Halyqaralyq sayasatta songhy bes jylda eng kóp pikirtalasqa arqau bolghan mәsele Iran shyghar. Qúmalaqshy sarapshylardyng AQSh-tyng Irangha әne, soghys ashady, mine, soghys ashady degenine de qúlaghymyzdyng eti ýirenuge ainalghan edi. Alayda, songhy ailarda oryn alghan jaghdaydar men órbip jatqan oqighalar Parsy shyghanaghynda taghy bir soghystyng bolu yqtimaldylyghyn eselep arttyra týskendey. Múnday boljam jasaugha Batys elderining Irangha sanksiya saluy, al Iran biyligining sanksiyalar men týrli esketulerdi qúlaqtaryna qystyrmay uran bayytudy jalghastyruy sebep bolyp otyr. Degenmen, soghys turaly pikirtalastarda sarapshylardyng arasynda kózqaras qayshylyghynyng bar ekenin anyq kóremiz. Keybiri bolyp jatqan oqighalargha qarap soghys bastalugha jaqyn, yqtimal shabuylgha әlem júrtshylyghynyng boylaryn ýiretu júmystary jýrgizilip jatyr dese, basqalary kerisinshe, múnday ashyq qadamdar arqyly soghys ashylmaydy, tek qorqytu júmystary jýrgizilude degen pikirde.  Eger Irannyng urandy bayytu sayasaty men oghan qarsylardyng mәselesine syrt kózben qarasaq, eki jaqtyng da keltirip otyrghan argumentterining dúrys ekendigine kóz jetkizemiz.

Halyqaralyq sayasatta songhy bes jylda eng kóp pikirtalasqa arqau bolghan mәsele Iran shyghar. Qúmalaqshy sarapshylardyng AQSh-tyng Irangha әne, soghys ashady, mine, soghys ashady degenine de qúlaghymyzdyng eti ýirenuge ainalghan edi. Alayda, songhy ailarda oryn alghan jaghdaydar men órbip jatqan oqighalar Parsy shyghanaghynda taghy bir soghystyng bolu yqtimaldylyghyn eselep arttyra týskendey. Múnday boljam jasaugha Batys elderining Irangha sanksiya saluy, al Iran biyligining sanksiyalar men týrli esketulerdi qúlaqtaryna qystyrmay uran bayytudy jalghastyruy sebep bolyp otyr. Degenmen, soghys turaly pikirtalastarda sarapshylardyng arasynda kózqaras qayshylyghynyng bar ekenin anyq kóremiz. Keybiri bolyp jatqan oqighalargha qarap soghys bastalugha jaqyn, yqtimal shabuylgha әlem júrtshylyghynyng boylaryn ýiretu júmystary jýrgizilip jatyr dese, basqalary kerisinshe, múnday ashyq qadamdar arqyly soghys ashylmaydy, tek qorqytu júmystary jýrgizilude degen pikirde.  Eger Irannyng urandy bayytu sayasaty men oghan qarsylardyng mәselesine syrt kózben qarasaq, eki jaqtyng da keltirip otyrghan argumentterining dúrys ekendigine kóz jetkizemiz.
Iran biyligi ózderining urandy tek qana beybit maqsat ýshin (әriyne eshqanday el urandy әskery maqsattta paydalanu ýshin bayytyp jatyrmyz demeytini anyq), ózderining energetikalyq qauipsizdigin qamtamasyz etu jolynda bayytyp otyrghandyghyn algha tartady. Olardyng «keybir elder yadrolyq qaru ústap otyr, kóptegen memleketter beybit maqsatta atomdy paydalanyp jýr, endeshe, bizge nemese biz siyaqty elder nege paydalanbasqa» dep aitylatyn uәjderi de oryndy. Oghan ghylymdy damytu, jana tehnologiyalardy mengeru, zaman aghymynan qalmau dep sozyla beretin dәiekterdi qossanyz, Irannyng búl salany iygeruin tejeuge tyrysu әdiletsizdik bolyp kórinetini anyq.
