Tәlibter Tәjikstandy bir aptada basyp alatynyn mәlimdedi. Búl birinshi mәlimdeme emes jәne songhysy da emes. Dushanbege tәlibterding shýiligui artyp keledi, onyng sebebi de joq emes. Tәlibter "Tәjikstan ishki sayasatymyzgha aralasyp otyr" desedi. 

Taliban "Biz Tәjikstandy bir aptada basyp alamyz, eger ony qoldaushy elder bolmasa" dep mәlimdeme jasady. Tәlibter Tәjikstannyng Ahmad Masudty qoldap, aqparattyq dengeyde jәrdemdesip jatqanyna narazy. Ahmad Masudqa qaru-jaraq boyynsha jәne úrysty jýrgizu boyynsha taktika qúryp, kómektesude deydi tәlibter. Masud 2021 jyly 15-tamyzda tәlibter Kabuldy basyp alyp, eldi óz qolyna alghan sәtte, Talibangha qarsy soghys jariyalaghan bolatyn. Áygili Ahmad Shah Masudtyng úly әkesining jolyn quyp, Pandjsher shatqaly men Baghlan aimaghynda úrys qimyldaryn bastady. Býginde onyng jasaghyn 5-10 myng sarbazdan túrady degen aqparat bar. Ahmad Masudtyng ózi ne Tәjikstanda, ne Europa elderining birinde deydi ashyq derekkózder. Ol Aughanstannan tys aimaqta kelissózder jýrgizip, tәlibterge qysym jasau amaldaryn qarastyru ýstinde.

Tәlibter Aughanstannyng soltýstik aimaqtarynda "Talibannyng Tәjikstandyq úiymy" atty bólimshe qúrdy. Ol Tәjikstanmen shekaralas aimaqta әreket etpek jәne basty maqsaty Tәjikstannyng ishki túraqtylyghyna keri әser etu degen boljam bar. Ony qalay iske asyrary belgisiz. Áskery jolmen tәlibter qanday da bir jetistikke jete almasy anyq. Sebebi Tәjikstan ÚQShÚ qúramynda, oghan jasalghan shabuylgha úiym mýsheleri kóz júma qaramaydy. Ortalyq Aziya elderi de tәlibterdi Ortalyq Aziyada tayrandatyp qongha niyetti emes. Tәjikstanda Reseyding 7 myng sarbazy bar eng iri әskery bazasy baryn esepke alatyn bolsaq, endeshe tәlibterding Tәjikstangha ashyq soghys ashuy olar ýshin ólimmen ten. Ony tәlibter de jaqsy biledi. Sondyqtan da olar Dushanbege qysym jasaudyng basqa amalyn izdestireri anyq. Mysaly Tauly Badaqshannyng ortalyq biylikke degen narazylyghy artyp keledi. Dushanbe men Tauly Badaqshan arasynda kóktemde qaqtyghys bolyp, ondaghan adam qaza tapty. Mine, osynday narazylyqtar sәtinde aqparattyq shabuyl jasau amalyn jasauy mýmkin. Áleumettik jeliler arqyly biylikke qarsy kónil-kýidi kýsheytui de yqtimal. Dey-túra tәlibterding oghan resursy da, tәjiriybesi de az.

Tәjikstannyng óz ishinde biylikke degen narazylyq jyl ótken sayyn artyp keledi. Oghan sebepker elding ekonomikalyq jaghdayy men ony retteuge baylanysty biylikting qanday da bir reforma jýrgizuge qúlyqsyzdyghy. Rahmon Ortalyq Aziyada otyz jylgha juyq taqta otyrghan jalghyz basshy bolyp qaluda jәne ol jaqyn aralyqta biylikti úly Rustam Emomaliyge berui mýmkin. Ortalyq Aziyada úlyna taqty qaldyru tәjiriybesi bar. Týrkimenstan preziydenti solay etti. Búl halyqtyng narazylyghyn kýsheyteri anyq. Tәjikstan halqynyng basym bóligi enbek migranty bolyp kýn kóredi. Basym bóligi Reseyge baratyn. Alayda Resey-Ukraina soghysynyng saldarynan Reseyde birqatar júmys oryndary jabyldy, al migranttar basqa baghytty izdeuge, kóbi keri qaytugha mәjbýr boluda. Búl eldegi qarsylyqty arttyratyn kóptegen faktining biri ghana. Tәjikstanda 1992-1997 jyly azamat soghysynyng bolghanyn esten shygharmaugha tiyispiz. Soghys o basta әleumettik narazylyqtardan bastalyp, sony qandy qyrghyngha úlasqan edi. Artynsha oghan Aughanstannyng birqatar lankestik úiymdary da qatysyp, qan-qasap boldy.

Tәjikstanda jaghdaydyng túraqty boluyna mýddeli taraptyng biri Qytay. Qytay tәjik ekonomikasyna aitarlyqtay qarjy qúidy jәne onyng jemisin kóruge niyetti. "Aqsha tynyshtyqty sýiedi" formulasy boyynsha qyzmet etetin Qytay biyligi, tәlibterding әreketterin qúptamasy anyq.

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