Putin Batys aliyansyna qarsy qyrghy qabaq soghys jariyalaghan edi. Ol soghys tarihta Ekinshi Dýnie jýzilik Qyrghy qabaq soghysy degen ataumen kirgen bolatyn. Ol turaly biz jazghanbyz [1]. Putin ózin әlem tarihynda Cherchili men Ruzvelit pen qatar qoyghandy jón kóredi. Batys elder baspasózi jylma-jyl ony batys elder jurnaldarynyng eng bedeldi sayasatkeri retinde baghalaghanyn asa rahattana oqidy.

Desek te, Putinning 2007 jylghy Germaniyanyng Munhen qalasyndaghy sózi әlemdi bir shoshytty. IYә, Putinning sol sózi Uinston Cherchiliding 1946 Fultondaghy (AQSh-tyng shaghyn qalasy) aitqan sózimen, yaghny alghashqy qyrghiy-qabaq soghysty jariyalaumen teng edi. Putin búl oiyn Batys elderding baspasózine jәne Resey teledidaryna arnap keyinirek tәptishtep birneshe ret aityp berdi. Mәselenki, Resey Preziydenti Vladimir Putin Valday forumyndaghy sózinde AQSh-ty jәne onyng geosayasatyn ayausyz synap, «osydan bylay eshbir manyzdy sayasy әreket Reseysiz sheshilmeu kerek jәne sheshilmeydi» dedi. Batys elderin Resey aldynda kinәli ekenin, Reseyding geosayasy mýddelerimen sanaspaytynyn aityp, endi oghan jol berilmeytinin jetkizdi. Putinning búlay ashynyp sóileuine Batys elderi aliyansynyng Reseyge (Resey Ukrainanyng Qyrym jartyaralyn basyp alyp, sol memleketting shyghys ólkelerinde gibridtik, әskery operasiyalaryn bastaghan bolatyn) ekonomikalyq sanksiyalar saluy sebep boldy [2]. Putinning osy sózi men sayasaty Reseyding әr orysynyng jýregine shoq saldy. Qarapayym orystyng ruhyn kóterdi. «Qashanghy biz orys Batys elderining aitqanyn istep, olardyng aldynda tizerlep túruymyz kerek. Jetedi, osydan bylay óz mýddelerimizdi batyl qorghaytyn bolamyz» degen uәjder aityla bastady.

Putinning Batysqa qarsy asqaq sóileuining birneshe qisyny bar edi. Batys dәrmensiz. Batys tym beybitshil jәne ymyrashyl, Resey siyaqty quatty әskery yadrolyq qaruy bar memleketke qarsy sharalargha bara almaydy. Onyng aldynda Resey Pridnestrovieni Moldaviyadan bólip alghan, Qarabahty Ázirbayjannan tartyp alyp Armeniyagha bergende, Batys aliyansy salqynqandylyq bayqatyp Reseyge tek eskertu jasaumen shektelgen-di. 2008 jyly Resey Gruziyagha shabuyl jasady. Batys aliyansy taghy da búl shaghyn memleketke aitarlyqtay arasha bola almady [3]. Batys elder aliyansy Reseyding gazy men múnayyna tәueldi edi, Batys derjavalar birlestigi Reseyding de mýddelerimen eseptesken jón bolar dep Moldaviya, Ázirbayjan, Gruziyanyng territoriyalyq tútastyghy ýshin konfrontasiyadan tartynghan edi. Biraq Reseyding úlyderjavalyq sanasy qozdaghan ýstine qozday berdi. Orys halqy Putinning ekspansiyanizmin birauyzdan qoldady. Endigi kezek Ukrainagha tóndi. Resey militarizmi Ukrainagha auyz saldy. Biraq Ukrainanyng jóni bólek edi. Batys elderi Ukrainagha ekonomikalyq jәne diplomatiyalyq qoldau jasady. Solay Ukraina Qyrym, Donesk pen Luganskiden aiyrylsa da agressorgha qarsy túra aldy. Resey imperiyashyldary aitqanday «Novorossiya jospary jәne Orys әlemi» jýzege aspay, qantarylyp qaldy. Ukrainadaghy «gibridtik soghys» pәlendey sәtti bolmay túr. Esesine Batys elder sanksiyalary Reseydi qysyp barady.

