Qazaqstandaghy Monarhiyalyq Kapital jýiesining evolusiyasy (jalghasy)
5. 5-shi kezen. Qazirgi uaqyttan bastap 2012 jylgha deyin
Endi Qazaqstandaghy dollardyng jalghyz kózi, shiykizattan týsetin tabys bolyp qaldy. Olay bolsa Qazaqstandaghy múnay satudan kelgen aqshany barlyq Qazaqstangha bóletin adam is jýzinde eldi týgeldey ózi qamtamasyz etedi degen sóz. Mysalmen týsindireyik. Biz tútynatyn ónimning 85 payyzy - kiyim, elektronika, avtokólik, qúral-jabdyqtar, jihaz, qúrylys materialdary jәne t.b. Qazaqstanda óndirilmeydi.
Olar bizding elge qalay kelgen? Biz búlardyng barlyghyn dollargha satyp aldyq. Al osynshama dollardy biz qaydan aldyq? Biz búl dollardy múnay satudan alyp otyrdyq. Mine, osy múnaydan týsetin tabysty baqylap otyrghan adam әr dәiim Qazaqstangha osy tauarlardy syrttan әkeluge qansha dollar júmsaugha dayyn ekenin sheshedi. Osylaysha, biz dýkennen teledidar satyp alghanda, satushygha tengemen beremiz, ol óz kezegimen sol tengeni teledidardy shet elden alyp kelgen importshy kompaniyasyna jiberedi. Búdan әri importshy kompaniya Últtyq bankke baryp, tengeni dollargha aiyrbastaydy da, óz eline dollarmen jiberedi. Últtyq Bankke sol aiyrbastaghan dollarlar múnay satqannan kelip týsedi. Osylaysha, biz óz shiykizatymyzdy teledidargha aiyrbastaymyz. Últtyq bankke shiykizattan týsetin dollardy qanday mólsherde bóletinin Monarhiyalyq kapital sheshedi. Sol mólsherge tәueldi bola otyryp, biz kóp teledidar nemese nóli teledidar satyp ala alamyz.
5. 5-shi kezen. Qazirgi uaqyttan bastap 2012 jylgha deyin
Endi Qazaqstandaghy dollardyng jalghyz kózi, shiykizattan týsetin tabys bolyp qaldy. Olay bolsa Qazaqstandaghy múnay satudan kelgen aqshany barlyq Qazaqstangha bóletin adam is jýzinde eldi týgeldey ózi qamtamasyz etedi degen sóz. Mysalmen týsindireyik. Biz tútynatyn ónimning 85 payyzy - kiyim, elektronika, avtokólik, qúral-jabdyqtar, jihaz, qúrylys materialdary jәne t.b. Qazaqstanda óndirilmeydi.
Olar bizding elge qalay kelgen? Biz búlardyng barlyghyn dollargha satyp aldyq. Al osynshama dollardy biz qaydan aldyq? Biz búl dollardy múnay satudan alyp otyrdyq. Mine, osy múnaydan týsetin tabysty baqylap otyrghan adam әr dәiim Qazaqstangha osy tauarlardy syrttan әkeluge qansha dollar júmsaugha dayyn ekenin sheshedi. Osylaysha, biz dýkennen teledidar satyp alghanda, satushygha tengemen beremiz, ol óz kezegimen sol tengeni teledidardy shet elden alyp kelgen importshy kompaniyasyna jiberedi. Búdan әri importshy kompaniya Últtyq bankke baryp, tengeni dollargha aiyrbastaydy da, óz eline dollarmen jiberedi. Últtyq Bankke sol aiyrbastaghan dollarlar múnay satqannan kelip týsedi. Osylaysha, biz óz shiykizatymyzdy teledidargha aiyrbastaymyz. Últtyq bankke shiykizattan týsetin dollardy qanday mólsherde bóletinin Monarhiyalyq kapital sheshedi. Sol mólsherge tәueldi bola otyryp, biz kóp teledidar nemese nóli teledidar satyp ala alamyz.
