Álemdik geosayasatta Kavkaz aimaghy keyingi kezderi óte kýshti strategiyalyq mәnge ie boluda. Búl da óz kezeginde týsinikti jayt. Irannyng kók jelkesinen, Reseyding dәl qabyrghasynan qanjarday qadalatyn geografiyalyq ornalasu ereksheligi de óte manyzdy. Euraziya aimaghyndaghy energoresurstarynyng tasymaldanu baghyttaryn baqylauda ústau ýshin Kavkazdyng geosayasy manyzy orasan ekeni beseneden belgili. Songhy uaqytta әlemdik alpauyt kýshterding Kavkaz aimaghyndaghy teketiresi qayta jandana bastaghanday. Búl joly oqighalar Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasyndaghy dau-damayly Tauly Qarabaq tónireginde qyzu órby bastady. Búl teketires syrt kózge Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasynda sekildi kóringenmen shyn mәninde Resey, Iran, Izraili jәne soltýstik atlantikalyq blok arasyndaghy óte kýrdeli, kóp qyrly qyzu oiyn jýrude.

Kavkaz aimaghy әlemdegi kez kelgen zamat qaqtyghysqa úlasu qaupi bar ystyq nýktelerding biri ekeni dausyz. Mәseleni tek Sheshenstan men Daghystan, Gruziya men Soltýstik Osetiya, Tauly Qarabaq mәseleleri retinde qaraugha bolmaydy. Aymaqtaghy shiyilenisting eng ótkir mәselesi Resey jәne Irannyng aimaqta ornatqan birtútas qorghanys blogy men AQSh, Izraili jәne soltýstik atlantikalyq kýshterding Resey-Iran blogymen teketiresi retinde payymdau qajet.

Álemdik geosayasatta Kavkaz aimaghy keyingi kezderi óte kýshti strategiyalyq mәnge ie boluda. Búl da óz kezeginde týsinikti jayt. Irannyng kók jelkesinen, Reseyding dәl qabyrghasynan qanjarday qadalatyn geografiyalyq ornalasu ereksheligi de óte manyzdy. Euraziya aimaghyndaghy energoresurstarynyng tasymaldanu baghyttaryn baqylauda ústau ýshin Kavkazdyng geosayasy manyzy orasan ekeni beseneden belgili. Songhy uaqytta әlemdik alpauyt kýshterding Kavkaz aimaghyndaghy teketiresi qayta jandana bastaghanday. Búl joly oqighalar Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasyndaghy dau-damayly Tauly Qarabaq tónireginde qyzu órby bastady. Búl teketires syrt kózge Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasynda sekildi kóringenmen shyn mәninde Resey, Iran, Izraili jәne soltýstik atlantikalyq blok arasyndaghy óte kýrdeli, kóp qyrly qyzu oiyn jýrude.

Kavkaz aimaghy әlemdegi kez kelgen zamat qaqtyghysqa úlasu qaupi bar ystyq nýktelerding biri ekeni dausyz. Mәseleni tek Sheshenstan men Daghystan, Gruziya men Soltýstik Osetiya, Tauly Qarabaq mәseleleri retinde qaraugha bolmaydy. Aymaqtaghy shiyilenisting eng ótkir mәselesi Resey jәne Irannyng aimaqta ornatqan birtútas qorghanys blogy men AQSh, Izraili jәne soltýstik atlantikalyq kýshterding Resey-Iran blogymen teketiresi retinde payymdau qajet.

Biylghy jyldyng mausym aiynan bastap Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasynda qandy qaqtyghystar jiyilip ketti. AQSh syrtqy ister ministri Hillary Klintonnyng aimaqqa jasaghan resmy saparynyng qarsanynda shekara qaqtyghystary oryn alghany mәlim. Azerbayjan qorghanys ministrligi taratqan aqparat boyynsha mausym aiynyng basynda shekara manyndaghy qaqtyghystar saldarynan bes, keybir derekkózderinde odan da kóp Azerbayjan әskeri qaza tapqan. Armyan әskerleri arasynda da shyghyn bar ekeni aityluda [1]. Osydan keyin Azerbayjannyng әskery kýshteri men syrtqy sayasat vedomostvasynda jantalas bastaldy da ketti. Syrt kózge Bakuding әreketteri beyne bir soghys aldyndaghy dayyndyqtargha úqsaytyn sekildi.

Osy oqighalardan keyin Resey de jantalasa Armeniyadaghy Gumry әskery bazasyn kýsheyte bastaghany aityluda. Reseyding Ontýstik әskery okrugining qolbasshysy Igori Gorbuli 2012 jyly Armeniyadaghy Resey әskery qúramasynyng sany eki esege kóbeytiletindigin mәlimdep aidy aspangha bir-aq shyghardy [2]. Býginde Reseyding Armeniyada 5000 әskery qúramasy jәne S-300 әueden qorghanys zenittik-zymyrandyq kesheni bar ekeni belgili.

