Reseyge qatysty bәrimiz sengen 9 anyz joqqa shygharyldy

Ukrainadaghy soghystyng bastalghanyna 5 ay boldy. Osy kezende Reseyge adamzat tarihynda búryn-sondy bolmaghan alapat sanksiyalar salyndy. Alayda RF jayrap qalghan joq, soghysty da toqtatpady, kerisinshe alda «soghys geografiyasyn keneytetinin» jariyalady. Sonda esh әseri bolmaghany ma?

Reseyge qatysty bәrimiz sengen 9 anyz joqqa shygharyldy

Qazirgi kezde Resey propagandasy týgil, batystyq sarapshylardyng ózi RF ekonomikasyna sanksiya esh zalal әkelmegenin, ol ózin jaqsy sezinetinin aita bastady. Múnday baylamdar Yeli uniyversiytetining menedjment professory Djeffry Zonnenfelidti qayran qaldyrypty. Sodan ol әriptesi, Yeli uniyversiytetining zertteu jónindegi diyrektory Stiyven Tianmen birigip, osy taqyrypty terenirek zerttep shyghady. Qorytyndysynda «sanksiyalar RF ekonomikasyna orasan zor núqsan keltirude» degen ýzildi-kesildi toqtamgha keldi.

Amerikalyq ghalymdar reseylik propagandanyng yqpalymen tuyndaghan, biraq shynynda jalghan bolyp tabylatyn 9 anyzdy anyqtady. Ókinishke qaray, Qazaqstanda reseylik ýlesi bar, atap aitqanda «Miyr» siyaqty telearnalardyng baghdarlamalary budjetten qarjylandyrylyp, elimizde mindetti telearnalar toptamasyna kirdi. Sondyqtan búl anyzdargha qazaqstandyqtardyng ýlken bóligi riyasyz senedi. Endeshe olar turaly bile jýrgen paydaly bolsa kerek.

№ 1 anyz. «Batys әlemi jәne onyng seriktesteri bas tartyp jatqan býkil gazdy Qytay quana-quana satyp aluda».

Djeffry Zonnenfelidting baylamynsha, shynynda olay emes: «Soltýstik aghyn-1», «Yamal-Europa», Ukraina arqyly ótetin gaz jelisi siyaqty magistralidar әu bastan kógildir otyndy Europagha satu ýshin jobalanyp salynghan. Al RF Qytaygha gazdy sonsha kóp satpaydy jәne onyng kólemi Euroodaqqa jetkizilimderding 10 payyzdayyn ghana qúraydy. Áriyne, qazirgi kezde QHR-gha baghyttalghan «Sibir quaty» gaz qúbyry shamadan tys jýktelgen. Shyng eli damyghan elder teris ainalghan RF-nyng ózine tәueldi ekenin týsinip, gazdy ýlken jenildikpen aluda. Búghan qosa, Europagha gaz jóneltiletin ken oryndardyng júngho eli ýshin kógildir otyn óndiretin kenoryndaryna qatysy joq. Yaghny Europadaghy naryghynan aiyrylghan gaz oryndarynyng shiykizatyn Qytaygha baghyttau fizikalyq túrghydan mýmkin emes.

Osynyng dәlelindey, «Gazprom» tek osy aida ghana gaz óndirisi 35%-gha qúldyraghanyn habarlady. Osydan keyin Mәskeu oghan gaz óndirisine qatysty derekterdi ashyq jariyalauyna tyiym salyp tastady.

№ 2 anyz: «Batys әlemi jәne onyng seriktesteri bas tartyp jatqan býkil múnaydy Ýndistan men Qytay quana-quana satyp aluda».

Amerikalyq ghalymdar anyqtaghanynday, soghysqa deyingi zamanda da orys múnayynyng eksporty jyl sayyn qúldyraumen bolghan.

