Eurasia Review әlem halqynyng 70%-y túratyn Euraziya men Afroaziya kenistigindegi Batys baspasózinen qaltarysta qalghan týrli taqyrypty qozghaytyn, ózindik jeke pikirige ie AQSh tәuelsiz juraly әm saraptama ortalyghy bolyp tabylady.

Eurasia Review osy maqsatta týrli qózqarastaghy úiymdar men avtorlardyng maqalalaryn jariyalaudy basty oryngha qoyyp otyrady. Tayauda osy jurnalda Qazaqstangha qatysty Singapurdyng RSIS (S. Radjaratnama atyndaghy halyqaralyq zertteu mektebinin) agha ghylymy qyzmetkeri әm NTU (Nanyan tehnologiyalyq uniyversiytetinin) oqytushysy Chris Chang-nyn  “Russo-Kazakh Relations: The China Factor – Analysis/Orys-Qazaq qatynasy: Qytay faktoryna saraptama” atty maqalasy jaryq kórdi. 

Onda Qazaq elining әli de Resey shyrmauynda basy býtin qalyp otyrghandyghy jan-jaqty sóz etiledi. Endi osy Chris Chang maqalasyn Abay kz oqyrmandarynyng nazaryna úsynyp otyrmyz.

Qazaq-orys qatynasy: Qytay faktoryna saraptama

Qazaqstan men Qytay qarym-qatynasy songhy jyldary bekemdele týsti. Eng bastysy búl el “Beldeu men Jol” (BRI) atty qytay bastamasynda zor manyzgha iye. Onyng ýstine Qazaq Ýkimeti qos ókpesinen qysqandyqtan ózining Qytay men Resey baylanysynyng tizginin qolynan shygharmaugha bar kýshin saluda. 

Qytay ýshin Qazaqstan onyng sayasy qauipsizdigi әm ekonomikalyq mýddesine baylanysty basty orynda túr. Shynjanmen 1780 km shekshe shúbatyla shektesetin elge qatysty Bejin qazaqtar men Shynjan túrghyndary arasyndaghy etnikalyq, diny әm mәdeny baylanystardyng eki jaqty qatynasqa, әsirese qytay qauipsizdigindegi óz problemasyna selkeulik týsirmeuin janyn sala qoldaydy.

Ekonomikalyq jaqtan Qazaqstan BRÝQ (Briyk) negizgi ózegi bolghandyqtan, 2013 jyly Núr-Súltanda (búrynghy Astanada) 2013 jyly QHR tóraghasy Sy Szinpin BRÝQ  qúrylghanyn mәlimdeui tegin emes. Derek kózderining mәlimdeuinshe qazirgi kezde jalpy qúny 27,5 mlrd. dollar bolatyn 55 joba jýzege asyryluda. Qytay – Qazaqtyng energetikalyq sektoryndaghy beldi oiynshy. Ári taghy bir biletinimiz, osy elding múnay óndiruining 30%-yn óz qolynda ústap otyr. Jәnede basty sauda әriptesi retinde 2018 jyly $11,7 mlrd. kólemindegi sauda ainalymyna  qol jetkizip, óz ýlesin 12%-gha jetkizdi.

Toqaevtyng Resey jәne Qytaymen baylanysy

Qazaqstannyng Elbasysy Núrsúltan Nazarbaevtyng ayaq astynan 2019 jyldyng nauryzda dogharysqa ketui, sol kezdegi Senat tóraghasy Qasym-Jomart Toqaevty preziydent saylauyna deyin uaqytsha preziydent bolugha mәjbýr etti. 2019 mausym aiynda ótken saylauda saylaushylardyng 71% dauysyn iyelengen Toqaev jeniske jetti.

Búrynghy premier-ministr jәne syrtqy ister ministri bolghan Toqaev orys, qytay jәne aghylshyn tilderinde emin-erkin sóileydi. Ol kenes elshiliginde Singapurda (1970-shi jyldary) jәne Bejinde (1980-shi jyldary) júmys istedi. Onyng uaqytsha preziydent retindegi alghashqy sheteldik sapary 2019 jyldyng sәuirinde Mәskeuden bastalyp, preziydent Vladimir Putinmen jolghysyp, eki jaqty qarym-qatynastaghy búrynghy sara joldan ainymaytyndyghyna Resey basshysynyng kózin jetkizdi.

