Qazaqstandyqtar Qúryltay saylauynan jaqsylyq kýtedi – qoghamdyq pikir zertteui
Euraziyalyq integrasiya instituty BAQ ókilderine arnalghan onlayn-brifing barysynda qazaqstandyqtardyng elektoraldyq minez-qúlqynyng týrli aspektilerin zertteu ayasynda 2026 jylghy 16-26 shilde aralyghynda jýrgizilgen әleumettanulyq zertteu nәtiyjelerin jariyalaudy jalghastyrdy.
Búghan deyin habarlanghanday, azamattar arasynda jýrgizilgen jappay saualnamagha (face-to-face) Qazaqstannyng 17 oblysynan jәne Astana, Almaty, Shymkent qalalarynan 4 000 respondent qatysty.
Saualnama qoghamda saylau nauqandary, sayasy partiyalardyng róli men funksiyasy turaly naqty jәne bayypty týsinik qalyptasyp otyrghanyn, sonday-aq jýrgizilip jatqan sayasy reformalardyng jaghymdy әseri turaly pikir basym ekenin kórsetti.
Qúryltay deputattarynyng saylauy qarsanynda zertteu ayasynda anyqtalghan birqatar kórsetkishter arnayy nazar audarugha túrarlyq.
Birinshi. Saylau belsendiligine oray jýrgizilgen jalpy ólshem boyynsha, saualnamagha qatysqan azamattardyng 78,2%-y saylaular men referendumdarda dauys beruge qatysatynyn kórsetti.
Onyng ishinde atap óterligi, әrbir nauqan ótken sayyn dauys beruge qatysatyn azamattardyng sany artyp otyrghan. Respondentterding jauaptaryna sәikes, 2023 jylghy parlamenttik saylaugha azamattardyng 53,4%-y, 2024 jylghy referendumgha 63,4%-y, 2026 jylghy referendumgha 75,3%-y qatysqan. Saualnama nәtiyjeleri QR Ortalyq saylau komissiyasynyng resmy derekterimen barynsha sәikes keletinin atap ketken jón.
Ekinshi. QR jana Konstitusiyasyn qabyldau boyynsha ótken referendumgha qatysqan azamattar ózderin dauys beruge yntalandyrghan mynanday sebepterdi atap ótti:
Azamattardyng 71%-y dauys berudi ózderining azamattyq boryshy dep sanaydy.
Respondentterding 69,6%-y jýrgizilip jatqan sayasy reformalardy manyzdy dep sanaydy.
Al 31,4%-y dauys berudi ózining ajyramas demokratiyalyq qúqyghy dep esepteydi.
Saualnamagha qatysqandardyng 18%-y dauys beruge qúqyly jasqa jetuine baylanysty qatysqan.(respondentter birneshe jauap núsqasyn tandau mýmkindigine ie bolghandyqtan, jauaptardyng jiyntyq kórsetkishi 100%-dan asady)
Saylau belsendiligining osy faktorlary 23 tamyzdaghy referendumda sheshushi rólge ie boluy mýmkin.
Ýshinshi. Saualnamagha qatysqan qazaqstandyqtar jýrgizilip jatqan saylau prosesteri turaly habar alatyn TOP-7 negizgi aqparat kózi anyqtaldy: teledidar – 51,6%, Instagram – 44,5%, janalyq taratushy internet-portaldar – 32,5%, otbasy mýsheleri jәne tuystary arqyly – 27,4%, TikTok – 23,8%, júmys ornynda, úiymda – 22,5%, dostary arqyly – 21,7%.
(respondentter birneshe jauap núsqasyn tandau mýmkindigine ie bolghandyqtan, jauaptardyng jiyntyq kórsetkishi 100%-dan asady)
Búl nәtiyjeler sayasy kontentti jalpy media tútynuda telearnalardyng әli de ózekti ekenin jәne әleumettik jelilerding ishinde Instagram jәne TikTok jelilerining keninen tanymal ekenin kórsetedi. Azamattar saylau barysy turaly túraqty týrde habar alyp otyrady jәne ony kýndelikti óz ortasynda talqylaydy.