RF Federaldyq keden qyzmetining dereginshe, Resey 2020 jyly 238 mln 607 myn, al 2021 jyly 229 mln 998 myng tonnasyn sata alghan. Alayda qara altyn baghasynyng qymbattauy arqasynda tabysy artty: 2020 jyly – 72,4 mlrd, al 2021 jyly 110,1 mlrd dollardy qúrady. Biyl baghanyng sharyqtauy arqasynda 150 milliardqa juyq týsim týsedi dep boljanghan. Biraq kliyentterin joghaltyp jatyr.

2017 jyldan beri reseylik múnaydyng eng iri satyp alushysy Qytay sanalady. Byltyr QHR odan 70,1 mln tonnasyn nemese jalpy kólemning 30,6%-yn 34,9 mlrd dollargha aldy. Ekinshi orynda bolghan Niyderlandy 37,4 mln tonnasyn 17,3 mlrd dollargha, ýshtikke kirgen Germaniya 19,2 mln tonnasyn 9,3 mlrd-qa satyp alghan. Iri kliyentter arasynda Polisha (11,2 mln tonna, $5,4 mlrd), Italiya (8,9 mln tonna, $4,2 mlrd), AQSh (7,4 mln tonna, $3,7 mlrd), Finlyandiya (6,3 mln tonna, $3 mlrd) jәne Slovakiya (5,3 mln tonna, $2,5 mlrd) bar. Osy batystyq memleketter biylghy jyl sonyna deyin orys múnayynan tolyq bas tartuy shart. Embargo iske qosyluda. Aldy bas tartyp ýlgerdi. Osydan-aq Reseydi ne kýtip túrghanyn úghynugha bolady.

Qalyptasqan jaghdaydy paydalanghan Qytay men Ýndistan Mәskeudi ózge tútynushylar at-tonyn ala qashqan Urals markaly múnayyn naryqtyq baghasynan shamamen 30 payyzday jenildikpen satugha mәjbýrleude. Osylaysha, Yuralz markasynyng diskonty 35 dollargha jetti, búrynghy jyldary demping jasaghannyng ózinde spred 5 dollardan aspaytyn.

Onyng ýstine osy eki el de múnay importyn azayta bastapty. Óitkeni reseylik múnay tankerleri jolgha úzaq uaqyt joghaltady. Eger dauyl túrmasa, orys porttarynan Aziya elderine jetkenshe, orta eseppen 35 kýn ketedi. Al irgedegi Europagha satqanda, 2-7 kýnde jetetin edi. Endeshe jol shyghyny artty. Foreign Policy sarapshylary Resey energetikalyq derjava mәrtebesin joghaltuda degen tújyrym jasady.

№ 3 anyz: «RF naryghynan ketken batystyq brendterdi qytaylyq tehnologiyalar onay auystyrady, olardyng joghalghany bayqalmaydy da».

Biraq resmy statistikanyng ózi Qytaydyng Resey naryghyn molyqtyrugha, jútaghan kórshisin qútqarugha asyqpay otyrghanyn anghartty. Soghys bastalghaly QHR Reseyge joghary tehnologiyaly tauarlar importyn kýrt – 2 esege azaytty. Sonyng ishinde qytaylyq smartfondar, noutbukter, kompiuterler, chipter jәne basqasynyng importy 80 payyzgha deyin qúldyraghan. Tapshylyq tuyndaghandyqtan reseylikter onyng bәrin Qazaqstannan satyp әketude.

Qytay RF ýshin AQSh jәne Europamen jýz shayysyp, batys naryghyn joghaltqysy kelmeydi. Újymdyq EO-ny aitpaghanda, Amerika qytay tauarlaryn býkil Resey tútynatyn kólemnen 7 ese kóp satyp alady.

№ 4 anyz: «Sanksiyalar qarapayym reseylikterding ómirine esh yqpal etpedi» dep sarnaydy kýn sayyn propaganda.

Al әleumettik jeli qoqys qoparyp, onyng ishindegige talasyp jatqan reseylikter beynelengen viydeoayghaqtargha toly. Soltýstik kórshide iri supermarketterding artynda kedey adamdar qoldanys merzimi ótip ketken eski tauarlardyng qoqysqa shygharyluyn kýzetetin kórinedi.

