Qytay bizding 1500 shaqyrymdyq shekaramyz jymdasqan qúdayy kórshimiz. Qazirgi mәmileler boyynsha úzaq bolashaqtaghy strategiyalyq yntymaqtastyqtaghy seriktesimiz. Reseyden qala berdi iri sauda serigimiz. Satylymy júrtymyzdy asyrap otyrghan birsypyra shiykizatymyz ben energetikalyq baylyghymyzdy ótkizu naryghy. Ol sonday-aq әlemdegi kólemi ekinshi iri ekonomika, 1,4 mlrd halqy bar alyp el.

Juyq jyldardan beri әlemdik biyleushilikke úmtylyp, qazirgi halyqaralyq jýiening erejeleri men qaghidattaryn qayta qaraudy dәripteushi derjava. Ol onysymen de sesti әm ýreyli. «Qytay ýreyi», әsirese songhy jyldary Qazaqstan júrtynyng degbirin qashyruda.

«Qytay bizdi ekonomikalyq ekspansiyamen jaulap almaqshy», «jerimizdi jalgha alu arqyly iyelenip ketpekshi», «júmys kýshin kirgizu jolymen migrasiyalyq shapqynshylyq jasauda», «júmsaq kýshteri arqyly yqpalyn jýrgizip jatyr», deytin daqpyrttar jeldey esude. Búl arada júrttyng taza otanshyldyq sezimi men elding keleshegine jauapkershilik niyetimen qatar, osy taza tilekterdi óz yghyna paydalanyp qaludy oilap, «qolamtany ýrlep» otyrghan ekinshi kórshimizding de pighyly menmúndalaydy. Eng bastysy, Qytaydyng janaghyday niyetining joq emestigin ashyq ataumen qatar, onyng atalghan múrattaryna jetuine kedergi keltiretin «bir basyna jeterlik» bas aurulary baryn qaperge alghanymyz da jón sekildi. Jetistigin jarnamalaudan aldyna qara salmaytyn elding әmbege kýngirt, biraq qatardan qalyp qonyna qarpymdy әseri bar әlsiz tústaryn talqylau maqsatymen «Abai.kz» aqparattyq portalynda (10.03.2021) Qytaydaghy kedeyshilik jayly sóz qozghaghanymyz bar. Endigide osy Qytay kiltipandary taqyrybyna birneshe maqala arnamaqpyz.

Resmy mәlimetting dereginshe, býginderi Qytayda (Gongrong pen Makaoyy sanamaghanda) 1,40005 mlrd halyq túrady (2019 jyly. 2020 jylghy jan sanyn jappay anyqtau qorytyndysy 2021 jyldyng sәuirinde jariyalanuy kerek). Osynday sanmen Qytay eli qazir jan sany daghdarysymen bet kelip otyr. Onyng mәni - jan sanynyng jyl sanap әm qauyrt azangy, enbek kýshi jәne tuyt jasyndaghy әielder sanynyng kemui, tuyttyng tómendeui men balanyng siyreui, ajyrasudyng kóbengi jәne songhy apat - qarttar sanynyng kýrt úlghangy.