Degenmen, Irannyng uran bayytu nysandaryn bombalaugha AQSh-tan beter qúmbyl bolyp otyrghan Izrailidi de týsinuge bolady. Izrailiding qazirgi jaghdayy jan-jaghynan tóbetter qorshap alghan, alasúrghan qasqyrdy elestedi. Býgingi tanda kórshi músylman elderinde Izrailiding odaqtasy qalmady. Osyghan deyin qoyan-qoltyq aralasyp ketpese de sәlemi týzu, baylanysy birqalypty damyp kelgen Mysyr men Týrkiya da teris ainaldy. Tipti evreylerding kórshi arab elderimen aradaghy salqyndyghynyng terendey bastaghanyna qarap, ekinshi bir Arab-Izraili soghysynyng tóbesi kórinude degen boljamdar da jeldey esip jýr. Endeshe, Iran uran bayytudy mengerip, yadrolyq qaru shyghara alatyn bolsa, onda Izraili men onyng ainalasyndaghy músylman elderining qay-qaysysymen bolsyn kiykiljing shygha qalsa, Irannyng qarsylas elge yadrolyq qaru berui yqtimal ekendigin joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Qazirding ózinde Irannyng Hizbolla siyaqty úiymdy qarjylandyryp, astyrtyn qaru-jaraqpen qamtamasyz etip, al ol úiym bolsa әrdayym raketalarymen Izrailidi qorqytyp otyrghany belgili. Sondyqtan yadrolyq qaruy bar Iran Izrailiding qauipsizdigi ýshin óte qauipti.
Bas-kóz bolyp jýrgen inisine qauip tóngende janynan tabylar qamqor agha siyaqty AQSh-tyng Izrailige shabuyldatyp qoyyp, qarap otyramaytyny taghy belgili. Onyng ýstine superderjavanyng ýreylenuine basqa negiz bar. Qazirding ózinde irandyqtar songhy Shahap zymyranynyng úshu úzaqtyghyn 1500-2000 shaqyrymgha deyin jetkize aldy jәne ony synaqtan ótkizu arqyly dәleldedi. Tipti Izrailiding resmy organdary «búl qashyqtyqty әldeqayda úzarta aldy » degen joramal taratyp jýr. Olay bolsa, býgin bolmasa erteng Irannyng AQSh-qa jete alatyn qashyqtyqtaghy kontiynentaralyq zymyran jasay alu mýmkindigining bar ekendigin joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Onday jaghdayda qazirgi raketadan qorghanys jýiesining tiyimdiligi qanshalyqty bolatyny da ashyq emes. Endeshe, dinshil Irandyqtardyng «nómiri birinshi shaytanynyn» mazalanatyn jóni bar, yaghni, ertengi kýni opyq jep qalmas ýshin aldyn-alu әreketin jasap jatqan týri.
Eger Irandaghy shiittik diny rejimning urandy bayytuynan tek qana Izraili at-tonyn ala qasha ýrkip otyr, al, basqa músylman elderi «shoq-shoq oghan sol kerek» dep qarap otyr desek qatelesemiz. Irannyng yadrolyq qarugha ie boluynan Izrailiden kem emes dәrejede qauiptenetin taghy bir el bar. Ol - Saud Arabiyasy. Óitkeni, Saud rejiymi óndiretin múnaydyng basym bóligi músylman shiitter qonystanghan ónirde jatyr. Eger әlgi shiittterde separatistik pighyl payda bolyp, ol bas kóterse, «múnayymyzdyng aqshasy tek qana ortalyqta otyrghan koroli әuletining ghana qaltasyna týsip jatyr» degen oy boylaryn dendese, (múnday oidyng qazirde bar ekenin joqqa shygharmaymyz) arabiyalyq shiitterding Irangha arqa sýieytini belgili nemese yadrolyq qarugha ege Iran Saud Arabiyasyn әlsiretu ýshin әligindey  iydeyagha dem berui de mýmkin. Al búl elding astyrtyn dem bere alatynyn osy jyly Bahreynde oryn alghan oqighalar kórsetip berdi. Onday jaghdayda Saud әuletining qolynan keler shara joq, qazir әskery tepe-tendik saqtalyp túr, alayda yadrolyq qaru búl tepe-tendikting auytquyna alyp keleri anyq. Eger Iran yadrolyq qaru shygharatyn bolsa, biz de osy baghytta júmys jýrgizetin bolamyz dep otyrghan Saud әuleti Irannyng uran bayytudy toqtatuy ýshin jasalghan әreketterding barlyghyn qos qolyn kóterip qoldaydy.