Reseylik «Vedomosti» habarlauynsha, RF halqynyng naqty tabystary 2022 jyly rekordtyq 7-7,2%-gha qúlaydy dep baghalanyp otyr. Búl 1999 jyldan bergi eng ýlken kórsetkish. Onda búl kórsetkish 12,3%-gha qúldyrap, rubli birneshe esege qúnsyzdanghan. Sanksiyalar kesirinen RF-daghy inflyasiya 20-23%-gha jetui mýmkin. Qazirding ózinde kedeylik sheginen de tómen jaghdaygha jetken reseylikter sany 21 millionnan asypty. Jyl sonynda qansha million bolatyny belgisiz. RF Ortalyq banki әzirlegen sholuda 2022 jyly 70 million reseylikting tabysy XXI ghasyrdaghy rekordtyq shamagha qúldyraytyny kórsetilgen. Osynsha qayyrshylanghan qalyng nópir azyq izdep, kórshi elderge lap qoysa, ne bolmaq? Osy orayda tayauda RF Ýkimeti kóptegen statistikalyq mәlimetterdi qúpiyalandyryp tastady, el ýreylenbesin degeni bolsa kerek. Tipti Rosaviasiyanyng ózi búdan bylay úshaqpen jolaushylar tasymalynyng statistikasyn jariyalamaytynyn jariya etti.

№ 5 anyz: «Jahandyq biznes shynynda Reseyden ketken joq, tauaryn jasyryn satuda. Biznestin, kapitaldyng jәne talanttardyng Reseyden qashyp jatqany feyk».

Reseylik sarapshylar RF naryghynda bolghan 1400-dey әlemdik brendting jartysynan astamy ketip qalghanyn anyqtady. Qalaghandary ne júmysyn uaqytsha dogharghan, ne reseylik biznesin satugha qoydy. Professor Djeffry Zonnenfelidting dereginshe, jalpy alghanda, RF JIÓ-sining shamamen 40 payyzyn qúraytyn 1 mynnan astam sheteldik kompaniya eldegi qyzmetin dogharghan. Saldarynan investisiya ghalamat qúldyrady. Olardaghy júmysshylar Reseyding barlyq júmys kýshining shamamen 12 payyzyn nemese 5 mln adamdy qúraydy. Onyng 500 myny shetelge ketken. Mysaly, Qazaqstangha aughan reseylikterding sany 300 myngha deyingini qúraydy. Keybir otandyq sarapshy jyl sonyna deyin olardyng sany birneshe milliongha jetui mýmkin dep boljady.

Tipti Mәskeu meri Sobyanin júmys kýshteri shetelge jappay qonys audaryp jatqanyn moyyndady.

№ 6 anyz: «Shiykizat resurstarynyng – birinshi kezekte gaz ben múnay baghasynyng shyghandauy arqasynda RF budjeti ortaymaydy, profisitti bolyp qalady».

Shyn mәninde, qazirden RF budjetinde qarajat jetispeude, sodan Ýkimet biraz salanyng shyghynyn kemitti.

Qarjy ministri Anton Siluanovtyng mәlimdeuinshe, 2022 jyly Resey budjetining tapshylyghy 1,6 trillion rublidi qúraydy. Shiykizat baghasy joghary bolghanymen, sanksiyalar saldarynan RF óz resurstaryn arzangha, jenildikpen satugha jәne tym alysqa tasymaldaugha mәjbýr. Múnyng bәri qyp-qyzyl shyghyn. Sonymen birge Mәskeu basty eksporttyq tauarlarynyng iri tútynushylarynan aiyrylyp jatyr. Halyqaralyq sarapshylardyng payymdauynsha, ager alda jahandyq qara bazarda baghalar qúldyrasa, RF bankrot boluy ghajap emes kórinedi. Sebebi Kremliding әskery shyghyndary alapat qarqynmen úlghayda.

№ 7 anyz: «Putin myrzanyng jyldar boyy jighan jýzdegen milliardtyq qory bar, demek talay jyl kýizelissiz tirshilik ete alady».