Al, osy jyldyng qyrkýieginde Toqaev Qazaqstan Preziydenti retinde Bejinge memlekettik is-saparmen jol tartyp, óz elining qytaygha degen qarym-qatynasy dәl búrynghyday ekendigin naqtylap bere aldy. Eki saparda da Qazaq biyligi ózining alpauyt kórshilerimen aradaghy baylanysyn tepe-tendikte ústay bilushiligin tanyta bildi.  

Qazaqstandaghy Resey mýddesi

Qazaqstannyng Euraziyadaghy manyzdy geografiyalyq ornalasuy, belgili bir mólsherde Sibirdi Europalyq Reseymen baylanystyra jalghauy,  iri jer kólemi (әlemdegi toghyzynshy oryndaghy) әri orasan mol energetikalyq baylyghyn sóz etpegende, Qytaymen ortaq shekarasy Reseyding nazaryn búl eldegi oryn alatyn oqighalargha audartpay qoymaytyny haq.

Eki elde bir qatar búrynghy kenestik respublikalardyng basyn qosqan ODKB mýshesi.  2019 jyldyng qantarynda shyqqan qazaq zertteushilerining eki jaqty qarym-qatynasty payymday saralaushy enbeginde ODKB-ny “letargiyalyq úiqy” dep syngha úshyratuyna qaramay, atalghan úiym óz mýshelerine barlau aqparattarymen almasugha, resey qaru-jaraghyn “óte arzan baghamen satyp alu arqyly, aimaqtaghy túraqtylyqty ornyqtyra arttyrugha” mýmkindik beredi delinedi.

Resey – Qazaqstangha eng iri qaru-jaraq satushy el. Onyng ýstine Mәskeuding Qazaq elinde eng manyzdy әskery nysandary Qazaqstan-zymyran poligony men ómirlik mýddeliktegi Bayqonyr gharysh ailaghy bar. Osy aimaqta 1957 jyldan beri әueli kenes, odan keyin resey gharyshty iygeru baghytyndaghy zymyran úshyrulary jýzege asyrylyp keledi.

Sayasy әm ekonomikalyq aralas-qúralastyq

Eki el de – búrynghy kenestik respublikalardyng basyn biriktirgen TMD mýshe.  Eng manyzdysy qos el de EAEO qúryltayshy mýshesi bolyp tabylady.

Sonday-aq, olar qazirgi kezde Qytay, Ýndistan, Qazaqstan, Qyrghyzstan, Pәkstan, Resey, Tәjikstan jәne Ózbekstan túraqty mýsheleri bolyp tabylyp, birqatar elder baqylaushy qúqyghyndaghy ShOS-tyn  qúryltayshy mýsheleri ekendigin aita ketpekpiz. ShOS basty maqsaty – sayasi-ekonomikalyq әriptestik pen qauipsizdik salasyndaghy seriktestikke yqpal etu.

Reseyding Qazaqstandaghy elshisi Aleksey Borodavkinning aituynsha, eki jaqty tauar ainalysy 2018 jyly $19 mlrd. qúrap, ótken 2017 jylgha qaraghanda 9% artqan. Orystardyng qazaqtarmen sauda ainalymyndaghy ýlesi 19%-gha jetetin eng iri sauda әriptesine ainaldy. Osy eldegi reseylik investisiyanyng jalpy mólsheri $ 12,6 mlrd. jetip otyr. Elshining sóz etuinshe, eki jaqtyq sauda jәne basqada qarjylyq is-әreketterdin  70% tól valuta tengemen jýzege asatyndyghynyng ózi-aq, qazaq-orys qarym-qatynasyndaghy tyghyz baylanystyng kórsetkishin tanytady.

Tarihy әm mәdeny baylanystar

Patsha dәuirinen bastau alyp, ortaq kenestik kezenge úlasatyn tarihy әm mәdeny baylanystar 1991 jyly KSRO taraghan uaqyttan beri esh әlsiregen joq. Qazaq ghalymdarynyng zertteuine sýienetin bolsaq, qazaq tili kýndelikti tirlik pen resmy enbekterde óte jii qoldanylghanymen de, basqa salalarda orys tili “óz ýstemdiginen” ayyrylmay otyr.

Zertteushiler reseylik BAQ qazaqtikine qaraghanda “óte әleuetti bolyp otyr” dep atap kórsetedi. Búdan bólek Reseyde oqityn qazaq studentterining sany óte joghary 2015/2016 oqu jylynda ondaghy 237 000 sheteldik studentting 79,2% TMD elderinen bolsa, onyng 36% qazaq studentteri qúraydy eken.

