Ýstimizdegi jyldyng 12 mausymynda adamzat tarihy taghy bir eleuli oqighamen tolyqty. Irannyng basshylyghyna 52 jastaghy Mahmud Ahmadiynejad keldi. Parsy elinde ótken preziydenttik saylaugha, «eleuli oqigha» - dep bagha berip otyrghanymyzdyng ózindik sebepteri bar. Búl saylaudyng nәtiyjeleri aldaghy tórt jyl ishinde, әlemdegi sayasy kenistikti edәuir ózgeristerge úshyratatyny aqiqat. Ol ózgerister jayly osy maqala barysynda tarata әngimelep beremiz.

Sonymen, Iranda preziydentik saylaudyng nәtiyjeleri belgili boldy. 2003 jyly Iran astanasy - Tegeranda әkim bolyp saylanghan taramys Ahmadiynejad, aragha 5 jyl salyp elding biyik túghyryna kóterildi. Bizding oiymyzsha Irannyng ghana emes, jalpy Aziyanyng sayasy kókjiyeginde jana túlghanyng súlbasy kózge daralanyp týse bastady. Osynday túlghanyng payda boluyna tarihtyng ózi «kinәli» sekildi.

Ángimeni Irannyng HH ghasyrdaghy dәuirlik manyzy bar oqighalarynan bastayyq. Ótken ghasyrda Iran úly derjavalardyng yqpal etu obektisine ainalghan el edi. 1953 jyly AQSh-tyng Ortalyq barlau basqarmasynyng «kómegimen» últshyl sayasatker Múhammed Mossadyk premier-ministrding taghynan sayasy tónkeris arqyly aiyrylyp qaldy. Osy kýnnen bastap Britan memlekettining Tayau Shyghystaghy dәureni ayaqtalyp, aimaqta AQSh-tyng tynysy sezile bastady. Búl sayasy ýrdister әigili sayasatker, diplomat Zbignev Bzejinskiyding sózimen aitqanda Irannyng AQSh-qa degen óshpendiligin tudyrghan jaytter edi.

Ýstimizdegi jyldyng 12 mausymynda adamzat tarihy taghy bir eleuli oqighamen tolyqty. Irannyng basshylyghyna 52 jastaghy Mahmud Ahmadiynejad keldi. Parsy elinde ótken preziydenttik saylaugha, «eleuli oqigha» - dep bagha berip otyrghanymyzdyng ózindik sebepteri bar. Búl saylaudyng nәtiyjeleri aldaghy tórt jyl ishinde, әlemdegi sayasy kenistikti edәuir ózgeristerge úshyratatyny aqiqat. Ol ózgerister jayly osy maqala barysynda tarata әngimelep beremiz.

Sonymen, Iranda preziydentik saylaudyng nәtiyjeleri belgili boldy. 2003 jyly Iran astanasy - Tegeranda әkim bolyp saylanghan taramys Ahmadiynejad, aragha 5 jyl salyp elding biyik túghyryna kóterildi. Bizding oiymyzsha Irannyng ghana emes, jalpy Aziyanyng sayasy kókjiyeginde jana túlghanyng súlbasy kózge daralanyp týse bastady. Osynday túlghanyng payda boluyna tarihtyng ózi «kinәli» sekildi.

Ángimeni Irannyng HH ghasyrdaghy dәuirlik manyzy bar oqighalarynan bastayyq. Ótken ghasyrda Iran úly derjavalardyng yqpal etu obektisine ainalghan el edi. 1953 jyly AQSh-tyng Ortalyq barlau basqarmasynyng «kómegimen» últshyl sayasatker Múhammed Mossadyk premier-ministrding taghynan sayasy tónkeris arqyly aiyrylyp qaldy. Osy kýnnen bastap Britan memlekettining Tayau Shyghystaghy dәureni ayaqtalyp, aimaqta AQSh-tyng tynysy sezile bastady. Búl sayasy ýrdister әigili sayasatker, diplomat Zbignev Bzejinskiyding sózimen aitqanda Irannyng AQSh-qa degen óshpendiligin tudyrghan jaytter edi.

Parsy qoghamynyng jýregine óshpes qayau týsirgen taghy bir zúlmat - ol Irak pen Iran arasynda ótken 1980-1988 jyldar aralyghyndaghy soghys bolatyn. Is jýzinde Iran sol kezde Irak arqyly býkil әlemmen soghysqan edi. Sebebi, Irak basshysy Saddam Huseynge «segiz jyldyq soghysta» bәsekeles ýlken eki imperiya men oghan odaqtas elder, tipti aparteid jaghdayynda jatqan ontýstik afrikalyq memleketter de ashyq nemese jasyryn týrde kómektesip otyrghan. Eng qyzyghy sol kezde Irangha jaqtasqan birden-bir el bolasa, ol býgingi jauy - Izraili ghana bolatyn. Tarihtyng joly - shyrghalan.

