AQSh Federaldyq rezerv jýiesining (FRJ) sheshimderi dәstýrli týrde әlemdik qarjy naryqtaryndaghy basty oqighalardyng biri bolyp sanalady. Amerikalyq retteushi tek AQSh-tyng ishki aqsha-nesie sayasatyn aiqyndaytynyna qaramastan, onyng sheshimderining yqpaly el shekarasynan әldeqayda asyp týsedi. Qazaqstan ýshin de FRJ sayasaty manyzdy, óitkeni ol dollar baghamyna, shiykizat tauarlarynyng baghasyna, investisiyalyq aghyndargha jәne syrtqy qarjylandyru qúnyna әser etedi.

2026 jylghy mausymda FRJ bazalyq payyzdyq mólsherlemeni 3,5–3,75% dengeyinde saqtap, aldaghy sheshimder inflyasiya men ekonomikanyng jay-kýiine qatysty jana derekterge sýiene otyryp qabyldanatynyn rastady. Qazirgi tanda naryq qatysushylarynyng nazary amerikalyq retteushining payyzdyq mólsherlemelerding aldaghy baghytyna qatysty beretin signaldarynda bolyp otyr, sebebi dәl sol investorlardyng kýtuleri kóp jaghdayda naryqtargha qabyldanghan sheshimderding ózinen kem әser etpeydi.

FRJ sayasaty Qazaqstangha qalay әser etedi

Qazaqstan ekonomikasy negizinen ishki faktorlardyng yqpalymen damyghanymen, әlemdik qarjy ýderisterinen tolyqtay oqshaulanu mýmkin emes. Sondyqtan FRJ sheshimderi elimizge birden birneshe baghyt boyynsha әser etedi. FRJ sayasatynyng últtyq valutagha yqpalyn janama әser dep ataugha bolady, sebebi FRJ sayasaty eng aldymen DXY dollar indeksine әser etedi, al ol óz kezeginde valuta júptarynyn, sonyng ishinde USD/KZT baghamynyng ózgeruine yqpal etedi.

Tenge baghamy 

AQSh-ta payyzdyq mólsherlemeler joghary dengeyde saqtalghan kezde, amerikalyq memlekettik obligasiyalar tәuekel dengeyi tómen әri kiristiligi salystyrmaly týrde joghary bolghandyqtan investorlar ýshin anaghúrlym tartymdy bola týsedi. Sonyng nәtiyjesinde halyqaralyq kapitaldyng bir bóligi dollarlyq aktivterge baghyttalyp, dollargha degen súranys artady, búl óz kezeginde damushy elderding valutalaryna qosymsha qysym týsirui mýmkin.

Qazaqstan ýshin búl, ózge jaghdaylar teng dәrejede bolghanda, dollardyng nyghangy tenge baghamynyng serpinine de әser etui mýmkin ekenin bildiredi. FRJ sayasatynyng últtyq valuta baghamyna yqpalynyng aiqyn mysaly retinde 2015 jyldy ataugha bolady, sol jyly FRJ 10 jylda alghash ret bazalyq payyzdyq mólsherlemeni 0,25%-dan 0,5%-gha deyin kóterdi. Búl sheshim erkin baghamgha kóshumen jәne múnay qúnynyng tómendeuimen qatar kelip, nәtiyjesinde tengening bir dollar ýshin 185 tengeden 300 tengeden astam dengeyge deyin әlsireuine әkeldi. 2022 jyly FRJ payyzdyq mólsherlemeni qysqa merzim ishinde 0,25%-dan 4,5%-gha deyin kóterip, búl da tengege qysym jasap, onyng әlsireuine әser etti, alayda múnay baghasynyng joghary boluy últtyq valuta baghamyn túraqtandyrugha mýmkindik berdi. Búl rette FRJ yqpaly jalghyz faktor bolyp tabylmaydy. Últtyq valuta baghamyna sonday-aq eksporttyq týsim kólemi, Últtyq qordan bólinetin transfertter, tólem tengerimining jaghdayy jәne Qazaqstan Últtyq Bankining sayasaty da eleuli yqpal etedi.

Nelikten Qazaqstan ýshin sheshimder ghana emes, naryqtyq kýtuler de manyzdy

Is jýzinde qarjy naryqtary kóbine FRJ qabyldaghan sheshimning ózine emes, retteushining aldaghy qadamdaryna qatysty qalyptasqan kýtulerge kóbirek nazar audarady. Eger investorlar payyzdyq mólsherlemelerding aldaghy uaqytta tómendeytinin kýtse, búl әdette damushy elderding aksiyalaryna, shiykizat tauarlaryna jәne aktivterine degen qyzyghushylyqty arttyrady. Al eger naryq qatang aqsha-nesie sayasaty saqtalady dep kýtse, dollargha jәne amerikalyq obligasiyalargha degen súranys, әdette, joghary dengeyde qalady.

Dәl sondyqtan da FRJ otyrystarynyng hattamalarynyng jariyalanuy, retteushi ókilderining mәlimdemeleri jәne AQSh-taghy inflyasiyagha qatysty jana derekter túraqty týrde әlemdik qarjy naryqtaryndaghy qozghalystyng drayverlerine ainalyp otyrady.

Qorytyndy: FRJ-nyng monetarlyq sayasatqa qatysty sheshimderi tenge baghamyn aiqyndaytyn negizgi faktor bolyp sanalmaydy, degenmen FRJ-nyng negizgi payyzdyq mólsherlemesining tenge baghamyna, sәikesinshe, importqa tәueldi Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna janama yqpal etetinin joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Sebebi importtalatyn tauarlar ýshin esep aiyrysu amerikalyq valutamen jýrgiziledi. AQSh FRJ sheshimderi investorlar ýshin de manyzdy, óitkeni naryqtaghy jaghday kóbine makroekonomikalyq kórsetkishterge, sonyng ishinde FRJ otyrystarynyng hattamalaryna baylanysty qalyptasady jәne múnday derekter әlemdik qarjy naryqtaryna janama ghana emes, tikeley de yqpal etui mýmkin ekeni aiqyn.

Dәuren Jәngir,

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