Biz osy mәseleni týsingennen keyin ghana, bizding eldegi bolyp jatqan ýderister aiqyn jәne boljamaly bola bastaydy.
1. Paraqorlyqpen bolyp jatqan kýres týsinikti bolyp túr
Búryn bay sheneulikter kapitalisterding aqshalarynnyng bir bóligin óz qaltasyna sýngitip otyrdy. Biraq sol aqshanyng kóbi shet eldegi bankterden kelgen aqsha ekenin biz týsinuimiz kerek. 2007- shi jyldan bastap, bankterde aqsha qalmady. Monarhiyalyq Kapital iyeligindegi múnaydan týsetin tabystar ghana qaldy. Sәikesinshe, endi budjetti tonaushylar Monarhiyalyq Kapitaldyng qaltasynan aqsha alyp otyr degen sóz. Sóitip ózge taptardyng kýn kóris qarjaty azaya bastaydy, búl degeniniz, Monarhiyalyq Kapitaldy últ qoldau bazasynyng jәne elding túraqtylyghynyng azangyna әkelip әleumettik jarylysqa alyp keledi degen sóz. Sondyqtan qazirgi kezdegi jemqorlyqpen bolyp jatqan kýres kompaniyasy, shynayy qúbylys dep qarau kerek.
2. Importtyq tauarlargha kóterilgen baj salyqtary oryndy bolyp túr
Kedendik sayasattaghy ózgerister, importtyq tauarlargha baghany ósirip, dollargha degen súranysty azaytady. Búl dollarlardy Monarhiyalyq kapital óz qaltasynan shygharyp otyrghanyn úmytpauymyz kerek.
3. Monopolistterding baghany kóterui úghymdy bolyp túr
Ártýrli kommunaldyq tarifterding tólemi ósken sayyn ekonomikadaghy tenge massasy azayady. Soghan sәikes, halyqtyng qolyndaghy tengesi azayyp, importtyq tauarlardy satyp alatyn tenge bolmaghandyqtan, dollardyng súranysy da tómendeydi.
Kelesi keltirilgen keste, 2007 jyldan bastap bankter ekonomikagha aqsha qúidy toqtatqanyn kórsetedi. Endi múnaydan kelgen aqsha jalghys tabys kózi bolyp qaldy. Al bankter tek qana múnaydan kelgen aqshany júmsap óz nesiyelerin jamap otyrdy.
|
Jyly |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
Múnaydyng eksporty |
$32,733,462,800 |
$41,681,291,800 |
$31,819,561,200 |
$38,653,500,000 |
|
sheteldikterdin alatyn diviydendteri |
$11,245,000,000 |
$17,192,000,000 |
$10,224,000,000 |
$13,388,000,000
|
|
múnaydyng tolyq ózindik qúny salyqty qosqanda |
$11,296,750,000 |
$11,609,190,000 |
$13,915,260,000 |
$13,915,260,000
|
|
Últtyq qorgha bólingen aqsha |
$6,826,000,000 |
$6,408,000,000 |
$(3,345,000,000) |
$5,000,000,000
|
|
Qazaqstan ekonomikasyna ene alatyn múnaydan alynghan erkin aqsha |
$3,365,712,800 |
$6,472,101,800 |
$11,025,301,200 |
$6,350,240,000
|
|
múnaydan alynghan erkin aqsha + múnaydan kelgen salyq |
$7,545,510,300 |
$10,767,502,100 |
$16,173,947,400 |
$11,498,886,200
|
|
Banktermen qúiylghan aqsha |
-$6,725,000,000 |
-$9,133,000,000 |
-$3,969,000,000 |
-$7,939,000,000 |
Al shaghyn jәne orta kәsipkerlikke Monarhiyalyq kapitaldyng qam isteushiligi osylaysha týsindiriledi:
1. Shaghyn jәne orta biznes kapitalynyng kólemi Monarhiyalyq kapitalgha qaraghanda әlde qayda az, sondyqtan olar onyng biyligine qauipti emes.
