Kópvektorly sayasat – búl tek bir ghana geosayasy blokqa sýienuding ornyna birneshe jahandyq derjavalarmen tengerimdi, yntymaqtastyq qarym-qatynastardy saqtaugha baghyttalghan syrtqy sayasy doktrina.

Qarapayym tilmen aitqanda, kópvektorly sayasat әlemning әrtýrli elderi men aimaqtarymen jan-jaqty yntymaqtastyqty bildiredi. Búl elge bir ghana syrtqy serikteske tәueldilikten aulaq bolugha jәne diplomatiyalyq strategiyasynda iykemdilikti saqtaugha mýmkindik beredi.

Syrtqy qatynastardaghy kópvektorly sayasat tújyrymdamasyn alghash ret Kenes Odaghy ydyraghannan keyin, 1992 jyldyng mamyr aiynda Qazaqstannyng eks-preziydenti Núrsúltan Nazarbaev tújyrymdaghan.

Kópvektorly sayasattyng negizgi kórinisteri:

Keng auqymdy diplomatiyalyq baylanystardy damytu. Mysaly, Qazaqstan Qytay, Amerika Qúrama Shtattary, Europa elderi jәne Ortalyq Aziya aimaqtaryn qosa alghanda, 180-nen astam elmen diplomatiyalyq qarym-qatynas ornatty.

Beybitshilik pen halyqaralyq qauipsizdikke berilgendik. Syrtqy sayasat strategiyasy pragmatizmge, beybitshilikke jәne ótkir halyqaralyq qaqtyghystarda beytaraptyqqa negizdelgen.

Kópjaqty halyqaralyq jәne aimaqtyq birlestikterge belsendi qatysu. Mysaly, Qazaqstan BÚÚ, ShYÚ, EAEO, ÚQShÚ jәne EQYÚ-gha belsendi qatysady, sonday-aq Ortalyq Aziya elderimen jәne basqa da aimaqtarmen ekijaqty baylanystardy damytuda.

Osylaysha, Qazaqstannyng Euraziyanyng ortalyghynda ornalasuymen baylanysty halyqaralyq qatynastardyng jahandyq jýiesindegi ózindik erekshe orny bar. Negizinde, búl ony avtomatty týrde strategiyalyq manyzdy aumaqqa ainaldyrady. Múnda jahandyq geosayasattaghy ýsh iri oiynshynyn: Qytaydyn, Reseyding jәne Amerika Qúrama Shtattarynyng mýddeleri toghysady.

Jetekshi әlemdik derjavalardyng qataryna songhy onjyldyqtarda manyzdylyghy aitarlyqtay ósken aimaqtaghy jәne onyng ainalasyndaghy birqatar elderdi qosugha bolady: Europalyq Odaq, Ýndistan, Týrkiya, Iran, Pәkistan jәne Parsy shyghanaghy memleketteri. Belgili bir dәrejede búl elderdi Euraziyanyng ortalyghyndaghy ýsh iri oiynshy arasyndaghy bәsekelestik qyzyqtyrady. Óitkeni, halyqaralyq qatynastardyng jahandyq jýiesining «jýike ortalyqtarynyn» biri osynda ornalasqan: ýsh úly derjava jәne birqatar yqpaldy aimaqtyq memleketter.

Búl Qazaqstan ýshin de, basqa da Ortalyq Aziya memleketteri ýshin de belgili bir naqty qiyndyqtar tughyzady. Olar bizding aimaghymyzgha әrqashan qatysty emes keng auqymdy mәseleler boyynsha kelispeushilikterge tap boluy mýmkin ekenine qaramastan, kóptegen oiynshylardyng mýddelerin eskerui kerek.

Resey men Amerika Qúrama Shtattary arasyndaghy qazirgi kýrdeli qarym-qatynastardy, sonday-aq Beyjing men Vashington arasyndaghy sauda daularyn atap ótu jetkilikti. Búl elderding barlyghy jahandyq dengeyde manyzdy ról atqaratynyn eskersek, búl Ortalyq Aziya aimaghy ýshin belgili bir qauip tóndiredi. Óitkeni eger jaghday qolaysyz damysa, úly derjavalar arasyndaghy qayshylyqtar teoriyalyq túrghydan bizding baghytymyzgha da ushyghuy mýmkin.

Shyn mәninde, jahandyq qaqtyghystargha tartylmau ýshin aimaqtyq memleketter ýshin belsendi kópvektorly sayasat óte manyzdy. Búl, eng aldymen, ortalyqta ornalasqan Qazaqstangha qatysty. Búl, eng aldymen, úly derjavalardyng olardyng biri múnda artyqshylyqqa ie bola alady dep oilauyna jol bermeu ýshin.

