy – Qytay qysqa merzim ishinde azyq-týlik qauipsizdigine qol jetkizip, kóp sandy halqynyng toya tamaqtanuyn qamtamasyz ete aldy. Qytaylyq sharualardyng múnday jetistikke qol jetkizui óz kezeginde auyl sharuashylyq ónimderin eksportqa shygharugha mýmkindik berdi. Al, Qytaymen kórshiles kenestik respublikalarda jýrgen reformalar bolsa halyq sharuashylyghynyng damuyna emes, kerisinshe, keshendi qojyrap-tozugha әkelip soqty. KSRO-da jýrgen gorbachevtyq «qayta qúrular» jogharydan beriletin núsqaular týrinde jýrgizilse, qytaylyq reformalau tómengi dengeylerdegi bastamalardy jogharydaghylardyng qoldauymen jýzege asty. Ekonomikadaghy iydeologiyanyng róli men oghan biylikting qol súghuy býkil qytaylyq auqymda barynsha tómendetildi. Yaghni, el auqymynda jýrgizilgen reformalardyng deni «aziyalyq ekonomikalyq jolbarystardyn» ýlgisine negizdeldi.
1980 jyldyng 20 qazanynda Qytay Kommunistik partiyasy (QKP) Ortalyq komiyteti arnayy sheshim qabyldap, resmy týrde әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jýieni reformalaugha kóshti. Sóitip, qytaylyq sosialistik ekonomika – «mazmúnynda josparlau elementi bar tauarly ekonomika» dep anyqtaldy. Búl túrghyda Den Syaopiyn: «Nege osy naryq turaly sóz bolsa, birden kapitalizm turaly әngime qozghalady da, josparlau dese – sosializm deymiz? Josparlau men naryq – tәsilder. Eger búl tәsil óndirgish kýshterdi damytu ýshin paydaly bolsa, nege ony qoldanbasqa» - degen edi. Búl ústanym ózining dúrystyghyn dәleldep, qarqyndy ekonomikalyq damugha serpin berdi. Sonymen qatar, Den Syaopin qytaylyq damu strategiyasynyng ýsh qadamyn aiqyndady: birinshi qadam – halyqtyng qarny toq, kiyimi býtin bolatynday dengeyge qol jetkizu; ekinshisi – HH ghasyrdyng sonynda IJÓ tórt esege ósiru; ýshinshisi – jana ghasyrdyng 30-50 jyly ishinde ortasha damyghan elderding dengeyine qol jetkizu. Osylaysha, Qytay birte-birte bay, myqty, demokratiyalyq jәne órkeniyetti sosialistik elge ainalady degen úzaq merzimdi jospar jasaldy. Osy jerde aita keterlik jәit, IJÓ 2000 jyly tórt esege - 2800 mlrd. yuanigha ósiru josparyn Qytay 1994 jyly 2905,4 mlrd. yuani kórsetkishpen asyra oryndap, merziminen búryn qol jetkizdi. Jalpy, Den Syaopin pragmatik sayasatker retinde tanymal ekenin aita ketu qajet, onyng aitqan myna bir sózi býkil әlemge tanymal: «Aq mysyq pa, qara mysyq pa manyzdy emes, eger ol tyshqan ústay alatyn bolsa, onda ol jaqsy mysyq». Sol siyaqty, sosializm be, naryq pa, bәribir, eng bastysy – elding damuyna iygi yqpal etse bolghany. Osylaysha, әlemde tendesi joq «bir el, eki týrli jýie» qalyptasty.
1984 jyldyng qazan aiynan bastap qytaylyq ekonomikalyq janghyrudyng ekinshi kezeni – qalalardaghy ekonomikalyq jýielerdi reformalau bastaldy. Tórt iri qala - Shenichjeni, Chjuhay, Syamyni, Shanitou – arnayy ekonomikalyq aimaqtar bolyp jariyalanyp, tómengi salyq rejiymindegi erkin naryqqa kóshti. Mysaly, Shenichjeni osydan 30 jyl búryn Gonkongqa jaqyn ornalasqan teniz jaghasyndaghy shaghyn ghana balyqshylardyng qalasy bolsa, qazir ol 10 million túrghyny bar iri qalagha ainalghan Ontýstik Qytaydyng ekonomikalyq ortalyghy sanalady. Sonymen qatar, shaghyn biznes pen jenil ónerkәsipke, túrmystyq tehnikalar men mashina jasaugha barynsha qoldau jasaldy. Biylik tarapynan biznes ókilderine kedergi jasaugha tolyq tosqauyl qoyyldy. Kerisinshe, jergilikti biylik ókilderi ózderining aimaghynda ashylghan shaghyn-orta biznes ókilderi men kәsiporyndargha barlyq qolayly jaghdaylar jasady. Nesie sayasaty da memleketting qatang qadaghalauyna alyndy. Mysaly, banktik nesiyeni eng kóp degende 4-5 % syiaqymen beru arqyly qarjy sektory da әleumettik әdilettilikti saqtay otyryp, Qytaydyng ýilesimdi ekonomikalyq damuyna óz ýlesin qosty. Búl ýrdis әli kýnge deyin jalghasuda.
