Álem nazary taghyda «Mәskeu men Minsk» arasyndaghy teketireske audy. Osy mәselege qatysty CNBC mediabasylymynda Frederik Kempiyding (Frederick Kempe) «Kózindi ashyp, Putinning tamyzdaghy tosyn syiyna zer sal» atty maqalasy jaryq kórdi.

Frederik Kempy búghan deyin «The Wall Street Journal»-da sheteldik tilshi bolyp 25 jyldan astam enbek etken.  Atlantikalyq kenesting әm preziydenti, әm bas diyrektory, AQSh «oy tamyzyq» ortalyqtarynyng jahandyq mәseleler boyynsha bedeldi sarapshysy.

Biz Kempiyding jogharydaghy maqalasyn «Abai.kz» oqyrmandaryna úsynghandy jón kórdik.

Frederik Kempiyding maqalasy:

«Amerika-Qytay» arasyndaghy kórigi qyza týsken alauyzdyq júrt nazaryn ózine audartqanymen, bәribir osy jazdaghy Batys ýshin tosyn syy Reseydegi Vladimir Putin tarapynan bolady.

Sebebi biyl 21-jylgha ayaq basqan Putin basqaruyndaghy Reseyding halyqaralyq ambisiyasy men ishki irip-shirui arasyndaghy qarama-qayshylyqqa qúrylghan týzilim qashanda onyng mýmkindigi men ózge tóndirer qaupin aldynghy qatargha shygharyp otyrady.

Onyng memlekettik bandokratiyasy әskery modernizasiyalaudy keng kólemde óristetip, óz qúramyna tayauda ghana elge mәlim bolghan jasandy jer serigine qarsy gharyshtyq qarudyng synaluyn qosyp otyr.

Búdan bólek, aldynghy qatarly әskery tehnologiyalary jәne tiyimdiligi tómen tehnologiyamen jasaqtalghan jaldamaly armiyalarda ontayly kәdege jaraytyn giyperdybystyq tehnologiya salasyndaghy әlemdik barlau is-sharalary men ondaghy jetistikteri keninen jarnamalanuda.

Elding demografiyalyq qarttyq qaqpanyna týskeni, ekonomikasynyng túralaghany, múnay baghasynyng týsui onyng shanyraghyn shayqaltyp ta ketti.  Álemdik bank halqynyng 12,3%-y nemese 18 mln. adamy kedeylik sheginde ómir sýrip jatqan Reseyding IJÓ 2020 jyly 6%-gha kemiydi dep boljap otyr.

AQSh-tyng koronaviruske, eldegi ekonomikalyq daghdarysqa әm nәsildik apalan-topalangha nazarynyng birjola auyp, Europanyng ózi ishindegi alauyzdyq pen qarashadaghy saylaugha qatysty jeke basymen qayghy boluy Putin ýshin eng ýlken mýmkindikterding kókjiyegin ashty desek te bolady. «Dosy» sanalatyn preziydent Tramptyng qarashadaghy saylauda útylyp qaluy da ghajap emestigin bek jaqsy biletin Putin sәti kelip túrghan mýmkindikti qúr jibermeytini de aqiqat.

Tótesinen tughan qauip qiyr shyghystaghy Habarovsk qalasynda oryn alghan protestik aksiyalardyng keng kólemdi әri úzaqqa sozyluy bop tabylady. «Levada» jýrgizgen saualnamada reseylikterding 45%-y tayauda ótken antikremldik protester tolqynyn qúptaytynyn jazypty. Putinning qarsylastary da temirdi qyzghan kezinde soghyp, tekke qarap jatpaytyny da belgili.

Búl arada tamyz tosyn syiy bolatyn-bolmaytynyn kesip aitu óte qiyn desek te, onyng biri AQSh-taghy qarashada ótetin saylaudyng aldynda boy kórsetetindigi Reseyding zor әleueti, bolmasa әlsizdigi syndy eki faktordyng qoyyndasyp ketuine baylauly.

Búdan búrynda Mәskeuding algha basqan qadamy keyin ketken kezde, Putin ózining ishki baqylauyn bekemdey týsu ýshin sheteldegi avanturgha jýginetin.

2008 jylghy tamyzdaghy orys-gýrji soghysy, 2014 jylghy Qyrymdy anneksiyalauy, 2015 jyldan bastau alghan Reseyding Sýriyanyng azamat soghysyna әskery aralasuy, Europadaghy elektoraldy әri jalghan aqparattyq belsendilik, әsirese osy jylghy qantardaghy AQSh-taghy saylaugha kiyligui syndy tosyn syidy kýtuge bola ma?

Osy baghyttaghy Reseyding qadamy 9 tamyzdaghy belarusi saylauyna bilek sybana kirisuden bastaldy.

Europalyq sayasatshy Yanush Bugayksy Putin belarusiti qaqalmay jútudyng sәtin óz paydasyna jaratyp, últty azat etushi keypine enip, «Belarustaghy tolqudyng ósui men eldegi dauly preziydenttik saylaudy» óz kәdesine jaratuy mýmkin, dep sanaydy.