Óitkeni búl alandaushylyq tudyrady jәne tipti óz mýddeleri ýshin kýresting kýshengine әkeledi. Eng tiptik mysal - syrtqy sayasat saylau prosesine tikeley әser etetin Moldovadaghy jaghday. Bizding jaghdayymyzda, biz әrqashan mýddeler daulasatyn nysan emes, syrtqy sayasattyng subektisi boluymyz manyzdy. Óitkeni subektimen kelisimder jasalady, biraq nysan ýshin kýres jýrgiziledi.

Ortalyq Aziyada Qazaqstan әrqashan kópvektorly sayasatty ústanyp, kez kelgen kýrt syrtqy sayasy manevrlerden aulaq boldy. Aymaqtyq kórshilerimizding keybiri, әsirese 1990 jәne 2000 jyldary, kýrdeli halyqaralyq jaghdaylardy eskeruge mәjbýr bolghanymen, Sonymen qatar, aimaqtaghy yqtimal damulardy týsinu jәne onyng kýn tәrtibin halyqaralyq qauymdastyqqa úsynu ýshin kópvektorly sayasat mýmkindiginshe belsendi boluy kerek.

Búl strategiyalyq túrghydan da, óz damuymyz túrghysynan da, taktikalyq túrghydan da - úly derjavalardyng mýddeleri arasynda manevr jasau túrghysynan da qajet. Múnyng bәri óte manyzdy, sebebi damu baghdarlamalary eng joghary dengeyde dialogqa mýmkindik beredi jәne úly derjavalardyng ózderin qosa alghanda, kóptegen qatysushylardy tartady.

Siz bir elding nemese tipti elder tobynyng shekarasynan tysqary jerlerge taraytyn damu baghdarlamalaryn úsynghan kezde, siz jahandyq mәselelerge qatysty mәseleler turaly aityp otyrsyz. Búl әsirese olardy salystyrmaly týrde shaghyn, biraq strategiyalyq túrghydan manyzdy el, mysaly, Qazaqstan úsynghan jәne ilgeriletkende dúrys.

Demek, úly derjavalar múnday baghdarlamalargha qatysudan bas tarta almaydy, sebebi olar aimaqtaghy yqpal etu ýshin bәsekelesterining ne isteytinin bilmeydi. Búl shaghyn elder men úly derjavalardyng ózara tәueldiligi. Múnda KSRO qúrylghannan keyin birden Ortalyq Aziyadaghy ýsh úly derjava arasyndaghy qayshylyqtardyng mәnin atap ótken jón. KSRO-nyng ydyrauy Reseyding ketuine baylanysty geosayasy vakuum qaldyrdy.

1990 jyldardyng basynda onyng jana biyligi KSRO-nyng liyberalizasiyasy kezindegi demokratiyalyq kóshbasshylardyng logikasyn ústandy jәne Aziya respublikalarymen baylanysty auyrtpalyqtardan arylugha tyrysty. Búl jaghdayda vakuumdy negizinen AQSh toltyrdy, ol aimaqtaghy elderding damuyn, sonyng ishinde halyqaralyq qarjy instituttary arqyly qoldady.

Qytay óz kezeginde әlemdegi ekinshi iri ekonomikagha ainalghan reformalardy endi ghana bastap jatqan edi. Biraq ol Ortalyq Aziya aimaghyndaghy jana mýmkindikterdi de, óz Batysy ýshin jana qauipterdi de, mysaly, 1990 jyldardaghy Aughanstandaghy oqighalardy da elemey qoya almady. Qytay saq sayasat jýrgizdi, biraq qauipsizdik mәselelerin sheshude dәiektilik tanytty. Búl sayyp kelgende Shanhay yntymaqtastyq úiymynyng (ShYÚ) payda boluyna әkeldi.

1990 jyldardyng basynda týsiniksiz bolyp kóringen nәzik jәne óte kýrdeli mýddeler kýresining nәtiyjesinde úly derjavalar arasyndaghy bәsekelestikting negizgi salasy payda boldy. Búl kólik dәlizderining ainalasynda boldy. 1990 jyldardyng basynan bastap Amerika Qúrama Shtattary Reseyden tys jerlerge taralatyn jana dәlizder ashugha tyrysty.