Den Syaopin 1985 jyly naryqtyq sosializmning bastauynda túryp mynaday qaghidany qytaylyq qoghamda nyqtap bekitti: «Qúrlyqtyq Qytay sosialistik jýieni qoldaytyn bolady jәne jalghan jolgha – kapitalistik jolgha búrylyp ketpeydi. Sosializm men kapitalizmdi bir-birinen aiyratyn erekshilikterding biri – sosializm jalpy gýldenudi bildiredi, halyqtyng tabys tabu boyynsha bay-kedey bolyp polyargha bólinip, jikteluine jol bermeydi. Jasalghan baylyq aldymen memleketke tiyesili, sosyn baryp adamdargha jetedi; sondyqtan da, jana burjuaziyanyng joq jerden tuyndauy mýmkin emes. Memleketke týsken payda adamdardyng әl-auqatyn jaqsartugha júmsalady, az bóligi últtyq qorghanysty nyghaytugha, al, qalghan bóligi – ekonomikany damytugha, bilim beru men ghylymgha, halyqtyng ómir sýru sapasy men mәdeny órleu dengeylerin kóteruge baghyttalady».
1988 jyldyng ekinshi jartysynan bastap qytaylyq ghalymdar «sosialistik tauarly ekonomikanyn» ornyna «sosialistik naryqtyq ekonomika» úghymyn qoldanudy úsyndy. «Sosialistik naryqtyq ekonomika» jaghdayynda memleket ekonomikany makroekonomikalyq qúraldar arqyly basqaryp, әkimshilik yqpal etudi barynsha tejep, sonyng arqasynda, Qytaydyng birtútas últtyq naryghynyng qúryluyna iygi yqpal etti. Degenmen, Qytay keremetining negizin salghan Den Syaopin 1989 jyly resmy týrde barlyq lauazymynan óz erkimen bas tartudy úighardy. Oghan bir jaghynan, 1989 jylghy 15 sәuir men 4 shilde aralyghynda KSRO-daghy qayta qúrular siyaqty Qytaydaghy sayasy jýieni týbegeyli reformalaudy kóksegen studentterding Tyanianimeni alanynda úiymdastyryp, ayaghy qantógiske úlasqan narazylyq bas kóteruleri sebepshi boldy. 1992 jyldan bastap «joldas Den» sayasattan ketti, biraq, ómirining sonyna deyin Qytaydyng ruhany kóshbasshysy bolyp qaldy. Den Syaopin Qytay sayasatynda búryn dәstýrge ainalghan óle-ólgenshe biylik basynan ketpeu әdetine tosqauyl qoyyp, ózinen keyingi biyleushilerge ýlgili ónege kórsetip, partiyalyq biylik almasuynyng ontayly jolyn salyp berdi. Ómirlik lauazymdylyqty kýshinen qaldyryp, memleket basshysyn taqqa eki kezekten artyq otyrmaytyn etip belgilep ketti. Yaghni, eki besjyldyq jospardy jýzege asyryp, on jyl eldi biylegen lauazymdy túlgha ózinen keyin izbasar dayyndap, erikti týrde biylikti «qoldan qolgha» ótkizui tiyis. Sonymen qatar, qyzmet salalarynda zeynetkerlik jasqa jetkenderding demalysqa ketuleri qatang baqylaugha alynyp, qart kadrlardyng jastargha oryn beruine, otyz ben qyryq jas aralyghyndaghy qabiletti jastardyng jappay jauapty qyzmetke ósuine mýmkindik jasaldy.
1989 jyly QKP tóraghalyghyna uaqytsha kelgendey bolghan Szyan Szemini 1993 jyly QHR tóraghasy boldy. Ol Den Syaopin bastaghan reformalardy odan әri jalghastyrdy. 1993 jyly Qytaydyng IJÓ ósimi 10% emes, tipten, 13% deyin artyp ketti. Múnday jәitke QHR ýkimeti qatty alandaushylyq bildirdi, óitkeni, ekonomikanyng qatty qarqynmen damuy týrli jaghymsyz zardaptargha әkeletin qaterli qúbylys sanalady. Qytay «pomo jiynjiy», yaghniy, «kóbik ekonomikalyq damudyn» qaupinen saqtanuda bay kórshisi - Japoniyanyng tәjiriybesine sýiendi.
Búl kezenge tәn erekshelik – damuy artta qalghan Batys Qytaydy jetildiru jәne qalypty damudaghy Shyghys-soltýstiktegi kóne auyr ónerkәsip bazasyn odan әri janghyrtu sayasaty boldy. «Siyy óniri», yaghni, Batys Qytay provinsiyalary postkenestik kenistik pen Europagha shyghatyn tranzittik dәliz qyzmetin atqaruyna qajetti barlyq infraqúrylymdyq qamtamasyz etu isi jýzege asyryldy. Al, shyghys-soltýsik aimaqtaghy ekonomikanyng shynayy sektoryna sheteldik investisiya men tehnologiyany tartu qatar jýrgizildi. Óte qolayly әri jenil salyq-nesie sayasaty biylik tarapynan ekonomikany damytugha qosymsha kómek berip, iygi yqpalyn tiygizdi.