Alpauyt memleketting Irakqa qol ýshyn berui kelesi sebeptermen týsindiriledi. 1979 jyly  Irandaghy monarhiyany qúlatyp, Iran islam respublikasyn qúrghan tónkeristing oryn alghany bәrimizge belgili. Biylikke janadan kelgen jauynger islamdyq sayasy topqa, úly derjavalyq memleketter birden tiksine qarap, olardyng mәlimdemelerinen qauiptene bastady. Osylaysha halyqaralyq sayasatty Iran problemasy degen sayasy terminning alghashqy elesi keze bastaghandy.

Atalghan soghysta Saddam Huseynge jaqtasqan әlem, tarihy tamyry terende, ghasyrlar boyy imperiyalyq genin qalyptastyrghan Parsy elining әlemdi biyleudegi gegemondyq mýddesin jatyrynda túnshyqtyrghysy keldi. Al, býgingi Irannyng yadrolyq baghdarlamasy bizding aityp otyrghan parsylardyng imperiyalyq ambisiyasynyng bir elementi ghana.

Alpauyt memleketterdi Irandaghy sayasy rejimning últtyq reninen góri, diny boyauy qatty alandatady. Óitkeni, Tegerandaghy sayasy jәne diny tehnologtar Izrailige qarsy ýnemi soghysyp jýretin shiittik toptar men arab elderindegi shiittik qauymdastyqtarmen jyldar boyy sheber júmys istep kelgen bolatyn. Irannyng yaderlyq qarugha ie boluy Batys pen AQSh-tan búryn, islam әlemin qatty alandatuda, sebebi parsylardaghy imperiyalyq metajad músylman dinining gumanistik dýniyetanymynan kez kelgen sәtte bas tartuy ghajap emes.

Osynday tarihiy-sayasy alghysharttar sayasy dýniyege Mahmud Ahmadiynejad atty túlghany alyp keldi. Jalpy, tarihta polusting bir shetinde diplomatiyalyq qaghidalardy týsinbeytin dóreki, soghysqúmar sayasatker shyqsa, oghan tura ózi siyaqty, biraq ishki jan-dýniyesi qarama-qayshy, batyl hәm is-qimyly sergek bir adam qoyylady. Osy teoriyamyzdyng dәleli retinde Ahmadiynejadtyng baghyn jandyrghan - Djordj Bushty alayyq. Bush tarihy sahnagha shyghyp, Irannyng irgesindegi Irakqa oq jaudyrmaghanda, bәlkim Ahmadiynejad Tegerannyng әkimi retinde әleumettik-sharuashylyq mәselelermen ainalysyp typ-tynysh jata berushi me edi, kim bilsin?!

Endi gipotezalarymyzdan ótken aptada Iranda oryn alghan qym-qighash oqighalargha kósheyik. Tegeranda oryn alghan ereuilderge týrtki bolghan saylau nәtiyjeleri tómendegidey týzilipti. Resmy derekterge sýiensek, bizding basty keyipkerimiz 52 jastaghy Mahmud Ahmadiynejad -  62,63%, onyng basty qarsylasy 67 jastaghy eks-premier-ministr Mirhosseyn Musavy - 33,75%, Mohsen Rezay - 1, 73 % jәne Mehdy Kyarruby 0, 85 % dauys jinaghan eken.

Mohsen Rezay Ahmadiynejadtyng jenisin birden moyyndady. Al, Musaviyding jaqtastary «Bizge bostandyq qymbat!» jәne «Mening dauysym nege úrlandy?» degen úrandarmen kóshege shyghyp ketti. Birneshe kýndik tәrtipsizdikting saldarynan ondaghan adam jaraqattanyp, kóptegen әleumettik manyzy bar infraqúrylymdar zapa shekti.

Múnday tolqulardy basu ýshin úly múrattaryn qúrban etudi oiyna da almaghan Ahmadiynejad, senbi kýngi sóilegen sózinde Irangha jany qas sayasy kýshter parsylargha qarsy «psihologiyalyq soghys» jýrgizip otyr dep mәlimdedi. «Búl úly jenis Iran halqyna qarsy baghyttalghan nasihat qúraldary belsendi júmys jasap jatqan jaghdayda jýzege asty» - dedi  Mahmud Ahmadiynejad óz sózinde.

Tegerandaghy oqighalar Ortalyq jәne Tayau Shyghystaghy teokratiyalyq rejimderge qaraghanda, Irannyng ereksheligin aiqyndap berdi. Qanday biyleu jýiesi ornyqpasyn, eshbir músylman elinde saylaudan keyin múnday tolqular bola bermeydi. Iranda negizgi biylik saylanbaytyn diny basshylyqta bolghanymen, qoghamda pluralizm keng etek jayghan. Búl parsylarda belsendi jәne qyzu temperamenti bar qoghamnyng qalyptasqandyghynyng belgisi. Irandaghy keyingi oqighalar Tayau Shyghysta sanaspaugha bolmaytyn jas derjavanyng ósip kele jatqandyghyn kórsetedi. Sebebi, parsy qoghamynyng energiyasy ózining mýddesin qorghaugha jetetindigin aighaqtady. Ishki  sayasy dýrbelenning ózi - qarapayym parsy halqynyng syrttan keletin yqpalgha tótep bere alatyndyghynyng kepildigi ekendigin dәleldep berdi. Al múnday energetikasy bar halyqpen aimaqta óz mýddesin qorghap, sózin jýrgize alatyn memleket qúru qiyn emes.