Osy aptada 32 reseylikting Minsk manyndaghy sanatoriyde qamaugha alynghanynan keyin, óz elinde ýsh birdey oppozisiyalyq toptyng qyspaghynda qalghan Belarusi preziydenti Aleksandr Lukashenko: «Kremlimen ym-jymy bir әskery merdigeri Vagner saylau aldynda elde túraqsyzdyq ornatu ýshin ózining 200 jaldamaly jendetin jiberdi», dep aiyptady.

Bir nәrse týsinikti: Ol – Putinning Lukashenkomen qarym-qatynasy qatty suysyp, songhysy Mәskeu basymdyqqa ie bolyp otyrghan, Resey ýshin óte tiyimdi eki memleketting bir odaqqa biriguine óz qarsylyghyn ashyq bildirdi. Lukashenko búghan deyin Europa jәne AQSh-pen tyghyz baylanysqa týsip, memhatshy Mayk Pompeonyng aqpandaghy is-saparynda asqan qonaqjaylyq tanytqan.

Putin kóbine óz jerindegi kremldik biylikti azyp-tozdyratyn, Lukashenkonyng basyn ala qashuy nemese batystyq qúndylyqtargha, Gýrjistan men Ukrainagha býiregi búratyn oppozisiyalyq is-әreket tәrizdi kez kelgen bas kóteruge qarsy shyghady.

Keybir sarapshylar Putinning tap osynday avanturagha baruyna tәbeti qaytyp, jýni jyghylyp qaldy degendi sóz etedi. Biraq ol әli kýnge deyin AQSh-ty, Europany nemese ózge de elderdi kózge ilmeytindigin tanytyp jýr.

Ótken aptada Tramp ózining «Axios on HBO» telearnasyna bergen súhbatynda: «Resey Aughanstandaghy amerika soldattaryn óltiru ýshin talibterge aqsha tólep otyr degen barlau mәlimeti boyynsha, Putinmen sózge kelispey qalghanym joq», dep mәlimdedi. Tramp aqpan aiynyng ayaghynda qolyna kýndelikti barlau mәlimeti týskennen keyin Putinmen úzyn sany segiz ret sóileskenin aitty.

Eger ótkenning sabaghy – keleshekting tәlimi bolady desek, onda ekonomikalyq syrqat Reseyde Putinning basyna qara búlt ýiiriledi deytin batys danyshpandarynyng armandaryna qosyla qoymaymyz.

Bәri bir ol ózining halyqaralyq tabystarymen qanattanyp, beti qaytyp kórmegen tentek mektep oqushysy sekildi kenes dәuirining dәurenining ýziluin әdiletsizdik dep sanap, ony qalpyna keltiru jolyndaghy júmysyn ózine ontayly tәsilmen jalghastyra beretin bolady.

Financial Times tilshisi Katrin Bilton (Catherine Belton) jazghan «Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West» kitabynda bolashaq preziydent ózining mansap jolynyng әr kezeninde KGB әdis-tәsilderin keninen kәdege jaratqanyn ashyp kóresete alghan», - dep Enn Epplbaum resenziya jazady.

Taghy bir biz sýienetin derekkózi Konstantin Malofeevpen birge Europa boyynsha balamaly demokratiya men europalyq integrasiyalyq úiymdy qúrghan reseylik biznesmen Vladimir Yakunin atalghan kitaptyng avtory Boltongha: «Reseyding jahandyq jaghdayyn qalpyna keltiru basty maqsatymyz», degeni.

Óz kezeginde Resey boyynsha amerikalyq sarapshy Andjela Stent: «Resey ózining shekteuli ekonomikalyq mýmkindigine qaramay, әli kýnge deyin beldi halyqaralyq oiynshy bolyp tabylady. Búghan sebep, AQSh-tyng senimdiligine qatysty óz odaqtastary arasyndaghy tuyndap, óristey týsken kýmәn»,- dep jazady.

Vashingtonnyng Putin turaly keninen taraghan «baskeser – diktator» degen pikirine qaramay, onyng jahandyq әriptesteri, onyng ishinde Tayau Shyghystyng joghary shendi sheneuinikteri onyng (Putinnin) boyynan biznes jýrgizuge asa senimdi pragmat kóshbasshyny kóretindikterin ashyq sóz etedi. Olar Sýriyada Irangha qaraghanda Reseydin, Liviyada Týrkiyagha qaraghanda Reseyding boluyn qúptaytyndaryn joqqa shygharmaydy.

Jazghy «bombanyn» jaryluyna baylanysty Stent: «Bәri túraqty bolyp kóringenimen, ayaq astynan bәrining ózgerip sala berui orys tarihyna tәn dýniye. Putin júrtty tang qaldyrudan janylmay keledi. Ayaq astynan asyghys úiymdastyrghan referendum dәl osynyng dәleli. Qansha degenmen ózine qatysty eshkim kýtpegen shaqyrularmen betpe-bet kelip, biylik tizginin belgisiz uaqytqa deyin saqtap qala bildi»,- dep jazady.

Al, endi osy tamyzgha qatysty sóz etetin bolsaq, eger búl tosyn syy bolatyn bolsa, onda ol Putinning tandauy bolghany dep bәs tiguge barmyn.

Dayyndaghan Ábil-Serik Áliakbar

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