Szyan Szeminining biylik basyna kelgen kezeni Qytaydyng ayaghyna túryp, әlemdik naryqtardy jaulaugha niyettengen kezenimen túspa-tús keldi. Onyng basshylyghymen Qytay Dýniyejýzilik sauda úiymyna kirdi, ekonomikalyq jәne әskery әleuetin arttyrdy, Aziya-Tynyq múhity aimaghyndaghy kóshbasshygha ainaldy, Shanhay qalasynda ASEAN sammiytin ótkizdi, 2008 jyly Pekin olimpiadasyn ótkizdi. Sport - elding abyroyy men halyqaralyq imidji ghana emes, sau da salamatty ómirding kepili dep týsingen Qytay sportqa búrynghydan da kýshti kónil bóle bastady. Szyan Szemini «ýshtik ókildik» teoriyasyn úsynyp, ony QKP partiyalyq baghdarlamagha ainaldyrdy. «Ýshtik ókildiktin» mәni mynada: birinshiden, partiya qytaylyq aldynghy qatarly óndirgish kýshterding damuyna baghyttalghan talaptargha; ekinshiden, partiya Qytaydyng mәdeniyetin ozyq etetin progressivtik baghyttargha; ýshinshiden, kompartiya qytay halqynyng san týrli qabattarynyng mýddelerine ókildik etedi. «Ýshtik ókildik» iydeyasyn QKP marksizma-leninizmning iydeyalarymen, Mao Szedunnyng ústanymdarymen, Den Syaopinning teoriyalarymen qatar úzaq merzim boyyna ústanady. «Ýshtik ókildik» júmysshy-sharualar men intelliygensiyanyng sayasy qúqyqtaryn tenestirip qana qoymay, jeke kәsipkerlerge de partiya esigin aiqara ashty. Szyan Szemini túsynda qolgha alynghan taghy bir jauapty mindet, "syaokan" qoghamyn, yaghni, orta dәulettiler qoghamyn qúru boldy. QKP XVI sezi "syaokan" qoghamyna qol jetkizu arqyly qytaylyqtardyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy tabys dengeyin ortasha damyghan elderding dengeyine jetkizudi kózdeydi. Tәuelsiz sarapshylardyng mәlimeti boyynsha, qazir búl kórsetkish 26959 yuandy nemese 4 292 AQSh dollaryna teng (bir AQSh doll.- 6,28 yuani). Qytayda 1,5 mlrd. taqau halyq bar ekenin eskersek, býkil elding tabysyn qossaq, qyruar qarjy bolmaq. Al, Qytaydyng Últtyq statistikalyq burosynyng kórsetuinshe, IJÓ $7,3 trln., jan basyna shaqqandaghy tabys $5,5 myn. Ázirge, QHR azamaty tabys dengeyi boyynsha әlemde 101 orynda túr. Orta dәulettilerding "syaokan" qoghamy tek tabys tabudy ghana emes, jan-jaqty damudy maqsat tútady: sayasi, ekonomikalyq, mәdeny t.b.
Sayasy dәstýrdi ústana otyryp, Szyan Szemini 2002-2005 jyldar aralyghynda QKP OK Bas hatshylyghyn, respublika tóraghalyghyn, QKP Ortalyq әskery kenes tóraghalyghyn Hu Szinitaogha amanat etti. Qytay aimaqtarynyng hal-ahualymen etene tanys bolsa da, Hu el aralap, qarapayym enbekkerlerding tynys-tirshiligin óz kózimen kórgendi qalaytyn. Ol qarapayym ómir sýrudi nasihattap qana qoymay, ózi ýlgi kórsetuge tyrysty. Júmysqa velosiypedpen baryp, ózine deyin dәstýrge ainalghan memlekettik dәrejedegi sәn-saltanattardyng sanyn kýrt qysqartty. Chinovnikterding memleketti qyzmetti paydalanyp, týrli is-sharalargha budjet qarjysyn ysyrap etip júmsauyna tiym saldy. Memleket basshysynyng qarapayymdylyghy men qayyrymdylyghyn bir jaghynan, qytaylyq halyqtyng kedey bóligi qatty qoldasa, ekinshi jaghynan, múnday ústanym kedeyler men baylar arasyndaghy ómir dengeyining alshaqtyghyn azaytty. Ol sonymen qatar, teniz jaghalauyndaghy kýshti damyghan aimaqtardyng ishki jәne batys aimaqtargha kómektesu sayasatyn jýrgizip, qytaylyq qoghamnyng ýilesimdi damuyna kýsh saldy. «Ýilesimdi damu», nemese ghylymy damu sayasaty – Batys jәne Shyghys Qytay, auyl men qala, kedey men bay, teniz jaghalauy men qúrlyq ishindegi aimaqtar arasyndaghy tensizdikterdi barynsha azaytugha baghyttaldy. Búl baghytta Qytay ýkimeti ayanghan joq, әsirese, auyl-aymaqtargha barynsha qolayly jaghdaylar jasaldy: auyl sharuashylyghymen ainalysatyn sharualargha 5-10 myng AQSh dollary aralyghyndaghy nesie eshbir payyzsyz 2 jylgha berildi. Búl iygi bastama da әli kýnge deyin ózining jalghasyn tabuda.