Qytayda 20 ghasyrdyng 50-jyldary Maonyng «adam mol bolsa, kýsh kóbeyedi» iydeyasymen adam ósimi qarqyndy bolghany bar. Mysaly QHR qúrylghannyng kelesi 1950 jyly 14,19 mln bala tuylsa (tәbighy ósim 10,29 mln), 1954 jyly 22,32 mln (14,5 mln) nәreste ómirge keldi. 60-jyldarghy tәbighy ósimning ekinshi tolqynynda jiyntyq tuu mólsheri 25 mln-nan (eng az 1967j. 25,43 mln, 1963j. 29,34 mln) týsip kórgen joq. Sol jyldardaghy ghylymy elitanyng el auqatynyng artuy men jan sanynyng kóbengi arasyndaghy keregharlyqty jong sharasy esebindegi «az tuu, kesheuildep tuugha» shaqyruy, aqyrynda tuytty josparlau sayasatyn engizuge alyp kelgen-di (1971j.). 50-60-jyldardaghy bala tuu tolqyny tuyndatqan tәbighy ósimning ýshinshi tolqyny 80-90 jyldardaghy tuyt dengeyine serpin bergenimen (eng kóp 1987j. 25,08 mln sәbiy), Qytaydaghy jan sany osydan keyin-aq, yrghaqty qalyppen azaya berdi. 1980j. zandyq jauapkershilik jýktegen qatang tәrtiptegi tuytty josparlau sayasaty engizilisimen onyng shartty nәtiyjesi esebinde 2000 jyldardan bastap jan sanynyng azangy qatty ekpin aldy (tәbighy ósim：2000j. 9,57 mln, 2010j. 6,41 mln, 2019j. 4,67 mln). 2013 jylghy ata-ananyng bireuining onyng ózining de kezindegi jalghyz bala boluyna baylanysty ekinshi bala aluyna rúqsat beretin jenildik te (2012j. 6,69 mln, 2013j. 6,68 mln), 2016 jylghy jappay eki bala alugha rúqsat bergen sheshim de búl ýderiske bәlendey әser ete alghan joq (2016j. 8,09 mln, 2017j. 7,37 mln). Sonymen qytaylyqtardyng әr bes jyldaghy artqan sany bylay qalyptandy (mln adam).

1949j. 8,53 (artqan jan sany),   (barlyq jan sany 541,67)

1954j. 14,66,                  1959 j. 6,77,     (672,07)

1964j.19,27,                  1969 j. 20,76,     (806,71)

1974j.15,74,                  1979 j. 11,25,     (975,42)

1984j.13,51,                  1989 j. 16,77,     ( 1,12704 mlrd)

1994j.13,33,                  1999 j. 10,25,     ( 1,25786 mlrd)

2004j.7,61,                   2009 j. 6,48,     ( 1,33450 mlrd)

2014j. 7,1.                  2019 j. 4,67.      ( 1,40005 mlrd).

Úsynylghan mәlimetten Qytaydaghy halyq sanynyng aldynghy 40 jylda 0,58537 mlrd, songhy 30 jylda 0,27301 mlrd óskenin (aldynghynyng 47%-i), sonymen birge jyl sayynghy ósu ekpininin,  әsirese osy ghasyrgha kirgeli ýdemeli tómendey bergenin kóremiz. Búl qytaylyqtardy, olardyng sayasi-intelliygent elitasyn qatty alandatyp otyr. Sebebi, jan sany ósimining tuabitti zandylyqtaryn qayyryp qoyyp, memlekettik mýddeni ghana basshylyqqa alghan tuytty josparlau sayasaty eldegi tuyt mólsherining ólsheusiz tómendeuine soqtyryp otyr. Mysaly, 1950-2019 jj. Jer sharyndaghy ortasha jiyntyq tuyt mólsheri (tuyt jasyndaghy әielderding ómirge әkeletin ortasha bala sany) 4,97-den  2,27-ke azaysa, Qytaydyng kórsetkishi 6-dan 1,18-ge týsip ketken!

Atam qazaqtyng «eki bala bala emes, ýsh bala bir bala» degenindey, demografiyalyq teoriyada da bir memlekettegi tuyt mólsheri 2,1 balany ústap túrghanynda ghana sol elding jan sany qalybyn saqtaydy dep sanalady. Tuyt mólsheri 1,5-ten týsip ketkennen keyin-aq, әr buyn sayyn sol el halqy 1/3-ge azayyp otyratyn bolady. Qytaydaghy jan sanynyng azang sebepterine keler bolsaq, eng әueli jalpy jan sanynyng azangyna ilese tuyt jasyndaghy әielder sanynyng azayyp kele jatqanyn atau lәzim. 2010 j. jan sanyn jappay anyqtaudyng sanaq nәtiyjeleri 80, 90, 2000 jyldyqtardyng sanynyng jeke-jeke 219, 188, 147 mln adam bolghandyghyn kórsetedi. Demek, ómirge kelgenderding absolutty sanynyng azangyna ilese tuyt jasyndaghy analardyng sany da sәikesti týrde azaydy degen sóz.

