Býgingi Resey Putindik geostrategiyalyq «danyshpandyqtyn» arqasynda, ózining dramalyq jәne destruktivtiligi boyynsha Aughan soghysy kezindegi KSRO-daghy jaghdaydan aitarlyqtay nashar jaghdaygha tap boldy.

1979 jyldan 1989 jylgha deyin Kenes Odaghy 15 myngha juyq kenes jauyngerining ómirin qighan, úzaqqa sozylghan jәne nәtiyjesiz qaqtyghysqa týsti. Búl kenestik imperiyanyng ydyrauyn tezdetken auyr onjyldyq boldy. Degenmen, qazirgi shyndyqpen salystyrghanda búl epizodqa úqsaydy.

Týrli tәuelsiz derekkózderding jәne Batystyng barlau qyzmetining baghalauy boyynsha, 2025 jylgha qaray Reseyding Ukrainadaghy shyghyny - qaza tapqandar men auyr jaralanghandardy da esepke alghanda, bir million adamgha jaqyndaydy. Búl tek әskery túrghydan ghana emes, demografiyalyq túrghydan alghanda da apatty kórsetkish.

Million degeniniz jay ghana statistika emes. Búl shanyraghy oiran bolghan otbasylar, qanyrap bos qalghan ýiler, enbekke jaramdy erlerden aiyrylghan tútas ónirler. Osynyng ayasynda әlem oqshaulanudyng ekinshi tolqynyn bastaydy.

2025 jyly újymdyq Batys qabyldaghan jana sanksiyalar tek әskery sektorgha nemese qarjy sektoryna ghana emes, sonymen qatar Resey ekonomikasynyng ózegi – tehnologiyalyq tizbekterge, energetikalyq sektorgha, logistikagha da әser etip otyr. Ay ótken sayyn Resey ónerkәsibi nasharlap, batys komponentterin, mashinalary men tehnologiyalaryn joghaltuda. Búl jay ghana tejeu ​​emes - búl tehnologiyalyq degradasiyagha tap bolu degen sóz.

Sonymen qatar, biz geosayasy qarsylasty jýieli týrde әlsiretuge baghyttalghan AQSh-tyng syrtqy sayasy doktrinasy – «neoreyganizm» strategiyasynyng qayta oraluynyng kuәsi bolyp otyrmyz. Bir kezderi Ronalid Reygan KSRO-ny qarulanu jarysy men múnay baghasynyng tómendeui arqyly qajytugha úmtylghany siyaqty, býgin Vashington da osynday baghytta әreket etude: odaqtastargha jappay qaru jetkizu, aqparattyq qysym, kiyberoperasiyalar jәne ekonomikalyq túnshyqtyru.

Búl jana strategiyanyng eng manyzdy elementi Saud Arabiyasynyng ústanymy boldy. Er-Riyad AQSh-pen odaqtasa otyryp, múnay naryghynda agressivti oiyndy bastap, baghany jasandy týrde tómendetti. Búl múnay men gaz eksportyna tәueldi Resey budjetine auyr soqqy. Áskery shyghyndardyng ósuimen birge kiristerding toqyrauy bankrottyqtyng tikeley joly bolyp tabylady.

Múnday jaghdayda Reseydegi sayasy jýie qyzu kezenine ótedi. Biylikting ortalyqtandyryluy, oppozisiyanyng kez kelgen týrin basyp-janshu, qoghamdy militarizasiyalau jәne tausylghansha júmys istep túrghan ekonomika – múnyng bәri tozghan rejimning klassikalyq belgileri. Jýie tek ýrey, ýgit-nasihat jәne kýshti baqylau arqyly ghana saqtalady. Biraq múnday qúrylymdardyng erte me, kesh pe kýireytinin tarih biledi. Al qúrylym neghúrlym qatang bolsa, onyng qúlauy soghúrlym kýshti bolady.

Resey býginde keng auqymdy daghdarystyng tabaldyryghynda túr, bәlkim ózining qazirgi tarihyndaghy eng tereng daghdarys. Búl tek ekonomikalyq nemese әskery emes, búl túlghanyn, maghynanyng jәne baghyttyng daghdarysy. Kýrdeli ishki transformasiyasyz, avanturizm men imperiyalyq oilaudan bas tartpay, el әlsirep qana qoymay, ydyrau qaupine úshyraydy. Kenes Odaghynyng taghdyry qaytalana ma nemese odan da dramalyq oqighalardyng kuәsi bolamyz ba, ony jaqyn bolashaq kórsetedi.

Qazirgi jaghdaydy uaqytsha daghdarys emes, jýieli kýireuding tabaldyryghy retinde qarastyratyn bolsaq, onda eriksiz súraq tuyndaydy: Qazirgi Reseyding kýireui qanday boluy mýmkin?  Eng yqtimal ssenariylerding keybirin qarastyrayyq.