Hu Szinitao partiya ishindegi tәrtipke de qatang qarady: partiya mýsheleri iydeologiyalyq materialdardy zerdeleuge, basshylyqqa moyynúsynuyn jazbasha kuәlendiruge mindetti boldy. Hu túsynda QKP ishinde eki iydeologiyalyq qanat tuyndady. «Onshyldar» qoghamnyng ashyqtyghyn, bank jýiesi men jeke menshikting jedeldetilgen reformasyn úsynsa, «solshyldar» reformalardy qysqartudy, shetelderding yqpalyn azaytudy, baylyqty qayta bóludi, kedey sharua qabattaryn subsidiyalaudy ansady. Ol partiya ishinde payda bolghan «onshyl» jәne «solshyl» baghyttardy bólip-jarmay, ekeuine de qoldau bildirip, sayasy kýshterding tepe-tendigin taba bildi. Yaghni, Hu Szinitao ishki sayasy baghytty eki tarmaqta jýrgizdi: ekonomikada reformany jalghastyru jәne QKP qoghamdyq saladaghy dәstýrli sayasatyn saqtau. Ekonomikalyq liyberaldanu qatang qoghamdyq baqylaumen jýrude, onyng ishinde, sybaylas jemqorlyqpen kýresu kýn tәrtibinen týspeytin ótkir mәselege ainalghan. Kompartiyanyng biyligine qauip tóndiretin barlyq faktorlar shektelip, senzuralandy. Ásirese, internet arqyly aqparat taratu qatang baqylaugha alyndy. Sonymen qatar, Hu Szinitao Qytaydyng ishki birligin saqtau jolynda biraz ter tóguine tura keldi. Onyng biylik basyna kelgen jyldary Tayvani, Tiybet, Shynjan-Úighyr mәseleleri ózekti boldy. Osynyng nәtiyjesinde, 2005 jyly 14 nauryzda «Memleketti bóluge qarsy túru turaly» arnayy zang Qytayda kýshine endi. Hu Szinitao túsynda Qytay әlemdegi ekonomikalyq kýshti derjava mәrtebesin nyghaytty. 2011 jyly IJÓ kólemi 5,8 trillion dollar qúraghan QHR Japoniyany basyp ozyp, AQSh-tan keyingi ekinshi oryngha shyqty. Shapshang temir joldarynyng úzaqtyghy jóninen әlemdegi birinshi oryn iyelenip, Afrika qúrlyghyndaghy eng iri investorgha ainaldy.
Hu Szinitao kezenine tәn taghy bir erekshelik – dayyn ónimdi eksportqa shygharudy azaytyp, elding ishki naryghyn keneytudi qolgha alu boldy. Búl ýshin qytaylyq júmysshylardyng enbekaqysy men túrmys dengeyin kóteru arqyly ishki naryqtaghy súranys dengeyin kóteru mejelendi. Búl óz kezeginde, Qytay ekonomikasynyng әlemdik ekonomikadaghy daghdarystargha tәueldiligin azaytty (adamzattyng shiyregine juyghy qytaylyq, osydan-aq QHR ishki naryghynyng әleueti qanday ekenin shamalaugha bolady). Hudyng búl sayasaty ózin-ózi tolyq aqtady: 1998 jylghy Ontýstik-shyghys Aziyany jaylap, 2007 jyldan býkil әlemde jýrgen daghdarystar Qytay ekonomikasyna aitarlyqtay yqpal ete almady.
Kóregen sayasatker retinde, Hu Szinitao Qytaydaghy ghylymiy-tehnikalyq damudyng elding mәdeny damuynan ozyp ketuine alandady. Múnday synarjaq damu qytaylyqtardy adamgershilik pen imandylyqtan, obal-sauap pen qanaghatshyldyqtan júrday etetin ruhany jaghynan qauipti ýrdis dep sanady. Erekshe aita ketetin mәsele, Hu Szinitao Qytay azamattaryna arnalghan «Segiz qayyrymdy jәne segiz kinәrat» (Ba Jun Ba Chiy) atty moralidyq tújyrymdar men qúndylyqtar jiyntyghyn úsyndy:
Birinshi: Otandy sýi; Oghan ziyan jasama;
Ekinshi: Halyqqa qyzmet et; ony eshqashan satyp ketpe;
Ýshinshi: Ghylymgha sýien; nadan bolma;
Tórtinshi: Zerek bol; jalqau bolma;
Besinshi: Izetti bol, әrkimge kómektes; bireuding esebinen payda tappa;
Altynshy: Adal jәne úqypty bol; payda ýshin ar-namys ústanymynan attama;
Jetinshi: Tәrtipti bol jәne zangha baghyn; haos pen zansyzdyqqa jol joq;
Segizinshi: Qarapayym ómir sýr, ayanbay enbek et; baylyq-barlyqqa mastanyp, rahat sezimge elitip ketpe.
