Izraili men Iran shektespeydi.

Aralarynda Irak pen Iordaniya bar.

Solay bola túra nege bir birine sonday ósh?

Shyn mәninde, Iran úzaq jyldar boyy Izrailiding strategiyalyq odaqtasy bolghan.

Ol Izrailidi de-fakto moyyndaghan alghashqy músylman elderining biri edi. Izraili iran múnayynyng iri satyp alushylarynyng biri boldy. Izraili Irangha әskeriy-jabdyqtar, auyl sharuashylyq tehnologiyalar men arnayy qyzmetterdi dayarlau salasynda qoldau kórsetti. «Eli-Ali» әue kompaniyasynyng әue reysteri Tegerangha qatynap túrdy.

Ol kezde Iran men Izrailiding ortaq jauy — arab últshyldyghy bolghan. Ol tek Izrailige ghana emes, sonday-aq monarhiyalyq Irangha da qauip tóndirip, revolusiyany eksporttaudy maqsat etti. Eki el de — Iran (arab emes, parsylyq memleket) jәne Izraili (arab emes, evrey eli) — ortaq dúshpangha qarsy tabighy aliyans qúrady. Búl odaq eki jaqqa da tiyimdi boldy.

Biraq 1979 jylghy Islam revolusiyasy bәrin ózgertip jiberdi. Jana rejim pragmatizmge emes, revolusiyalyq islam iydeologiyasyna negizdeldi. Ayatolla Ruholla Homeyny AQSh-ty «Ýlken Shaytan», Izrailidi — «Kishi Shaytan» dep atady.

Ayatolla Homeyny Irandy shiitterding de, sýnnitterding de, yaghny barsha músylmandardyng kóshbasshysy etuge tyrysty. Búl ýshin eng tiyimdi jol — IYerusalimdi (әl-Qúdys) islam әlemindegi Mekke men Medinadan keyingi eng qasiyetti oryn retinde azat etu dep týsindi. Izrailige qarsy kýres Irangha óz-ózine «músylmandardyng qorghaushysy» retinde belgili bir dengeyde artyqshylyq berdi. Syrtqy jau ishki problemalardy úmyttyra otyryp, avtoritarlyq rejimdi «qasiyetti soghys» arqyly aqtamaq boldy.

Revolusiyadan keyin Iran Izrailimen diplomatiyalyq baylanysty toqtatty.

Tegeranda Izraili elshiligin jauyp, onyng ghimaratyn Yasir Arafattyng Palestina azat etu úiymyna berdi.

Jyl sayynghy antiizraildik sheru úiymdastyratyn «Ál-Qúdys kýnin» jariyalady.

Izraili Irannan tehnologiyalyq jaghynan әldeqayda ozyq ekenin týsine otyryp, «Ot saqinasy» (Ring of Fire) strategiyasyn jasady. Ony Iran islam revolusiyasy korpusynyng «Qúdys» bólimining búrynghy komandiyri, general Qasym Sýleymaniyding ózi qúrastyrdy. Onyng maqsaty – tikeley soghyspay, júmsaq kýshter  arqyly әreket etu.

«Ot saqinasynyn» bes negizgi sektory:

Soltýstik maydan — Livandaghy Hizballa

– Búl strategiyalyq manyzdy qúrylym, Irannyng negizi serigi.

– Qorynda 150 000–200 000-gha deyin ballistikalyq qarular - zymyran men snaryad bar delinedi.

Onyng ýstine Siriyadaghy shayqastarda jinaghan tәjiriybesi bar.

Ontýstik maydan — HAMAS pen Palestinalyq Islamdyq Djihad (Gaza)

– Izrailiding ontýstik shekarasy boyyna ýnemi qysym kórsetedi.

– Arsenaly Hizballagha qaraghanda kishi bolsa da, myndaghan zymyrandardan túrady. 2023 jylghy 7 qazandaghy shabuyl men ýlken josparlanghan jerýsti operasiyalaryn kórsetti. Djihad toby tipti HAMAS-tan da jaqyn.

Shyghys maydan — Siriya men Iraktaghy shiit separatistik toptar Irannyng qaruyn Livangha jәne Siriyagha jetkizetin «qúrlyqtaghy kópir».

– Kataib Hizballa, Harakat an-Nudjaba siyaqty úiymdar Izrailige drondar men raketalar baghyttay alady, búl Izrailiding әue qorghanysyn bóluge mәjbýr etedi.

Qirattardyng ontýstigi — Yemendegi Husitter (Ansar Allah qozghalysy)

– Izrailiding aldynan 2 000 km qashyqtyqta, biraq Irannan qoldau alyp, ballistikalyq zymyrandar men shabuyldaushy drondargha qol jetkizgen.

– Eylat qalasyna qarsy shabuyldardan jәne Qyzyl tenizdegi kemeler qauiptenip otyr.

Ishki maydan (potensialdy): Izrailiding ishki mazasyzdyghy

– Izrailidegi arabtar men Soltýstik Ýrdis jaghalaudaghy jaghdaydy qozdyru әreketi.

Basty maqsat — Izraili memleketining joyyluy. Búl infraqúrylymdy qoldau ýshin Iran jyl sayyn milliardtaghan dollar júmsaydy. Al Izrailide osy «saqinalardy» birtindep joi sharalary jýrgizilude.

Ómir Shynybekúly.

Abai.kz