Eng qyzyghy, Ahmadiynejadty jenisimen alghashqylardyng biri bop Irak pen Aughanstan qúttyqtaghan kórinedi. Sonymen qatar alghashqy qúttyqtaularyn Irannyng antibatystyq lageridegi seriktesteri Liviya men Venesuella jetkizdi. Ártýrli diny ekstremistik úiymdar da, Ahmadiynejadtyng jenisin toylauda.

Al, Batys elderi men AQSh әdettegidey óz «alandaushylyghyn» jasyra almady. Keyingi kezde kórinbey ketken AQSh-tyng búrynghy preziydenti Djordj Bush Irandaghy saylaugha «әdiletsiz ótti» degen bagha berdi. Pensilivaniya shtatyna qarasty Ery qalasynda sóilegen  sózinde, Bush Barak Obamany «Irangha kelgende tym júmsaqtyq tanytady» - dep aiyptady. Sebebi, Barak Obama óz kezeginde Irandaghy saylau qorytyndylaryna baylanysty: «AQSh Irannyng derbestigin qúrmetteydi jәne onyng ishki isterine aralaspaydy» degen bolatyn. Búl da bolsa, jogharydaghy aitqan sózimizdi quattaytyn aqparat bola alatyn siyaqty. Eger, Bush dәl qazir biylik basynda bolsa, býgin Pentagonda Aqýiding iyesi bastaghan generaldar Irangha jasalatyn shabuyldyng josparyn jasap jatar ma edi. Bәlkim, shabuyldan keyin ashulanghan Ahmadiynejad Vashingtongha Hirosima-Nagasakiyding ayaghyn qúshtyrar ma edi. Biraq, eki oqighanyng uaqyttyng qarama-qayshy kenistiginde ótip jatqandyghynan, adamzat tarihy basqasha damityndyghy aiqyn boldy.

Endigi әngimemizdi Ahmadiynejadtyng alghashqy qadamdaryn boljau tónireginde órbitpekpiz.

Ishki sayasatta

Birinshi qadam retinde jana saylanghan el basshysy daghdarys jaghdayyndaghy әlsiregen Irannyng ekonomikasyn sauyqtyrugha kirisetini zandylyq.

Ekinshi qadam retinde qoghamdyq qúrylymdy damytugha kónil bólinedi. Bizding oiymyzsha tayau jyldary Iran qoghamyna zayyrly-islam modeli engiziletin bolady. Oghan býgingi demokratiyalyq ýrdister, alghysharttar jasaghanyn jogharyda aityp kettik.

Ýshinshi qadam, yaderlyq baghdarlamalardy ary qaray jýrgizu ýshin, elde ghylymy júmystargha erekshe nazar audarylatyn bolady.

Syrtqy sayasatta

Birinshiden, Iran kýsheyip alghansha, Batyspen, әsirese, AQSh pen uaqytsha janjaldaspau jolyn tandaydy.

Ekinshiden, Tayau Shyghysta, әsirese, Izraili memleketimen dostyq qaram-qatynas ornatugha talpynys bolmaq.

Ýshinshiden, ShYÚ-na kiretin eldermen jәne kórshiles, shekaralas memlekettermen sauda-ekonomikalyq baylanysty nyghaytugha nazar audarylady.

Atalghan boljamdar Ahmadiynejadtyng alghashqy bir jarym jylghy sayasaty bolady dep topshylaymyz. Keyingi sayasaty әlemdegi sayasi-eknomikalyq jaghdaylar men halyqaralyq jaghdaydyng әserinen ózgeriske úshyrauy әbden mýmkin.

Qazaqstan men Irannyng arasyndaghy qarym-qatynas bolashaqta dostyq pen әriptestik jaghdayynda damidy. Oghan birqatar sayasi-ekonomikalyq faktorlar bar.

Birinshiden, Qazaqstan men Iran arasynda kóptegen jobalar jýzege asugha bet aldy. Onyng ishinde Qazaqstan-Týrkmeniya-Iran (Parsy búghazy) múnay qúbyryn salu jobasy, Týrkmeniya arqyly Ozen beketinen irandyq Gorgon qalasyna deyin baratyn temirjol koridoryn salu jobasy jәne taghy basqa manyzdy elaralyq sharualar bar.

Ekinshiden, Qazaqstan jaghy jana quat kózin alugha bolatyn yaderlyq bank jobasyn jasaudy qúp kóredi. Ol degenimiz Qazaqstan men Iran bolashaqta yaderlyq beybit jobalardy birlese jýzege asyrugha qúlyqty degen sóz.

Ýshinshiden, mynjyldyqtar boyy qalyptasqan tarihy ekojýiedegi ortaq ýrdister eki el arasyndaghy yntymaqtastyq pen dostyqty kýsheytetini sózsiz.