Amerikalyq ghalymdar búl tújyrymdy da shyndyq auylynan alys qonghan dep sanaydy. Mәskeu múnay-gazdan týsken 600 milliard dollardan astam tabysty qorda jinady. Soghys bastalghanda, onyng 300 milliardyn Batys búghattap tastady. Býginde Ukraina soghystan qiraghan qalalaryn qalpyne keltiru ýshin onyng bәrin tәrkilep, ózine berudi tabandy týrde talap etude.

Qalghanynyng 130 milliardtan astamy altynda saqtalghan. Al Europalyq odaq әzirlegen sanksiyalardyng jana 7-shi paketi reseylik altyndy satugha jәne satyp alugha tyiym salmaq. Soghys bastalghaly RF óz qorynyng 75 milliardyn shyghyndap ýlgergen. Sonda qalghan 100 milliardtay ghana qor 85 ónirden, avtonomiya men respublikalardan túratyn Reseyge birneshe aigha ghana jetedi.

№ 8 anyz: «Resey rubli – әlemdegi eng myqty valutanyng biri».

Amerikalyq zertteushiler búl – Putinning eng sýiikti propagandistik tezisterining biri ekenine nazar audartty. Shynynda, rubli – is jýzinde konvertasiyalanbaytyn valutagha ainaldy. Rubliding qymbattauyna – kapitaldyng aghymyn jasandy tyng, importtyng alapat kólemde qúlauy, shetelding valutalar qoldanysynyng shektelui siyaqty faktorlar yqpal etti. Tiyisinshe, osy kedergiler joyylsa, rubli baghamy qaytadan qúlaydy, ol 90-shy jyldardaghyday saban aqshagha ainaluy mýmkin. Osynyng kórinisindey, Reseyde qara naryq payda boldy, onda dollar 200, 300 rublige satylady. Myqty valutalardyng qara naryghy bolmaydy. Kenes odaghynda solay boldy. Mәskeu belgilegen bagham boyynsha 1 dollar 60 kopeykagha teng edi, alayda alypsatarlar 1 dollardy 4 rublige – birneshe ese qymbatqa satatyn.

№ 9 anyz: «Reseyge qarsy sanksiyalar әleuetin tauysty, auyr sanksiyalar qalmady, biznesting qashuy toqtady, әri qaray ekonomikagha qysym bolmaydy».

Europalyq odaq eng quatty sanksiyasyn engizuden boyyn aulaq salyp otyr. Ol gaz satyp aluyn toqtatqan joq. Saldarynan, ay sayyn Europa kógildir otyn ýshin Reseyge 700 million euro audarady. Osylaysha, janama jolmen Kremliding soghysyn qarjylandyruda. Biraq újymdyq Europa tayau jyldary reseylik gazdan tolyq bas tartudy josparlady.

Djeffry Zonnenfelid pen Stiyven Tian Batys búghan deyin engizgen sanksiyalar da tolyq kýshine enbegenin eske saldy. Olardyng keybiri boyynsha birneshe ailyq ótpeli kezeng berilgen, búl batystyq kompaniyalar kontragent retinde Reseyden tolyq bas tartyp, basqa seriktes, kliyent ne jetkizushi tauyp ýlgerui ýshen qajet.

Biznesting ketui de tyiylghan joq. Múny RF eksportynyng ay sayyn qúldyrauy pash etedi.

«Mәskeu basqynshylyq niyetinen bas tartpasa, odaqtastar sanksiyalyq qysymyn saqtasa, onda RF-ny Kenes Odaghy siyaqty ekonomikalyq kýireu kýtip túr», – dep týidi Djeffry Zonnenfelid.

Qoryta aitqanda, «reseylik ekonomika quatty», «búrynghy kýshin saqtady», nemese «qalpyna kelude» degen baylamdar shyndyqqa janaspaydy eken. Soltýstik kórshide «tar jol, tayghaq keshti» zaman tuyp keledi. Alpauyt kýirese, ainalasyndaghylargha da zaqym keletini sózsiz. Olay bolsa, Qazaqstannyng eng pessimistik ssenariyler әzirlep, bәrine de dayyn bolghany artyq emes.

Janat Ardaq

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