Halyqaralyq sayasatta ýlken sensasiya! Osy uaqytqa deyin Mәskeuding eng senimdi serigi bolyp kelgen Belarusi preziydenti Aleksandr Lukashenko kýtpegen jerden Ukraina preziydenti Vladimir Zelenskiyding qatal ulitimatumyna bas iyip, Kiyeving talabyn ýn-týnsiz oryndady.

Búl jay ghana shekara manyndaghy tehnikalyq sheshim be, әlde Kremliding óz odaqtastaryn qorghaugha qauqarsyz bolyp qalghanynyng belgisi me? Geosayasy búrylystyng astaryna ýnilip kóreyik.

72 saghattyq ulitimatum: Zelenskiy ne talap etti? Mәselening mәnisi mynada: 18 mausymda Vladimir Zelenskiy Minskige bir aptalyq merzim berip, Belarusi-Ukraina shekarasyndaghy úyaly baylanys múnaralaryna ornatylghan retranslyatorlardy óshirudi talap etti. Sebebi, búl qúrylghylar reseylik kamikadze-drondardyng Ukraina aumaghyna soqqy jasauyna navigasiyalyq kómek berip kelgen. Zelenskiy eger Minsk búny ózi jappasa, Ukraina әskeri ol múnaralardy zymyranmen ózderi joyatynyn ashyq aitty.

• Nәtiyje: Nebәri birneshe kýnnen keyin reseylik әskery blogerler men ukraindyq monitoring arnalary Belarusi shekarasynda úyaly baylanystyng ýzilgenin jәne reseylik drondardyng ol baghytta úshuyn toqtatqanyn rastady. Lukashenko Zelenskiyding ulitimatumyn tolyq oryndady.

Lukashenkonyng qúbyluy: Jayau jýris pen keshirim súrau Ózining qatqyl minezimen tanymal Lukashenko búl joly óte súnghyla әri iykemdi taktikagha kóshti. Ol Ukraina tarapymen jasyryn kelissózder jýrgizip qana qoymay, mynaday qadamdargha bardy:

1. Jariya týrde aqtalu: Lukashenko reseylik sheneuniktermen kezdesude Minskining soghysqa aralasqysy kelmeytinin jәne Ukrainamen «ayqay-shusyz, naqty» kelisu kerektigin aitty.
2. «Jiydek jinau» diplomatiyasy: Ukrainalyqtar ýshin shekaradaghy ýsh ótkizu punktin ashyp, olardyng Belarusi ormandarynan sanyrauqúlaq pen jiydek jinauyna rúqsat berdi. Shekaralary minalanghan soghys jaghdayynda búl absurd kóringenimen, Lukashenkonyng Kiyevke «beybit niyetin» kórsetuge tyrysqan ailasy edi.
3. Keshirim súrau: Eng qyzyghy, Lukashenko osyghan deyin Zelenskiyding jeke basyna qatysty aitqan auyr sózderi ýshin (esirtkige tәueldi degen aiyptauy ýshin) odan jariya týrde keshirim súrady.

Kremliding «yadrolyq qolshatyry» tesildi me? Nelikten Minsk Mәskeuden seskenbey, Kiyevke birjaqty jol berdi? Jauap bireu: Belarusi biyligi Reseyding búrynghyday qauipsizdik kepili bola almaytynyn týsindi. Ukrainanyng alys qashyqtyqqa úshatyn drondary men zymyrandary Mәskeudi de, Qyrymdy da soqqygha jyghyp jatqanda, Resey óz odaqtasyn ÁShQ (PVO) jýielerimen tolyq qorghay almaydy. Búny Lukashenkonyng ózi de moyyndap, Ukraina soqqy jasasa, Belarusiting býkil infraqúrylymy «alaqandaghyday» kýireytinin ashyq aitty.

Áriyne, Mәskeu búl joly Minskining kishigirim retranslyatorlardy óshiruine amalsyz kóz júmdy. Óitkeni, Belarusi soghysqa tikeley kirse, onyng әlsiz armiyasy Reseyge kómektese almaydy, al eldegi eki iri MÓZ (NPZ) soqqygha jyghylsa, onsyz da otyn tapshylyghyn kórip otyrghan Resey naryghy mýldem tyghyryqqa tireledi.

Týiin: «Retranslyatorlar isi» – ýlken geosayasy trendting basy. Reseyding Ukraina maydanyna baylanyp, resurstarynyng tausyluy onyng postkenestik kenistiktegi (Moldova, Ontýstik Kavkaz, Ortalyq Aziya) yqpalyn әlsiretip jatyr. Endi búl tolqyn Minskige de jetti. Lukashenko aldaghy uaqytta óz rejiymin saqtap qalu ýshin Mәskeu men Batys (Kiyev) arasynda «arqanda biyleu» taktikasyn odan ary ýdete týspek. Árkim óz basyn qútqarudyng qamyna kóshti.

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