Jaqynghy jyldary tuyt jasyndaghy (15-49 jas) әielderding sany jylyna 5 mln-gha kemip jatyr. Nәtiyjesinde, ýilenetin júptar sany men ýilenu mólsheri de qúldilap barady. Mysaly, 2013-2020jj. ýilengen júptar sany 13,47 mln-nan 8,13 mln-gha azayghan. 2018 jylgha jetkende bas qúrau jasyndaghy qytaylyqtardyng (240 mln, Angliya, Fransiya, Germaniya halyqtarynyng qosyndysyna para-par eken). 77 mln-y mýldem salt túryp jatqan kórinedi. Onsyz da sany azayyp jatqan jastardyng keshigip ýilenui de mәselege ainalyp otyr. Ghasyr basynan beri jastardyng ýilenu jasy 20-24 jastan 25-29 jasqa shegingen. 2005-2019jj. 20-24 jastaghylardyng ýilenu salystyrmasy 47%-dan 19,7%-gha tómendese, esesine 30-34 (9,9%-dan 17,7%-gha), 35-39 (4,9%-dan 8,1%-gha), 40 jәne onan ilgergi jastaghylardyng (3,9%-dan 19,9%-gha) ýilenu salystyrmasy aitarlyqtay ósken.

Keshigip ýilenuding kesirin bylay qoyghanda, ýilengen song kesheuildep bala tuu da ýrdiske ainaluda. 1990-2015jj. qytaylyq kelinshekterding alghashqy bala kóteru jasy 24,1-den 26,3-ke, ortasha bala kóteru jasy 24,8-den 28-ge ósken de, bala kóteru kórsetkishi kerisinshe 66,7%-gha qúlaghan. 2019 jylghy zertteulerding bildiruinshe ýilenuden mýlde baz keshken qyzdar sany 6 mln-gha jetip jyghylghan kórinedi. Al ajyrasu mólsheri songhy 17 jyl boyy údayy artyp keledi (2002j. 0,9%, 2019j. 3,4%, 2019j. ajyrasqandar sany ýilengenderding jartysyna juyqtapty).

Múnymen qoymay, eldegi bala tuu yqylasynyng bәsendeui beleng alyp barady. Búl arada zamannyng ózgerisine say tuyndaghan týsinikting ózgerui, óz basynyng qamyn kýitteushilikke berilu, bala tuudy әure sanau saryny siyaqty zamanauy «úshyqtardan» syrt materialdyq jetispeushilik basty qolbaylau bolyp otyr.

1998 jylghy túrghyn ýy reformasynan bastap Qytaydaghy elishilik investisiyanyng eng tәuekeldisi de, tabystysy da ýy saudasy bolghany belgili. 1998-2018jj. jana salynghan ýilerding sharshy metrining baghasynyng ortasha 1854 yuannan 8544 yuangha sharyqtaghany bar. 2004-2018jj. qytaylyqtardyng ýy alu ýshin alghan nesie somasy 1,6 trln yuannan 25,8 trln yuangha jetip, barlyq tútynushylyq nesiyening 54%-yn ústapty. Nesiye-tabys salystyrmasy (túrghyndardyng ýy nesiyesi men jaratatyn tabysynyng salystyrmasy) 16,2%-dan 47,6%-gha barypty. 2019 jyly 10 iri qaladaghy ýy baghasyna jýrgizilden zertteuler Shynjan qalasynan ýy alu ýshin ishpey-jemey 35,2 jyl, Shanhay men Beyjiynde 25,1 jәne 23,9 jyl qarjy jinau shart ekendigin kórsetken. Búl baspana qiyndyghynyng ýilengisi keletin jastardyng armanyna qúm qúiyp otyrghan basty kedergi ekendigin aighaqtaydy.

