Sәken Esirkepov. Qytay bolashaqtyng qamyn qazirden oilastyruda
Ótken ghasyrdyng 70-shi jyldarynan bastap әlemde Qytay fobiyasy jayly qauesetter keng taray bastady. Búl negizsiz de emes edi. Óitkeni bir milliardtan asa halqy, tarihy terenge tartqan mәdeniyeti, imperiyalyq ambisiyasy bar júngolyqtar qazirgi tangha deyin әlemning ekinshi alyp derjavasyna ainalyp ýlgerdi. Búghan el ekonomikasynyng jylyna 10 payyzben qaryshtap otyrghanyn da qosynyz. Optimistik gipotezalar Qytaydyng 2025 jyldan keyin-aq әlemning birinshi ekonomikasyna ainalatynyn kórsetedi. Biz Qytay ekonomikasy damuynyng san-salasyn taldaghaly jatqan joqpyz. Tek qytaylyqtardyng inisiativasymen qúrylghan «Batys Qytay-Batys Europa tas joly» men «Beyjin-London temir joly qúrylysy jobasy» jayly az-kem oy tarqatsaq deymiz. Óitkeni búl jobalar Qytaydyng bolashaqty kóksegen sayasatynan habar beredi.
HHI ghasyrda qúrlyq joldarynyng manyzy artady deuge negiz bar. Búghan mysal retinde qúrlyqty ondy-soldy kesip salynghan temir jәne tas joldaryn, sonday-aq qúbyr joldaryn ataugha bolady. Qytay Halyq Respublikasynyng bastamasymen «Qaraqorym», «Batys-Qytay-Batys Europa» tas joldary salynuda. Songhysynyng Qazaqstan territoriyasy arqyly ótui elding tranzittik manyzdylyghyn arttyryp otyr. Kedendik odaqtyng qúryluy da osy joldyng ýdesinen shyghuda desek qatelespeymiz. Óitkeni batystan-shyghysqa jetkiziletin jýk úlan-ghayyr aimaqty kedergisiz ótui qajet.
Ótken ghasyrdyng 70-shi jyldarynan bastap әlemde Qytay fobiyasy jayly qauesetter keng taray bastady. Búl negizsiz de emes edi. Óitkeni bir milliardtan asa halqy, tarihy terenge tartqan mәdeniyeti, imperiyalyq ambisiyasy bar júngolyqtar qazirgi tangha deyin әlemning ekinshi alyp derjavasyna ainalyp ýlgerdi. Búghan el ekonomikasynyng jylyna 10 payyzben qaryshtap otyrghanyn da qosynyz. Optimistik gipotezalar Qytaydyng 2025 jyldan keyin-aq әlemning birinshi ekonomikasyna ainalatynyn kórsetedi. Biz Qytay ekonomikasy damuynyng san-salasyn taldaghaly jatqan joqpyz. Tek qytaylyqtardyng inisiativasymen qúrylghan «Batys Qytay-Batys Europa tas joly» men «Beyjin-London temir joly qúrylysy jobasy» jayly az-kem oy tarqatsaq deymiz. Óitkeni búl jobalar Qytaydyng bolashaqty kóksegen sayasatynan habar beredi.
HHI ghasyrda qúrlyq joldarynyng manyzy artady deuge negiz bar. Búghan mysal retinde qúrlyqty ondy-soldy kesip salynghan temir jәne tas joldaryn, sonday-aq qúbyr joldaryn ataugha bolady. Qytay Halyq Respublikasynyng bastamasymen «Qaraqorym», «Batys-Qytay-Batys Europa» tas joldary salynuda. Songhysynyng Qazaqstan territoriyasy arqyly ótui elding tranzittik manyzdylyghyn arttyryp otyr. Kedendik odaqtyng qúryluy da osy joldyng ýdesinen shyghuda desek qatelespeymiz. Óitkeni batystan-shyghysqa jetkiziletin jýk úlan-ghayyr aimaqty kedergisiz ótui qajet.
Qazaqstan-Qytay arasyndaghy tauar ainalymy 2010 jyly 20 mlrd. AQSh dollarynan asty. Resey-Qytay tauar ainalymy da ótken jyldyng qorytyndysy boyynsha 60 mlrd. AQSh dollaryn baghyndyrdy. BRIKS elderining kezdesuinde Resey Preziydenti D. Medvedev Resey-Qytay tauar ainalymyn aldaghy jyldary 100 mlrd. AQSh dollaryna jetkizemiz dedi. Osynau sauda qatynastarynda «Batys Qytay-Batys Europa jolynyn» manyzy artpaq. Búl jol arqyly Europa-Qytay tauar ainalymynyng bir parasy da aghylady deuge negiz bar. Óitkeni osy kezge deyin Qytay men Europa elderi arasyndaghy sauda teniz joly arqyly jýzege asyrylyp keledi. Qytay portynan shyqqan keme Europagha jetkenshe 40-45 kýndi alady. «Batys Qytay-Batys Europa joly» Qytay men Europa arasyndaghy tauardy 10-12 kýnde jetkizedi dep josparlanuda. 2010 jyldyng qorytyndysy boyynsha Europa men Qytay arasyndaghy tauar ainalymy 500 mlrd. AQSh dollaryn qúraghan. Búl tauardyng belgili bir bóligi «Batys Qytay-Batys Europa joly» arqyly tasymaldansa tranzittik ýlesi retinde Qazaqstangha paydaly bolmaq. Degenmen, búl óz kezeginde Qytay yqpalynyng artuyn joqqa shygharmaydy.