2. Eger shaghyn jәne orta biznes kapitalyn óndiriske baghyttasaq, onda importtyq tauarlardy jergilikti tauarlarmen auystyru arqyly Monarhiyalyq Kapitaldyng tabysynan bóletin dollargha degen súranysty azaytugha bolady.
Dәl osydan Monarhiyalyq kapital kәsipkerlikke kedergi keltiretin bay-sheneunikterding «qolynan úryp» otyryp, kәsipkerlikke baghyttalghan әkimshilik kedergilerdi qysqartyp, jazalaudaghy izgilendiru engizedi.
Monarhiyalyq Kapital orta jәne shaghyn kapitalisterge aqyryndap arqa sýieu arqyly, bay-sheneunikterden bas tarta bastady. Biraq, Monarhiyalyq Kapital orta jәne shaghyn kapitalisterge tolyghymen arqa sýiemeydi. Monarhiyalyq kapital qoldaudyng bir bóligin óz biyligin aqshagha ainaldyrghan bay-sheneunikterden alady. Al búl aqshalardy bay-sheneunikter әrtýrli kәsiporyndargha ainaldyrghany anyq. Birinshiden, osy bay-sheneunikterding kәsiporyndary ózge bay-sheneunikterding az da bolsa qyspaghynda bolady. Ekinshiden, olar zeynetkerlikke ketkende, oryndaryna keletin jas jәne ash bay-sheneulikter sol әkimshilikting atalghan kedergilerin qoldanyp, olardyng iyeligindegi barlyq mýlikti tartyp aluy mýmkin ekendigin biledi. Sondyqtan bay-sheneunikter endi ózderining ornyn basatyn sheneunikterden qauiptenip, jeke menshiktegi betsiz qúqyqtyng búzushylyghyna jol bermeydi.
Qazaqstandaghy dәl osy kezdegi negizgi taptardyng jaghdayy
1. Monarhiyalyq Kapital
2010 jylgha taman Monarhiyalyq Kapital aqshany shoghyrlandyratyn sektorlardyng barlyghyn basyp tastap, óz qaramaghyna qaratyp aldy. Búl Qazaqstandaghy Monarhiyalyq Kapitaldyng damuynyng eng jogharghy shegi bolmaq. Onyng bolashaqtaghy odan әri jogharylauy bizding tabighy baylyqtarymyzdy iyelenetin iri transúlttyq kompaniyalardyng aumaghyna jeteleydi.
Kelesi kesteni karap kóreyik, «Bizdegi múnaydyng iyesi kim?». Osy kestede 2008 jylghy maghlúmattar berilgen. Búl kestede ken oryndarynyn atauy, olardyng qory, kýnine óndiretin múnay kólemi, mýlik iyesimen onyng aksiyalarynyng payyz kólemi kórsetilgen.
|
Ken orny |
Qory mlrd. barreli |
Kýnine óndiretin barreli kólemi |
Mýlik iyesi |
% |
|
Abay |
2,8 |
|
QazMúnayGaz Stat Oil |
|
|
Aqtobe Múnay Gaz |
1,17 |
116 600 |
CNPC |
88 |
|
Darhan |
11 |
|
CNPC QazMúnayGaz |
|
|
Egizqara |
0,2 |
|
LG |
|
|
Emba |
0,5 |
56 000 |
QazMúnayGaz MOL |
51 49 |
|
Isatay |
1,75 |
|
- |
|
|
Qarashyghanaq |
2,3 |
252 000 |
Agip BG Chevron Lukoil |
33 33 20 15 |
|
Qaraqúdyq |
0,063 |
24 000 |
Lukoil |
100 |
|
Qarajanbas |
0,4 |
44 000 |
CNPC |
100 |
|
Qashaghan |
9 |
|
Agip QazMúnayGaz Inpex Conoco Philips |
17 17 8,28 8,28 |
|
Qazjermúnay |
0,1 |
37 300 |
QazMúnayGaz Petro Kazakhstan |
50 25 |
