Qazaqstan men Qasym-Jomart Toqaevtyng 2026 jyldyng qyrkýieginde halyqaralyq kýn tәrtibinde jiyirek kórinuining birneshe sebebi bar. Qazaqstan resurstar men jana jetkizu tizbekteri ýshin kýresting ortalyghynda túr.

Elde múnay, uran jәne basqa da miyneraldardyng ýlken qory bar. Al manyzdy miyneraldargha, sonyng ishinde litiy men joghary tehnologiyalar ýshin qajetti basqa da resurstargha qyzyghushylyq qazirgi uaqytta arta týsti. Qyrkýiektegi «Ontýstik Koreya – Ortalyq Aziya» sammiytinde búl negizgi taqyrypqa ainaldy.

Toqaev kópvektorly syrtqy sayasatty belsendi týrde jýrgizip keledi. Qyrkýiek aiynda ol Ýndistandaghy BRIKS sammiytine qatysty. Onda basqa da kezdesulermen qatar AQSh Preziydentining arnayy elshisi Serdjio Gormen jýzdesti, sodan keyin Ontýstik Koreyagha memlekettik saparmen bardy.

Basqasha aitqanda, Qazaqstan bir mezgilde Reseymen, Qytaymen, AQSh-pen, EO-men, Ontýstik Koreyamen jәne basqa da yqpal ortalyqtarymen tengerimdi qarym-qatynasty saqtap otyr. Koreyagha jasalghan sapar óte manyzdy boldy. Qazaqstan men Ontýstik Koreya beybit yadrolyq energetika, energetika, ghylym jәne tehnologiya salasyndaghy yntymaqtastyqty qosa alghanda, birqatar kelisimderge qol qoydy. Shamamen 19 milliard dollargha baghalanghan kommersiyalyq kelisimder jasalghany habarlandy.

Batys pen Europa ýshin Qazaqstan balama ekonomikalyq jәne kólik seriktesi retinde manyzdy bola bastady. Mysaly, Toqaevtyng mausym aiynda Brusselige jasaghan saparynan keyin qúny shamamen 10 milliard eurony qúraytyn 30-gha juyq kommersiyalyq kelisimge qol qoyyldy.

El ishinde de iri sayasy ózgerister oryn aldy. 2026 jyly viyse-preziydent lauazymy engizilgen jana konstitusiyalyq modeli qabyldandy; Toqaev búl lauazymgha ózining kópjyldyq kenesshisi Erlan Qarindy taghayyndady. Reuters agenttigi jana Konstitusiyada preziydenttik merzimge qatysty erejelerding de ózgergenin atap ótedi.

Taghy bir manyzdy mәsele bar: Qazaqstan Resey, Qytay, Europa jәne Amerika Qúrama Shtattary arasyndaghy óz ornyn eshbir derjavagha tolyqtay tәueldi bolmay paydalanugha tyrysuda. Osynyng arqasynda Toqaev halyqaralyq dengeyde tanymal túlghagha ainalyp keledi. Qazirgi geosayasy bәsekelestik jaghdayynda Qazaqstannyng geostrategiyalyq orny әldeqayda qúndy týsedi.

Sózsiz, Qazaqstan Preziydenti 2023–2026 jyldar aralyghynda eldi birtindep kórnekti geosayasy habqa ainaldyrdy. Qazaqstan bir mezgilde Reseyge, Qytaygha, EO men AQSh-qa qajet bolyp otyr, әri ózining syrtqy sayasattaghy manevr jasau qabiletin saqtap qaldy.

Naqty ne boldy?

Ol Reseymen qarym-qatynasty ýzgen joq, biraq onyng tolyqtay jeteginde de ketpedi.

Búl – bәlkim, eng manyzdy tús. Reseyding Ukrainagha qarsy keng auqymdy soghysy bastalghannan keyin de Toqaev Mәskeumen tyghyz qarym-qatynasty ústandy. 2024 jyldyng qarashasynda ol Putindi Astanada qabyldap, Reseydi strategiyalyq seriktes әri odaqtas dep atady. 2025 jyldyng qarashasynda Resey men Qazaqstan «keng auqymdy strategiyalyq seriktestik pen odaqtastyq» dengeyine kóshkenderin jariyalady.

Biraq sonymen birge Qazaqstan:

• Reseyding Ukraina aumaqtaryn anneksiyalauyn moyyndamady;

• Ukrainamen diplomatiyalyq baylanystaryn ýzbedi;

• EO, AQSh jәne basqa da eldermen qarym-qatynasty damyta berdi;

• Batystyng Reseyge qarsy sanksiyalaryna avtomatty týrde qosylmaghanymen, búl sanksiyalardy ainalyp ótu ýshin Qazaqstan aumaghyn paydalanugha jol berilmeytinin mәlimdedi.