Al auyldaghy qytaylyqtardyng qoldyng qysqalyghynan ýilenbey ótui degen tansyq әngimege jatpaydy. Jurnalisterding ishinara provinsiyalarda jýrgizgen zertteuleri auyldaghy azamattardyng bir shýikebasqa qoly jetu ýshin 1 mln-gha deyin qarajat tabulary kerektigin anyqtapty. Qytay auyldaryndaghy ortasha jyldyq tabystyng 8069 yuan bolatynyn (2020j.) eskersek, 1 mln qarjy jinau ýshin qansha uaqyt saryp bolaryn baghamday beruge bolar deymiz. Saldarynan ýilene almay jýrgen azamattar sany 2015 jyly 20 mln-dy qúrapty. Mamandar olardyng sany 2022 jyly 40 mln-gha jetedi dep otyr.

Jastardyng tuu yqylasyn tejeytin taghy bir faktor - bala tәrbiyesining joydaqsyz qymbatshylyghy. Bylaysha shamalaghanda, ortanqol qytay otbasynda bir balagha jaratylatyn jyldyq ortasha shyghyn 30 myng yuan mólsherinde bolsa, onyng tuylghannan 18 jasqa deyingi baghym-tәrbiyesine 500 myng yuan júmsalady eken. Beyjiynning ózindegi jalaqynyng orta sanynyng 6096 yuan ekenin eskersek, bala tәrbiyesining qanshalyq qymbat ekendigin baghamdau qyiyndyq tudyrmasa kerek. Qarajat shyghynyn bylay qoyghanda, Qytaydaghy bala-baqsha tapshylyghynyng ata-ana jýikesine batpandap salmaq salatynyn aitu lәzim. Qytaydyng densaulyq saqtau jәne tuytty josparlau komiytetining dereginshe 2015 jyly 0-3 jas aralyghyndaghy balalardyng bala-baqshagha qabyldanuy 4%-aq eken. Mine paradoks!

Emdeluding qymbattyghy, qarttar kýtimining jýktemesi de jastardyng bala sýng yntasyn tizgindep, balany «taba alghanmen, bagha almaytyn» kýige týsirip otyr. Baspana, oqu, emdeluding Qytay halqynyng keudesin basyp, tynys aldyrmay túrghan «ýsh alyp tau» ekendigi jayyndaghy tәmsil osydan tarasa kerek. Qytayda әielderding júmysqa qatysu belsendiligi әlemde birinshi orynda túrady, olardyng júmystanu mólsheri 70%. Búl da qytay әielderining bala tuudy keshiktiruine nemese bala tumauyna iytermeleude.

Jogharyda bayandalghan jayttardyng barlyghy da Qytaydaghy bala tuu kórsetkishining kýrt tómendeuine soqtyryp otyr. Atalmysh kórsetkish ekinshi bala tuugha rúqsat berilgen 2016 j. 17,86 mln-dyq rekordtyq mejeni kórsetti de, onan keyingi jyldary taudan tas qúlaghanday qúldyrap keledi. (2017j. 17,25; 2018j. 15,23; 2020j. 12,48 mln sәbiy). 2019j. 14,65 mln sәby dýniyege kelgenimen, 9,98 mln kisi ómirden ótipti, tәbighy ósim 4,67 mln adam. Mamandardyng zertteuleri aldaghy 5 jyl kóleminde jan sany ósimining teris kórsetkish kórsetetinine, qazirgi jiyntyq tuu mólsheri (1,18 sәbi) jaghdayynda әr buyn sayyn halyqtyng jartysynyng azayyp otyraryna menzep otyr. Qazirding ózinde ishinara ónirlerde túrghyndar sanynyng azangy kórinis bere bastaghan. Mysaly, 2019j. Qytaydyng teristik-shyghysyndaghy ýsh pravinsiyanyng jan sanynyng ósimi  -01,01%, -08,0%, -08,5% bolghan. Keybir ónirlerde balalardyng tuu kórsetkishi 2018 jylmen salystyrghanda 32%-gha deyin týsip ketken.