«IMPERIYaNYNG TIGISI SÓGILDI»: ETNIKALYQ SEPARATIZM

Birinshi: Resey kóp últty memleket, onyng ishinde ondaghan respublikalar men avtonomiyalyq oblystar bar. Olardyng kópshiligining ózindik ereksheligi, tili, mәdeniyeti jәne eng bastysy – ortalyqtan alshaqtau sezimi bar. Federativtik biylikting әlsireui men ekonomikalyq kýireu jaghdayynda Soltýstik Kavkaz, Tatarstan, Bashqúrtstan, Yakutiya (Saha), Tyva jәne Buryatiya respublikalary KSRO nemese Yugoslaviyanyng ydyrauyn mysal ete otyryp, tәuelsizdik nemese avtonomiya jariyalauy mýmkin.

POTENSIALDY KATALIZATORLAR

• jappay kedeylik pen ashtyq,
• perspektivasy joq aimaqtardy militarizasiyalau,
• syrtqy qoldau (onyng ishinde diasporalar men sheteldik odaqtastar tarapynan),
• ishki qaruly qaqtyghystar.

«SIBIR RESPUBLIKASY»: EKONOMIKALYQ FEDERALIZM

Hanty-Mansiysk okrugi, Krasnoyarsk ólkesi, Yamal jәne Irkutsk oblysy siyaqty resurstary bay aimaqtar qaytarymyna tiyisti damu kórmesten, úzaq uaqyt boyy ortalyqty tamaqtandyryp keledi.

Ortalyqtandyrylghan baqylaudyng tolyq kýireuimen olar ekonomikalyq tәuelsiz blokqa birigui mýmkin. Tipti Qytaydyng ýnsiz qamqorlyghyna úmtyluy ghajap emes. Mine, osylaysha Sibir (nemese Oral) respublikasy degen – shyghys naryqtargha baghdarlanghan jәne basqarugha pragmatikalyq kózqarasy bar federativtik qúrylym payda boluy mýmkin.

«ÁSKERY YDYRAU»: QAUIPSIZDIK KÝShTERINING BAQYLAUYNDAGhY AYMAQTAR

Ósip kele jatqan haos jaghdayynda jergilikti qauipsizdik kýshteri (oblystyq qolbasshylar, gubernatorlar, Resey Últtyq gvardiyasynyn, FSB jәne Ishki ister ministrligi) tәuelsiz oiynshylar retinde әreket ete bastaghanda basqarudyng feodaldyq týrine kóshu mýmkin.

Olar óz aimaqtarynda syrtqy aralasudy bógep, kýshpen biylikti saqtay alady. Búl eng qauipti ssenariy: mýddeleri qayshy keletin birneshe «miniy-diktaturalar» payda boluy.

«MÁSKEU QABYRGhASY»: ORTALYQTY OQShAULAU

Mәskeu jәne Ortalyq Reseyding bir bóligi qolaysyz aimaqtarmen qorshalghan, qaldyq quaty bar oqshaulanghan anklavqa ainaluy mýmkin. Búl ssenariyde Kremli qorshaudaghy bekiniske ainalady, onda biylik astana men onyng ainalasyndaghy aimaqtardy baqylaugha alady, biraq elding qalghan bóligin basqara almaydy.

«SYRTQY BAQYLAU»: ELDING HALYQARALYQ BAQYLAUGhA BÓLINUI

Eger Resey yadrolyq qarudyng aghyp ketui jәne auqymdy gumanitarlyq apat qaupimen ydyray bastasa, negizgi salalarda syrtqy baqylau engizilui mýmkin. Búl Murmanskidegi BÚÚ aimaghy, yadrolyq nysandargha halyqaralyq baqylau, Qytaydyng Sibirdegi «kómegi» nemese Kavkazdaghy týrik yqpaly boluy mýmkin.

RESEYSIZ ÁLEM

Iri memleketterding ydyrau tarihy әrqashan biregey, biraq әrbir jaghdayda sheshushi sәt baqylau men senimning joghaluy bolyp tabylady. Resey túraqsyzdyq kezenine endi. Endigi mәsele ydyraudyng qanshalyqty tez jәne qay modelige sәikes bastaluynda. Búl arada el túnghiyqqa qaray bet aldy. Al imperiyalar mәngi ómir sýrmeydi, әsirese olar óz halqyna jәne bir mezgilde әlemge qarsy soghysyp jatqanda.

Kerimsal Júbatqanov,

tarih ghylymdarynyng kandidaty, S. Seyfullin atyndaghy Qazaq agrotehnikalyq zertteu uniyversiytetining dosenti

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