Esterinizde bolsa ótken jyldyng qazan aiynda atalmysh taqyryp ayasynda alghashqy postymdy jariyalaghan edim. Odan beri bir jyldyng kóleminde aimaqtyq strategiyalyq sayasatta kóp ózgerister týbegeyli oryn alyp jatyr...

Siriya aumaghyndaghy DAESh-ting negizgi qaruly kýshteri dәl býgingi uaqytta Aughanstan aimaghyna toptalyp bolyp qaldy desek te bolady. Siriyadaghy DAESh kýshi songhy kezderi әlsiredi de, negizgi qaruly toptar Ortalyq Aziyany betke alyp Aughan topyraghyna aghylyp kete bardy. DAESh-ting Siriya aumaghyndaghy osy bir ólara әlsiz túsyn jiti baqylap otyrghan Qazaqstan "Jusan" jobasyn úiymdastyra qoydy da ónirdegi qandastarymyzdy elge әkelip aldy. Biraq, mynany anyq biluimiz kerek, ónirdegi sayasy oiyn búnymen bitken joq, ónirdegi sayasy oiyn endi bastaluy bek mýmkin...

2017'den beri Siriya aumaghynan jәne әlemning basqa da aimaqtarynan Aughan topyraghyna toptalghan DAESh kýshterining úzyn sany on myng dep boljanuda. Olar Aughanstandaghy jergilikti diny kýshtermen birigu prossessin ótkizip jatyr. Aughanstan aimaghy Siriyaday emes tauly, kýrdeli etnikalyq toptargha toly aimaq. Shabuylgha qolaysyz, qorghanugha ynghayly, yqtasyn aimaq.

Aughanstangha toptalyp jatqan DAESh kýshteri naqty neni kózdeui mýmkin? Búny olardyng aldaghy sayasy belsendi әreketinen túspaldaugha bolady... Óz basym mynaday ýsh týrli boljau aitamyn:

Birinshisi, DAESh-ting negizgi kózdeytin aimaghy- qytaydyng shynjang regiony. Óitkeni, Aughan aumaghyna jinalghan negizgi sayasy kýshter Shynjang aimaghymen kóbirek ilik-shatys bolugha tyrysuda. Aymaqtaghy jergilikti halyqtyng qytay sayasatyna degen ishki qynjyly syrtqy kýshterding de basty nysany men nazaryna iligude. Osy orayda ishki-syrtqy kýshterding belsendi qimyldauymen ónirdegi sayasy tәrtipti búzyp, qytaygha ashyq kýres jariyalau. Sonymen qatar qytaydyng "keruen jolyna" qarauyl qoyyp, jibek keruenderin tonau yaghny qytaydyng milliardtaghan qarjy salghan "bir jol bir beldeu" jobasynyng jolyn tosyp, qaraqshylyq isteu. Ol ýshin Aughan men tútas Ortalyq Aziyada diny fanattar belsendi qareketke kóshui tiyis.

