AQSh qorghanys ministrligining tapsyrmasy boyynsha amerikandyq futurolog ghalymdar «Aua rayy mәlimeti: 2012-2020» atty boljamgha toly bayandama jasady. Oghan sensek, bolashaqta auyzsu, quat kózderi, qúnarly әri shúrayly jer ýshin adamzatty joyqyn soghys kýtip túrghan kórinedi. Boljam avtorlary  Piyter Shvars pen Duglas Rendollding saraptamasy ghalamsharymyzdaghy klimattyng ghalamdyq ózgerisine negizdelgen. Búryn-sondy bolmaghan alapat apattardy eskersek, múnday zertteu jýrgizuding ózektiligine eshqanday kýmәn joq. Mәselen, 1,5 ghasyr aralyghynda esepke ilingen zilzala men songhy 15 jylda bolghan jer silkinisining sany tenesken. Eki jyl búryn Gaitiyde 300 myng adam opat boldy. Byltyr qyrkýiek aiynda shelektep jaughan janbyrdyng kesirinen Germaniya su astynda qala jazdady. Japoniyadaghy tabighy apat óz aldyna bólek әngime.

Búdan keyin jaghday tipti de ushygha bermek. Amerikandyq ghalymdardyng pikirinshe, aldymyzdaghy jyldar barlyq qúrlyqtaghy sayasy ahualdy asqyndyruy yqtimal. Pentagon aldyn alugha әzir boluy tiyis qaterlerding tizimi de jasalghan. Amerikandyq ghalymdardyng boljamynsha, aldaghy apattardyng kestesi bylay týziledi:

Europa

- Tabighattaghy auytqushylyq kelesi qysta-aq bilinedi. 2012 jyly Skandinaviya halqy qatty suyqtyng kesirinen Europanyng ontýstigi men Reseyge qaray qonys audara bastaydy. Europanyng soltýstigindegi boran Sahanyng qytymyr tabighatynan asyp týspese, kem týspeytin bolady.

AQSh qorghanys ministrligining tapsyrmasy boyynsha amerikandyq futurolog ghalymdar «Aua rayy mәlimeti: 2012-2020» atty boljamgha toly bayandama jasady. Oghan sensek, bolashaqta auyzsu, quat kózderi, qúnarly әri shúrayly jer ýshin adamzatty joyqyn soghys kýtip túrghan kórinedi. Boljam avtorlary  Piyter Shvars pen Duglas Rendollding saraptamasy ghalamsharymyzdaghy klimattyng ghalamdyq ózgerisine negizdelgen. Búryn-sondy bolmaghan alapat apattardy eskersek, múnday zertteu jýrgizuding ózektiligine eshqanday kýmәn joq. Mәselen, 1,5 ghasyr aralyghynda esepke ilingen zilzala men songhy 15 jylda bolghan jer silkinisining sany tenesken. Eki jyl búryn Gaitiyde 300 myng adam opat boldy. Byltyr qyrkýiek aiynda shelektep jaughan janbyrdyng kesirinen Germaniya su astynda qala jazdady. Japoniyadaghy tabighy apat óz aldyna bólek әngime.

Búdan keyin jaghday tipti de ushygha bermek. Amerikandyq ghalymdardyng pikirinshe, aldymyzdaghy jyldar barlyq qúrlyqtaghy sayasy ahualdy asqyndyruy yqtimal. Pentagon aldyn alugha әzir boluy tiyis qaterlerding tizimi de jasalghan. Amerikandyq ghalymdardyng boljamynsha, aldaghy apattardyng kestesi bylay týziledi:

Europa

- Tabighattaghy auytqushylyq kelesi qysta-aq bilinedi. 2012 jyly Skandinaviya halqy qatty suyqtyng kesirinen Europanyng ontýstigi men Reseyge qaray qonys audara bastaydy. Europanyng soltýstigindegi boran Sahanyng qytymyr tabighatynan asyp týspese, kem týspeytin bolady.

- 2015 jyly Europada sudy, azyq-týlikti jәne quat kózderin bólisu mәselesinde qaqtyghystar boluy yqtimal.

