Europalyq Odaq Reseyge qatysty sanksiyalardyng segizinshi paketin jariyalady. Osy paket ózin әreng ústap túrghan Resey ekonomikasyna nokaut soqqysy boluy mýmkin. Birshama faktorlardyng jiyntyghy qordalana bastady. Jәne ol bir kýni, tipti osy jana jylgha deyin mindetti týrde jarylady.

Osy sanksiya paketining eki auyr baby bar.

Birinshi baghyt. Resey múnayynyng baghasy limitteldi. Búl embargonyng (mýlde jauyp tastau) júmsaq týri. Kedey, ýshinshi әlem elderi sorlap qalmasyn dep, tolyq embargo negizilmedi. Spottyq naryqtarda Yurals baghasy barreline 40-60 dollardan aspauy tiyis jәne tenizben ýshinshi elderge tasymaldanghanda osy shart qadaghalanatyn bolady. Onyng aldynda Resey preziydenti Putin múnay limittelse, eshkimge eshtene satpaytynyn mәlimdegen bolatyn. Eshkimge eshtene satpau - Reseydi valutalyq týsimnen aiyrady.

Ekinshi baghyt. Resey azamattaryna Euroodaq kriptoәmiyandar ashugha, ústaugha tiym salyp otyr. Reseylikter shetelge aqsha audarudyn, aludyn, tabys tabudyng songhy kózinen airylmaq. Búghan deyin USDT olardyng songhy ýmiti bolyp kelgen edi. Endi 6 saghattyng ishinde olar Euroodaq elderinde ashylghan kriptoәmiyandaryn jauyp, odan aqshalaryn shygharyp aluy tiyis. Onyng ózi onay bolmaydy.

Euroodaq segizinshi paketten Resey ekonomikasy jylyna 7 milliard evro joghaltady degen pikirde.

Segizinshi paket kelmey túryp, taghy bir qúbylysqa nazar audarghan bolatynbyz. Reseyde de últtyq әl-auqat qory bar. Ol qor osy qyrkýiekte 777 milliard rubli joghaltqan. Qazir onyng kólemi 10,79 trillion rubli nemese 187,9 milliard dollar. Búdan alyp bolyp kórinetin Reseyding bar qorjyny bizding Últtyq qordan nebary 3 esege artyq ekenin kóruge bolady jәne onyng ózi ay sayyn qysqaruda.

Oghan qosa, Reseyding kelesi jylghy budjeti defisitti bolmaq. Resey songhy 10 jylda budjet profisiytine (tabys shyghynnan artyq) qol jetkizip jýrgen edi. Endi defisit aldaghy 2025 jylgha deyin sozylady dep boljanady jәne ony jabu ýshin Resey tek ishki naryqtan qaryz almaq. Syrttan oghan eshkim qaryz bermeydi.

Resey problemalarynyng alghashqy signalyn býgin Belarusi basshysy Lukashenkonyng auzynan estidik. Ol elde baghalardy ósiruge tiym saldy. Biraq naryq zany Lukashenkony tyndamaytyny anyq. Jәne bәrin kerisinshe isteytin bolady, al naryqtarda ajiotaj jýrmek. Belarus elinde inflyasiya 17 payyzdan asyp barady. Al Reseyde songhy 4-5 aida bayqalghan deflyasiya ayaqtalyp, qaytadan inflyasiya bastaldy.

Búl jaghdayda Reseyge rubli baghamyn qúldyratu tyghyryqtan shyghudyng bir amaly boluy mýmkin. Ekonomikalyq belsendilikting tómendeuine mobilizasiya әser etetin bolady. Kóptegen kompaniya qyzmetkerleri soghysqa shaqyrtu aldy, shamamen 500 mynnan astam júmysqa jaramdy erkek elden qashyp ketti jәne ózimen birge jighan-tergen rubliderin alyp ketti. Soghysqa barghandar sol uaqytqa kredit tólemeytin bolady, al ólgenderining kreditteri bank esebinen keshiriledi. Resey bankteri ýshin biylghy jyl auyr ayaqtalatyn týri bar.

Búl Qazaqstan ýshin Reseymen import/eksport operasiyalarynyng zandy qysqaruyna әkelip soqsa, Euraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaq tek qaghaz jýzinde júmys istemek. Bizge tek jaghdaydy baqylap otyru ghana búiyryp túr. Biraq aqyryn kýtpey, Reseyding azyq-týlik importyn Qytay, Ýndistan men Ózbekstan baghyttaryna qaray búra beru jón bolatyn siyaqty.

Aybar Oljaev

Abai.kz