Jan sanynyng ýdemeli azangy men bala tuudyng siyreui qoghamnyng qarttanuy men úrpaqsyzdanugha alyp keledi. 2019j. 65 jastan asqan qarttardyng sany 176 mln-dy qúrap, halyq sanynyng 12,6%-yna jetipti, búl naghyz qarttanghan qoghamnyng belgisi. Búl kórsetkish 2022j. 14%, 2032j. 20%-ten asady dep mejelenude. Sonymen birge balalar sany da jyl ótken sayyn qushiyp keledi. Osy ghasyrdyng 20 jylynda tuylghan jetkinshekter ótken ghasyrdyng sonyndaghy 20 jylda tuylghandardan 103 mln-gha kem. Sәikesinshe 0-14 jastardaghy jetkinshekterding jalpy halyq sanynan ústaghan ýlesi de 1964j. 40,4%-dan 2019j. 16,78%-gha qúldyraghan.

Endi osy ýrdisterding zardaptaryna toqtalsaq. Qazirgi Qytaydyng jan basyna shaqqandaghy JIÓ 10 myng dollar shamasynda. AQSh, Japoniya elderining qarttar ýlesi 12,6%-gha jetken kezindegi jan basylyq JIÓ 24 myng jәne 30 myng dollar bolghan-dy. Osynyng ózi-aq, Qytay qoghamynyng «bayymay jatyp qartaygha» bet alghanyn, kýtimge baylanysty opasan qiynshylyqty kýtip otyrghanyn andatady.

Qazirding ózinde tuyt mólsheri tómen, qarttanuy joghary nemese damymay qalghan 7 provinsiyanyng zeynetaqy jinaghy jetpegendikten olardyng zeynetaqysy memlekettik qazynadan tólenude. 2019j. Qytaydaghy әkimshilik subektining jartysy ózin zeynetaqymen jete qamty almapty. 2018 jyly memlekettik dotasiya bolmasa zeynetaqy jinaghynan 450,4 mlrd yuan sol jylghy zeynetaqyny tóleuge jetpegendey eken. Osynyng ózi-aq, biraz syrdy anghartsa kerek.

Qytaydyng jarty ghasyrgha juyq esepsiz әm arzan júmys kýshining arqasynda «әlemning fabrikasyna» ainalghany belgili. Kólemi boyynsha әlemdik ekinshi ekonomikagha, tauar eksporty alybyna ainaluy da osy qisapsyz jan sanynyng arqasy-tyn. Taghy da osy baylyqtyng arqasynda eng auqymdy naryq retinde әlemning tauaryn, kapitaly men tehnologiyasyn ózine bauraghan. Ekonomikalyq qana emes, onyng әlemdik qauymdastyqtaghy bedeli men geosayasy yqpaly da osy jan sanyna iyek sýiegen eldik quatyna baylanysty edi.  Qytaygha halqy osy betimen azaya berse, endi osy basymdyqtarynan aiyrylyp qalu qateri tónip túr. Jan sany azayghannan keyin investisiya men depozittin, óndiris pen tútynudyng da azayatyny, búl ekonomikanyng ósimining tómendeuine iytermeleytini belgili. Qytay ekonomikasy ósimining 2010j. 10,6%-dan 2018j.  6,1%-gha qúlauynyng ózi osynyng jandy aighaghy.

QHR gumanitarlyq ghylymdar akademiyasy kelesi on jylda tek jan sanynyng qarttanuy sebebinen ekonomikalyq ósimning jylyna 0,8-1 punktqa kemip otyratynyn boljaghan. Soviyd-19 indeti men әlemdik súranystyng sarandauynyng kesirinen ekonomikanyng quatyn ishki ainalymgha búryp jatqan el ýshin múnyng manyzy tipten qúndy. Qytaylyq mamandardyng esepteuinshe jiyntyq tuu mólsheri qazirgi qalpymen (1,18 sәbi) qala berse, 2050 jylgha qaray jan sany 1,21mlrd-qa azayyp, qarttar ýlesi 31.2%-gha jetpekshi. Múnan da manyzdysy - memleketting baylyghyn jaratushy, enbek jasyndaghylardyng sanynyng azangy bolghaly túr. Kezinde anyz bolghan «Japoniyanyng ekonomikalyq ghajaby» enbek jasyndaghylar ýlesining 60%-dan týse qoymaghan jyldary jasalghanymen shendestirer bolsaq, Qytayda 2012 jyldan beri jylyna 3 mln adamnan kemy bastaghan enbek jasynghylardyng (15-59 jastaghylar) sany 2025j. qaray 35 mln adamgha qysqaratyn nyshany bar.

