Senbi, 23 Qarasha 2024
Janalyqtar 2765 0 pikir 16 Qyrkýiek, 2009 saghat 09:26

Ghadilbek Ákim. Ekonomikanyng túraqtala bastauy, daghdarystyng II tolqyny turaly boljamnyng negizsiz ekenin kórsetedi.

Býgingi kýni Qazaqstan, Resey jәne halyqaralyq búqaralyq aqparat qúraldarynda әlemdik ekonomikanyng birtindep jandana bastaghany, ósim nyshanynyng payda bolghany turaly jii aitylyp, jazylyp jýr. Daghdarys bastau alghan AQSh ekonomikasy bir jarym jyldan beri resessiya qalpynan shygha almay, búl eldegi júmyssyzdar sany 2008-shi jyly 2,6 mln. adamnan asty. Barak Obama әkimshiligi qabyldaghan jәne AQSh kongresining qoldauyna ie bolghan daghdarys saldarymen kýresu baghdarlamasy boyynsha, ekonomikany túraqtandyru, óndiristi jandandyru ýshin budjetten 787 mlrd. AQSh dollary bólindi. Obama әkimshiligi qabyldanghan baghdarlamanyng arqasynda 4 mln. adamgha jana júmys oryndaryn ashugha, júmyssyzdargha ótemaqy kólemin arttyrugha, elding jol-transport jýiesin qaytadan jóndeuge, jana tehnologiyalarmen balamaly quat kózderin damytugha, jalpy alghanda, AQSh ekonomikasyn jandandyrudan ýmitti. Atalghan qarjynyng bólinuine jәne baghdarlamanyng dúrys, oryndy atqaryluyna baylanysty AQSh ekonomikasy azdaghan bolsa da qayta qalypqa keluding nyshandaryn kórsetude. AQSh qarjy ministri Timoty Gaytnerding pikirinshe, el ekonomikasynyng tolyq qalpyna kelui turaly aitugha әli erte, alayda, AQSh qarjy instituttary, bankterding jaghdaylary dúrystala bastauyna baylanysty AQSh ýkimeti qarjy daghdarysy saldaryna qarsy sharalardyng keybir bóliginen endi bas tartuy mýmkin ekenin aityp otyr.

Býgingi kýni Qazaqstan, Resey jәne halyqaralyq búqaralyq aqparat qúraldarynda әlemdik ekonomikanyng birtindep jandana bastaghany, ósim nyshanynyng payda bolghany turaly jii aitylyp, jazylyp jýr. Daghdarys bastau alghan AQSh ekonomikasy bir jarym jyldan beri resessiya qalpynan shygha almay, búl eldegi júmyssyzdar sany 2008-shi jyly 2,6 mln. adamnan asty. Barak Obama әkimshiligi qabyldaghan jәne AQSh kongresining qoldauyna ie bolghan daghdarys saldarymen kýresu baghdarlamasy boyynsha, ekonomikany túraqtandyru, óndiristi jandandyru ýshin budjetten 787 mlrd. AQSh dollary bólindi. Obama әkimshiligi qabyldanghan baghdarlamanyng arqasynda 4 mln. adamgha jana júmys oryndaryn ashugha, júmyssyzdargha ótemaqy kólemin arttyrugha, elding jol-transport jýiesin qaytadan jóndeuge, jana tehnologiyalarmen balamaly quat kózderin damytugha, jalpy alghanda, AQSh ekonomikasyn jandandyrudan ýmitti. Atalghan qarjynyng bólinuine jәne baghdarlamanyng dúrys, oryndy atqaryluyna baylanysty AQSh ekonomikasy azdaghan bolsa da qayta qalypqa keluding nyshandaryn kórsetude. AQSh qarjy ministri Timoty Gaytnerding pikirinshe, el ekonomikasynyng tolyq qalpyna kelui turaly aitugha әli erte, alayda, AQSh qarjy instituttary, bankterding jaghdaylary dúrystala bastauyna baylanysty AQSh ýkimeti qarjy daghdarysy saldaryna qarsy sharalardyng keybir bóliginen endi bas tartuy mýmkin ekenin aityp otyr. Álemdik qarjy daghdarysynyn, jalpy dýniyejýzi qauymdastyghy ýshin osy uaqytqa deyin alyp kelgen shyghyny 10 trln. AQSh dollaryna baghalanuda. Osy tústa daghdarys saldarymen kýresu ýshin eng auqymdy budjetti jәne masshtabty baghdarlama qabyldaghan elderding aldynghy qataryn AQSh pen Úlybritaniya bastap keledi. AQSh