Borodavkin “reseylik joo 70 mynnan asa qazaq studentteri oqidy” degendi ashyp aitady. Al, elshi búdan bólek “jyl sayyn 9 myng qazaq jastary óz betimen Resey JOO týsip tegin bilim alyp jatyr” degen mәlimetti keltiredi.  (Qytay elinde bilim alatyn qazaq jastarynyng qatary 2013-2016 jyldar aralyghynda ýsh esege ósip, 15 000 jetti).

Demografiya

Qazaqstannyng 18,6 million túrghynnyng 23,7% qúraytyn etnikalyq orystar últtyq azshylyq bolyp tabylady. Etnikalyq qazaqtar bolsa, 63,1% jetip otyr (Chris Chang  2009 jylghy Resmy Sanaqtaghy derekterdi keltirip otyrghan jayy bar – avtor). Kóptegen etnikalyq orystar KSRO taraghan kezdegi Qazaq últtyq sana-sezimining oyanuy men ekonomikalyq jaghdaydyng nasharlauyna baylanysty týp kóterile aua kóshti.

Etnikalyq orystardyng kópshiligi Sibirmen shektesetin Soltýstik Qazaqstanda túryp jatyr. Bizge jetken maghúlmattar boyynsha osy etnikalyq orys múghadjarlyghy jәne jikshildik kónil auany mәselesi qazaq biyligining janúshyra kýresuge tiyis bas auruynyng bastysy bolyp túr. Osy últarazdyghyn boldyrmau jolynda jan úshyra kýresu barysynda Reseyding qas qabaghyna qaraushylyq basym. Óitkeni, aqyrghan orys aiy búl eldegi barlyq bolyp jatqan oqighany qalghymay baqylap otyrghan jayy bar.

2014 jyly Qyrymdy bauyryna basqanyna birneshe ay tolghan shaqta preziydent Putin “jana memleketting buynnyn bekitken, qabyrghasyn qataytqan Nazarbaevqa deyin qazaqtardyng jeke memleketi bolmaghan” degen sózdi aityp salghany da bar.

Qytay qaupine qarsy kónil-kýy әm onyng bolashaghy

Kóptegen alysty boljaytyn baqylaushylar “tayau aralyqta Qytaygha qarsy narazylyqtyng artuy qazaq-qytay qarym-qatynasyndaghy eng basty kedergige ainalady” degen bolatyn. Qytay immigranttarynyng sanynyn, ekonomikalyq basqynshylyghynyn  arta týsuinen tuyndaghan ýrey faktory osy jekkórushilikti qozdata týsuding qozghaushy kýshi bolyp tabylady. Qytay sayasatyndaghy oryn alyp jatqan Shynjandaghy nauqanda qazaqtar arasynda teris kózqarasty odan beter shiryqtyra qalyptastyryp otyr. Qytaygha qarsy qoghamdyq bas kóteruler Qazaq elining birqatar qalalaryn sharpydy. BAQ mәlimdeuinshe, qazaq oppozisiyalyq sayasaty biznes pen iri jobalardaghy Qytay aralasuyna qatysty jergilikti halyqtyng ashu-yzasyn tughyzdyratyn qoghamdyq ot-jalyngha ainaldyra bildi.

Ázirshe, Reseyding qazaqqa qatysty tarihy әm dәstýrli ýstemdigi Qytaydan keyingi ekinshi oryngha jyljidy deuge әli tym erterek. Eger preziydent Putin basqasha úigharmasa, Resey ýshin Qazaqstannyng geostrategiyalyq ornalasauy әm basqada jaghdayattary óte manyzdy bolyp qala bermek.

(Qazaq mýddesin eskermey, birjaqta Resey paydasyna el anysyn andyp barlau jýrgizuinen tuyndaytyn) Borodavkinning týsiniktemesining mәnisi eki elde “odaqtastyq qarym-qatynasta” bolghanymen de, Resey osynyng bәri tap búrynghysynsha saqtalyp qaluy ýshin qolynan kelgenning bәrin jasaydygha sayady. Dәl osy mezette sonymen birge Qytaydyng qazaq ekonomikasyndaghy tegeuirindi ekpini preziydent Toqaev jәne onyng Ýkimetine óz qysymyn ýdete týsude. Osy orayda Toqaev óz elining Qytay jәne Reseyge qatysty qarym-qatynasynyng tizginin óz qolynan shygharmay, eshbirining yghyna jyghylmay qiynnan qiystyra jol taba biluge tiyis. 

Ábil-Serik Áliakbar

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