Nәtiyjesinde siyrek kezdesetin tepe-tendik qalyptasty: Mәskeu Astanany odaqtas sanaudy jalghastyruda, al Batys Qazaqstandy tәuelsiz seriktes retinde qarastyrady. Toqaevtyng túlghasyn barlyq tarap ýshin qyzyqty etetin de – osy faktor.

El Preziydenti Qazaqstannyng geografiyalyq ornalasuyn ekonomikalyq aktivke ainaldyrdy.

Qazaqstan Qytay men Europanyng ortasynda ornalasqan. 2022 jyldan keyin Resey arqyly ótetin dәstýrli sauda infraqúrylymy halyqaralyq kompaniyalar ýshin búrynghyday tartymdy bolmay qaldy.

Q.-J. Toqaev Transkaspiy halyqaralyq kólik baghytyn (Orta dәliz) belsendi týrde ilgeriletude: Qytay – Qazaqstan – Kaspiy tenizi – Ázerbayjan – Gruziya – Týrkiya – Europa.

EO búl baghytty strategilyq manyzdy dep tanyp, 2025 jyly Ortalyq Aziya arqyly ótetin kólik dәlizin damytudy qoldady. Europalyq Odaq pen halyqaralyq qarjy instituttary búghan deyin aimaqtaghy kólik baylanysyn jaqsartu ýshin shamamen 10 milliard euro júmyldyrghan bolatyn.

Búl – endi jay ónirlik marshrut emes. Europa ýshin búl – Reseyding kólik baghyttaryna tәueldilikti azaytu. Qytay ýshin – Europagha shyghatyn qosymsha baghyt. Al Qazaqstan ýshin – tranzitten payda tabu jәne ózin «úly derjavalar arasyndaghy elden» solardyng arasyndaghy kólik-logistikalyq habqa ainaldyru mýmkindigi.

Ol Europagha belsendi týrde jaqynday týsti.

Búl baghytta aitarlyqtay serpilis boldy. 2025 jyldyng sәuirinde ótken «EO – Ortalyq Aziya» alghashqy sammiytinde taraptardyng qarym-qatynasy strategiyalyq seriktestik dengeyine kóterildi.

Sonymen qatar, Qazaqstan – Ortalyq Aziyadaghy eng iri ekonomika. 2026 jyldyng mausymynda Toqaev Brusselige baryp, EO kóshbasshylarymen kezdesti. Biylesken mәlimdemede Europalyq Odaq Qazaqstanmen yntymaqtastyqtyng strategiyalyq baghyttaryn naqty kórsetti:

• manyzdy shiykizat;

• energetika;

• kólik men logistika;

• sifrlandyru;

• jana tehnologiyalar;

• yadrolyq energetika;

• Transkaspiy dәlizi.

EO, sonymen birge, Qazaqstannyng múnay men uran jetkizushi retindegi manyzdy rólin atap ótti. Yaghni, Europa qazir eldi jay ghana búrynghy kenestik respublika retinde emes, ózining energetikalyq jәne shiykizattyq qauipsizdigining manyzdy elementi retinde qarastyrady.

Ol uran men manyzdy miyneraldargha basa nazar audardy.

Eng qyzyqty oqighalar osy salada óris aluda. Qazaqstan – әlemdegi eng iri uran óndirushi. Yadrolyq energetika qayta janghyrghan kezende búl resurs erekshe mәnge ie boldy: AQSh pen Europa elderi Reseyding yadrolyq otyn jetkizilimine tәueldiligin azaytqysy keledi.

Sonymen qatar siyrek kezdesetin jer metaldary mәselesi aldynghy qatargha shyqty. 2025 jyly Qazaqstan qory 20 million tonnadan asatyn siyrek kezdesetin metaldar ken orny tabylghanyn habarlady. Búl baghalaular rastalsa, elding resurs әleueti orasan zor bolmaq.

AQSh manyzdy miyneraldar boyynsha yntymaqtastyq ornatu turaly Qazaqstanmen resmy kelissózder bastady. 2025 jyldyng qarashasynda D. Tramp Ortalyq Aziyanyng bes elining basshylaryn qabyldaghanda, siyrek metaldar kelissózderding basty taqyrybyna ainaldy.

