Amerikalyqtardyng qazir talqylap jatqan basty taqyryby – preziydent saylauy. Oghan 31 kýn qaldy. Bayden halyq arasynda tanymal bolghanymen, Tramp jenedi.

Múnday verdiktke jetelegen argumentter men analizdi tómende jazyp kóreyin.

Federaldy dengeydegi YouGov sayasy saualnamasynyng songhy esebine oray, amerikalyqtardyng 50 payyzy Baydendi qoldasa, 42 payyzy Trampqa dauys bergen. Qoghamdyq pikirdi anyqtaushy Rasmussen Reports esebinshe, Tramp 43 payyz, Bayden 51 payyz qoldau jinap otyr.

Bayden orta eseppen 8 payyzgha alda kelse de, onyng jeniletini aiqyn kórine bastady. Naqty sebepterge toqtalyp óteyik.

Bayden – sentrist.

AQSh sayasy alanyndaghy negizgi kýsh eki partiyada shoghyrlanghan. Demokratiyalyq partiya, yaghny solshyldar qoghamdyq jәne ekonomikalyq tendikti, mulitiymәdeniyetti, diny sekulyarizmdi, az últ ókilderi qúqyqtaryn (jergilikti amerikalyqtar, qara nәsildiler, latyn amerikalyqtar, aziyalyqtar t.b.) qorghaudy, genderlik tensizdikti (LGBTQ+) jon syndy liyberaldy iydeyalar men qorshaghan ortany qorghaudy qoldasa, respublikalyq partiya, yaghny onshyldar dәstýrli oilaudy, otbasy qúndylyqtary men dini basym qoghamdy, az salyq pen erkin naryqtyng ekonomikany rettegenin qoldaydy. Mysaly, demokrattar tabysy kóp azamattargha salyqtyng kóbeygenin jaqtasa, respublikalyqtar salyq barlyghyna birdey bolghanyn qalaydy. Demokrattar jahandanu ýshin syrtqy sayasatqa, әskery kýshke kóp qarjy júmsasa, respublikalyqtar ishki mәselelerdi sheshuge qarjyny lokalizasiyagha baghyttaydy. Birinshisi abortty zandastyrsa (pro-choice - D), ekinshisi abortty qylmysqa teneydi (pro-life - R); biri qaru iyemdenudi (gun control) qylmystyng tamyry dep bilse, taghy biri qarudy jeke qauipsizdik ýshin qoldaydy.

Osynday ýlken iydeologiyalyq separasiya amerikalyq qoghamdy ekige bólip otyr. Bayden solshyldar partiyasy atynan shyqqany ýshin, liyberaldy qúndylyqtardy algha tartuy tiyis. Biraq ol preziydenttik kampaniya bastaghaly beri sentrist demokrat retinde kózge týsti. Al partiya atynan nominasiya útyp alghan son, solshyldardyng qoldauyn joghaltyp almau ýshin tegin medisina (free health care), tegin oqu (tuition free), auqatty amerikalyqtargha salyqty kóbeytu syndy solshyl iydeyalardy baghdarlamasyna qosty. Tipti aziyalyq jәne afrikalyq tekti amerikalyq Kamala Harristi ózining viyse-preziydenti retinde bekitti. Biraq tek solshyldardy emes, onshyl konservatorlardy da ózine qaratu ýshin Defund Police syndy әreketterdi qoldamaytynyn aityp, әli de sentrist ekenin bildirip otyr. Baydenning múnday pozisiyasy konservatorlardyng oghan dauys beruine garant bolmaydy. Kerisinshe, progressivti (birazy anarhister syndy radikaldy solshyldar) solshyldardyng dauysynan aiyrady.

Popular vote vs. college electorate

2016 jyly AQSh preziydenti saylauynda Tramp Hillary Klintongha qaraghanda 3 milliongha az dauys jinady. Biraq preziydent atanyp otyr. Dәl osy jaghday AQSh-taghy preziydent saylau jýiesining ózge elderden ózgeshe ekenin dәiekteydi.

AQSh Konstitusiyasynda bekitilgen saylau jýiesi electoral college dep atalady. Búl halqy az shtattardyng dauysy estilmey qalmauy ýshin qúrylghan jýie. Konstitusiyada jazylghanday әr shtat óz territoriyasynda ómir sýretin halyq sanyna oray Federaldy Kongreske baratyn ókilder sanyn anyqtaydy. Mysaly, Alyaskadan 3 ókil shyqsa, Kaliforniya shtatynan 55 ókil bekitiledi. Jalpy barlyq shtattardyng jәne Kolumbiya okrugi ókilderining sany 538-di qúraydy. Búl Kongrestegi ókilderi palatasyndaghy (House of Representatives) 435 pen Senattaghy 100 zang shygharushy jәne Kolumbiya okrugindegi Vashington qalasy atynan shyghatyn 3 ókilding qosyndysynan túrady.