Búl tuyndy bastapqyda Qytay kommunisteri ýshin, onyng ishinde, әsirese, chinovnikterge baghyttaldy. Ondaghy maqsat – memlekettik qyzmetkerlerdi patriottyqqa, ynsap pen qanaghatqa shaqyra otyryp, sybaylas jemqorlyqqa qarsy kýreske ar-úyat, namys, imandylyq, erik-jiger, otansýigishtik siyaqty asyl qasiyetterdi júmyldyru bolatyn. Býgingi tanda «Segiz qayyrymdy jәne segiz kinәrat» әrbir qytaylyqtyng jýregine jol tartyp, kýndelikti ómirde basshylyqqa alynatyn ústanym-qaghidalargha ainalghan.
Qalyptasqan sayasy dәstýrge sәikes, 2012 jylghy qarashada QKP XVIII sezinde Hu Szinitao partiyanyng OK qúramynan shyghyp, 15 qarashada ótken plenumda QKP OK tóraghasy bolyp Sy Szinipin saylanyp, ol 2013 jyly QHR jana tóraghasy boldy. Sy Szinipin de qalyptasqan sayasy dәstýrding saqtauda: ózine deyingi kóshbasshylardyng sayasy baghytyn jalghastyra otyryp, ol endi «qytaylyq armandy» jýzege asyratynyn mәlimdedi. Sondyqtan da, ol «qytaylyq armangha» jetuge kedergi keltiretin qoghamdyq keselder – sybaylas jemqorlyq pen әleumettik tensizdikke qarsy kýresti basym sayasy baghyttar retinde aiqyndady. Yaghni, janasha ekonomikalyq damu jemqorlyqtan taza jәne әleumettik әdilettilettilikke negizdelui tiyis. Sy Szinipin atap kórsetkendey, «jana basshylyq formalizm, burokratizm, gedonizm men ysyrapshyldyqqa batyl qarsylyq jasaydy, sybaylas jemqorlyq pen tәrtip búzushylyqtyng barlyq kórinisterine qarsy bel sheship kýresetin bolady». Qytaylyq biylikting ereksheligi, aytyldy bitti, oryndaluy mindetti. Olarda jemqorlyq qylmystar qatang jazalanady, Qazaqstandaghyday júmsaq emes, ólim jazasyn qoldanugha deyin barady. Bizde keybir sheneunikter milliondaghan tengening qylmysyn jasap, jaza retinde - shartty týrde bas bostandyghynan aiyrylumen ghana qútylyp jatady. Al, Qytayda jemqorlyq qylmystardyng jazasy óte auyr, memlekettik budjetten úrlap jegenin jelkesinen shygharyp, mal-mýlkin tәrkilep, halyq qazynasyna qol salghan úrynyng ózin týrmede shiritip, tipten, keybirin ólim jazasyna qiyady. Jalpy, songhy 30 jylda 4 mln. astam jemqor anyqtalyp, jazasyn alghan, onyng myngha juyghy jogharghy memlekettik biylikting chinovnikteri. 2000 jyldan beri 10 myng tayau iri jemqor sheneunik atylsa, 120 mynday korrupsioner 10-20 aralyghyndaghy bas bostandyghynan aiyrumen jazalanghan.
Sy Szinipin «sybaylas jemqorlyqqa qarsy kýres - tek qana arnauly memlekettik-partiyalyq organdar ainalysatyn is emes, búl - býkil qogham júmyla kirispese des bermeytin dert» degen qaghidany otandastarynyng sanasyna siniruge kýsh saluda. Qoghamdyq baqylaudy dúrys jolgha qoyyp, korrupsiyamen kýresudi jalpyhalyqtyq mindet etip qoydy. Qazir qarapayym qytaylyqtardyng ózi el ishindegi jebir sheneunikterding jýris-túrysyn, túrmys-tirshiligin jan-jaqty qadaghalap, qoghamdyq auqymda baqylaugha keng mýmkindikter aldy. Qanday da bir sheneunik qymbat kólik minip, sәn-saltanat qúrsa, zәulim-saray ýy sala qalsa, ony bayqaghan qytaylyq azamat arnauly organdargha habarlaydy. Múnday signaldardy tez arada arnayy organdar tekserip, arty quys sheneunik tapqan tabysynyng zandylyghyn dәleldey almasa, onda búl - jemqorlyq faktisi dep baghalanady. Sonymen qatar, qytaylyq jemqor sheneunikterding arasynda búrynnan qalyptasqan, jazylmaghan dәstýrlerding biri – astyrtyn týrde naqsýier súludy sýi, ashyna ústau bolatyn (keybir qazaqstandyq sheneunikterding toqal alyp, qúpiya mahabbat qúratyny siyaqty). Qytaylyqtar ózderining qatynqúmar hәm ashkóz sheneunikterin әshkereleuge qyzu kirisip, búl salalda da birqatar tәrtip ornata aldy. Búdan bólek, sheneunikter qyzmettik kólik retinde qanday markaly avtony paydalanatyny qadaghalanuda: asa qymbat kólikterding ornyna arzandau әri ýnemdi kólikterge kóshu qolgha alynghan. Qyzmettik kólikterdi sheneunikterding jeke sharuasyna paydalanuyna qatang tiym salynghan, júmystan tys uaqytta olar arnayy túraqtargha qoyylady. Jogharyda atalghan is-sharalardyng barlyghynyng jýzege asuyn halyqtyng múqiyat qadaghaluy jan-jaqty qarastyrylghan. Qytaylyqtardyng sanasynda memlekettik budjet býkil halyqtyng iygiligi, ortaq qarjy-qarajatty el bolyp, oryndy jәne ýnemdi júmsau qajet degen ústanym berik qalyptasyp keledi. Búl tústan da qazaqstandyqtardyng alatyn sabaqtary kóp. Sonymen qatar, memlekettik qyzmetting kәsiby dәrejesin arttyru maqsatynda reformalar jalghasuda, damyghan demokratiyalyq elderdegi siyaqty chinovnikter korpusyn konkurstyq negizde qalyptastyru jolgha qoyylghan. Qytayda búl sala boyynsha da bәsekelestik óte kýshti: memlekettik qyzmetke túru ýshin jylyna 1,4 million ýmitker arnayy últtyq emtihan tapsyrady, búl bir oryngha ýsh myngha taqau adam talasady degen sóz.