Qytay mamandary ghasyrdyng songhy jartysyna qaray elderining halyq sanynyng jalpy kóleminen de, enbek kýshting azdyghy jәne qarttardyng kóptigimen de, basty bәsekeles - AQSh-tyng aldynda útylghaly túrghanyn aityp, dabyl qaghuda. Mysaly, 2019j. Qytay men Amerika halqy jasynyng orta sany 37,9 jәne 38,3 jas bolsa, qazirgi ósim ýderisimen 2050j. jeke-jeke 50,8 jәne 42,7 jasty qúraydy eken. Al jasóspirimder sanynyng qysqaruy men ýlesining kemui elde әleumettik progress pen innovasiyanyng tejelip, tapqyrlyq pen qoghamnyng ómirshendigining sarqyluyna iytermeleui kәdik. Óitkeni jastar qashanda janashyldyq pen jasampazdyqtyng sarqylmas búlaghy.

Japoniya tәjiriybesi eldegi jas óskinning azangynyng innovasiya men janashyldyqtyng sualyp, elding jartylay ótkizgish, telekommunikasiya, jana enegetika syndy salalardaghy әlemdik basymdyghyn joghaltyp aluynyng basty sebebi bolghandyghyn kórsetip berdi. Demek osy faktordyng zardaby tipti ótkir de, taghdyrsheshti bolatyn synayly. Qytay mamandary múnyng әserin memleketting jalghasty damuy men Qytay órkeniyetining týtinining ary qaray tútauymen baylanystyra qarastyryp, biylikke dәtterin jetkizip, úsynystaryn ótkizumen jantalasuda. Aytyp-aytpay adamnyng ekonomika men qoghamnyng damuynyng qozghaushy kýshi jәne sonyng iygiligin kórushi ekendigi aqiqat. Sonday-aq jan sany bir memleketting quaty men әleuetining de ainasy. Adamzattyng býginge deyingi tarihynda, belgili sebepterge baylanysty ghana ishinara jaghdaylar men mezgilderde bolmasa, jan sany az elding tegeuirindi elder sanatyna kirgeni shetin jaghday. Sondyqtan da, ekpinin ýdetken halyq sanynyng azangy, balanyng siyreui men qarttanu ýrdisi Qytaydyng ekonomikasynyng keri ketip, memlekettik quatynyng әlsireuine, qoghamnyng saldanuyna soqtyratyn taghdyrsheshti mәselege ailanyp otyr. Aytpaghymyz, Qytay ekonomikasy órkendep, әskery quaty artyp, әleueti órlep kele jatqan derjava bolghanymen, eldik quattyng eng irgelik ústyny - halqynyng sany túrghysynan qúldyrap kele jatqan memleket.

Paydalynylghan әdebiyetter jәne mәlimetter qaynary:

1. Qytaydyng «Jan sany jylnamalary» (memlekettik statagenttigi)
2. Qytaydyng «ekonomika men qoghamdyq damudyng qorytyndylary» (memstatagenttigni)
3. RenZiping: «Qytaydyng tuu bayanaty», «Qytaydyng nekelesu bayanaty»
4. Qytay statagenttigi, “Heng da”zertteu akademiyasy, “Wang yi”zertteu mekemesi derekteri
5. «tóre sóz emes», «ótken-ketkenderge sholu», «qytay oqymystylary» sayttary
6. LiangJianzhang, RenZiping, XiongChai, ZhouZhi qatarly ekonomister men demograftardyng merzimdik maqalalary

Múqamethan Qonarbay

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