Aleksandr Nevskiyding Altyn Ordagha songhy, altynshy sapary 1262 jyldyng kýzine kelgen edi. Nevskiy Altyn Orda hany Berkening Aqtúba ózeni jaghasyndaghy sayat ordasynda qystap shyghady. Rusiting Ordagha beretin salyghyn Berkening adamdary emes, ózderi jinap beretin bolyp kelisedi. Jәne Berkeden ózine qarsy shyqqan Novgorodty shappauyn súrap alady. Orda saparynan qaytyp bara jatyp, Aleksandr Nevskiy auyryp qalady da, 1263 jyly kóz júmady.

Aragha 760 jyl salyp Rusi basshysy Vladimir Putin Esil jaghasyndaghy Ordagha qaytyp oralmaq. 760 jyl búryn knyazidar arasyndaghy tartys Rusiti ishten ydyratyp jatsa, qazir imperiyalyq ambisiya jeteginde ketip, Batysqa qarsy bastaghan joryghy Reseydi týbi ydyratyp tynuy mýmkin. Post avtory ózine eki súraq qoyghan edi: Resey bizden ne súramaq jәne onyng ekonomikasyn ne kýtip túr? Birinshi súraqty desertke qaldyra otyryp, ózimiz qyr-syryn biletin ekinshi súraqtyng jiligin mýjgimiz keledi.

RESEY EKONOMIKASY: UAQYTShA PARADOKS PEN ERTENGI TÚMAN

Uaqytsha paradoks

Reseyge qatysty bizding bәrimiz qatelestik. Osy joldyng avtory da sanksiyalar paketi qorjyn toltyryp jatqan 2022 jyldyng sonynda «Reseyding sharuasy bitti» degen sarynda birneshe post úryp ýlgergen edi. Sebebi, biz 12-shi sanksiya paketindegi múnay limiyti Reseydi valutalyq týsimderden aiyrady, sol kezde Mәskeu últtyq әl-auqat qoryndaghy zapasyn jep qoyady da, budjet defisiyti bastalyp, defolttar kezenine ayaq basady dep boljadyq.

Batystyng shemasy mynaday edi: olar Reseyding Urals múnayyn barreline 60 dollar qylyp limit retinde shekteydi. Resey osyghan kelisken jaghdayda ghana iri halyqaralyq tankerlik kompaniyalargha Urals múnayyn tasugha rúqsat beredi. Búl sanksiya júmys istemey qaldy. Resey ózining barlyq tankerlerin jinady jәne naryqtan eski tankerlerdi arzan baghagha satyp alyp, jýkti saqtandyrmastan múnayyn Ýndistan, Pәkistan, Qytay, Indoneziya porttaryna tasy bastady. Aqshany dollarmen emes, yuani men rupiyde alyp otyrdy.

Syrtqy valutalyq týsimder aghymy sarqylmaghandyqtan, Resey ýkimeti ekonomikany әskery reliske qoygha mýmkindik aldy. Barlyq әskery óndiris oshaqtary memleketten alpauyt zakazdar alyp, sol tapsyrysty oryndau ýshin kadr tapshylyghy jaghdayynda adamdargha jalaqyny eki esege ósirdi. Júmyssyz jýrgenderding barlyghyn osy zauyttargha jaqsy jalaqymen júmysqa alyp jatyr. Onyng ýstine premiyalar kóbeydi.

Osynyng barlyghy 2022 jyly qysqaryp qalghan tútynu kólemining kýrt ósuine alyp keldi. Nәtiyjesinde, 2022 jyly Resey ekonomikasy 2,1% joghalasa, biyl kerisinshe 2,2-2,8% aralyghynda ósetin bolyp otyr. Demek, Resey ózining soghysqa deyingi jaghdayyna qayta oraldy.