|
Hvalinskoe |
0,4 |
|
QazMúnayGaz Lukoil |
|
|
Soltýstik Qúmkól |
0,1 |
71 000 |
Petro Kazakhstan Lukoil |
50 |
|
Ontýstik Qúmkól |
0,116 |
74 000 |
Petro Kazakhstan |
100 |
|
Qúrmanghazy |
2,2 |
|
QazMúnayGaz Rossiya |
50 50 |
|
Manghystau Múnay Gaz |
0,5 |
112 000 |
CNPC QazMúnayGaz |
51 49 |
|
Soltýstik Buzachiy |
1 |
33 000 |
Lukoil CNPC |
50 50 |
|
Núrsúltan |
4,65 |
|
QazMúnayGaz Conoco Philips Shell |
|
|
Sәtpaev |
1,85 |
|
QazMúnayGaz ONGC |
|
|
Tengiyz |
9 |
350 000 |
Chevron Exxon MoBIL QazMúnayGaz Luk Arco |
50 25 20 5 |
|
Ortalyq |
3,8 |
|
QazMúnayGaz Gazprom Lukoil |
50 25 25 |
|
Tub-Qaraghan |
7 |
|
Lukoil QazMúnayGaz |
50 50 |
|
Ózen |
0,147 |
132 000 |
QazMúnayGaz |
100 |
|
Jambyl |
1,26 |
|
QazMúnayGaz Koreya |
75 25 |
|
Jana jol |
|
|
|
|
|
Jemchujnaya |
0,733 |
|
Shell QazMúnayGaz Oman |
5 25 20 |
Osylaysha, kestede kórsetilgen iri ken oryndardyng óndiretin múnay kólemi 1 302 000 barreli/tәuligine deyin jetedi. Eger Qazaqstannyng tәuligine óndiretin kólemi 2008 jyly 1 429 000 barreli bolsa, onda osy atalghan iri ken oryndardaghy óndiriletin múnay, býkil Qazaqstandaghy óndiriletin múnaydyng 91% qúraydy. Qalghany úsaq ken oryndargha bólinedi.
Sonymen qatar qytay kompaniyalary qazaq múnayyn óndirude 20%-gha iye. Sәikesinshe, AQSh pen Europa qazaq múnayyn óndirude 22% jәne 14% iye. Orys kompaniyalary qazaq múnayyn óndirude 10%-gha juyq kólemine iye. Qazaqstan óz múnayyn óndirude tek qana 17% dan 25%-gha deyin iye.
Monarhiyalyq Kapitaldyng transúlttyq kompaniyalarmen kýresuge shamasy kelmeydi. Sebebi olarmen kýresu ýshin oghan iri әlemdik oiynshylardyng qoldauy qajet. Bizding elimizding Reseymen kedendik odaqqa kiru sebebi ol AQSh pen Qytaydan jabylu әreketi, al bizding tabighy baylyghymyzdy birtindep Qytaygha beru rúqsaty ol AQSh-pen Reseyden jabylu talpynysy bolyp otyr. Biraq múnday sayasat nege әkelip soghatynyn biz tarihtan kóre alamyz, búl sayasat Abylay hannyng sayasatyna úqsas. Eger tarihtan sabaq almasaq, taghy bir ret qatelesuimiz ghajap emes.
2. Bay-sheneunikter. Bay-sheneunikterding tabys kózi azangda. Endi olargha budjetti erkin tonaugha jәne kәsipkerlerding aqshasyn sypyryp aluda jol joq. Búrynda olar Qazaqstan mening menshimgimde dep oilasa, endi Monarhiyalyq kapital olargha Qazaqstan olardyng menshiginde emes ekenin, búl el Monarhiyalyq kapitaldyng menshigi ekenin týsindirip otyr.
3. Kapitalister
Tabystyng týsimi azaydy, tipti toqtap qaldy. Kapitalister, baylargha qarsy kýresinde Monarhiyalyq Kapitaldyng qoldauyn sezdi jәne oghan óz rizashylyghyn bildirude.
«Dana jol yntaly toby»
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