Tek qana Saud әuleti emes, aimaqtaghy balanstyng búzyluynan qorqatyn kishkentay bolsa da ambisiyasy zor Katar, múnaygha bay, keshe ghana Irak ekspansiyasynan zardap shekken Kuveyt jәne osynday týrli ishki-syrtqy faktorlargha baylanysty basqa arab elderi de negizinen Irannyng uran bayytu baghdarlamasyna qarsy. Onyng ýstine osyghan deyin Parsy shyghanaghynda balansty saqtaugha septigin tiygizip kelgen, osy ónirdegi iri ýsh elding biri Iraktyng biylik basyna Iranmen jaqyndasuy yqtimal shiittik top keldi. Qazirding ózinde búl eki elding arasynda baylanystyng jandanuynan seskenetinin sarapshylar aityp jatyr.
Osynday sebepterge baylanysty Irannyng uran bayytu tehnologiyasyna qol jetkizuine kedergiler jasalyp, odan bas tarttyru ýshin sanksiya qoyyldy. Alayda, engizilgen sanksiyanyng Iran biyligin rayynan qaytartatyn týri kórinbeydi. Olar uran bayytudan bas tartpaytynyn aityp otyr. Onday jaghdayda óz mýddesi ýshin jogharydaghy elder әskery kýshpen toqtatugha tyrysatyny anyq. Búl - Irandy bombalau. Biraq Irandy bombalau osyghan deyin Irak, Aughanstan men Liviya siyaqty onaylau bolmaytyn týri bar. Taratyp aitar bolsaq, BÚÚ Qauipsizdik kenesining mýsheleri Resey men Qytay qarsy, territoriyalyq qiyndyqtar, múnay tapshylyghynyng oryn alu yqtimaldylyghy jәne salystyrmaly týrde alghanda atalghan memleketterge qaraghanda, Irannyng ozyghyraq tehnologiyasynyng boluy.
Resey men Qytay Irandy bombalaugha qarsy ekendigi jәne búl mәsele BÚÚ-nyng Qauipsizdik kenesinde talqylansa, oghan veto qoyatyny anyq (olardy astyrtyn ýgittep kóndirmese). Onday jaghdayda Irangha qarsy soghys ashu halyqaralyq qúqyqqa say bolmaghandyqtan «ZANSYZ» bolyp tabylady. Irakqqa qarsy zansyz soghys ashqan AQSh-tyng búl joly múnday soghys ashugha jýregi daular ma eken? Irak soghysyn sayasattanushylar әlem monopolyarly jýiede ekenin kórsetti dep baghalasa, búl joly onday shabuyl jasalsa, jahan kóppolyarly jýiege ótti dep jýrgen sarapshylar qatelesti dep baghalaytyny anyq.