Basqasha aitqanda, Vashington Qazaqstandy mynaday formula arqyly qabylday bastady: Uran + siyrek kezdesetin metaldar + múnay + kólik dәlizi + Resey men Qytay arasyndaghy geosayasy orny. Búl – mýldem basqa dengeydegi qyzyghushylyq.

Toqaev Qazaqstandy Batysqa birjola berip qoyghan joq, ol Qytaymen de qarym-qatynasty terendetti.

Búl – óte manyzdy strategiya. 2025 jyldyng mausymynda Sy Szinipin Astanagha resmy saparmen keldi.

Kelissózder qorytyndysy boyynsha Qazaqstan men Qytay energetika, gharysh, sifrlandyru, auyl sharuashylyghy, elektrondy kommersiya, ghylym, densaulyq saqtau jәne basqa da salalarda 24 ýkimetaralyq jәne vedomstvoaralyq qújatqa qol qoydy.

Toqaev tek bir ghana seriktesti tandaugha úmtylmaydy. Kerisinshe, ol әrbir iri jahandyq oiynshynyng Qazaqstanmen yntymaqtastyqtan payda tabuyn kózdeydi.

Qazaqstan Preziydenti derbes diplomat retinde belsendilik tanyta bastady.

Múnda onyng jeke diplomatiyalyq tәjiriybesi sheshushi ról atqarady. El basshysy – búrynghy Syrtqy ister ministri, Premier-Ministr jәne BÚÚ jýiesinde joghary qyzmet atqarghan kәsiby diplomat.

Sol sebepti de onyng syrtqy sayasaty kelissózderge, halyqaralyq qúqyqqa jәne kópjaqty platformalargha sýienedi. 2026 jyly búl ústanym Resey-Ukraina soghysy fonynda anyq bayqaldy.

Mysaly, 2026 jyldyng shildesinde Ombyda Putinmen birge túrghan Toqaev qaqtyghysty toqtatudy jәne kelissózderge oraludy ashyq týrde qoldap, «Stambul formulasy 2.0» dialogyna nazar audarudy úsyndy. Kremli búl týsindirmemen tolyq kelise qoymasa da, búl manyzdy epizod boldy: Toqaev Resey basshylyghymen tyghyz baylanysty saqtay otyryp, soghysqa qatysty óz ústanymyn ashyq týrde bildire alady.

Ishki sayasy reformalar men qayta qúrular.

2022 jylghy qantar oqighalarynan keyin Toqaev auqymdy sayasy ózgeristerdi bastady. 2022 jyly konstitusiyalyq referendum ótkizilip, preziydenttik ókilettikterding bir bóligi qayta bólindi, Parlamentting róli kýsheytildi, sonday-aq Preziydent pen onyng jaqyndaryna qatysty belgili bir shekteuler engizildi.

Búl Qazaqstan birden batystyq liyberaldy demokratiyagha ainaldy degendi bildirmeydi – elding sayasy jýiesin baghalau halyqaralyq dengeyde әli de talqylanyp keledi. Biraq syrtqy әlem ýshin manyzdy fakt: Toqaev Nazarbaev dәuirining búrynghy modelinen alshaqtap, eldi «Jana Qazaqstan» retinde tanytugha úmtyldy. Dәl osy sebepti de Toqaev tek syrtqy sayasatta emes, ishki transformasiya túrghysynan da talqylanatyn túlghagha ainaldy.

Qorytyndy:

Songhy jyldardaghy negizgi ózgeris – Qazaqstan endi jay ghana «Resey men Qytay arasyndaghy búrynghy kenestik respublika» retinde qabyldanbaydy. Ol – resurstardy, energetikany, kólikti basqaratyn jәne birneshe jahandyq derjavalardyng mýddelerin toghystyrghan tәuelsiz oiynshy. Al Qazaqstan Preziydenti búl artyqshylyqtardy diplomatiyalyq kapitalgha belsendi týrde ainaldyra bildi.

Sonymen qatar, Preziydentting jeke rólin tym asyra baghalaugha da bolmaydy: búl qyzyghushylyqtyng tuyndauy tek Toqaevtyng әreketinen emes, 2022 jyldan keyin halyqaralyq geosayasy jýiening ózi týbegeyli ózgergendiginen. Al Qazaqstan basshysy payda bolghan tarihy mýmkindikterdi sheber paydalanyp keledi.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov,

S. Seyfullin atyndaghy Qazaq agrotehnikalyq zertteu uniyversiytetining dosenti, tarih ghylymdarynyng kandidaty

Abai.kz