- 2018 jyly Resey Euroodaqqa ótip, europalyqtar quat kózderine onay qol jetkizedi.

- 2020 jyly Skandinaviya, Gollandiya, Germaniya halqy ontýstikke qaray - Italiya, Ispaniya, Gresiyagha jappay kóshe bastaydy. Su jetispeushiligi men kóshi-qongha baylanysty janjaldar kóbeyedi.

- 2022 jyly Fransiya men Germaniya Reyn ózenine talasyp, janjal tuady.

2025-27 jyldary europalyq odaq kýireuding aldynda túrady. Europa halqy Soltýstik Afrika, Izraili men Týrkiyagha qaray jappay kóshe bastaydy. 2030 jylgha qaray Europa halqynyng 10 payyzy kóship ketedi.

Aziya

- 2012 jyldary Japoniya bas amandyghy ýshin qúrlyqtan jer basyp alu niyetimen kórshilerine qarsy agressiya jasauy mýmkin.

-  2015 jyly Tokio men Mәskeu arasynda Sibir men Sahalinning quat kózderin paydalanu turaly strategiyalyq kelisim bekitiledi.

-2018 jyly Qytay Qazaqstangha qarsy әskery operasiya jasauy yqtimal. Ondaghy maqsat - Qazaqstannyng jerimen ótetin gaz jәne múnay qúbyrlaryna baqylau ornatu.

- 2020 jyly Ontýstik-Shyghys Aziyada Ýndistan, Qytay, Vietnam, Laos, Miyanma jәne basqa elderdi sharpyghan ýlken soghys bolady.

- 2025 jyly Qytayda azamattyq soghys boluy kәdik. Búl dýrkin-dýrkin shekaralyq qaqtyghystargha úlasady.

- 2030 jyldary Japoniya men Qytay arasynda qaqtyghys bolady. Olar Reseyding tabighy resurstaryna qol jetkizu ýshin ózara qyrqysady.

Amerika

- 2012 jyly Karib araldarynyng halqy jappay AQSh-qa, Meksika men Amerikanyng ózge elderine  qaray aghyla bastaydy.

- 2015 jyly AQSh Europadan keletin migranttar tolqyny astynda qalady. Olardyng kóbi - bay adamdar.

- 2016 jyly AQSh pen Euroodaq arasynda tenizden balyq aulaugha qatysty janjal tuady.

- 2020 jyly múnay baghasy sharyqtap ósedi. Parsy Shyghanaghy men Kaspiyde iri qaruly qaqtyghystar boluy yqtimal.

- 2025 jyly osyghan baylanysty Parsy Shyghanaghynda AQSh pen Qytaydyng әskery teniz kýshteri arasynda qaqtyghys bolady.

Shvars pen Rendollding pikirinshe, osy qyrghyndardyng negizgi sebebi - tenizdegi aghystardyng baghytyn ózgertui bolmaq. Solardyng ishinde Golifstrim de bar. Ontýstik jarty shardy aptap ystyq  sharpidy. Sonyng kesirinen su tapshylyghy tuyp, shól-shóleytter basady. Auyl sharuashylyghyna jaramdy jer azayady. Qytay, Ýndistan men Pәkistangha búl qatty soqqy bolyp tiyedi. Biylikti ústap qaluy ýshin, búl elderding elitasy aimaqta ýlken soghys bastaydy.

Ghalamdyq súmdyq soghys nәtiyjesinde әlemning sayasy kartasy qayta syzylady. 2018 jyly syrtqy qauipten qorghanu ýshin Kanada, AQSh jәne Meksika bir memleketke birigedi. Soltýstik Amerika qorghanys ministrligining basty mindeti Karib aimaghy men Europadan keletin migranttar tasqynyna tosqauyl qoi bolmaq.

Qos Koreya aqyry birigedi. Jana el Seulding yadrolyq qarugha, Pheniyannyng jana tehnologiyalargha ie boluyna iygi septigin tiygizedi.

Sergey IYshenko,«Svobodnaya pressa»

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