Songhy kezderi «Beyjin-London temir jolyn» salu jayly da mәseleler kóterile bastady. Saghatyna 380 shaqyrymdy baghyndyratyn jýrdek poyyz 17 memleketting territoriyasynan ótu arqyly Beyjinnen Londongha deyin 48 saghatta jetedi dep kýtilude (Osy jyldyng basynda songhy ýlgide jabdyqtalatyn jýrdek poyyz jolyn Astana men Almaty qalalary arasynda salu jayly Qazaqstan men Qytay kompaniyalary arasynda da kelissózder jasalghan bolatyn). Al úshaq atalmysh eki qalanyng arasyn 10 saghatta jýrip ótedi. Almaty men Oraldyng arasyn otandastarymyz ýsh tәulikte ótip jýrgenin eseptesek «Beyjin-London temir jolynyn» mýmkindigi qanshalyqty ekenin baghamday alamyz. Atalmysh eki qala arasyndaghy tike qashyqtyq 8200 shaqyrymdy qúraydy. Al temir joldyng úzyndyghy 11 000 shaqyrym bolady dep josparlanuda. Tranzit elderining naq qaysy elder bolatynyn aitpaghan Qytay injenerlik akademiyasynyng mýshesi, Qytaydaghy jýrdek temir joldar jobasynyng agha konsulitanty Van Megshu britandyq The Telegraph gazetine bergen súqbatynda qazir osy eldermen kelissózder jýrgizilip jatqanyn mәlimdegen.
Atalmysh temir joly jelisining týrli tarmaqtary bolady dep kýtilude. Mәselen, «Beyjin-London temir joly» Beyjinnen Sibir territoriyasy arqyly Astanagha, odan Mәskeu men Peterburgqa ótip Europanyng basty qalalaryna, eng sonynda La-Mansh arqyly Londongha deyin sozylady dep kýtilude.[1] Taghy bir tarmaq - Beyjing men Singapurdy qosatyn bolady. Búl boyynsha London men Singapurdyng arasyn jýrdek poyyz ýsh kýnde jýredi dep eseptelude. «Beyjin-London temir jolynyn» taghy bir tarmaghy Ontýstik-Shyghys Aziya elderin (Týrkmenstan, Iran,Ýndistan, Vetnam, Tayland, Kambodja, Birma, Malayziya jәne Singapur) baylanystyrady dep josparlanuda. Qyrghyzstan men Tәjikistan jobagha qosylugha niyetti ekendikterin resmy týrde mәlimdep te ýlgerdi. Temir joldyng barlyq tarmaqtaryn qosqandaghy jalpy úzyndyq 35,5 myng shaqyrymgha sozylady. Qúrylys júmystaryna 100 mlrd. AQSh dollary ketedi dep josparlanuda.[2] Jobany qarjylandyru alyp kompaniyalar men tranzit elderdegi jeke sektorlardan tartu kózdelude.[3]
Vannyng mәlimdeuinshe temir joly tasymalynyng 80 payyzyn jýk tasymaly qúraytyn bolady. Búl Qytaydyng batys elderimen sauda qatynastaryn damyta beretinin kórsetse kerek.
«Beyjin-London temir joly» qúrylysy 2020 nemese 2025 jylgha deyin tolyqtay ayaqtalady dep kýtilude. Qazirding ózinde búl jobanyng Qytaydaghy Yunnani provinsiyasyndaghy bóligi qúrylysyn bastap ketti. Búl joba ayaqtalatyn bolsa jaqyn jiyrma jylda әlemdik dengeyde ýlken ózgerister bolady deuge bolady. Ghalam odan sayyn kishireyip qatynas, sauda isi qaryshtay týsedi. Jer sharynda (әsirese Qytayda) uaqyt ótken sayyn kóbeyip kele jatqan halyqtardyng migrasiyalyq tolqyndar aghymy da artady.
Qytaydyng Ortalyq Aziya, sonyng ishinde Qazaqstangha baghyttalghan gegemoniyasy jayly pikirler kóp aitylyp jýr. Shynyn aitqanda Qytay Qazaqstandy nemese Ortalyq Aziyany tikeley yqpal astyna alugha talpynbasa da qaryshtaghan Qytay ekonomikasy bizding eldi ainalyp ótpesi anyq. Biz tek ózimizding әleuetimizdi oilastyryp soghan qaray derbes sayasatymyzdy jýrgizuimiz qajet. Oghan Qazaqstannyng mýmkindigi bar.
Sәken Esirkepov
L.N. Gumiylev atyndaghy Euraziya
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[1] Ivan Gidaspov, Yuliya Kotova «Kitayskie poezda doedut iz Pekina do Londona za dva dnya» // Newsland, 10.03.2010, http://www.newsland.ru/News/Detail/id/471612/
[2] Lev Ivanov «Kitay postroit skorostnui jeleznui dorogu do Londona» // Svobodnaya pressa, 22 mart, 2010
http://svpressa.ru/economy/article/22825/
[3] Malcolm More «King's Cross to Beijing in two days on new high-speed rail network» // The Telegraphs, 08 Mar 2010,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/7397846/Kings-Cross-to-Beijing-in-two-days-on-new-high-speed-rail-network.html