Sonday-aq, Irannyng tehnologiyasy da, әl-auqaty da basqa arab elderine qaraghanda jogharyraq damyghan memleket sanalady. 2000 shaqyrymgha deyin úshu mýmkindigi bar ShaHap zymyrandary atalghan qashyqtyqtaghy Amerika әskery bazalaryn men Izrailige tolyqqandy soqqy bere alady. Sonday-aq Irakqa qarsy әskery operasiyalar ýshin territoriyasyn qoldanugha rúqsat bergen Parsy shyghanaghyndaghy arab elderi men Týrkiya jәne basqa memleketter búl joly Irannyng zymyrandarynan seskenip bombalaushy úshaqtardyng óz aumaqtarynan úshuyna rúqsat bermeui mýmkin. Búl, әriyne, territoriyalyq qiyndyqtardyng tuyndauyna alyp keledi. Sonymen birge, Iran ózderine qarsy soghys ashylatyn bolsa, Parsy shyghanaghyndaghy Hormuz búghazyn bekitip tastaytyndyqtaryn aityp eskertu jasap otyr. Al su jolymen tasymaldanatyn әlemdik múnaydyng shamamen ýshten biri  osy búghazdan ótetindigin eskersek, múnyng zardabynyng ekonomikagha qanshalyqty zor bolatynyn shamalay beruge bolady. Alayda, búl aimaqtan tasymaldanatyn múnaydyng negizgi tútynushylary (85%) Japoniya, Ýndistan, Ontýstik Koreya, Týrkiya jәne Qytay siyaqty Aziya elderi bolghandyqtan (búl elderding japa-tarmaghay Irangha aliternativ múnay eksporttaushy izdey bastaghanyna qarap-aq, bir tyqyrdyng tayanghanyn boljaugha bolatyn shyghar. Al, Batystyng ekonomikasyna әseri ýlken bola qoymas. Degenmen, Iran Hormuzdy úzaq uaqyt bekitip ústap túra almas, óitkeni Ýndi múhitynda jýrgen Amerika әskery kemeleri búl strategiyalyq búghazdy tez arada ashugha baryn salady.  Alayda Parsy shyghanaghynan keletin múnaydyng birneshe kýnge ýzilui jahanda múnay tapshylyghyn tudyrary anyq, oghan Iran múnayyna sanksiya salghan EO-qa mýshe emes memleketterding soghys ashylghannan keyin múnay satyp alu mýmkindigi bolmaytynyn qossaq, múnay baghasynyng sharyqtaytynyn esepteuge bolady (búl túrghydan qaraghanda Iran soghysy Qazaqstangha «paydaly» shyghar... Múnaydan keletin tabys artady, әriyne, ol qarjynyng qayda qúiylatyny basqa mәsele...). Sondyqtan Irangha shabuyldaudyng aldynda әlem múnay mәselesin sheship aluy kerek. Áytse de, Saud Arabiyasy bastaghan arab elderi әlem qansha múnay qajet etse, sonsha múnay óndiretin bolamyz dep belsenip otyr.  
Jogharydaghy sebepterge baylanysty AQSh pen Izraili eger Irangha qarsy soghys ashatyn bolsa, birinshi kezekte zymyrandar ornatylghan nysandardyng barlyghyn bir mezette óz zymyrandarymen atqylap, zaqymdap isten shygharuy qajet. Sonda ghana esh alansyz bombalaugha mýmkindik tuady. Biraq múnda basqa bir týitkil bar. Izraili territoriyasynan jәne AQSh-tyng Jerorta tenizi men Ýndi múhityndaghy әskery kemelerinen atylghan ol zymyrandar Irangha jetkenshe biraz uaqyt alady. Sәikesinshe, Irandyqtar ózderine qarsy zymyrandardyng atylghanyn biletin bolsa, qarsy soqqy retinde zymyrandaryn atyp ýlgeredi. Múndaghy gәp Irannyng onday shabuyldy kóre alatyn tehnologiyasynyng bolmauynda jatyr. Óitkeni jer sharynyng kez-kelgen týkpirinen atylghan  zymyrandardy kóre alatyn tehnologiya sanauly memlekette ghana bar. Irangha zymyrandardyng atylghanyn eskertui mýmkin, jogharydaghy tehnologiyagha ie memleketterding biri - bizding soltýstik kórshimiz bolyp tabylady. Endeshe, Resey Iran biyligin shabuyldaushy zymyrandardyng atylghandyghy turaly eskerte alady.
Onyng ýstine, Irannyng urandy bayytu nysandary jer astyna tereng boylay ornalasqan, salynghan kezde osynday bir kiykiljinderding oryn alu yqtimaldylyghy josparlanyp, qorghanysh qabileti nyghaytylyp, jan-jaqty qauipsizdikter eskerilgen. Sondyqtan da jәy bombalarmen ol nysandardy zaqymdap isten shygharu óte qiyn. Izrailidikter bolsa, ol nysandardyng kirer jolyn bombalap, qayta qalpyna keltirilgenshe úzaq uaqyt aluyn oilastyruda.  Mýmkin ghalymdardyng da kózin jongdy josparlap otyrghan bolar. Ózderine mәlim alty uran zertteu ortalyqtarynyng barlyghyn zaqymdap, Irannyng uran baghdarlamasyn uaqytsha toqtatu ghana mýmkin ekeni aityluda.  
