2025 jyl Qazaqstan ýshin ekonomikalyq damuda sapalyq betbúrys kezeni boldy. Nominaldy jalpy ishki ónim shamamen 300 mlrd AQSh dollaryna jetti, al naqty ekonomikalyq ósim 6,5% dengeyinde qalyptasty.

Búl kórsetkish daghdarysqa deyingi jyldardan da, 2021–2023 jyldardaghy qalpyna keltiru ósiminen de joghary bolyp, 2018–2025 jyldar aralyghyndaghy eng kýshti ósim jyly retinde erekshelendi. Búl ýrdister Qazaqstan Respublikasynyng Preziydenti Qasym-Jomart Kemelúly Toqaevtyng «Turkistan» gazetine bergen súhbatynda atap ótilgen el ekonomikasyn janghyrtu jәne sapalyq ósimge kóshu baghytymen tolyq ýndesedi.

Erekshe jaghday ekonomikalyq ósim negizinen múnaylyq emes sektorlardyng jedeldeuining esebinen qamtamasyz etildi. Qúrylys sektory shamamen 11–13% ósim kórsetip, túrghyn ýy qúrylysynyng keneni, infraqúrylymdyq jobalardyng iske asyryluy jәne memlekettik investisiyalardyng artuymen sipattaldy. Sauda salasy 8–9% dengeyinde ósti, oghan ishki tútynudyng keneni, halyq tabysynyng ósui jәne sifrlyq sauda arnalarynyng damuy yqpal etti. Ónerkәsip óndirisi jalpy alghanda 5–6% artty, ósimning negizgi ýlesi óndeu ónerkәsibine tiyesili boldy. Óndeu ónerkәsibi 6–7% ósim kórsetip, mashina jasau, metall óndeu, qúrylys materialdary men azyq-týlik óndirisi negizgi drayverlerge ainaldy.

Búl dinamika ekonomikanyng qúrylymdyq әrtaraptanu ýrdisining kýsheygenin, ishki óndiris pen qyzmet kórsetu salalarynyng rólining artqanyn jәne syrtqy shiykizat koniunkturasyna tәueldilikting birtindep tómendey bastaghanyn kórsetedi. Sonymen qatar geologiyalyq barlau men industriyalyq jobalardyng jandanuy ekonomikanyng ekinshi investisiyalyq sikline negiz qalady.

Kezendik túrghydan alghanda, 2018–2019 jyldary Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng nominaldy kólemi shamamen 180–185 mlrd AQSh dollary dengeyinde qalyptasty. 2018 jyly JIÓ shamamen 179 mlrd AQSh dollaryn, 2019 jyly 181–182 mlrd AQSh dollaryn qúrady, naqty ekonomikalyq ósim jylyna orta eseppen 4–4,5% dengeyinde boldy. Búl kezende ósim negizinen shiykizat eksporty men ishki tútynugha sýiendi, al investisiyalyq jәne ónimdilik faktorlarynyng ýlesi shekteuli boldy.

Osy túrghydan alghanda, 2025 jylghy ósim bir jaghynan ekonomikanyng beyimdelu әleuetin kórsetse, ekinshi jaghynan qoldanystaghy modeliding shegine jaqyndaghanyn anghartty: ósimning negizgi kózderi ishki súranys, budjettik shyghystar jәne infraqúrylymdyq investisiyalar bolyp qala berdi. Búl aldaghy kezende jeke investisiyalardy, ónimdilikti jәne eksporttyq әleuetti kýsheytuge baghyttalghan jana ósu kózderin qalyptastyrudyng ózektiligin arttyrady.

Atalghan kezende JIÓ-ning nominaldy ósui negizinen baghalardyng ósui, ishki súranystyng keneni jәne budjettik shyghystardyng artuy esebinen qamtamasyz etildi. Alayda eksport pen jeke investisiyalar tolyqqandy ósim drayverlerine ainalmay, ekonomikalyq ósim importtyng úlghangymen jәne inflyasiyalyq qysymnyng kýshengimen qatar jýrdi.

2018–2025: Qazaqstan ekonomikasynyng ósu traektoriyasy (mlrd AQSh doll., %)

Suret: Avtordyng múraghatynan alyndy.

Suret: Avtordyng múraghatynan alyndy.

Ghaly Dinmúhammed Ázimbayúly,

ekonomika ghylymdarynyng kandidaty, professor, Qoldanbaly etnosayasy zertteuler institutynyng ortalyq diyrektory

Abai.kz