Ertengi túman

Ekonomikadaghy әskery relis jýiesi qanshalyqty ómirshen? KSRO sabaghy bәrimizding mandayymyzgha tayaq bolyp tiygenin bilemiz. Osyny anyqtau ýshin Resey ekonomikasynda oryn alyp jatqan ishki strukturalyq ózgeristerdi saraptaugha tura keledi. Reseydegi ósimning barlyghy әskeriy-óndiristik kompleks jәne soghan baylanysty qúrylys arqyly kelude. Búl rette azamattyq ekonomika sektory, halyq kýndelikti tútynatyn tauarlar óndirisinde sapaly serpin joq. Jәne infraqúrylymgha eshqanday investisiya kelip jatqan joq. 2024 jylgha arnalghan federaldy budjette qorghanys salasyna 10,7 trillion rubli qarastyrylghan. Mysaly, 2021 jyly osy baghytqa 3,5 trillion rubli berilgen bolatyn. Yaghny eki jylda qorghanys budjeti 3 ese ósip otyr. Odan bólek, ishki túraqtylyqty saqtaugha (OMON, Rosgvardiya) 11 trillion rubli bólindi. Resey ekonomikasy 2021 jyldyng kórinisine qayta oralady desek, osy aiyrmashylyq (18 trillion rubli) qanday budjettik baptar esebinen alynbaq?

Boljamdy salyq týsimderin qarasaq, Reseyge qazirgi josparlap otyrghan shyghystaryna aqsha jetkizu ýshin rublidi kem degende dollaryna 130 bolatynday qylyp devalivasiyalau kerek. Búl – onyng halqynyng qazir ailyghy ósse de, kelesi jyly qaytadan kedeylene bastaytynyn bayqatady. Sonda biz aityp otyrghan ekonomikalyq ósim halyqqa esh paydasy tiymey, artynan ushyghatyn inflyasiya arqyly reseylikterge keri soqqy bolyp qaytyp kelmek.

Resey biz 2021-2022 jyly ótken joghary inflyasiya jәne bazalyq stavkanyng ósui fazasyna 2024 jyldan bastap týse bastaydy. Kreditter qymbattaydy, al ipoteka olarda jyljymaly stavka boyynsha berilgendikten jeke azamattardyng defolty kóbengi mýmkin.

Batys ekonomisteri de osal emes. Kremli ýshin eng qauiptisi – olar bәribir býgin be, erteng be, Reseyding eng jandy jerinen ústaytyn sanksiya oilap tabady.

Resey bizden ne súramaq?

Resey ýshin Qazaqstan osy aimaqtaghy ózining ekonomikalyq mýddesine qarsy júmys istey bastauy mýmkin be, sony bilip alu manyzdy. Onyng ishine kóptegen saladaghy josparlar kiredi. Anyghyn aitsaq, Qazaqstandaghy AES. Ony Rosatom emes, Fransiyanyng EDF korporasiyasy salu mýmkindigi Kremlidi úiqysynan aiyrdy. Ekinshi mәsele, elimizding Qyrghyzstannan keletin paralellidi importqa elektrondy baqylau ornatuy Reseyding biraz josparyn búzdy. Ýshinshi mәsele – Qaraghandy metallurgiya zauytyna Severstaliding kelu perspektivasy.

Resey Qazaqstandy auyr infraqúrylymdyq jobalarmen shyrmap alghysy keledi. Sebebi, Qazaqstan óz uysynan susyp shyghyp bara jatyr dep oilap otyr.

Osy jyldyng 8 aiynda Qazaqstan men Reseyding tauar ainalymy 17 milliard dollargha jetti. Onyng ishinen biz 6,4 milliard dollargha tauar eksporttasaq, Reseyden 10,6 milliard dollargha import aldyq. Osy 10,6 milliardtyng kóbisi azyq-týlik. Reseymen ekonomikalyq balansta biz ýshin defisit bar. Biz ony osy aldaghy 3-4 jylda óz paydamyzgha keltirudi oilastyryp otyrmyz.

760 jyl búryn Aleksandr Nevskiyding Berke hangha kýzgi saparynan keyin Altyn Orda imperiyasynyng ydyrau kezeni bastalyp, kerisinshe Rusi kýsheye bastady. Ertengi kýzgi sapar kerisinshe Aqordanyng kýsh alatyn dәuiri aldynda jasalmaq.

Euraziyadaghy barlyq joldar bolashaqta tek qana Astanagha aparatyn bolady. Batys pen shyghysty, soltýstik pen ontýstikti baylanystyratyn koridordyng boyynda otyrghan qazaq últy óz bolashaghyna senimmen qaray bastady.

Aybar Oljaev

Abai.kz