Qosh. Putin osy jaghdaylarda ózin daryndy taktiyk, biraq nashar strateg retinde kórsetti. Qazaq diplomatiyasy sheber qyrynan kórinip biz aman qaldyq. Desek te uaqyt ótken sayyn Reseyding ishki jaghdayy nasharlap keledi. Eng aldymen Resey Evraziyalyq ekonomikalyq odaqtastaryna valuta jәne tauar ekspansiyasyn jasamaq boldy. Resey rubli qúldyrap jatqanda olar óz tauarlarymen Qazaqstan men Belorussiya naryqtaryn qamtamasyz etpekshi boldy. Búl sayasat, yaghny Qazaqstangha Resey tauar ekspansiyasy 1998 jәne 2009 jyldary jasalghan bolatyn, solay biz óz tauar óndirushilerimizdi bәsendetken edik. Ótken jyly tól valutamyzdyng baghamyn mólsheri 85% tómendetuge mәjbýr boldyq. Búl jaghday qolaysyz bolsa da óz tauar óndirushilerimizding mýddesinen shyqty. Sol siyaqty tengenin baghamyn qisynsyz ústap túru barlyq últtyq qordaghy qarjynyng tausyluyna әkelmek edi.

Qazaqstannyng ótken jyldardaghy syrtqy jәne ishki sayasaty negizien dúrys bolghangha úqsaydy. Biraq, DSÚ-gha tym jay kiru, ekonomikalyq reformalardy kesheuildetu (qúrylymdyq reformalardy menzeymiz), sot reformasy, jergilikti jerdi basqaru jýiesin ontaylandyru siyaqty mәselelerde kesheuildep qaldyq. Jýzege asqan QR Azamattyq kodeksi, memlekettik sektordy qysqartudy (mýmkin 20% deyin) kerektigin elbasynyng ózi talay ret aitty. Qazaqstannyng sayasatynyng basty maqsaty – elimizding egemendigin saqtap qalu, túrmys dengeyin ekonomikalyq daghdarys kezinde meyilinshe tómendetpeu. Reseymen konfrontasiyagha týspeu. Al Reseyge kelsek olardyng reforma jasaytyn týri joq. Resey barlyq kórshilirimen araz, biraq orystyng 95% (egerde sosiologiyalyq zertteulerding aitqany ras bolsa) Putinning býgingi sayasatyn qoldaytyn kórinedi. Solay desek te olarda da 2015 jyly birqatar әleumettik jәne ekonomikalyq narazylyqtar bayqaldy. Inflyasiya men rubliding qúlauy qarapayym orystyng qarjysyn ortalandyrdy. Endi shet eldik tauarlardy alu kóp qymbatqa týsedi. Kedeyler men kembaghal jandar sany kóbeydi. Olardyng deni – tiyisti ailyghyn ala almay jýrgen múghalimder men dәrigerler (jergilikti budjetter birqatar ólkelerde auyr jaghadayda). Ortalyq budjet ózderining shyghyndaryn últtyq qordan alyp otyr, biraq rezervtik jәne últtyq qor da ortalynyp keledi. 2017 jyly ol qorlar tausyluy yqtimal. Sol siyaqty dalineboyshikter (auyrjýkti avtomobiliderge qosymsha jol salyghy salynghan bolatyn) narazylyghy ótkenin aita ketu kerek. Olardyng beybit narazylyghy negizinen jenispen ayatalyp keledi. Reseyding birqatar últtyq respublikalarynda da narazylyq bayqalady. Ashyq narazylyq bildirip otyrghan Tatarstan men Sheshenstan. Olar ózderining ólkelik ekonomikalyq egemendigin respublikalyq sayasiy-mәdeny egemendikke ainaldyrugha tyrysa bastady. Basqa etnostardyng da últtyq sanasy oyanyp, orysty demografiyalyq jolmen tyqsyryp keledi. Mәselenki, biraz jyl ótken son, Tuvada orys qalmaytyn siyaqty, Yakutiyada da orys ýlesi qúldyrap barady. Jastar arasyndaghy últaralyq tóbeles kórinisteri beynelengen taspalar internet arqyly tarauda, olardyng astyna jazylghan kommenteriylerden adam shoshidy. Jergilikti tatar últshyldarynyng ana tilin qorghau әreketteri, respublikalyq Preziydent status atauyn saqtap qalu qozghalysy, Týrkiyamen mәdeny jәne biznestik baylanystargha shek qoymau talaby aktualdy. Yakutiyada últshyldyq baghyttaghy ekologiyalyq qozghalys kýsheyip keledi, yakutterding ýlesin basshylar korpusy arasynda kóteru iydeyasy kóp kóteriledi; Buryatiyada orystardy kóshirip әkelu sayasatyna narazylyq bar. Mәskeu búryn bas qatyrmay, jergilikti halyqpen sanaspay, әkimshilik jolmen barlyq mәselerdi onay sheshetin, qazir olay isteu qiyndap barady, az últtar kóshege shyghyp narazylyq bildirui yqtimal. Beybit týrde damityn týrli últ-azattyq qozghalystar payda boluda. Búryn az últtar elitasy últtyq talaptardan aulaq jýretin, endi últtyq elita últtyq talaptardy erttep mingen siyaqty. Resey sayasy elitasynyng bir toby ózderine salynghan shet elderge shyqpau turaly shekteulerge narazy. Olar әzirshe biylikke batyl talap qoyghan joq.