Shekara qaqtyghystarynan keyin týrik generaldary da sapyrylysyp birinen keyin biri Bakuge attandy. Aldymen Týrkiya Joghary әskery shtaby generaldary Hayry Kyvrykoghlu jәne Bekir Kalionjy, artynan Týrkiyanyng әskeriy-әue kýshterining Bas qolbasshysy Bakuge at basyn tiredi. Tek әskeriyler ghana emes, Týrkiyanyng syrtqy sayasat vedomostvasy sheneunikteri men sayasy qayretkerleri Bakuge saparlaudy jiyiletip jiberdi [3]. Resey, Iran jәne Týrkiyanyng aimaqtaghy belsendiligi aldaghy uaqytta alapat bir dauyldyng kele jatqandyghynyng habarshysy ispetti.

Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasyndaghy yqtimal qaqtyghys alpauyttardyng teketiresten ashyq qaqtyghysqa ótuining kórinisi bolmaq. Qúday betin әri qylsyn, degenmen jaghday dәl biz aitqanday órbiytin bolsa, Resey, Iran jәne AQSh bastaghan soltýstik atlantikalyq kýshter búl qaqtyghystan tys qala almaq emes. 2008 jylghy Gruziya men Soltýstik Osetiya qaqtaghysynda AQSh bastaghan soltýstik atlantikalyq kýshter Tbilisiyge jasaytyn eshbir qayrany bolmaghanyn kórdik. Resey sol joly Gruziyagha ghana emes, tútas soltýstik atlantikalyq blokka auyr soqqy berip, aimaqtaghy geosayasy ýstemdigin nyqtap alghan bolatyn. NATO-nyng sharasyzdyng kýiin keshkenine kuә boldyq sol soghysta. AQSh pen Izrailiding aimaqtaghy songhy kezderdegi belsendiligi Resey men Irangha únay qoymaytyny anyq. Sondyqtan, Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasyndaghy qaqtyghysty paydalanyp, Resey men Iran aimaqta óz esebin býtindep alugha úmtylatynyn da qaperden tys qaldyrmaghan jón.

Kavkazdaghy teketires Tauly Qarabaq mәselesi ghana emes búl, Siriyadaghy jaghdaymen qosa alghanda Iran men Izraili teketiresin de qamtityn kóp qyrly geosayasy oiyn. Óitkeni, búl aimaqta eshbir dauly mәsele óz aldyna jeke dara qarastyrugha kelmeydi. Biraz artqa sheginer bolsaq, shekara qaqtyghystarynan búryn qanday oqilar oryn alghanyna nazar audaryp kórelik.

Iran biylghy jyldyng basynda ózining yadrolyq zertteulerin jýrgizip jatqan ghalymdaryna jasalghan qastandyqty Izrailiding úiymdastyrghanyn algha tartqany belgili. Iran Izraili qauipsizdik qyzmeti osy operasiyany Azerbayjan territoriyasyn qoldana otyryp úiymdastyrdy dep esepteydi. Tipti, osy mәsele boyynsha Iran aqpan aiynda Azerbayjangha eskertu notasyn da jasaghany mәlim [4].

Kóp keshikpey Azerbayjan biyligi de qarymta jasady. Nauryz aiynda Iran revolusiya saqshylary ýshin tynshylyq jasady degen aiyppen 22 kisine tútqyndaldy. Azerbayjan últtyq qauipsizdik ministrligi Iran ýshin tynshylyq jasaghan toptyng әshkerelengenin, tútqyndalghandardyng barlyghy derlik Azerbayjan azamattary ekendigin, Azerbayjanda AQSh, Izraili jәne keybir batys elderi elshilikteri jәne elshilik qyzmetkerlerine qarsy terrorlyq shabuyldar úiymdastyru dayyndyghyn jýrgizip jatqandyghyn mәlimdegen bolatyn [5]. Búl azamattar otangha opasyzdyq jasau qylmysy boyynsha aiyptaluda.

Bir jaqtan Iran yadrolyq zertteuler jýrgizip jatqan ghalymdaryna qastandyq jasaghan Izrailidik barlau qyzmeti Azerbayjandy qoldanghanyn aityp aiyptasa, endi bir jaqtan Izraili men batys elderi Iran qauipsizdik qyzmeti Azerbayjandy qoldanyp, óz elshilikteri men elshilik qyzmetkerlerine terrorlyq shabuyl úiymdastyrylmaq bolghanyn aityp bir-birin aiyptady. Iran búrynnan-aq Azerbayjandy Mossadtyng negizgi operasiyalyq bazalarynyng biri retinde kóretini qúpiya emes. Osyghan qarap Azerbayjandy әlemdegi alpauyt elderding barlau qyzmetterining astyrtyn soghys maydany boldy ma degen oigha qalasyn. IYә, eki ottyng ortasynda qalu degen osy bolar.

