Batys elderi ýsti-ýstine sanksiya salyp, Reseydi baylap-matap jatyr. Reseyde ekonomikalyq jaghday nasharlap keledi. Reseyding ekonomikalyq, әleumettik jaghdayynyng tómendeui 2014 jyly bastalyp, keyingi jyldary tym kýrdelenip ketti. Resey orystary: «Qyrym – orys jeri, Qyrymdy ózimizge qaytardyq» dep mәz. Olar: «Qara su iship, qara nan jesek te Qyrymdy Ukrainagha qaytarmaymyz, barlyq qiyndyqqa tózemiz» dep otyr.

Resey basshysy Putinning qatardaghy orystar arasyndaghy abyroyy óte joghary. Putin óz elindegi orystarynyng imperiyalyq pighylyn tap basyp taba bildi. Qarapayym orystar Reseyding әlemdik naryqtaghy róli 2 payyzdan aspaytynyn oilap otyrghan joq. Olar Batys qauymdastyghynyng Reseydi tyqsyru sayasaty úzaq merzim Reseyge tehnologiyalyq, finanstyq jetispeushilik pen mesheulik tughyzatynyn oilap otyrghan joq.

Resey býgingi kýni eki maydanda soghysyp jatyr. Eki soghys ta aldymen ekonomikalyq jәne adam shyghynyna әkeledi. Onyng ýstine basyp alghan territoriyalardy asyrap otyr. Pridnestrovie, Gruziyadan tartyp alghan Osetiya men Abhaziya jәne Belorussiya. Belorussiyany Resey jaulanghan joq, biraq búl el jylda Reseyden 3 mlrd. $ qarjy alady. Ázirshe Resey orysy búl shyghyndardy oryndy dep esepteydi. Biraq, búl oidyng ózgeretin uaqyty alys emes.

Bolashaqta Reseyde ne boluy mýmkin?

Birinshi ssenariy boyynsha: Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghystan jenilgennen keyin qalyptasady. Biraq, Putin úzaq merzim ishinde Reseydi tiyanaqty týrde basqarady, biraq tehnologiyalyq, әleumettik, ekonomikalyq jaghynan algha jylju bolmaydy. Eger de múnay baghasy qatty kóterilse, Putinning jaghdayy qazirgi jaghdaydan tәuirleu de boluy mýmkin. Dese de Reseyding basty qarsylasy bolyp otyrghan batys múnay baghasyn qalayda ósirmey tejep qalugha tyrysary haq.

Ekinshi ssenariy boyynsha: Búl jaghday da Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilgennen keyin qalyptasady. Putin óz taghyna orynbasar tauyp, Resey biyligining júmsaq transformasiyalyq tranzit jolyn tabady. Sol tranzitting oryndaushysy Medvedev, Matviyenko, ne basqa býreu boluy mýmkin.

Ýshinshi ssenariy boyynsha: Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilgennen keyin qalyptasady. Resey biyligine aliternativalyq sayasatker kelui mýmkin. Ol biylikke radikaldyq jolmen kelui әbden mýmkin. Biraq, biylikke radikaldyq jolmen kelgen túlghanyng  Resey ýshin sәtti, ne sәtsiz bolatynyn boljau qiyn.

a) Meninshe, A.Navalinyy jappay narazylyqty paydalanyp biylikke kelui mýmkin. Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilgennen keyin qalyptasady. Batys onayshylyqpen Reseyge salghan sanksiyalardy alyp tastamaydy. Resey imperiyalyq pozisiyadan taymaydy, biraq naryqtyq qatynastardy sәl tejeydi.

b) Resey kommuniysi G.Zuganov biylikke kelui mýmkin. Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilisinen keyin qalyptasady. Batys onayshylyqpen Reseyge salghan sanksiyalardy alyp tastamaydy. Resey imperiyalyq pozisiyadan taymaydy, biraq naryqtyq qatynastardy qatty tejeydi.

v) V.Jirinovskiy partiyasy biylikke kelui mýmkin ekenin de joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilisinen keyin qalyptasady. Búlay bola qalghan jaghdayda da batys onayshylyqpen Reseyge salghan sanksiyalardy alyp tastamaydy. Resey imperiyalyq pozisiyadan taymaydy, búl partiya naryqtyq qatynastardy tejemeydi.

g) Resey Batys elderining Uaqytsha protektoratyna týsip, sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq janghyru jolyna týsedi. Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilisinen keyin qalyptasady.

Tórtinshi ssenariy boyynsha: Putin әskery tónkeris arqyly taqtan tany mýmkin. Búl jaghday Reseyding Ekinshi qyrghy qabaq soghysynan jenilisinen keyin qalyptasady. Múnday jaghdayda birqatar әskery top mýsheleri tónkeris arqyly biylikke keledi:

a) Generaldar men polkovnikter tónkerisi. Býlikshilder әskery – óndiristik keshenmen baylanysty. Olar tek tәueldi sayasatkerdi biylikke qoyyp, uaqytsha әskery jaghday ornatyp, jana Preziydent saylauyn jariyalaydy.

b) Generaldar men polkovnikter tónkerisi. Býlikshilder әskery – óndiristik keshenmen baylanysty. Olar tek tәueldi sayasatkerdi atqaru biylikke qoyyp, Áskery Kenes ornatyp jana Preziydent saylauyn jariyalap әskery adamdy Preziydenttikke saylaydy.

v) Generaldar men polkovnikter tónkerisi. Býlikshilder әskery – óndiristik keshenmen baylanyssyz. Olar biylikke demokratiyalyq sayasatkerdi qoyyp jana Preziydent saylauyn demokratiyalyq jolmen jýrgizedi.

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