Kórip otyrghanymyzday, Irangha qarsy soghys ashu onaygha soqpaydy, alayda, jogharyda keltirgen sebepterge baylanysty ashpasa taghy bolmaydy... Óitkeni әlemdegi eng tiyimdi júmys jasaytyn qúpiya agenttikterding qataryna kiretin Mossad Irannyng urandy iygeruine az ghana uaqyt qalghanyn aityp baybalam saluda (mýmkin búl әlem júrtshylyghy men sayasatkerlerin soghys ashtyrugha iytermeleu qadamy bolar). Al Iran bolsa, alghan betinen qaytpay, uran bayytu isin jalghastyru ýstinde. Endeshe, ýderis osy qalpynda jyljityn bolsa, Parsy shyghanaghynda taghy bir bomba dausy estiletinin boljau qiyn emes. Búl tek uaqyttyng enshisi. Qashan ashylady degen súraqqa kelgende sarapshylardyng pikirining bir arnadan shyqpaytynyn kóremiz. Biri osy jyldyng sәuir aiynda bastalatynyn aitsa, ekinshisi jaz ailarynda ashylyp, Obama múny saylau kampaniyasynda tiyimdi paydalanatyn bolady degendi aitady, basqalary saylaudan keyin (Amerikadaghy saylau ekeni aitpasaq ta týsinikti) ghana boluy yqtimal degenge toqtaydy.
Irangha qarsy soghys ashu ýshin jogharydaghy kedergilerding barlyghyn jong qajet. Kóptegen memleketterding kelisimi kerek ekeni taghy kórinip túr. Yaghni, uaqyt alatyn sayasiy-burokratiyalyq júmystar shash etekten. Olardyng barlyghyn sheshpey túryp, soghys ashu mýmkin emes, endeshe, AQSh-tyng Iraktan әsker shygharudy bastauynyng astarynda Irannyng zymyrany jetetin aimaqtan sarbazdaryn úzaqqa alyp ketu sayasaty jatqan joq pa eken degen oy keledi. Aughanstandaghy da negizgi kýshterin әketu arqyly yqtimal soqqylardyng aldyn-alugha tyrysyp jatqanday. Al sanksiya engizu arqyly Irannyng ekonomikasyn әlsirete berudi de amerikalyq strategter kýni búryn dayyndap qoyghan shyghar. Múndaghy maqsat «Irannyng ishinde әleumettik arazdyqty qozdyru»  ekeni kórinip túr. Mýmkin jaghdayy auyrlap, beldikterin qysugha narazy halyq biylikke qysym kórsetu arqyly uran sayasatynan bas tarttyratyn shyghar degen esek dәme de jatqan bolar... Qalay desek te, Irannyng ishinde býlik shygharyp, biylikti auystyru arqyly uran mәselesin sheshu oiynyng bar ekendigin joqqa shygharugha bolmaydy. Áriyne, rejim auystyru qazir qiyn emes, tek ol rejim kýtken ýmitti aqtay ma degen súraq kókeyge keledi. Búlay dep aituymyzgha kezinde  biylikke diny fundamentalister kelse, dәl býiirden «ateist» KSRO-gha qarsy bir memleket payda bolady degen oimen, AQSh-tyng Irannyng osy kýngi rejiymining ornauyna ózindik ýles qosqany, ony alghashqylardyng biri bolyp tanyghany negiz bolyp otyr. Alayda, ol rejim ýmitti aqtamady, kerisinshe, Ayatolla «eng basty shaytan» dep AQSh-ty atady. «Auzy kýigen ýrip ishedi» demekshi, búl joly rejim tandaghanda qapy qalmaugha, mýlt ketpeuge tyrysuy zandy.

«Abay-aqparat»

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11927720

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2095799/West-scrambles-avoid-Israeli-attack-Iran-come-months.html