Senbi, 23 Qarasha 2024
5378 7 pikir 2 Shilde, 2021 saghat 13:00

Erdoghanda mýmkindik bar ma?

Týrkiyada eki jyldan keyin saylau. Qazirding ózinde týrik qoghamy búl tarihy manyzy bar oqighagha dayyndalyp jatyr. Áriyne eng aldymen sayasy jәne ekonomikalyq zertteu ortalyqtary týrli saualnamalar ótkizude. Olardyng zertteuleri týrli baghytty qamtidy. Erdoghannyng jetistikteri men kemshilikteri, qay túrghydan algha jylju bar, qazir saylau ótse kimge dauys berer ediniz jәne t.b súraqtargha jauap izdeuge tyrysady. 

Týrkiyany 2002 jyldan beri basqaryp kele jatqan Ádilet jәne Damu partiyasy ótken aida jalpy saylaular ótkizilse, býkil el boyynsha shamamen 25 payyz dauysqa ie bolar edi. Búnday qorytyndyny  AKAM zertteu ortalyghy jýrgizgen saualnamagha sәikes oppozisiyalyq  "Turkish Minute" basylymy keshe jariyalady.

Ótken sәrsenbide AKAM preziydenti Kemal Ozkiraz jariyalaghan zertteu nәtiyjeleri óte qyzyq bolyp shyqqan. Áriyne, búl biylikti synap kele jatqan zertteu ortalyghy bolghandyqtan, onyng nәtiyjelerin jýz payyz shynayylyq dep te qabyldau qatelik bolar edi. Zertteu nәtiyjesine sýiene otyryp mausym aiynda saylau ótkizilgen bolsa, onda Rejep Tayyp Erdoghan preziydenttikke ýmytker boluy mýmkin tórt yqtimal qarsylastarynan da jenilis tabar edi deydi basylym.

"Erdoghannyng saylauda jeniske jetuge mýmkindigi joq, ol qanday ssenariy bolmasyn jenilis tabar edi" deydi Ozkiraz.

Biyliktegi AKP men onyng sayasy odaqtasy "Últshyl Qozghalys Partiyasynan" 2018 ótken jalpy saylauda 53,6 payyz dauys jinaghan "Halyqtyq Aliyans" baghalaghan pikirler aitarlyqtay qúldyrady. Mausym aiynda saylau bolsa Erdoghannyng partiyasy parlamenttik saylauda 25% dauyspen qanaghattansa, Devlet Bahchelining sayasy partiyasy 6%-dy qanjyghagha baylar edi deydi zertteu nәtiyjeleri.

Saualnamada jetekshi oppozisiyalyq Respublikalyq Halyq partiyasy (RPP), onshyl "Jaqsy partiyasy" (İYİ) jәne konservativti "Baqyt partiyasy" (SP) sәikesinshe 22,9%, 12,8% jәne 1,2% dauys alghan.

Basqa oppozisiyalyq sayasy birlestikter kelesi nәtiyjelerdi kórsetti: kýrdterdi qoldaytyn "Halyqtyq demokratiya partiyasy" - 9,4%, búrynghy premier-ministrding orynbasary Aly Babajannyng "Demokratiya jәne serpilis" partiyasy (DEVA) - 3,8%, búrynghy ýkimet basshysy Ahmet Dәuitoghlynyng "Bolashaq partiyasy" (GP)  - 1,7% dauys alar edi dep esepteydi saualnama qorytyndysy.

Saualnama sonday-aq 2023 jylghy saylau 2021 jyldyng mausymynda ótse, onda Erdoghan İYİ basshysy Meral Akshenerden, Kemali Kylychdarogludan, Stambúl meri Ekrem Imamogludan jәne Ankara meri Mansúr Yavashtan jenilis tabar edi dep boljaydy. Dәl osyghan úqsas nauryz aiynda reytingti anyqtau men sayasy kózqarasty bilu maqsatynda úiymdastyrylghan saualnamada Erdoghan partiyasy saylau ótse, 38% dauys alar edi degen qorytyndy jasaghan bolatyn.

Týrkiyada saylau jaqyndaghan sayyn biylik pen oppozisiya arasynda qarama-qayshylyq artyp keledi. Oppozisiya týrik biyligin iri jobalardan, mysaly "Stambúl kanalyn saludan bas tartu kerek" dese, biylik kerisinshe "biz el bolashaghyn oilap otyrmyz, sender aqylgha salmay sóiley beresinder" deumen keledi.

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