Tórtinshi. Qazaqstandyqtardyng basym kópshiligining pikirinshe jana Konstitusiyany qabyldau siyaqty palataly Qúryltaydyng qúryluy da ong ózgeristermen baylanysty. Saualnama nәtiyjeleri azamattardyng Qúryltay saylauynan jaqsylyq kýtetinin kórsetedi.
Respondentterding 68%-y Qúryltay saylauynan keyin ómirinde jaqsy ózgerister bolatynyna ýmitti.
Qoghamdyq pikirdi naqtylau mynany kórsetti.
Saualnamagha qatysqandardyng 48,8%-y saylaudyng әdil ótetinine senimdi.
Respondentterding 43,3%-y Qúryltaygha saylanatyn deputattar azamattardyng mýddesin qorghaydy dep kýtedi.
Respondentterding 35,9%-y jana deputattardyng keluimen halyqtyng әleumettik-ekonomikalyq jaghdayy jaqsarady dep sanaydy.
23,8%-y – jana deputattar sayasy mәdeniyet dengeyining jogharylauyna yqpal etedi dep senedi.
Azamattardyng 22,3%-y deputattardyng halyqqa jaqyn boluyn jәne óz saylaushylarymen ashyq sóilesuin qalaydy.
(respondentter birneshe jauap núsqasyn tandau mýmkindigine ie bolghandyqtan, jauaptardyng jiyntyq kórsetkishi 100%-dan asady).
Besinshi. «Qazaqstandaghy sayasy partiya tiyimdi qyzmet etui ýshin eng aldymen ne isteui kerek?» degen súraqqa respondentterding jauaptaryn tizbelesek.
Azamattardyng partiyalargha qoyylatyn TOP-3 talaptary:
44%-y – partiya elding ekonomikalyq ósui men órkendeuine atsalysuy kerek ekenin atap ótti,
32,4%-y – elding aldaghy damuy jayly naqty týsindire aluy kerek dep esepteydi,
33,2%-y – óz júmysynda әleumettik baquattylyq pen tendikti qamtamasyz etuge basa nazar audaruy tiyis deydi.
Sonday-aq, respondentter partiya kóshbasshylary myqty, tartymdy túlgha boluy (29,9%), zandarmen sauatty júmys istey bilui jәne halyqqa tikeley payda әkeletin zang jobalaryn ghana nasihattauy (29,8%), demokratiyagha adal boluy (20,1%), saylaushylarmen túraqty baylanysta boluy, onyng ishinde búqaralyq aqparat qúraldary men әleumettik jelileri arqyly baylanys ústaugha (20%) tiyis ekenin atap ótti.
(respondentter birneshe jauap núsqasyn tandau mýmkindigine ie bolghandyqtan, jauaptardyng jiyntyq kórsetkishi 100%-dan asady)
Osylaysha, qazaqstandyqtardyng qoghamdyq-sayasy jәne saylau prosesterine atsalysu belsendiligi artyp keledi dep aitugha bolady. Jalpy, qoghamnyng sayasy oqighalargha qúlaghy týrik.
Osy әleumettanulyq zertteuding nәtiyjeleri qazir saylau jarysyna qatysyp jatqan sayasy partiyalargha paydaly boluy mýmkin. Búl ýgit-nasihat әdisterin, arnalaryn jәne mazmúnyn, sonday-aq ýgit-nasihat kezinde asa manyzdy jalpy saylaudy belgileu strategiyasyn týzetuge mýmkindik beredi.
Irikteme 18 jastan asqan halyqtyng әleumettik-demografiyalyq qúramynyng tiyisti proporsiyalaryna jaqyn (Qazaqstan Respublikasy Strategiyalyq josparlau jәne reformalar agenttigi Últtyq statistika burosynyng 2026 jylghy sәuirdegi derekterine sәikes) bólingen parametrler (oblys, túrghylyqty jeri (qala/auyl), jynysy, jasy, etnikalyq tegi) boyynsha reprezentativti ýlgide jasalghan. 95% senimdilik yqtimaldyghy bar iriktemening statistikalyq qateligi ±1,54%-dan aspaydy.
Euraziyalyq integrasiya instituty Ortalyq saylau komissiyasynyng 2026 jylghy 3 shildedegi №OSK-11-07/ZT-S-30 jazbasha habarlamasynan alynghan derekterdi jariyalap otyr.
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