daghdarys saldarymen kýresu ýshin 3,6 trln. AQSh dollaryn shyghyndasa, Úlybritaniya ózining IJÓ-ning 94%-y bolatyn 2,4 trln. AQSh dollaryn júmsap ýlgiripti. Jaqynda Halyqaralyq valuta qorynyng atqarushy diyrektory Dominik Stross-Kan, әlemdik ekonomikanyng jandanuy 2010-shy jyldyng alghashqy jarty jyldyghynda qalypqa kelui mýmkin dey kele, daghdarys әli de jalghasuda, sol sebepti onyng saldarymen kýresudi bir mezgil de toqtatpaghan dúrys deude. HVQ qyrkýiek aiynyng basynda әlem ekonomikasynyng damuy turaly jana boljamdaryn jariyalady, onda resmy emes mәlimetterge qaraghanda әlemdik IJÓ-ning aghymdaghy jyly 1,4%-dan 1,3%-gha qysqaratyny turaly jәne әlemdik ekonomikanyng 2010-shy jyly 2,5%-dan 2,9%-gha deyin ósetini turaly mәlimetter keltirilgen. Resey Federasiyasynyng ekonomika sektoryndaghy songhy mәlimetterge nazar salsaq, soltýstik kórshimizde songhy ailardan beri óndiris salasynda ay sayyn 1%-dyq ósim bayqaluda, sol sebepti Resey ýkimetindegiler aldaghy jyly federaldy budjet týsimi de molyghyraq bolady dep boljamdap otyr. Álemdik ekonomikanyng jәne Resey ekonomikasynyng az da bolsa da, ósim kórsetuine baylanysty reseylikter búrynghy әleumettik-ekonomikalyq, budjettik kiris boljamdaryn qayta qarauda jәne Resey preziydentining kómekshisi Arkadiy Dvorkovichting pikirinshe, eger ekonomikalyq ósim ósu nyshany jalghasatyn bolsa, shetelden qaryz, zaym aludy belgili bir dengeyge deyin tómendetemiz deude. Qazaqstan sekildi Resey de memleket budjetin qalyptastyruda әlemdik múnay, shiykizat eksportynyng baghasyna jiti nazar audaratyny belgili. Múnay baghasynyng әlemdik naryqta az da bolsa ósuine baylanysty, osy jyly Resey memlekettik budjeti qosymsha 0,5 trillion rublige tolyqpaq. Resey biyligindegiler jaghdaydyng jalpy jaqsaru, pozitivti belgiler kórsetuine qaramastan, ekonomikanyng tolyq túraqtauy turaly aitugha әli erte, soghan baylanysty, daghdarys saldarymen kýresu baghdarlamasymen sharalaryn tolyqtay jalghastyra beremiz dep mәlimdep otyr. Qazaqstandaghy jaghdaygha keletin  bolsaq, ýkimetting osy jyldyng basynan bastap qabyldaghan jalpy jәne nýkteli sharalary ekonomikanyng tehnikalyq resessiyagha ótuine jol bermegenimen qatar, makroekonomikalyq túraqtylyqtyng belgili bir dengeyden tómen týspeuine әserin bergeni mәlim. Sonymen qatar, Qazaqstan ekonomika jәne budjetti josparlau ministrining aituynsha, ótken jylghy mausym aiymen salystyrghanda, aghymdaghy jyldyng mausym aiynda ekonomikanyng ósui 1,4%-gha artqan eken. Qazaqstan daghdarys saldaryna qarsy sharalaragha Últtyq qordan el IJÓ-ning 14%-y  bolatyn somada, yaghny 19 mlrd. AQSh dollaryn júmsady. Ekonomikadagha ósim negizinen auylsharuashylyq salasynda bayqalyp, salanyng ósim kórsetkishi 2,7%-gha artypty. Aghymdaghy jyldyng qantar-tamyz ailarynda eldegi negizgi kapitalgha investisiya tartu 7,3%-gha artyp, barlyq salynghan investisiya kólemi 2 trln. 599,1 mlrd. tengeni qúrap otyr. Qazaqstan Respublikasy Statistika agenttigi jartyjyldyqtyng jasaghan әleumettik-ekonomikalyq  qorytyndysy boyynsha negizgi kapitalgha investisiya tartu ótken jyldyng osy kezenimen salystyrghanda 5,4%-gha artyq bolyp túr. Sonymen birge, elimizdegi ýlken qalalarda túrghyn ýy rynogi de ósim nyshanyn kórsetude. Qazaqstan Respublikasy enbek jәne halyqty әleumettik qorghau ministrligining mәlimetinshe, elde