Ekinshisi, Ortalyq Aziya basty nysan boluy bek mýmkin. Beldi әlemdik derjavalar DAESh arqyly Ortalyq Aziyany qauipti aimaqtargha ainaldyryp, sol qauipti seyiltu syltauymen Ortalyq Aziyada jana shekara, jana jýie ornatugha úrynuy mýmkin. Búl Aqsh, Qytay jәne Reseyding aimaqtaghy mýddeler qatynasy men qaqtyghysyna baylanysty. Siriyagha barghan qytaylyq DAESh kýshterining 95%-y qytay-tayland shekarasy arqyly ótkenin eskersek, Aughandaghy DAESh kýshterining Ortalyq Aziyany nysan etui әuelde qytaydyng mýddesine jaghady. Óitkeni, dәl qazirgi sәtte DAESh әskery qaruly kýsherine betpe-bet tótep beretin әskery qorghanys Ortalyq Aziya elderinde әli jasaqtalyp bolghan joq. Keshegi Arys oqighasy sonyng jýz bir mysaly jәne anyq kórinisi... Búnday dayyndyqsyz jýru qytaymen qauipsizdik salasy boyynsha dialogqa barugha mәjbýrleydi, yaghny biz ónirding qauipsizdigi ýshin qytaydyng әskery kýshine sýienuimiz mýmkin. Qytay birinshiden "sauda keruenderinin" amandyghy ýshin, ekinshiden ortalyq aziyanyng qauipsizdigi ýshin qorghanys kýshterin, әskery bazasyn әkelui mýmkin. Biraq búl birinshi kezekte Resey men Aqsh-qa únamaydy. Aqsh pen Resey jeke-jeke sayasy proektiler jobalap, qytay men DAESh kýshterining Aughan aumaghynan tys ónirde qimyldauyn birde tejep, birde qolpashtap otyruy mýmkin. Búnyng nәtiyjesi Ortalyq Aziyada jana sayasy kýshterding belsendi pozisiyasyn qalyptauy mýmkin yaghny biylikke Reseyshil kýshter, Batysshyl (Aqsh da bar) kýshter, Qytayshyl kýshter jәne Islamist kýshter belsendi aralasyp sayasy kýres astyrtyn jýrui mýmkin. Osynday uaqytta belgisizden payda bolghan sayasy "túlghalar" kóp boy kórsetui yqtimal. Aqsh-Qytay arasyndaghy sauda qatynasynyng nasharlauy jәne qytaydyng teniz aimaqtardaghy sauda jolynyng taryluy, Aqsh-tyng qytaydy teniz ailaghy arqyly posttarmen qorshauy qytaydyng teniz aimaghyndaghy ekonomikalyq kýshining Ortalyq Aziyagha qaray syrghytugha basty sebep boluda. Sondyqtan Ortalyq Aziya elderi qalasaq ta, qalamasaq ta qytay ekonomikasymen әbiger bolamyz. Eger, Aughan aumaghyndaghy DAESh kýshteri Ortalyq Aziyany kózdese ol qytaydyng ong jambasyna keldi dey ber. Onda qytay-tayland shekarasy arqyly Siriyagha ketip әbden ysylghan qaruly kýshter Aughan jerinde qytaydyng kókten tilegen orayyn derden tauyp bergen bolady.

Ýshinshisi, DAESh qaruly kýshteri Aughan jerining ózinde qareket etui mýmkin. Yaghny Aughan elin "ekinshi siriyagha" ainaldyryp aimaqtaghy derjavalardyng sayasy tepe-tendigin daghdarysqa úshyratu yqtimal. Búl әueli qytaygha sosyn Ortalyq Aziya men reseyge tiyimsiz. Qytay Aughandaghy DAESh-ting ózine yqpal etuin tosu ýshin shynjang aimaghyn odan ary jiti baqylaugha ala beredi. Qauipsizdik qorghanystary odan ary arttyrylady. Búnyng sony shynjang regionyn "qytaydaghy aughanystangha" ainaldyryp jiberui mýmkin. Biraq, búnyng taghy bir úshy shynjang regionyndaghy qytaydyng demografiyalyq sanyn (ósimin) azaytyp jiberui de mýmkin. Ishki qytaydan qaruly kýshter shynjang regionyna myndap kelgenimen, shynjang regionyn tastap ishki qytaygha aghylghan jergilikti qytaylyqtardyng sany jýz myndap kóbeni mýmkin.

Qosh, ne kerek! Ýsh boljamnyng ýsheui de Ortalyq Aziya elderine tiyimsiz. Meyli qanday boljau túspaldasaq ta sonynda kóbirek zardap shegetini Ortalyq Aziya elderi bolmaq. Endi, qaytpek kerek? Birinshiden, qytaydy jәne shynjang aimaghyn jiti zertteuge aluymyz kerek. Aymaqtardaghy strategiyaly zertteulerde jana kózqaras, jana tanym ortanuymyz kerek. Pikir men tanym qalyptauda kәsiby mamandardyng analitikasyna kóbirek jýginuimiz kerek. Ekinshiden, Aughan aimaghyn jiti qadaghalaugha aluymyz tiyis. Búl aimaqtardaghy dini, mәdeny ham sayasy janalyqtardy aptalap sarapqa saluymyz tiyis. Ordú, Poshtun jәne Parsy tilderin jaqsy mengergen kәsiby mamandardy jaryqqa shygharuymyz kerek. Aughandaghy songhy janalyqtardy jyldam saraptap otyruymyz kerek. Ýshinshiden, Ortalyq Aziya elderining ortaq әskery qorghanys kýshterin úiymdastyruymyz kerek. Ortalyq Aziya elderining ortaq armiyasy qúrylsa tipten qúba qúp bolmaq. Búl DAESh qaruly kýshterining Ortalyq Aziyagha qauip tóndiruin tosady, kelesi bir jaghy qytay әskery kýshine súranys bolmaydy.

Osynday ólara kezende Qazaq biyligine memleketshil túlghalardyng kóbirek kelgeni dúrys.

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