Rekreasiyalyq narazylyq. Býgingi tanda orystar Egiypetke (Mysyr eli), Týrkiyagha bara almaytyn boldy. 2000-shy jyldary Resey turfirmalarynyng jer sharynda aparmaytyn eli, orystyng demalyp, sayrandamaytyn jeri joq siyaqty edi. Bәrinen de orys kóp sharlaytyn memleketter Turkiya men Egiypet edi. Endi ol marshruttar orys ýshin jabyldy. Turfirmalar shyghyngha úshyrap, orysqa, Putin sayasatyna renjuli.

Tútynushylyq narzylyq. Songhy jyldary orys jemegen tagham qalmaghan siyaqty edi. Endi Batys elderinde óndiriletin syrlar , atlantikalyq seldi, taghy da basqa tauarlar orys dastarhanynan ghayyp boldy. Búl da bolsa ortang qol orystyng Putin sayasatyna kónilin qaldyrady. Resey baspasózi «Perestroykagha», yaghny «Qayta qúru» men «Jәriyalylyqqa» bet aldy. KSRO daghy «Perestroyka» men «Jәriyalylyq» negizinen eki-aq baspasózden bastaldy – ol «Ogonek» jurnaly men «Moskovskie novostiy» gazeti edi. Býgingi tanda – radio «Eho Moskvy», telekanal «Dojdi», «Sobesedniyk», «Snob.ru», «Slon.ru» t.b.s.s. syny kózqarastaghy basylymdar kóp. Olar Reseydegi jaghdaydy obektivti jәne syny sipattaydy. Biylik olardy qadaghalay almay keledi. Sonymen, oiymyzdyng týiinin aitsaq Putin Gorbachevting basqa bir týri. Putin býgingi kýnning Staliyni emes. Gorbachev bayqús ózi demokrat, ózi impershik edi, Putin de sol kýige týsip keledi, aqparattyq qoghamda aqparatty tii mýmkin bolmay túr. Reseydegi baspasózding taraluyn saralasaq «Perestroyka», yaghny «Qayta qúru» men «Jariyalylyq» bastaldy demekpiz. Bizding payymdauymyzsha búl ýrdis 10-17 aida shynyna jetedi. Reseyde búl baghyt sayasy daghdarys pen Reseyding ydyrauymen ayaqtalady. Qazaqstan tynys alyp, demokratiyalyq zayyrly memleket qúrugha taghy bir shans alady.

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1. Azimbay Galy Novaya mirovaya «holodnaya voyna». altyn-orda.kz 13 oktyabrya 2013; openrussia.org 18.12.2015; Azimbay Galy Itogy Pervoy mirovoy "Holodnoy voyny". Nachalo Vtoroy mirovoy "Holodnoy voyny": bitva za Ukrainu.08.02.2014 centrasia.ru 2. Valdayskaya rechi Putina. Osnovnye tezisy http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2071341 3. Ázimbay Ghaly Orystyng bas auruy qazaqqa júqpay ma? Osy tústa últ pen elita birligi kerek 05.01.2016 qamshy.kz; ult.kz ; openrussia.org;

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