Sy Szinipini teniz porttarynan erkin eksport-import jýzege asatyn arnayy ekonomikalyq aimaqtaryn qúrugha niyettenude, әsirese, Shanhaydy Dubay ýlgisindegi әlemdik dengeydegi qarjy-sauda ortalyghyna ainaldyrugha kýsh salynyp jatyr. Shanhaydyng Vaygaosao, Pudun audandarynyng ózi ansha-múnsha elderding astanalaryna bergisiz damyp ketken. Qazir qytaylyqtar múnda últtyq valutalary - yuanidy shetel valutasyna aiyrbastamay-aq, halyqaralyq saudanyng qúralyna ainaldyrugha talpynuda. Búdan bólek: 5 arnayy ekonomikalyq aimaq (Shenichjeni, Chjuhay, Shanitou, Syameni, Haynani); memlekettik dengeydegi tehnikalyq-ekonomikalyq damugha arnalghan 90 aimaq (Pekiyn, Guanchjou, Tyaniszini, Dalyani, Harbiyn, Ýrimshi, Uhani, Chunsiyn, Hanchjou, Sheniyan, Chanchuni, Inkou jәne basqa iri qalalarda shoghyrlanghan); jogharghy tehnologiyalyq 75 aimaq (Pekinde «Chjungunisuni», Shanhaydyng Pudunyndaghy «Chjanszyan», sonday-aq, Nankiyn, Chendu, Guanchjou t.b. qalalardaghy joghary tehnologiyalyq ashyq aimaqtar); kedendik erkin 13 aimaq (Shanhay, Tyaniszini, Dalyani, Guanchjou, Ninbo, Chjanszyagan, Haykou, Syameni, Fuchjou, Sindao, Shanitou, Chjuhay, Shenichjeni qalalarynda); memlekettik dengeydegi shekara many ekonomikalyq yntymaqtastyghyna arnalghan 14 aimaq: Heyhe, Suyfenihe (Heylunszyan provinsiyasy), Manichjouli, Erlyani (Ishki Mongholiya avtonomdy audany), Hueychuni (Szilini provinsiyasy), Danidun (Lyaonin provinsiyasy), Iniyn, Bole, Tachen (Shynjan-Úighyr avtonomdy audany), Pinsyan, Dunsin (Guansi-Chjuan avtonomdy audany), Juyli, Vanitiyn, Hekou (iyninani provinsiyasy) óte qarqyndy damu ýstinde.
Sy Szinipinning erekshe nazar audarghan salalarynyng biri – ekologiyalyq qauipsizdik. Óitkeni, industriyalanudyng danghyl jolyna týsken Qytay ekonomikasy qorshaghan ortagha týrli ziyanyn keltirude. Jer, su, auany qasiyetti stihiyalar dep sanaytyn ejelgi shyghystyq dana filosofiyany industriyalanu, naryq, tauar, payda degen utilitarlyq-tútynushylyq zamanauy úghymdar túnshyqtyrdy. Tehnogendik jәne antropogendik әser etu Qytay halqynyng densaulyghyn búzyp, tabighy tepe-tendikti shayqaltuda, flora men faunanyng san-aluandyghyn joyyp, orny tolmas zardaptargha úryndyruda. Sondyqtan, QKP jana basshylyghy elding ekonomikalyq damuyn ekologiyalyq qauipsizdikti qamtamasyz etumen qatar órbitip, resurs ýnemdeu, ekologiyalyq taza tehnologiyalar qoldanu, balama energiya kózderin paydalanu siyaqty innovasiyalyq jolmen jýzege asyrudy kózdep otyr. 12 besjyldyq (2011-2015) ekstensivti óndiristen intensivtige ótumen jәne innovasiyalyq ekonomikany damytumen erekshelenip otyr.
