Vashington Ukrainadaghy soghystyng tabighatyn әli de dúrys baghalamay otyr

AQSh preziydentining arnayy ókilderi Stiv Uitkoff pen Djared Kushnerding Mәskeu men Kiyevke jasaghan sapary soghysty toqtatugha qatysty naqty serpilissiz ayaqtaldy. Amerika sarapshysy Endru Mihtanyng pikirinshe, mәsele diplomatiyalyq әreketting nәtiyjesiz boluynda ghana emes. Eng basty problema – Vashingtonnyng Reseyding Ukrainagha qarsy soghysynyng shynayy tabighatyn әli de dúrys týsinbeuinde.

Búl turaly 19FortyFive basylymy jazady.

Uitkoff pen Kushner Mәskeude Resey preziydenti Vladimir Putinmen shamamen ýsh saghat kelissóz jýrgizdi. Odan keyin Kiyevke baryp, Ukraina preziydenti Vladimir Zelenskiymen birneshe saghat sóilesti. AQSh tarapy soghysty toqtatugha baghyttalghan jana úsynystaryn tanystyrghanymen, taraptar atysty toqtatu jóninde ortaq mәmilege kele almady.

Mәsele – jay ghana territoriya ýshin talas emes

Endru Mihtanyng pikirinshe, Vashingtonnyng negizgi qateligi – Resey men Ukraina arasyndaghy soghysty kәdimgi aumaqtyq dau retinde qarastyruy.

Shyn mәninde, Donbastyng eki tarap ýshin de strategiyalyq manyzy әldeqayda teren.

Ukraina ýshin búl aimaqtaghy qorghanys shepterin saqtau – tek belgili bir territoriyany ústap qalu mәselesi emes, memleketting qauipsizdigi men ómirshendigine tikeley qatysty bolyp keletin basty faktor. Sarapshynyng payymdauynsha, búl pozisiyalardyng Ukraina ýshin joghaluy Resey armiyasyna Dnepr baghytyna, odan әri Ukrainanyng ortalyq bóligine qaray jyljugha mýmkindik berui mýmkin.

Al Kremli ýshin Donbastan bas tartu әskery ghana emes, sayasy túrghydan da auyr saldargha әkelui yqtimal. Óitkeni Resey Ukrainadaghy soghysqa orasan zor adam resursyn, qarjy men әskery tehnikany júmsady. Osynday shyghyndardan keyin Mәskeuding negizgi әskery maqsattarynyng birinen bas tartuy Resey qoghamyndaghy soghys turaly resmy payymdaugha soqqy bolyp tiii mýmkin.

Putin soghysty sozugha dayyn ba?

Mihtanyng baghalauynsha, Putin qazirgi jaghdayda ózin birtindep jeniske jaqyndap kelemin dep esepteydi.

Sondyqtan Mәskeuding kelissózderge qatysuy soghysty dereu toqtatugha dayyn ekenin bildirmeydi. Resey Ukrainagha qarsy әskery qysymdy jalghastyryp, sonyng ishinde energetikalyq infraqúrylymgha soqqylaryn kýsheytip otyr. Kremliding esebi – aldaghy qys mausymyn Ukraina ýshin barynsha auyr ótkizu arqyly Kiyevke sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq qysymdy arttyru.

Osy túrghydan alghanda, Uitkoff pen Kushnerding saparynyng basty nәtiyjesi kelisimning jasaluy emes, kelisimge jetuding qanshalyqty qiyn ekenin Vashingtonnyng taghy bir mәrte týsinui boluy mýmkin.

Mihta:

«Eger Kushner men Uitkofftyng sapary qanday da bir nәtiyje berdi desek, ol – soghystyng taghy bir jylgha, tipti odan da úzaq uaqytqa sozyluy yqtimal ekeni turaly aiqyn belgini anghartyp qana qoydy».

Atysty toqtatu bitimi – túraqty beybitshilik emes

Amerika sarapshysy Vashingtonnyng taghy bir әlsiz túsyna nazar audarady: AQSh-tyng Shyghys Europadaghy úzaq merzimdi qauipsizdik strategiyasy jetkilikti dengeyde qalyptaspaghan.

Óitkeni atysty toqtatu men túraqty beybitshilikting arasy jer men kóktey.

Eger soghys uaqytsha toqtaghanymen, Reseyding qaytadan әskery kýsh qoldanuyna tosqauyl bolatyn qauipsizdik tetikteri jasalmasa, múnday bitim kelesi qaqtyghysqa deyingi ýziliske ghana ainaluy mýmkin.

Sondyqtan Mihta Vashingtongha NATO-nyng soltýstik jәne shyghys qanatyndaghy memlekettermen әskeriy-sayasy yntymaqtastyqty kýsheytudi úsynady. Onyng oiynsha, Reseyding agressiyalyq sayasatynyng odan әri kenenin tejeuge qabiletti aimaqtyq qauipsizdik jýiesin qalyptastyru qajet.

Týiin

Uitkoff pen Kushnerding saparynyng nәtiyjesiz ayaqtaluy Ukrainadaghy soghystyng diplomatiyalyq jolmen tez sheshile salatyn qarapayym dau emestigin kórsetedi.

Búl jerde mәsele tek Donbastyng kimge tiyesili bolatynynda emes. Mәsele – Reseyding Ukrainagha qatysty strategiyalyq maqsattarynda, Ukrainanyng memlekettik qauipsizdiginde jәne Europanyng bolashaq qauipsizdik arhiytekturasynda jatyr.

Sondyqtan Vashingtonnyng aldynda eki týrli mindet túr. Birinshisi – soghysty toqtatudyng diplomatiyalyq jolyn tabu. Ekinshisi – soghys toqtaghannan keyin Reseyding qayta kýsh qoldanuyna jol bermeytin qauipsizdik jýiesin qalyptastyru.

Eger tap osy ekinshi mәsele sheshilmese, alghashqy kelisim uaqytsha ghana sipatta qaluy mýmkin.

Osy sebepti Uitkoff–Kushner missiyasynyng basty sabaghy – beybitshilikke qol jetkizu ýshin tek Mәskeumen kelissóz jýrgizu jetkiliksiz. Vashington Ukraina qauipsizdigin ghana emes, Reseyding odan әri ekspansiyasyn tejeuge qabiletti býkil Shyghys Europanyng qauipsizdik modelin qayta qaraugha mәjbýr boluy mýmkin.

Demek, qazirgi diplomatiyalyq tyghyryq soghystyng ayaqtalugha jaqyndaghanyn emes, kerisinshe onyng strategiyalyq sipaty Vashington oilaghannan әldeqayda kýrdeli ekenin anghartady.

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