jol kartasy boyynsha 256 myng adamdy júmyspen qamtu kerek bolsa, aghymdaghy jyldyng tamyz aiynda sonyng 254 myny júmyspen qamtylghan, degenmen de búl san shyndyqqa qanshalyqty sәikes ekenin aitu qiyn. Jaqyn uaqytta Astanada 2010-2012-jyldargha arnalghan respublikalyq budjet jobasy qaraluy tiyis, osy túrghyda budjetting sapasy, negizdelui, josparlanuy sonymen qatar, oryndaluy qalay, qanday dengeyde bolatynyn uaqyt anyqtar. Aldaghy 2010-shy jyly el IJÓ-ning ósui 2,4%-dan 2014-shi jylgha tayau 3,9%-gha artady dep boljanuda. Qazaqstan ekonomika jәne budjettik josparlau ministrliginng boljauynsha, keler jyly respublika budjetining týsimi 3 trln. 189,6 mlrd. tenge shamasynda boluy mýmkin dep kýtilude, búl ótken jyldyng budjettik kirisinen shamamen 300 mlrd. tengege artyq eken. Jalpy alghanda, Qazaqstannyng daghdarys saldaryna qarsy baghdarlamasymen qabyldanyp jatyrghan sharalaryn sheteldik mamandar jaqsy baghalauda. Mәskeulik FBK auditorly-konsaltingtik kompaniyasynyng sarapshylary, Qazaqstannyng qantar aiynda qabyldaghan baghdarlamasy uaqytyly qabyldanghan jәne Reseydin, TMD-nyng basqa elderining baghdarlamalaryna qaraghanda, anaghúrlym jýielengen, barlyq sala boyynsha naqty oilastyrylghan degen sheshimge kelip otyr. Resey, Ukraina elderining daghdarys saldarymen kýresuge qarsy baghdarlamalary Qazaqstannyng baghdarlamasymen antidaghdarystyq sharalarymen salystyrghanda, effektiligi jaghynan birshama artta qaluda. Qazaqstannyng daghdarys saldaryna qarsy sharalary Reseyding ekonomika salasynda qabyldanghan sharalaryna qaraghanda, Qytaydyng el ekonomikasyn ishki súranystar arqyly arttyru, damytu jolyn tandaghangha úqsastau, deydi reseylik mamandar. 
Qazirgi kezde býkil әlem daghdarystan shyghu joldaryn izdep, qarjy jәne barlyq resurstaryn daghdaryspen kýresuge júmsap, sonyng nәtiyjesinde songhy jartyjyldyqta ekonomikada qozghalys, ósim belgileri payda bolyp kele jatyrghan kezde, «daghdarystyng ekinshi tolqyny bolady», «daghdarys endi kýshine endi», «daghdarystan shygha almaymyz», «daghdarys әli úzaq bolady» - degen pessimisttik keyiptegi pikirlermen boljamdar oryn aluda. AQSh Federaldyq rezervining búrynghy basshysy Alan Grinspenning pikirinshe, daghdarys qaytalanady, biraq ta, ol basqa keyipte kelui mýmkin deydi. Onyng payymdauynsha, kóp jyldyq ekonomikalyq ósimnen keyin bәribir týbinde daghdarys nemese toqyrau oryn aluy tiyis, sonymen qatar qarjy-ekonomikalyq daghdarystar biri-birine kóp úqsay bermeydi dep otyr, maman. Osynday túrghydaghy boljamdy Nobeli syilyghynyng laureaty Djon Stiglispen milliarder Djordj Soros ta aityp keledi. Grinspen, Stigliys, Soros sekildi әlemdik dengeydegi bedeldi qarjygerlerding boljamdary rastala ma, әlde búl tek pikir me, ony uaqyttyng ózi aiqyndar. Áriyne, әrtýrli pikirlermen boljamdardyng boluy oryndy, degenmen de, әlemdik ekonomikanyng az da bolsa ósim kórsetui, әlemning jәne Euroodaqtyng keybir memleketterining resessiya prosesinen bayau bolsa da, shygha bastauy, daghdarysqa qarsy baghdarlamalarmen birikken, ortaq ýilestiru júmystarynyng jýielene týsui, onyng ishinde Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng azdaghan ósimmen pozitivti belgiler kórsetui, jalpy alghanda jaghdaydyng onalyp kele jatyrghanyn anghartady.

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