Sy Szinipin syrtqy sayasatta beybit qarym-qatynas pen ózara tiyimdi yntymaqtastyqty ústanatynyn aityp, osy baghytta әreket etude. Olar qanday da bir elge ekonomikalyq nemese energetikalyq tәueldi bolghysy kelmeydi. Qazaqstannyng múnayy men gazyna qarap qalmay, Sy myrzanyng Ortalyq Aziya elderin aralap, olardyng bәrimen tyghyz baylanys ornatyp qaytuy da osydan. Qytaylyq biylikting pragmatizmine Shanhay yntymaqtastyq úiymyna mýshe memleket basshylarynyng Bishkekte ótken basqosuynda býkil әlem de kuә boldy. Degenmen, Qytay «Qúday saqtansang ghana saqtaydy» degen qaghidany eskere otyryp, әskery әleuetin jyl ótken sayyn kýsheyte týsude. Qazir әlemdegi әsker sany eng kóp memleket – Qytay bolyp tabylady. Qysqasy, Qytay ózin qay jaghynan alghanda da tәuelsiz el retinde jan-jaqty damytugha tyrysuda.
Qoryta aitar bolsaq, Qytaydyng songhy otyz jyldyq damu tarihyndaghy jýrgizgen reformalary men ashyqtyq sayasatynyng nәtiyjesinde qol jetkizgen tabystary orasan zor: qytaylyq ereksheliktegi sosializm jolyndaghy auyl sharuashylyghy 1,3 mlrd. halqyn azyq-týlikpen qamtamasyz etip qana qoymay, әlemge eksporttaydy, bilim beruge IJÓ 4 % júmsaytyn dәrejege qol jetkizdi, halqynyng 28 % jastar (15-35 jas arasyndaghylar 372 mln. adam), kedeyshilikpen kýreske erekshe mәn berilude (songhy onjyldyqta qazynadan 204,38 mlrd. yuani/31 mlrd. AQSh dollarynan astam qarajat júmsalghan), nәtiyjesinde kedeyler 250 mln. adamnan 14,79 mln. adamgha deyin kemip, 17 ese azayghan. 30 jylda 1 trln. AQSh dollarynan astam shetel investisiyasy tartylyp, 340 mlrd. dollar nesie iygerilgen. Álemdegi jasalghan әrbir tórtinshi jenil avtókólik te qytaylyq. Ayta bersek, Qytaydyng otyz jyldaghy oljalaghan tabystary bizdi tamsandyra beredi.
Al endi, «Qytay ghajayybynan» Qazaqstan nendey sabaq ala alady? Alatyn sabaqtar jeterlik. Negizgilerin atap aitsaq, mynaday oi-toqtam jasauymyzgha bolady. Ózining uaqyty kelgende Qazaqstandaghy biyleushi elitanyng almasatyny aqiqat. Ómirding tabighy zany da, qalyptasqan demokratiyalyq sayasy dәstýr de solay, ózgerip, týrlenip, damyp otyrady. Úrpaq almasuy zandylyq. Jogharyda aitylghanday, Qytayda Den Syaopinnen beri qalyptasqan sayasy dәstýr siyaqty, Qazaqstangha da jogharghy biylik almasuyn silkinissiz ótetindey etip, Elbasymyzdyng salyp bergen sara jolymen halyqty jarqyn bolashaqqa bastaytyn kóshbasshy izbasar dayyndau tәjiriybesin oilastyru zaman talaby bolyp tabylady. Jәne de, búl ózekti mәsele songhy kezderi qoghamdyq pikirge qozghau salyp, qyzu talqylanyp jýrgeni de jasyryn emes.
Osy uaqytqa deyin Qazaqstan «aldymen ekonomika, sosyn sayasat» degen qaghidany ústanyp keldi. Búl ústanym arqasynda kóptegen jetistikterge qol jetkizdik. Qazaqstannyng jana damu kezeninde sayasy reormalardy aldynghy oryngha qon qajettiligi tuyndap kele jatqany bayqalady. Sondyqtan, ekonomikalyq reformalardy terendete otyryp, odan sayasy jýiening reformalaudan qalyp qalmauyn oilastyruymyz qajet. Búl tústa da Qytaydan ýlgi aluymyzgha bolady.
Qytaymen salystyrghanda, Qazaqstannyng taghy bir basty kemshiligi kórinedi. Qytay aldygha qoyghan maqsattary men josparlaryn naqty bir uaqyt ishinde shynayy jýzege asyrady, al Qazaqstan bolsa, kýshti josparlar jasap, myqty memlekettik baghdarlamalar qabyldaydy, ony jýzege asyrugha qajetti qarjy-qarajatty da tabady, biraq, dúrystap jýzege asyra almaydy. Yaghni, nәtiyjelik az, tiyanaqtylyq pen tiyimdilik te jetispeydi. Osy kemshilikti týzemey, biz damymaymyz, jospar jayyna qalyp, qarjy da jelge úsha bermek.