Biylghy jyly nauryz aiynda Azerbayjan Izrailiden 1 milliard 600 million dollargha әskery tehnika satyp alu ýshin jasaghan kelisim-sharty da Iran men aradaghy qatynasty odan beter shiyilenistirip jiberdi [6]. Iran búl kelisimdi Izrailiding ózine qarsy jýrgiziletin yqtimal shabuylynyng bir dayyndyghy retinde qarastyruda. Kezinde Izraili Gruziyany Kavkazdaghy eng manyzdy operasiyalyq, garnizondyq ortalyqtarynyng birine ainaldyrghany belgili. Degenmen, Izrailige búl jetpedi, Azerbayjangha da auyz sala bastady. Múnyng da ózindik sebebi bar. Keyingi jyldary Izraili men Týrkiya arasyndaghy qarym-qatynastyng kýrt nasharlap ketui saldarynan týrikter Izraili әskeriy-barlau úshaqtarynyng úshuyna óz әue kenistigin japqany belgili. Búghan deyin Izraili Irandy jan-jaqtan qyspaqqa alu ýshin Gruziyagha Týrkiya arqyly qaru-jaraq jetkizetin. Týrkiyamen aradaghy qatynastar setiney bastaghanda Teli-Aviv Azerbayjangha basymdyq berip, Gruziya syndy «garnizondyq elge» ainaldyrugha kýsh sala bastady. Iran jaghy Azerbayjanda Izrailiding jasyryn әskery bazalary qúrylghanyn da algha tartudan qaytar emes. Tegeran Azerbayjannyng Izrailiding ózine qarsy dayyndap jatqan aimaqtaghy «troya aty» ekendigine senimdi. Osynyng saldarynan Baku men Tegeran arasyndaghy salqyndyq kýn sanap arta týsude. Azerbayjan túrghysynan múnyng da ózindik sebepteri bar. Azerbayjan men Armeniya arasyndaghy teketireste Iran ashyqtan ashyq Armeniyany qoldaudan tanbay keledi. Búl aimaqtaghy Resey - Iran blogynyng myzghymastyghynyng bir kórinisi tәrizdi. Resey men Irannyng Kavkaz aimaghynda da, Siriya men Tayau Shyghys mәselelerinde de ústanymdary bir-birine óte jaqyn, aimaqta bir-birimen qaqtyghyspaytyn ýilesimdi sayasat jýrgizude.

Azerbayjandaghy Izraili jәne AQSh-tyng belsendiligi negizinen Irandy soltýstik jaghynan kók jelkeden qyspaqqa alugha baghyttalghan әreketter ekendigi belgili. Azerbayjan osy sayasaty arqyly Reseyding de shamyna tiyetini sózsiz. Býginde Baku eki kemening basyn qatar ústap, Resey men batystyq blok arasynda eki vektorly sayasat jýrgizude. Azerbayjan Tauly Qarabaqty qaytaru ýshin Izraili jәne soltýstik atlantikalyq bloktyng qoldauymen esep aiyrysudy kózdeytindey kóringenmen shyn mәninde Kavkazdaghy teketiresting bas oiynshylary Azerbayjan da, Armeniya da emes, Resey, Iran jәne Izraili ekenin úmytpaghan jón.

Azerbayjannyng jaghdayyna kelsek, qazirgi baghyty otpen oinaghanday әser qaldyrady. 2008 jyly Gruziyany batystaghy odaqtastary syn saghatta Reseyding azuly shengelinde japadan jalghyz tastap ketti. Dәl osynday jaghday Azerbayjannyng da basyna kelmeytindigine kepildik joq. Kavkazdaghy jaghdaydyng búdan keyingi órbuine Siryadaghy yqtimal azamattyq soghys nemese soltýstik atlantikalyq kýshterding intervensiyasy da eleuli yqpal etetin bolady.

Qoryta aitqanda Azerbayjan men Armeniya qaqtyghysynyng artynda alpauyt kýshterding aimaqtaghy teketiresi jatyr. Mәseleni basqa qyrynan qarasaq, alpauyttardyng teketiresi Azerbayjan men Armeniya qaqtyghysynda sheshushi ról oinamaq. Azerbayjan men Armeniyanyng yqtimal qaqtyghysy eki elge de ýlken zardaptary bolatyndyghyna basqalar bas auyrtyp jatpasy anyq. Azerbayjannyng basyp alynghan jerin qaytaryp alugha degen zandy úmtylysyn әriyne týsinuge bolar, degenmen Resey, Iran jәne Izraili men soltýstik atlantikalyq kýshterding geosayasy túzaghynan saq bolu qajet.

Núrbek Isabayúly

L.N. Gumiylev atyndaghy EÚU

Halyqaralyq jәne aimaqtyq zertteuler

ortalyghy ghylymy qyzmetkeri

«Abay-aqparat»

1.     http://www.miacum.ru/gazeta/2012/

2.     http://dagestan.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/208409/

3.     http://www.milligazete.com.tr/haber/jandarma-genel-komutani-orgeneral-bekir-kalyoncu-baku-de-241703.htm

4.     http://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/iran-azerbaycana-nota-verdi-28265.html

5.     http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/id/25330509/

6.     http://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/azerbaycan-ve-israil-arasinda-silah-anlasmasi-30142.html