Demek preziydenttikke ýmitker saylauda jenu ýshin minimum 270 ókil dauysyn, yaghny barlyq dauystyng teng jartysynan kóbin jinauy tiyis. Amerikalyq saylau jýiesining taghy bir artyqshylyghy ýmitkerlerding shtat dengeyindegi dauys jinau jýiesinde jatyr. Mysaly, Florida shtatynyng ókil sany 29. Eger demokrat kem degende 15 ókil sanyn iyemdene alsa, shtat atyndaghy barlyq 29 dauysty óz enshisine jazady. Osylay әr shtatta eki ýmitker dauysty iyemdenu ýshin talasady. Mysaly, Kaliforniya jәne Niu-York syndy ókil sany kóp shtattarda demokrattar ýnemi jense, Tehas, Florida jәne ontýstiktegi jәne ortalyq batystaghy shtattarda respublikalyqtar jenip kelgen. Biraq Michigan, Pensilivaniya, Ogayo, Viskonsin syndy shtattardyng tandauy jii ózgerip túrady. Sondyqtan Bayden de, Tramp ta osy qúbylmaly shtattarda jii preziddenttik ralliylerin úiymdastyryp jatyr.

Ulitra-solshyldar Baydendi qoldamaydy, biraq ulitra-onshyldar Trampty qoldaydy. Sol jaq fronttaghy progressivter (ulitra-solshyldar) Baydendi qoldamauy onyng saylauda jeniluine taghy bir negiz boluy mýmkin. Baydenning respublikalyqtardy ózine qaratu ýshin jasalyp jatqan sentristik әreketteri ulitra-solshyldardy alastatady.

Populizm effekti jәne “qajetsiz” Debat

Ótkendegi preziydenttik debatty kórgen bolarsyzdar. Debattan keyin jariyalanghan týrli poll nәtiyjeleri Baydendi jengenin aighaqtaghanymen, Tramptyng populistik effekti basymdyraq kórindi.

Mysaly, Tramp kez kelgen aqparatty óz basyna tiyimdi etip aitugha tyrysady. Onyng ras ne ótirik ekeni manyzdy emes. Mysaly, debat barysynda ol BIG TEN amerikalyq futbol jarysyna, Portlend qalasynyng sheriyfi ózin qoldaytynyna, hronikalyq auruy. Bar amerikalyqtar sanyna, ózi ashqan óndiristegi júmys sanyna, poshta arqyly dauys beruge, farmasevtikalyq dәrumender baghasyna jәne taghy basqa mәselelerge qatysty ótirik aitty. Biraq búl ótirikterding barlyghy óz abyroyyn kóteruge baghyttalghandyqtan, onyng osynday populistik jýrisi dauys berushiler arasynda triumfaldy effekt qaldyryp otyr. Konservativti basylymdar Tramp tarapynan aitylghan ótirikterge emes, Baydenning keybir súraqtarda qysylyp qalghanyn jarysa kórsetti. Al liyberaldy basylymdar Tramp ótirikterin sanaumen boldy. Biraq, eng ókinishtisi, Tramptqa qatysty faktcheking onyng populizmin jene almaydy.

Búl debatta qanday mәselelerding kóterilgeni emes, olardyng qalay talqylanghany manyzdyraq ekeni aiqyn kórindi. Debattan bizge orta amerikalyq dauys berushining obrazynyng qanday ekenin kóruge bolady jәne ol obraz dengeyining tómendep jatqany bayqalady. Bir sózben aitqanda, orta dengeyli amerikalyq emosiyalyq tolyqtyrudy qalaydy. Oghan statistika, rasionaldy oi, derekke sýiengen argumentter, aitylatyn oilardyng dәlel men faktige sýienui manyzdy emes.

Solshyldar ýshin sayasy korrektti bolu óte manyzdy. Olardan shyqqan ýmitker әrbir individumnyng tandauy men sheshimin kemsitpeu ýshin sayasy korrektti boluy kerek. Biraq Bayden de debat barysynda emosiyagha berilip, Trampty “Putinning kýshigi” dep mazaqtap, “myna kloun qashan dauysyn óshiredi?” dedi. Búl sayasatta 47 jyl jýrgen demokrat ýshin jiberilmeui tiyis qatelik. Basqasha aitqanda, Bayden Trampty jenu ýshin Tramptyng dengeyine týsip, “ayyptau stiylin” qaytalap otyr. Ortasha amerikalyq dauys berushige de sol aiyptaular fleshmoby kerek. Debat barysynda kimning dauysy jiyirek, juanyraq jәne qataldau shyqsa, sol әleumettik jelilerde trendke ainalady. Ony bilgen Tramp Baydenge bir sóilemin dúrys bitiruge mýmkindik bermedi. Ýnemi sózin bólip otyrdy.

Jalpylap aitqanda, ótirik aitu ótken debattyng negizgi elemetterining birine ainaldy. Eger eki ýmitker de naqty derekterge sýienbey, bir-birin aiyptap, ótirik aita berse, onda debatta kimning jengeni qanday kriyteriyler boyynsha anyqtalady? Búl ritorikalyq súraq!

Qoghamdaghy iydeologiyalardyng qaqtyghysy men onyng saldary jayly kóbirek bilginiz kelse, Duglas Murrey esimdi aghylshyn konservator jazushysynyng “Kópting esalandyghy” (The Madness of Crowds) deytin kitabyn oqugha kenes beremin.

Joldas Órisbaydyng әleumettik jelidegi jazbasy

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