Qazaqstandaghy ólim jazasyna jariyalanghan maratoriydi alyp tastap, auyr qylmystargha ólim jazasyn qoldanu qajettilikke ainalyp kele jatqan siyaqty. Sebebi, songhy jyldary elimizde aiuandyqpen jasalatyn auyr qylmystardyng sany artyp barady. Bizding qoghamymyz gumandy qúqyq qorghau jýiesine әli dayyn emestigin kórsetip otyr, qúqyqtyq sauattylyq pen qúqyqtyq mәdeniyetting dengeyi de tómen. Zannama men jazalaudy qatandatpay bolmaydy. Búl jayly jaqynda ótken Qazaqstandyq filosoftardyng kongresinde de ashyq aitylyp, ony ghalymdarymyz qyzu qoldady. Sol siyaqty, memlekettik budjetti tonap, asa ýlken somada talan-taraj jasaghan jemqorlargha Qytaydaghyday óte auyr jaza tәrkileumen qatar qoldanyluy qajet (elimizge qatty ziyan keltirse, ólim jazasyna kesuge deyin). «Qazannan qaqpaq ketse, itten úyat ketedi» degen sóz tegin aitylmaghan. Qatang jaza bolmay, úrlyq-qarlyq qylmystar da tiylmaydy. Memlekettik qyzmetke kiriserde ant bergen opasyz chinovnikterding jasaghan sybaylas jemqorlyghyn memlekettik satqyndyq dep baghalau qajet-aq. Memlekettik satyp alu, budjetti atqaru salalaryn reformalap, olqylyqtaryn týzep, jemqorlyqty tuyndatushy alghysharttardy jou qajet. Al, Qazaqstan halqy memlekettik budjetting býkil elge ortaq iygilik ekenin, budjet qazynasy salyq tóleushiler arqyly qalyptasatynyn sanasyna sinirui tiyis. Sondyqtan, halyqtyq qarja-qarajattyng oryn-ornymen júmsaluyna keshendi qoghamdyq baqylau ornatyp, jemqorlyqpen kýresti jalpyhalyqtyq iske ainaldyratyn mezgil keldi. Sybaylas jemqorlyqqa barsha qazaqstandyq halyq birigip, Qytaydaghy siyaqty, azamattyq kýres jýrgizbey jaghday jaqsarmaydy.
Qazaqstan industrialdyq-innovasiyalyq damugha erekshe mәn berude. Búl әriyne, quanyp qúptarlyq mәsele. Degenmen, el halqynyng jartysy auyldyq jerlerde túratynyn eskersek, biz QHR siyaqty, agrarlyq damugha barynsha basymdyq beruge tiyispiz. Keng baytaq qazaq jeri auyl sharuashylyghyna qolayly, ata-babalarymyz ejelden mal sharuashylyghyna beyimdelgen. Egin saludan da qúr alaqan emespiz. Qazaqstandyq agrarlyq ónimder ózining ekologiyalyq tazalaghy, sapasy men qúndylyghy jaghynan әlemdik naryqtan óz ornyn oiyp túryp alugha qabiletti. Auyl sharuashylyghyn damytudyng mulitiplikativtik әseri de orasan zor, ózimen irgeles ekonomika salalaryn, ónirlerdegi mәdeniy-ruhany ómirdi de qosa damytady. Auyl – qazaqtyng altyn qazynasy hәm dәstýrli qara tamyry.
Qytaydan ýirenetin taghy bir manyzdy mәselemiz - salyq jәne nesie sayasattary. Qazaqstandaghy nesiyening syiaqylyq payyzy - óte joghary, mәni - әleumettik әdiletsiz, sharttary - aramza әri qatigez. Ýkimetimiz salyq dengeyin kóteremiz dep, halyqty bir shulatyp alghany da belgili. Týrli tarifter de jylyna eki retten qymbattap, halyqtyng túrmys-tirshiligin odan әrmen tityqtatyp barady. «Kabala» nesiyeler qayyr-qaytarymsyz bolsa, auyr salyqtar olardan jaltarudy tuyndatady. Qymbatshylyqqa arqau bolyp otyrghan inflyasiya da halyqtyng taban aqy, manday terimen tapqan azyn-aulaq tabysyn qúnsyzdandyruyn toqtatar emes. Múnyng barlyghy, týptep kelgende, elimizding ekonomikalyq damuyn tejeushi jaghymsyz faktorlargha ainaluda. Múnday jaghdayda adamy kapitaldyng sapasyn kóteru de qiyngha soghary sózsiz. Osy salalardy әleumettik әdilettilikke negizdep, memlekettik dengeyde rasionaldy retteuge bolmas pa eken? Jogharyda qarastyrghanymyzday, kezinde jaghdayy bizdikinen әldeqayda mýshkil bolghan Aspan asty eli býginde keremet damugha qol jetkizdi ghoy? IYә, bәrin ait ta birin ait, ghajayypqa toly Qytaydan Qazaq elining ýireneri óte kóp.
Músataev Seyilbek – әl-Faraby atyndaghy Qazaq últtyq uniyversiyteti Sayasattanu kafedrasynyng professory, sayasy ghylymdarynyng doktory
Ghadylbek Qinanúly – QHR Shynjang pedagogikalyq uniyversiytetining agha oqytushysy
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