Osyghan baylanysty Kavkaz ortalyq nýkte boldy, onda Baku-Djeyhannan TRASEKA-gha deyingi kóptegen әrtýrli jobalar payda boldy. IYdeya qúrlyqtyng ortalyghynda oqshaulanghan aimaq elderine kóbirek mýmkindikter berip, az tәueldilik beru boldy. Kólik dәlizderi mәselesi, әsirese 1990 jәne 2000 jyldary, kóptegen pikirtalastardyng taqyryby boldy.

Biraq sayyp kelgende, Ortalyq Aziya aimaghynyng ashyluyn barynsha arttyru iydeyasy barlyq úly derjavalar men iri aimaqtyq memleketterding qoldauyna ie boldy. Qytaydyng 2010 jyldyng basynan bastap «Bir beldeu, bir jol» bastamasyna (BRI) qatysuynyng artuy erekshe kýshti serpin berdi. 2020 jyldary búl «Orta dәliz» tújyrymdamasyn iske asyru arqyly odan әri damydy. 2022 jyldan keyin Resey Soltýstik-Ontýstik osi boyynsha damugha úmtyla bastady.

Sonymen qatar, Qazaqstan әrqashan qúrlyqishilik saudany damytudy jaqtap keldi. Búl tolyghymen qúrlyqtyng ortalyghynda, teniz sauda joldarynan alys ornalasqan elding mýddesine say boldy. Demek, Qazaqstan arqyly kez kelgen jobalardy jýzege asyru ony sauda joldarynyng qiylysyna ornalastyrar edi. Shyn mәninde, kólik dәlizderining jobalary kópvektorly sayasattyng negizi bolyp tabylady.

Sonymen qatar, olar aimaqty túraqtandyru faktory bolyp tabylady, sebebi sauda barlyq qatysushylar ýshin әrqashan tiyimdirek. Demek, kez kelgen mýddeler qaqtyghysy, әsirese úly derjavalar arasyndaghy, Qazaqstannyng ózining nemese basqa Ortalyq Aziya elderining mýddelerine say kelmeydi. Olardyng búl mәseledegi birlesken ústanymy úly jәne aimaqtyq derjavalardyng arasyndaghy bәsekelestikting bolashaghy turaly alandamauyna jetkilikti negiz beredi.

Olar aimaqtaghy elderding kópvektorly sayasaty búghan syltau bolmaytynyn biledi. Sondyqtan jobalar bәsekelese alady. Osy túrghydan alghanda, Ortalyq Aziya elderi óz jobalarymen kópvektorly sayasatty qoldaydy. Mysaly, Qazaqstan barlyq salalarda bir uaqytta kóptegen jobalardy jýzege asyruda.

Olargha Preziydent Qasym-Jomart Toqaevtyng Vashingtongha jaqynda jasaghan sapary kezinde qol qoyylghan kelisimder, sonday-aq atom elektr stansiyasyn salu siyaqty búrynghy jobalar kiredi. Bir stansiyany Resey, qalghan ekeuin Qytay salady. Áriyne, Orta dәlizdi damytu boyynsha Qytaymen birlesip jýzege asyrylatyn jobalar.

Sonymen, jana geosayasy shyndyq, barlyq kýrdeliligine qaramastan, songhy daghdarystar kezinde Ortalyq Aziya elderining kópvektorly sayasatyndaghy manevr jasau mýmkindigin azaytpaydy. Songhy jyldary múnday iydeyalar mezgil-mezgil payda bolyp keledi. Sol kezde kópshilik aimaq elderi óz baghyttaryn anyqtauy kerek dep aitqan. Biraq búl dúrys emes tәsil bolyp shyqty.

Kerisinshe, olardyng manevr jasau mýmkindigi artty, jәne búl kóbinese Ortalyq Aziya elderining ózderining kýsh-jigerin biriktirip, Qazaqstan men Ózbekstandy óz tobynan kóshbasshylar retinde anyqtay alghanyna baylanysty.

Áriyne, eng aldymen, songhy 30 jyldaghy ýzdiksiz kýsh-jigerding jәne BÚÚ Bas hatshysynyng orynbasary qyzmetin atqarghan Preziydent Toqaevtyng jeke tәjiriybesining arqasynda halyqaralyq sayasatta aitarlyqtay tәjiriybesi bar Qazaqstan. Búl formattyng úly derjavalar ýshin de ynghayly boluy manyzdy. Olar qazir damu jobalary boyynsha bәsekelesip jatyr, búl geosayasy qarama-qayshylyqty týbegeyli ózgertedi.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov,

S.Seyfullin atyndaghy Qazaq agrotehnikalyq zertteu uniyversiytetining dosenti, tarih ghylymdarynyng kandidaty

Abai.kz